Does X-Box Have a Chance?

  • Thread starter Magic069
  • 53 comments
  • 1,461 views

Are You Prejudice?

  • Yes, I am sticking with PS and the GT series no matter what.

    Votes: 17 58.6%

  • No, I am open to anything new, and think I will be in line to buy the first XBox.

    Votes: 7 24.1%

  • XBox, PS? Huh? What? Where am I? Oh man, my head hurts.

    Votes: 5 17.2%
  • Total voters
    29
Umm... dude. My friend di a little expiriment about 2 weeks ago. And we used pricewatch.com to find out how much the Xbox parts cost.

NIC=$7
HDD=$37
P3=$46
GPU=$17
M.Board=$23

That's all I can remember off the top of my head. They aren't exact numbers because I don't have the sheet with me right now. But we found out that selling Xbox at $200 they are only losing $20 per Xbox. BUT, that's if they buy the parts individually. They aren't they buy the parts in whole-sale. Resulting in an even lower cost.

And with consumer grade electronics dropping weekly in price, the Xbox is just going to be making more and more profit off of each console as time goes by.
 
Originally posted by Genocide
Umm... dude. My friend di a little expiriment about 2 weeks ago. And we used pricewatch.com to find out how much the Xbox parts cost.

NIC=$7
HDD=$37
P3=$46
GPU=$17
M.Board=$23
And with consumer grade electronics dropping weekly in price, the Xbox is just going to be making more and more profit off of each console as time goes by.
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Yeah - that's great. I note you didn't include software, manufacturing, advertising and transport costs. You also forgot the retailer's margin. In consumer electronics the actual physical bits are the cheapest bit.
 
That wasn't my point. I was saying that it doesn't matter how much they are losing now, they're in it for the long run. Eventually they'll be making a pretty good profit on every Xbox unit sold.
 
Originally posted by Genocide
That wasn't my point. I was saying that it doesn't matter how much they are losing now, they're in it for the long run. Eventually they'll be making a pretty good profit on every Xbox unit sold.
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True enough - but Microsoft's problem at the moment is that Sony and Nintendo are much more able to realise production savings as all the design is done inhouse, not spread across three parties - and in the current market Sony and Nintendo are able to translate these cost reductions into retail price reductions, and thereby inflict further losses on Microsoft as they're forced to cut prices to compete. I've got a few contacts at Intel Australia and they've indicated Mircrosoft are goingto burn between $500 million - $1 billion in the X-Box's first year. That's a lot of copies of Halo. I imagine the shareholders aren't going to be terribly pleased.

So, if MS are going to make a profit out of this thing, they're going to need to be in it for the long haul, particularly when their opposition have an ongoing cost advantage that they have already demonstrated they are willing to use to inflict damage on Microsoft.

On a basic analysis they seem to have made an error on realising economies of scale - something you expect might happen when a software producer turns their hand to software.

No doubt Microsoft will find a way around these issues, but it would appear to be a 6-12 month issue at least, and you can be sure NVidea and Intel aren't going to be sharing MS's pain, so they should be interesting negotiations.
 
What - an article showing Sony selling more than double the number of PS2's to X-Box's for May isn't relevant?

I was a bit surprised at the Gamecube result - lucky they're popular in Japan!
 
Originally posted by vat_man

The story is as follows. The initial lauch price Microsoft had pencilled in was a small profit/break even price per unit (can't remember the figure). Before lauch, Sony unexpectedly dropped the PS2 price and the Gamecube launch price was less than expected. And so, the X-Box was a loss leader right from launch.
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Yes, from what I gather, the cost on the Nvidia GPU was so high, they were looking at a $100 loss per system from the word go. Now, I'm not sure where pricing of the components has gone in the past year (whether it has dropped enough so they aren't taking a bigger hit per unit sold)

Microsoft have not been able to acheive production cost cutting due to there being three manufacturers involved in making an X-Box - Intel, MS and Nvidia. Apparently they are still running pretty close to the same cost per unit they were at launch.
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Oh, I guess this answers my question from before.

Industry rumour is MS will lose between $500 million to $1 billion on the X-Box this year, with no relief in sight.
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There was an interview with an Xbox higher-up where he said they had planned on taking a $900 million loss in the first (2??) years. and had stocked up their warchest for this to happen.
The X-Box is clearly technically superior, but unfortunately consumer electronics lives in a world where profit is king - and that is a real issue at the moment for Microsoft. They've picked a market where the major players are the most successful manufacturer/marketer of consumer electronics ever, and a wily and nimble industry veteran who has seen numerous competitors go bust.
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No question about this. They've got an uphill battle ahead of 'em. But, the flip side to this is, the Xbox is now a new medium that MS can extend its influence to many, many new homes. There's been talk that MS will be bundling the XBox with their digital recorder (like TIVO) as well as their WebTV box to have a "total set-top" solution...
 
