COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[McLaren]

The whole cruise ship industry is going to be devastated over this. They were already in enough trouble as it was with ships having mechanical difficulties being stranded out at sea and just being floating petri dishes anyway.

I guess the question is when. I checked Carnival out of curiosity, plenty of week long trips around $1000/person.

But, not a cruise person, so maybe that’s cheap?

 

[Joey D]

As @Famine pointed out, a 0.5% infection spread would translate into 247k hospitalisations (with a capacity around 300k)

The bed capacity is much higher than that. It's not in the order of millions, but it is significantly higher than 300,000, although they aren't licensed beds but I believe those laws will be overlooked.

If we end up with 1.5 million hospitalizations in the US it would be a strain on the system but it wouldn't break it. Health systems plan and train for stuff like this all the time, especially when the treatment protocol is similar to someone needing critical care due to Influenza. Between mobile and temporary units, we should be alright. However, if it occurs on the high end of at 7.5 million then we're probably screwed, but I can't imagine any health system anywhere in the world can handle that.

 

[Danoff]

As has been discussed here before, the US and other western nations are not going to lock down cities in the same way as Wuhan has.

Wuhan does appear to have contained the virus (or, at the very least, stemmed the flow of information...) and kept the infection rate at a very low level (0.5%, or about 60,000 cases) - but seasonal flu (which has a comparable level of contagiousness) affects between 3 and 13% of the entire US population every year - if we can expect a similar range for SARS-CoV-2, that means between 6 and 30 times higher infection rates than in Wuhan.

As @Famine pointed out, a 0.5% infection spread would translate into 247k hospitalisations (with a capacity around 300k)... but a flu-like spread (as is being alluded to by Trump and many others) would mean 1.5-7.5 million hospitalisations... even over a whole year that would be a very serious problem.

I agree that it is serious, particularly for the elderly. And I think we're doing them a disservice (and the rest of us) by spreading panic and not providing straightforward information that could really save lives. I saw a number of people 80 or older, and in poor shape, just milling around eating at restaurants this weekend. Those people may not be aware that they're in a fairly precarious state compared to the rest of us (or maybe they are, and they don't care, in which case great).

I'm all for taking reasonable precautions to slow the spread. But what is happening right now is absolutely out of control. My kid's school has strongly implied that they will consider closure if someone in a family of a kid that attends gets tested positive. Are we really helping by forcing people onto vacation to watch children? Pulling people out of work, shutting down travel, and harming productivity?

I get that we might be able to slow the spread, but the damage we'll end up doing can be significantly worse. It's spreading in the US right now, whether we want to admit it or not. We need to shift toward telling the people that are going to be hospitalized that they should stay away, because the contagion is out.

I'm sure the hospitalization demographics look like the mortality demographics - the elderly.

 

[Jezza819]

I guess the question is when. I checked Carnival out of curiosity, plenty of week long trips around $1000/person.

But, not a cruise person, so maybe that’s cheap?

I'm not a cruise person either so I don't know if that is high, low or whatever. I'm probably guessing they're laying pretty low for right now. I don't think I've seen one cruise line commercial in the last week or so.

 

[Dotini]

I think we should switch our tactics completely and start telling people over 60 to stay away from public.

Here in Seattle the health authority is now recommending people over 60 stay home. Ten days ago I adopted this plan. I stopped getting haircuts, massage, physical therapy, fencing, everything. This morning for the first time I stepped out into the North American epicenter for coronavirus for grocery shopping. I wore mask and gloves, and disinfected the shopping cart with a Clorox wipe. I hope to stay put for another ten days. Oh, I do go out for a mid-day walk when there are few people about on the sidewalks and parks.

 

[Danoff]

Here in Seattle the health authority is now recommending people over 60 stay home. Ten days ago I adopted this plan. I stopped getting haircuts, massage, physical therapy, fencing, everything. This morning for the first time I stepped out into the North American epicenter for coronavirus for grocery shopping. I wore mask and gloves, and disinfected the shopping cart with a Clorox wipe. I hope to stay put for another ten days. Oh, I do go out for a mid-day walk when there are few people about on the sidewalks and parks.

