Europe - The Official Thread

I've never trusted a newspaper in my life. And I don't trust politicians either, even the ones I like.

All this mistrust.. it instills a lack of confidence; something else which was a key factor in the global crisis. My business teacher once tried to explain how a lack of confidence was the key factor in this whole farcial shambles. He's half right. Confidence, or a lack thereof, was a factor, but not the main one. It was a catalyst that basically served as a self-fufilling prophecy. People thought things were going to go bad, so things went bad. Obviously things were bad, but the lack of confidence in the markets and politicians sped the process up. It would have developed slower if people still believed in the markets.

Now, obviously it's not the absolute solution but I would not underestimate the power of confidence in this case. Think of it as an economic placebo effect; people believe the markets will become stronger, and they slowly will. But regenerating that confidece? That is the question. Our heads of government aren't doing much to fix this.

If you keep following that line of thought, you might come to the conclusion that one cannot do anything to "help confidence". "Confidence" in this sense is effectively other people's opinion on your decisions. Seeing as the government can't control that, I don't really see it as a goal. Or rather, its a rather straight-forward thought process. Government makes good decision = increased confidence. Government makes bad decision = decreased confidence.

Its a side-effect of whatever action anyone takes. Lets put it this way, no one takes decisions that they know "harm confidence". So in the same vein, no one takes a decision simply with the goal to "help confidence".

Asking the government(s) to restore confidence is like asking them to make people happy. They are obviously trying to do that.

There are certain things governments can do to inspire trading in the markets, but its not something you can easily control.
 
If you keep following that line of thought, you might come to the conclusion that one cannot do anything to "help confidence". "Confidence" in this sense is effectively other people's opinion on your decisions. Seeing as the government can't control that, I don't really see it as a goal. Or rather, its a rather straight-forward thought process. Government makes good decision = increased confidence. Government makes bad decision = decreased confidence.

Its a side-effect of whatever action anyone takes. Lets put it this way, no one takes decisions that they know "harm confidence". So in the same vein, no one takes a decision simply with the goal to "help confidence".

Asking the government(s) to restore confidence is like asking them to make people happy. They are obviously trying to do that.

I agree completely. I stated that confidence is not a major influence, but that it is something that is worth considering. However it is generated, confidence can sometimes function as a placebo effect in economics.

But we take the example of "We need to make massive savings and cuts". That is what is going to help the markets, make things better, but a significant amount of people will lose confidence because the cuts/savings will affect them personally. It's a case of it, the cuts/savings, being for the greater good. Even if certain governments relish in cutting public expenditure, but what the Tories want/like doing is a different matter and I won't even passively mention it. Much. The point I was trying to make, is that while, as you pointed out, confidence is based on someone's interpretation of someone else's actions it is not something to be snuffed at. If there is confidence in the market for whatever reason, then the market will grow once more. It served as a catalyst in the downfall, so there's no reason why it can't be a participant in the rebuilding process. People will be upset and aggrieved at what has happened and what will happen, and the mistrust, bitterness and resentment being thrown about is something that will dictate how long the re-building process takes.

There isn't one single thing that will fix things and make everything better. It's a combination of lots of things; cutting back on governmental expenditure, pressurising tax dodgers more, assuring that countries do not default on their loans which almost certainly will require a bail out, a great reconsideration about fiscal and monetary policy on national levels and how each country evaluates and manages them, reconsideration of banking regulations, reconsideration of how deep the continental 'togetherness' goes (I mentioned in a previous post that co-operation is a good idea, but assimilation is a bad one) and well, I have no idea if or how this will happen but there needs to be a proper, proper shake up amongst the richer, top percentages. It's easy to scream elitism, but who props up the economy and who pays the penalty? Difficult questions to answer at times, but in basic terms I think if Joe Bloggs has X% change in his income or cash in hand, it's more than acceptable that Cecil Featherstonehaugh St. John-Smythe should make a fair 'contribution' too.
 
^Yes. I read it too. I've been saying that since the beginning of the crisis.
In other news, German Manager magazin asked 300 high manager about Greece.
56% want Greece out of the Euro.
Siemens boss even goes futher and says Greece need to quit Euro and EU!
 
Greece has been an economic experiment of what? How long you can avoid going to work before everybody goes broke?
 
Things are going from bad to worse. I think nobody in EU Governments and institutions now realistically believes Greece will avoid a disorderly default (and exclusion from the Euro).
 
Things are going from bad to worse. I think nobody in EU Governments and institutions now realistically believes Greece will avoid a disorderly default (and exclusion from the Euro).

If not, what hope is there for the others?