Originally posted by ViperConcept


Maybe because they are only $50 or even less.

Xbox is the god of the gaming world. Sony is knocking the pants of of Xbox right now, yes. Also, PS2 has had a year head start on it. Xbox has the most powerful, well, everything about it. Xbox has so many exclusive games that are great. PS2 will not dare slap an "exclusive" sticker on their games because they know there is a chance of big bad Bill going in and buying up the companys. What I am saying is, give Xbox another 1-2 years. It will be where Sony is now. On top of the gaming market. It will be like how Microsoft dominates the PC market. Xbox is my pick of the three. Simplist choice I have made in a while. :)

XBOX will dominate Playstation2 ​
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I think we should have learned from the N64-PSX1 era that graphics dont win a console war.

If x box is going to dominate, how will it do so? At the moment it is 30 million units behind PS2 world wide and selling poorly in Japan. What is going to make it dominate PS2? Exclusive games? PS2 has just as many if not more exclusive games. What else?

By the way, the console sales in Japan are something like this

PS2 50,000
GC 20,000
PSX1 9,000
x box 7,500

Nothing to do with x box 's price, they are just selling bad
 
The Xbox is in a very precarious position in the gaming market right now as far as I see it. It's doing fairly well in the US, but the US market alone will not be enough to ensure it's success in the long term. It needs to have at least some Japanese market support. And so far, this has not happened.
I'm taking a wait and see approach because it's far too early into the console's life to decide that it has already lost the console war to the PS2 and gamecube. That is just pure ignorance.
This holiday (X-mas) will be the true test of which console will gain ground, and which will lose ground. All of the years best software is going to be released from September right up until Christmas and only the console with the "must have" games will succeed.
The Xbox also needs to see a few Japanese style RPG's and other games that appeal to Japanese gamers as well to sell anything over there. So far most of the games have been of US origin, and some from Europe. (Japanese gamers are notorious for only liking home grown products.)
Wait until Christmas, see what's out there, and then dredge this thread up agian. Until then, none of this means anything because we all know how bad the PS2's software lineup was until the fall of the first year. (except GT3)
My money for longevity is on the Gamecube anyway, Nintendo has always supported thier consoles above and beyond the call of duty (even the mess called N64) And with plenty of PS2 ports, and Nintendo only titles there's going to be a long list of great titles over the next few years. I just think it won't have the volume of software that the other 2 consoles will.
 
I think the only reason Xbox is doing as badly as you say it is Earth is because it is a new console. So what if it does not have as many games? It has not been out as long as the PS2 has been. There are so many great games on and coming to Xbox that wont even touch PS2. Ever heard of Project Ego, Doom III, or Splinter Cell? Both will not show up on PS2. Games is what makes a console sell. Right now Xbox has maybe 33 quality games that make it sell. Just keep waiting. I am sure all of you Xbox haters will have your mouths shut. I still feel Xbox will be the dominating conole. Earth, you are for PS2. Tom, you are for GC, and I am for Xbox. Lets all wait a year. We will see who is right.

I dont think it is about being right, I just think it will be an interesting detail between the 3 of us. :)
 
OK ViperConcept we will wait (1 year) and see what happens.

Although it will take a bit longer then that for x box to eclipse the PS2 in sales if it does do so

As for what you said about games PS2 has FF11, GT4, GTA4, Tomb Raider 6, Twisted Metal Black Online, and more that I cant remember now that will not show up on x box or GC.
 
Originally posted by Earth
OK ViperConcept we will wait (1 year) and see what happens.

Although it will take a bit longer then that for x box to eclipse the PS2 in sales if it does do so

As for what you said about games PS2 has FF11, GT4, GTA4, Tomb Raider 6, Twisted Metal Black Online, and more that I cant remember now that will not show up on x box or GC.
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I know that it will not eclipse it. I just feel Xbox will be up on game with PS2. Also, the FF eries never proclaimed exclusiveness to PS2. Theya re just going to make a FFXI installment on PS2 first. As for the GTA series, Xbox is getting GTA3, who is to say it will not get GTA4 either?
 