The mask probably didn't do you much good, but the gloves were probably a good move (or just avoid touching your face and sanitize after). Amazon and other delivery services could help get groceries without requiring a trip to the store.

Since you're in that high-risk demographic, it's probably a good move to keep a low profile until a vaccine comes out, which could take a while.

 

[baldgye]

And I think we're doing them a disservice (and the rest of us) by spreading panic and not providing straightforward information that could really save lives.

Maybe the US media is different but most media outlets make fairly constant mention that washing your hands, using hand sanitises and refraining from touching your face are the best ways to reduce your risk

 

[Danoff]

Maybe the US media is different but most media outlets make fairly constant mention that washing your hands, using hand sanitises and refraining from touching your face are the best ways to reduce your risk

Specifically explaining that the over 50 crowd represents 95% of all COVID-19 deaths would be a good start. Letting people know that they specifically are the ones at risk.

The mass-panic toilet paper/bottled water/face-mask/nitrile glove buying is not all coming from that demographic. The fist fights in the aisles are not the elderly, and it's keeping some needed supplies from reaching them.

My costco carried no toilet paper this weekend. At this point I needed to stock up to get through the shortage period caused by the fear... forget about the illness itself.

"What's that? A new illness? I better stock up on toilet paper so that I don't run out while people are panicking about the illness they might get"

 

[baldgye]

Specifically explaining that the over 50 crowd represents 95% of all COVID-19 deaths would be a good start. Letting people know that they specifically are the ones at risk.

The mass-panic toilet paper/bottled water/face-mask/nitrile glove buying is not all coming from that demographic. The fist fights in the aisles are not the elderly, and it's keeping some needed supplies from reaching them.

My costco carried no toilet paper this weekend. At this point I needed to stock up to get through the shortage period caused by the fear... forget about the illness itself.

"What's that? A new illness? I better stock up on toilet paper so that I don't run out while people are panicking about the illness they might get"

I mean, I can’t speak to specifics and I’m not sure why toilet paper has become scarse (of all things)... but a lot of the messaging from this side of the pod has been to wash your hands etc, and clearly states that the over 50s with underlying health issues are most at risk.


I think it’s pretty reasonable for people to be worried and panicked to some extent, especially given how drastic yet ineffective the Italian efforts have been to contain the virus.


But again; I don’t think the mortality rate is the real issue. The real concern from what I’ve read and understood is the strain a serious outbreak will have on a health system for that nation. Again looking at Italy is worrying.

 

[Danoff]

I mean, I can’t speak to specifics and I’m not sure why toilet paper has become scarse (of all things)... but a lot of the messaging from this side of the pod has been to wash your hands etc, and clearly states that the over 50s with underlying health issues are most at risk.


I think it’s pretty reasonable for people to be worried and panicked to some extent, especially given how drastic yet ineffective the Italian efforts have been to contain the virus.

People are scared that they're going to die, or scared that they're going to be at home for 3 months straight with their kids and lose their jobs. Most of that is unfounded or unnecessary. If we could get information out to stop the panic, we might be able to save the lives of a few more seniors.

 

[Joey D]

Specifically explaining that the over 50 crowd represents 95% of all COVID-19 deaths would be a good start. Letting people know that they specifically are the ones at risk.

The mass-panic toilet paper/bottled water/face-mask/nitrile glove buying is not all coming from that demographic. The fist fights in the aisles are not the elderly, and it's keeping some needed supplies from reaching them.

My costco carried no toilet paper this weekend. At this point I needed to stock up to get through the shortage period caused by the fear... forget about the illness itself.

"What's that? A new illness? I better stock up on toilet paper so that I don't run out while people are panicking about the illness they might get"

I genuinely don't understand the frenzied buying. The only thing I can think of is that people heard "state of emergency" and had zero understanding of what that meant.

I went to Target yesterday morning like I do every Sunday to buy groceries. The amount of stuff that was completely gone was mind-boggling. Pasta, mac and cheese, coffee, tea, canned veggies, canned fruit, and pretty much all toiletries were sold out. Also, milk, bread, and eggs were gone too, which leads me to believe if people get sick, they're going to sit around making French Toast.