Earlier in this topic some were saying that Greece was the easy one to deal with.
 
Sarkozy defeated by left wing'ish Hollande for the French presidency.

I wonder what this will mean for the French, other EZ nations, the Euro, and the markets with Hollande's plan for more growth and less austerity plan?

To make matters even more interesting, it appears that those political parties that favoured austerity in Greece are also about to get a huge kicking in today's general election.
 
To make matters even more interesting, it appears that those political parties that favoured austerity in Greece are also about to get a huge kicking in today's general election.
That's just the Greeks doing what they do best, driving their society to complete failure.
 
Sarkozy defeated by left wing'ish Hollande for the French presidency.

I wonder what this will mean for the French, other EZ nations, the Euro, and the markets with Hollande's plan for more growth and less austerity plan?

To make matters even more interesting, it appears that those political parties that favoured austerity in Greece are also about to get a huge kicking in today's general election.


There's a "now what?" tone in every commentator in every channel, from every country (european I mean).

I guess no one really knows what's next.




EDIT -

The Macedons started it.

I think all this mess started out in the USA, (French language link, English language link) but maybe the guys in charge over there were all macedonian-americans?

:D
 
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There's a "now what?" tone in every commentator in every channel, from every country (european I mean).

I guess no one really knows what's next.

Wouldn't the expectation be that Hollande would forego austerity and attempt some kind of growth strategy in order to sustain socialism in France? Wouldn't he also be more anti-immigration for the same reason?

Respectfully,
Steve
 
I'm not an expert, far from it, but any "growth" policy needs a strong backer to support it. I don't think the "Eurozone" has it.

One could also argue that a "growth" policy, like what the eurozone experienced in the nineties (with the "Delors" plans, named after the European Commission President, Jacques Delors) is what created a false feeling of wealth, unsupported in productivity, and led to many wrong decisions (and corruption in some cases). The money was spent, and nothing really lasting came off of it.

But I don't really know enough to debate these things with any kind of depth.
 
Well, I'm parachuting into this thread :lol: but I'd say that the general "what now", might be translated into pretty much the same current situation in the first few months. Hollande has already stated the intention to travel immediately to Berlin and that might indicate that no major shock or reform concerning French relations with the Eurozone might occur in the very near term, well, at least that's my educated guess...

If Merkel is flexible enough, the good neighborhood policy with the Germans might remain unscathed by the change in the Élyséé. As an outside observer, that would sound like a good start to me.
 
Sarkozy defeated by left wing'ish Hollande for the French presidency.

I wonder what this will mean for the French, other EZ nations, the Euro, and the markets with Hollande's plan for more growth and less austerity plan?

To make matters even more interesting, it appears that those political parties that favoured austerity in Greece are also about to get a huge kicking in today's general election.

The poo has been stockpiled, and now the fan has been cranked up to max power.

I reckon that this is the turning point where the Eurozone project starts to face reality - a reality where the people have a greater say in what happens than the technocrats who have assumed control over the last couple of years. It could get very messy.

The only hope for Merkel and for the austerity drive that Germany insists on sticking to is that Hollande is not as anti-austerity as he might appear. Indeed, he is not anti-austerity per se, but rather he is more focused on avoiding austerity measures that stifle growth - atleast he recognises the need to deal with the debt as well as generating growth.

And the French election is just the beginning - we now have neo-Nazis in the Greek parliament (that'll help :rolleyes:).
 
Don't forget that the neo-Nazis are already in the national German parliament and in the regional parliaments.
 
The poo has been stockpiled, and now the fan has been cranked up to max power.

I reckon that this is the turning point where the Eurozone project starts to face reality - a reality where the people have a greater say in what happens than the technocrats who have assumed control over the last couple of years. It could get very messy.

I believe the fan will go to max power once reality becomes clear and the people (pointing at Greece for now) start to understand that no matter who they vote into power there is very little they can do because they no longer govern themselves economically. The techncrats will simply resume control again if the people vote for someone that promises something different to what they have now.
 
Don't forget that the neo-Nazis are already in the national German parliament and in the regional parliaments.

Germany has 16 states and the neo-Nazis are in in ONE STATE parliament (3rd smallest, economically and politically irrelevant rural state with only 1.7 mio inhabitants) and they have 6% of the votes there. We are talking about roughly 60.000 voters. And they have some influence in some small towns and villages, again in underdeveloped rural areas.
Their influence on a national level is zero, they are NOT in the national parliament. So all together hardly worth mentioning in my opinion.
 
Germany has 16 states and the neo-Nazis are in in ONE STATE parliament

Fair enough, but I was sure that it was more. I know for a fact that they're in Saxony too.