Originally posted by ViperConcept
Tom, you are for GC, and I am for Xbox.
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Well, not exactly... We all know that the PS2 has done well, and will continue to do so, just because of the sheer number that have already been sold. Game makers have to go where they can make money, and with 15x more consoles sold worldwide, the PS2 is gauranteed success. But in the debate between the Xbox and GC, I think that the Xbox is going to pick up momentum next year and probably lead the following year after that. But that's not gauranteed, as if Xbox sales don't pick up worldwide, it could go the way of several other superior game consoles that didn't have the level of gaming support from 3rd party developers. With Nintendo, you are gauranteed success, as it's always been in their track record to support thier consoles with every they have. Even if noone else is developing games you are gauranteed to see several near perfect games each year. Noone else has ever been able to boast that.
Microsoft has this 'cut their losses and run' mentality that has plagued them throughout their history. If the Xbox become's too much of an economic drain you can bet it's going to be sitting next to my Dreamcast feeling very neglected.
And the last thing that troubles me about the Xbox is it's "Only on Xbox" exclusivity logos. I've got one on Halo, expect that on the PC around christmas. I've got one on Rallisport Challenge, expect that around Christmas as well. And MotoGP, which I already have on my PC as well as Xbox, and let me say that the PC version runs better in 1600x1200 than my Xbox does at TV resolution. And thanks to technology, I and many people I know have begun playing PC games on their TV's. Now when I think about getting Xbox games, I search a little online to see if there's going to be a PC version, because I know it's going to be far superior in every way on the PC.
And lastly, don't add Doom3 to the Xbox lineup, as it's only been speculated as to whether or not it's going to be possible on the Xbox hardware, no matter what ign says. I'd guess X-mas 2003 to early 2004 for the game if Id follows through with it's new "when it's done" mentality, and by that time a 700mghz celeron with a GF3 isn't exactly going to cut the mustard.
What you can look forward to in FPS is Jedi Knight 2, RTCW, Unreal Championship, and Turok Evolution.
 
Well, the Only on Xbox only applies to consoles. The Xbox GPU is equivalent to a GF 3.5. The proccesor speed is better compared to a Mac's than to a PC's, so it's more like a 1.3Ghz Processor.

And the PS2 didn't sell 15x as many as Xbox worldwide. That would be 97,500,000 PS2's worldwide, that's way off. It's more like PS2 shipped 4.6x as many units as Xbox worldwide.
 
Oh, I'm not an X-Box hater (although I'm certainly not a fan of Microsoft) - just pointing out the issues the X-Box faces at the moment. I'm sure MS have significant long term plans for the X-Box (which sound pretty similar to Sony's plans for the PS2) but at the moment the X-Box is facing an uphill - not because of technical superiority (well, indirectly it is, I suppose) but because of what appears to have been a few design errors on Microsoft's part.

I guess we'll find out how deep MS's pockets are on this one.
 
Originally posted by Genocide
Well, the Only on Xbox only applies to consoles. The Xbox GPU is equivalent to a GF 3.5. The proccesor speed is better compared to a Mac's than to a PC's, so it's more like a 1.3Ghz Processor.

And the PS2 didn't sell 15x as many as Xbox worldwide. That would be 97,500,000 PS2's worldwide, that's way off. It's more like PS2 shipped 4.6x as many units as Xbox worldwide.
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Sorry, I thought it was 30 million Ps2's to 2 million Xbox' (Last time I saw stats it was, but MS' stat is a few months old.)

And a Celeron 700 Mghz is in no way equivilent to anything higher, it's Intel Bargain basement processor. If anything it's equal is a 600 megahert P3 which falls well below a Mac's performance of equal speed.

Don't mistake me for a fanboy as I have all 3. I'm more of a realist as I get older, and I tend to get whatever catches my fancy these days. I'm indifferent as to who wins the 'war,' as long as I get to play some sweet software along the way.
 
Ok... The Xbox CPU is a P3 733MHz.
Apparently, when it comes to consoles, the CPU doesn't matter that much. The CPU doesn't really play a big role in how good a console is. The main factor is the GPU... and the Xbox GPU (an Nvidea GForce 3.5) is by far the best of any console.
 
I quite like project gotham racing and various other games but for me I know its not gonna be enough besides I think my table she cannot take no more weight cap'ain shes gonna blow
 
X box is selling about the same as dreamcast or in some cases worst and what happened to dream cast? It died
 

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