Thankfully, Amazon had most of the stuff I needed, including toilet paper and Kleenex.

Also, if washing your hands is a key way to fight the disease, then buying 80 things of soap so other people can't buy them is counterproductive.

Oh, and I had to go to Home Depot too since I needed garden soil. I also need to clean my concrete patio so I went down the cleaning supply aisle. Everything was just gone including things that won't kill any virus. Masks were also completely gone and there was a lady on the verge of tears because the employee kept telling her they were all gone everywhere across the country.

 

[DesertPenguin]

What's funny is my parents came back from a cruise during President's Week and my dad came down with pneumonia. 3rd time in his life, first two he had to go to the hospital for IV medication and "super drugs" or whatever. Point being it was so serious he went to the hospital.

He got it again, but didn't feel the need for the ER so went to Urgent Care and got prescriptions. A week later and he feels much better. That was too close

 

[baldgye]

People are scared that they're going to die, or scared that they're going to be at home for 3 months straight with their kids and lose their jobs.

I can't speak to the US, but I'm not sure that is true?
At least in the UK and Europe we have employment laws which would prevent people from loosing their jobs due to illness, especially one like this outbreak.

 

[Touring Mars]

I agree that it is serious, particularly for the elderly. And I think we're doing them a disservice (and the rest of us) by spreading panic and not providing straightforward information that could really save lives. I saw a number of people 80 or older, and in poor shape, just milling around eating at restaurants this weekend. Those people may not be aware that they're in a fairly precarious state compared to the rest of us (or maybe they are, and they don't care, in which case great).

I'm all for taking reasonable precautions to slow the spread. But what is happening right now is absolutely out of control. My kid's school has strongly implied that they will consider closure if someone in a family of a kid that attends gets tested positive. Are we really helping by forcing people onto vacation to watch children? Pulling people out of work, shutting down travel, and harming productivity?

I get that we might be able to slow the spread, but the damage we'll end up doing can be significantly worse. It's spreading in the US right now, whether we want to admit it or not. We need to shift toward telling the people that are going to be hospitalized that they should stay away, because the contagion is out.

I'm sure the hospitalization demographics look like the mortality demographics - the elderly.

Trump and the US Government have a tough job - but they are getting it badly wrong IMO.

The trouble is that they need to do two opposing things at the same time - warn vulnerable groups that they must take action now and to take the risk very seriously indeed... while at the same time sending out a different message to everyone else i.e. don't panic, there's no need to take unnecessary precautions.

@Omnis posted an excellent explainer on FB earlier on how epidemics work, and it ended with a brilliant phrase that explains the paradoxical nature of the problem:

If people are sufficiently worried, there's a lot less to worry about. But if no-one is worried, that's when you should worry..."

If not enough people take this seriously, then it is going to be a massive problem. If people do take it seriously, though, the outbreak could be limited.

The question is - how much of an economic hit do you take in order to limit the outbreak. Unfortunately it could well be a case of one or the other, as opposed to best of both worlds outcome of limiting the outbreak and lessening the economic hit at the same time. The worst case scenario is both - a huge and deadly pandemic that ends up crippling the economy in the process. It's possible, but I reckon with the correct information and the right steps taken at the right time, it is possible to avoid a worst-case scenario.

 

[baldgye]

If not enough people take this seriously, then it is going to be a massive problem. If people do take it seriously, though, the outbreak could be limited.

I personally see far more talk within those groups at risk along the lines of "it's just flu" or something along those lines than those panicking. I know that neither of my parents take it seriously and the mention of precautions brings ridicule.

 

[Biggles]

I don't think he could possibly downplay it enough to get people to worry about it too little at this point.

The issue is WHY is he downplaying it? Everything is always about himself.

I mean, I can’t speak to specifics and I’m not sure why toilet paper has become scarse (of all things)... but a lot of the messaging from this side of the pod has been to wash your hands etc, and clearly states that the over 50s with underlying health issues are most at risk.