(3rd smallest, economically and politically irrelevant rural state with only 1.7 mio inhabitants) and they have 6% of the votes there.

Yeah, MeckPomm is the Bundesland where I live, and the attitudes of their supporters are disgusting. Nice to see you care about your fellow countrymen though. NPD supporters are entitled to them, but NPD's stances aren't the sort of ideologies I like.

6% of the votes is misleading; only 52% of the MeckPomm population voted in the 2011 elections. They have 6% of that 52%. Many of the apathetic voters who don't take an actual interest in politics blindly agree with what the NPD has to say.

We are talking about roughly 60.000 voters. And they have some influence in some small towns and villages, again in underdeveloped rural areas.
Their influence on a national level is zero, they are NOT in the national parliament. So all together hardly worth mentioning in my opinion.

So does that mean that their votes and opinions are worth less than the votes of others?
 
Fair enough, but I was sure that it was more. I know for a fact that they're in Saxony too.
Yes, they are. I checked a list on wikipedia before I posted, just to make sure that I didn't forget a state and overlooked Saxony because the election was in 2009. If you look an the numbers though, the NPD (neo nazi party) lost almost half of their votes from 2004, almost missing the 5% minimum requirement for joining a state or the national parliament. So they might be out of that parliament next time...


Yeah, MeckPomm is the Bundesland where I live, and the attitudes of their supporters are disgusting. Nice to see you care about your fellow countrymen though. NPD supporters are entitled to them, but NPD's stances aren't the sort of ideologies I like.
That state has a lot of economical problems, that's why the NPD is strong there.

6% of the votes is misleading; only 52% of the MeckPomm population voted in the 2011 elections. They have 6% of that 52%. Many of the apathetic voters who don't take an actual interest in politics blindly agree with what the NPD has to say.
Yep, already counted that in. 1.7 mio people, I guessed that the voters' rate was at about 60% and that would be around 1 million voters, 60k votes being 6% of that.
But of course you are right, I guess every country has a certain potential for extreme political views, leftwing or rightwing. That doesn't always manifest in voting behaviour. Racism/nationalism certainly is an issue in every part of Germany to a certain degree. But I guess there is no country on this planet without such problems.




So does that mean that their votes and opinions are worth less than the votes of others?

Well, not in a moral way. But fact is, that decisions in Germany are made elsewhere, not in underdeveloped rural areas with high unemployment. People there are frustrated. Those people often vote for extremist parties, you'll find the same views in similiar areas in the UK, the USA and elsewhere.

You know I have no problem with Mecklenburg Vorpommern (MW), but fact is, we have several cities in Germany with a higher GDP than the whole state of MV, they are on last place on GDP per person in Germany, in total they are only beating the state of Bremen, which is a city and the Saarland which has about 1 mio inhabitants. In total, MV generates 34 out of Germany's 2423 billion EUR GDP.

Your post sounded like neo nazis have a voice in Germans parliaments and are therefor a part in decision making. That is simply not true. Neo nazis in Germany represent a small fracture of a uneducated, mostly unemployed and frustrated minority and have nothing to say in this country. The economical and political powers are in the western and southern parts of Germany, and neo nazi parties usually don't even get 1% of the votes there or don't even exist (aside from local organisations).

Anyway, the development in Greece is understandable but problematic. We'll have to see, if a working parliament is possible with those results. If not, a re-election icertainly is an option.
 
The Greece elections. Get ready for the Greeks to leave the Eurozone. All the pro Euro parties got kicked in the behind. Even extreme right got 7 or 8% of the votes.
 
What I found hypocritical was the headline of today's Irish Daily Mail. Even though any time it's mentioned Irish austerity it has screamed its opposition, it has already began scaremongering against Hollande. :rolleyes:
 
FFS Europe (a.k.a Germany) needs to cut Greece loose and stop them from continuing to inflict cruel and unusual punishment on every stock exchange in the world. They've been given enough time and chances, let them suffocate on their own failure. I've had enough of this crap.
 
I don't think you understand. For Germany to cut Greece loose it has to give up one arm too. The german banks will fall harder than Greece. Do you really think Greece is the problem? Think again, German banks are.
 
When small countries owe money to larger countries, that's when they get invaded for their assets. Did Germany set this up on purpose?
 
Nope, they were just smoking subprime joints. FAN-TAS-TIC interest rates, dude ...

(not that the german bankers say "dude", they're a lot closer to the "other" Jeff Lebowski).
 
I find it funny that Germany, once the über powerhouse on the fields of battle, is going to pretty much dominate Europe via economic means.
 
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