It usually takes 3 laps for the CPU to run the tires warm, after that they'll start to run consitantly higher times than the first two laps... The CPU puts on the pressure using (5 push) when they need to... If they're up by a mile, they'll usually tune their driving to 3...
If you are behind on the last laps, you can pressure the CPU to run out of line and onto the run offs much like humans do... The reason is because they use the 5 setting when they feel the pressure on... However, when they're using 5, the place where they mess up is pretty predictable unlike human drivers where it can happen on any turn, or even straight...
I once thought they use catch up also, but when I started racing them with b-spec, I found out they needed to wam up tires before running consistant lap times... I then take this lap time and run hot laps with anything in my garage, making sure I can last the # of laps and barely beat them on lap times... This will ensure me at least 125 points in A-Spec... Sometimes it's 150 and above, and since I already know I run faster than them on hot tires, the race is won without a worry...