I think it’s pretty reasonable for people to be worried and panicked to some extent, especially given how drastic yet ineffective the Italian efforts have been to contain the virus.


But again; I don’t think the mortality rate is the real issue. The real concern from what I’ve read and understood is the strain a serious outbreak will have on a health system for that nation. Again looking at Italy is worrying.

My hands are getting chapped from all the hand-washing.

The psychological effect of this is I feel obliged to wash my hands constantly, even when I haven't been out of the house. Also disturbing, I have had mild flu symptoms: occasional dizziness, a slight cough, but no fever, for about 2 weeks. I assume it's some mild flu/cold I caught from my daughter, who caught it from her piano teacher, who caught it from another student of hers, who goes to a school where a number of the students are ... Chinese!

How likely is it that it's Covid-19? Not very. But how would you go about being tested anyway? If it is Covid-19 it's not a good idea to show up at my doctor's office - which is in a clinic full of sick elderly people - & ask for a test, which I'm assuming isn't that readily available. It's possible that one of the Chinese students went back to China for Xmas hols & picked up the virus there, but I would assume it would have shown up in other students at the school by now, & there's no whisper of that ... so far.

 

[Liquid]

One case is now five in Slovakia, including two kids at the school where we have our gaelic football training.

This has officially been confirmed and all students and staff of the school in question are now in self-isolation.

This sort of includes me as well; we train there every Wednesday and after last Wednesday's training session (4th March), the two positive cases were confirmed on Saturday (7th March).

Nothing has been said to us officially, and as someone who is currently unemployed I am pretty much under my own supervision and no-one else's, but I think a lot of our players are now taking this week to stay at home given the circumstance; for us as a club with physical and intimate contact, it's a change in circumstances from simple, common sense prevention given that 10+ of our players were at the school in the last 6 days and 3 of those are staff at the school in question and have potentially been in direct contact with the two patients.

Should I stay at home? I would very much appreciate some counsel.

 

[MatskiMonk]

At least in the UK and Europe we have employment laws which would prevent people from loosing their jobs due to illness, especially one like this outbreak.

I think the real issue is that most people can't live on SSP for very long, even if they get to keep their jobs. I know the first thing that will hit the company I work for, is school closures requiring parents to take time off. We'll literally lose half our staff, and that's on full pay, unless we decide to treat it as unauthorised abscence... we're already buggered thanks to the vacuum left by Brexit contingency, we're unlikely to pay a penny if we don't have to.

 

[Danoff]

I personally see far more talk within those groups at risk along the lines of "it's just flu" or something along those lines than those panicking. I know that neither of my parents take it seriously and the mention of precautions brings ridicule.

Yea, which is why that group needs a megaphone at them, with warnings issued directly to them, if we're going to get them to take their own welfare seriously. And if we don't, we get higher mortality from this.

The issue is WHY is he downplaying it? Everything is always about himself.

I have no doubt that his motives are not pure.

How likely is it that it's Covid-19? Not very. But how would you go about being tested anyway? If it is Covid-19 it's not a good idea to show up at my doctor's office - which is in a clinic full of sick elderly people - & ask for a test, which I'm assuming isn't that readily available. It's possible that one of the Chinese students went back to China for Xmas hols & picked up the virus there, but I would assume it would have shown up in other students at the school by now, & there's no whisper of that ... so far.

From my understanding of your particular demographic, I hope you don't win the GTPlanet internet cookies as the first member to get it.

 

[baldgye]

I think the real issue is that most people can't live on SSP for very long, even if they get to keep their jobs. I know the first thing that will hit the company I work for, is school closures requiring parents to take time off. We'll literally lose half our staff, and that's on full pay, unless we decide to treat it as unauthorised abscence... we're already buggered thanks to the vacuum left by Brexit contingency, we're unlikely to pay a penny if we don't have to.

Yup as the manager of a team myself school closures are my biggest worry. The government has said it will support people who are off sick, but will that apply to people who are home looking after children?
I've tried to get my bosses to allow people to move their holidays around to help cover the time off due to being sick or schools closing, maybe that is something you can suggest at your company?

 

[Danoff]

I can't speak to the US, but I'm not sure that is true?
At least in the UK and Europe we have employment laws which would prevent people from loosing their jobs due to illness, especially one like this outbreak.

It's my assessment of the panic in the US. A lot of people have healthcare tied to their employment too. So if their kids are off school, and they drain their vacation, then they take leave without pay, possibly lose their job, miss rent, get evicted, lose healthcare, and die from COVID-19. That's the pessimistic view of it anyway.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I've tried to get my bosses to allow people to move their holidays around to help cover the time off due to being sick or schools closing, maybe that is something you can suggest at your company?

We're always flexible with holiday, so netting it out before the end of the year isn't so much of a problem - they've all got holiday to take, it's having too many people off in one go, and the impact that'll have, not least on my dwindling sanity ('cus it'll be muggins here trying to keep the wheels turning), but literally on our output, and we cannot afford a drop in cashflow at the moment.

 

[Joey D]

How likely is it that it's Covid-19? Not very. But how would you go about being tested anyway? If it is Covid-19 it's not a good idea to show up at my doctor's office - which is in a clinic full of sick elderly people - & ask for a test, which I'm assuming isn't that readily available.

Does your doctor's office have a hotline you can call? We have one set up here that if you have any symptoms you're supposed to call and they direct you on what to do. Most people are getting a virtual visit while those who meet certain criteria are directed to go to a designated clinic for testing since it's prepared for people with infectious diseases.

 

[baldgye]

not least on my dwindling sanity ('cus it'll be muggins here trying to keep the wheels turning)

You me both mate, also trying to to do it potentially all from home on a laptop....

 

[MatskiMonk]

You me both mate, also trying to to do it potentially all from home on a laptop....

.. and I've just been informed by a colleague has had an e-mail from their kids school, that a group of year 8 kids at the local high school have been in contact with a person with the virus at 'a Rugby match'.

edit: and the 4th death has happened at a local Hospital in Northampton...

 

[Milouse]

it is definitely possible to substantially reduce the risk by sticking to a pre-planned hygiene routine

Sticking. Hygiene. I see what you mean.

 

[Biggles]

From my understanding of your particular demographic, I hope you don't win the GTPlanet internet cookies as the first member to get it.

While I am touched by your concern, realistically, given that I've experienced symptoms for 2 weeks now that remain mild, in fact milder than most bouts of flu I have suffered in the past, I doubt that I am in any danger & I doubt that what I have is Covid-19.

The thing about demographic extrapolations is they are very general. I am very active, fit & athletic, not the doddering, quasi-senile old person pictured by millennials. From what I understand, older people are at greater risk because of underlying health problems that often come with age, rather than age itself, although this is not entirely clear from the generalized media coverage.

 

[Danoff]

While I am touched by your concern, realistically, given that I've experienced symptoms for 2 weeks now that remain mild, in fact milder than most bouts of flu I have suffered in the past, I doubt that I am in any danger & I doubt that what I have is Covid-19.

The thing about demographic extrapolations is they are very general. I am very active, fit & athletic, not the doddering, quasi-senile old person pictured by millennials. From what I understand, older people are at greater risk because of underlying health problems that often come with age, rather than age itself, although this is not entirely clear from the generalized media coverage.

Yea, you can certainly be at one end of the bell curve for your demo. It's unlikely for any of us to have it at this point, but it's not going to stay that way.

 

[Danoff]

https://www.wkbn.com/news/national-world/d-c-priest-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/

"Receive this, the body of COVID-19"
"Amen"

 

[Biggles]

Yea, you can certainly be at one end of the bell curve for your demo. It's unlikely for any of us to have it at this point, but it's not going to stay that way.

But as I say: is age actually a factor, or is it just health? Clearly most of the deaths have been older people, but lots of younger people have died also. Why? Did they have underlying health issues or were they just more susceptible to the virus for reasons not fully understood. The Chinese "whistleblower" doctor who died - was this because of repeated exposure ... or what? Understanding these things would presumably help in fighting the spread.