Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Imari]

I wonder how much the replication/reproducibility crisis affects the science on both sides regarding global warming/climate change...

"More than 70% of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments, and more than half have failed to reproduce their own experiments. Those are some of the telling figures that emerged from Nature's survey of 1,576 researchers who took a brief online questionnaire on reproducibility in research." Source.

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Earth & Environment has a failure rate of between 40 to 65%.

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I can only imagine that either these people are very early career or are simply not bothering to replicate their own work if <60% of them have experienced the failure to reproduce an experiment. Just statistical weirdness and good old fashioned human f:censored:ups will throw a failure to replicate at even the most diligent scientist.

If someone tells me that they've never failed at something, I get suspicious. If someone tells me that this thing is their profession and they've been doing it for years and still never failing, I'll say that they're either a liar or so incompetent that they're unable to see how they're failing.

 

[Barra333]

I wonder how much the replication/reproducibility crisis affects the science on both sides regarding global warming/climate change...

"More than 70% of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments, and more than half have failed to reproduce their own experiments. Those are some of the telling figures that emerged from Nature's survey of 1,576 researchers who took a brief online questionnaire on reproducibility in research." Source.

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Earth & Environment has a failure rate of between 40 to 65%.

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I don't think the difficulty in reproducing results is a big deal in the context of the climate change discussion - there are so many research groups out there that have come to exactly the same conclusions about the direction we are going and the causes of it that being able to reproduce a single study is not really relevant. Also, any measurements of 'today' anything is going to show slight variances - the samples collected are unique to a time and set of conditions (weather etc). I think the historical data is mostly agreed on, primarily from a (huge) series of ice and sediment cores collected by a whole bunch of different people.

Without wanting to veer too far from the purpose of the thread, reproducibililty is pretty tough to report. As your source more or less states, funding agencies generally give grants to perform new and innovative research, not copy what has been done before. Similarly, journals are notorious for rejecting work that is not 'novel enough', more often than not referencing some other paper and stating something like 'see, its been done before'. That is hardly going to motivate people to spend precious research money on reproducing someone elses work, given that the currency in academia is publications. Even if you do want to reproduce someone else's experiment, a good chunk of the time the methods in the previous publication are too bare bones to even try, and in my opinion it gets worse as you get into higher tier journals (PNAS, Nature, Science come to mind). This may be improving as more and more articles come with extensive supplementary methods and data though.

 

[Danoff]

Well you heard it here first, 12 years ago. The "grand solar minimum" is starting to look ever more like a reality.
https://in.mashable.com/science/110...i-ice-age-as-a-solar-minimum-grips-the-planet
https://newslanded.com/2020/02/04/mini-ice-age-2020-solar-minimum/

Is Earth facing a global warming crisis or mini ice age? According to Professor Owens of Reading University, “The small reduction in the Sun’s energy associated with a solar minimum is vastly offset by effects caused by human activity, such as CO2 in the atmosphere.” He also told The Sun that it is unlikely that global climate will be affected in a detectable way. The effects Maunder Minimum was also influenced by multiple large-scale volcanic eruptions that brought down the temperatures. The Grand Solar Minimum was not the only factor affecting global climate during that time.

Ah well. At least it's a downward pressure of some kind.

 

[Dotini]

Is Earth facing a global warming crisis or mini ice age? According to Professor Owens of Reading University, “The small reduction in the Sun’s energy associated with a solar minimum is vastly offset by effects caused by human activity, such as CO2 in the atmosphere.” He also told The Sun that it is unlikely that global climate will be affected in a detectable way. The effects Maunder Minimum was also influenced by multiple large-scale volcanic eruptions that brought down the temperatures. The Grand Solar Minimum was not the only factor affecting global climate during that time.

IMO, the tiny reduction in solar insolation is not the driving factor in mini ice ages. Rather it is big changes in the Sun's magnetic field (and the Earth's) and the associated consequences.

IMO, the grand solar minimum has been rescheduled, not for the current solar cycle, but for the next one.

 

[Exorcet]

I don't have much to add on solar cycles, but I recently ran into the concept of GMO's designed to combat climate change. It sounds like a really good idea and I'm not sure why it never came to me before. Plants are already able to remove gases from the atmosphere, so why not make them ever better at it?

https://www.genengnews.com/topics/o...natural-destination-for-an-unnatural-pathway/

It's another plus for GMO's, better food and now the potential of a better atmosphere too.

 

[Danoff]

I don't have much to add on solar cycles, but I recently ran into the concept of GMO's designed to combat climate change. It sounds like a really good idea and I'm not sure why it never came to me before. Plants are already able to remove gases from the atmosphere, so why not make them ever better at it?

https://www.genengnews.com/topics/o...natural-destination-for-an-unnatural-pathway/

It's another plus for GMO's, better food and now the potential of a better atmosphere too.

Works for nuclear waste too:

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...ting-bacteria-could-make-nuclear-waste-safer/

 

[andrea]

I've seen bunch of news stories about the reduction in air pollution because of global shutdown. Will this fresh air breathe any life into fighting climate change once we get out of this mess?

 

[Dotini]

I've seen bunch of news stories about the reduction in air pollution because of global shutdown. Will this fresh air breathe any life into fighting climate change once we get out of this mess?

It's a good question, but without a clear answer, IMHO.
If viruses and pandemics can be scientifically proven tied to climate, then hopefully yes.
If mitigating or controlling climate change is tied to money, finance and diverting resources, then maybe there are now more problems to solve.

 

[Thematic]

A lot of people have now learned to work from home. I realize it's not for everyone, but it offers a good way to both reduce emissions and to change perspectives.

 

[DK]

I've seen bunch of news stories about the reduction in air pollution because of global shutdown. Will this fresh air breathe any life into fighting climate change once we get out of this mess?

My inner doomer says the shutdown is going to be a useful strawman for Ben Shapiro types, like, "Oh, you want to save the environment? You want to shut everything down just like with the coronavirus you eco-SJW!"

 

[Danoff]

My inner doomer says the shutdown is going to be a useful strawman for Ben Shapiro types, like, "Oh, you want to save the environment? You want to shut everything down just like with the coronavirus you eco-SJW!"

Well I think it's something for proponents of drastic action to cut pollution to think seriously about. Here's what you can do... look what it costs. It's an extremely useful experiment in the climate change arena.

 

[andrea]

Hopefully seeing this kind of radical transformation will give some conservatives pause of just turning it all back on and ruining this pristine moment.

 

[Famine]

Hopefully seeing this kind of radical transformation will give some conservatives pause of just turning it all back on and ruining this pristine moment.

In CO2 terms, there hasn't been one:

Though perhaps there just hasn't been one yet.

 

[Dotini]

Controversial new documentary from Michael Moore.
His blurb:
Michael Moore presents Planet of the Humans, a documentary that dares to say what no one else will this Earth Day — that we are losing the battle to stop climate change on planet earth because we are following leaders who have taken us down the wrong road — selling out the green movement to wealthy interests and corporate America. This film is the wake-up call to the reality we are afraid to face: that in the midst of a human-caused extinction event, the environmental movement’s answer is to push for techno-fixes and band-aids. It's too little, too late.

 

[DesertPenguin]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Humans#Factual_accuracy

 

[Dotini]

IMHO an under-appreciated factor in climate change is the Earth's changing magnetic field. Researchers are only beginning to better understand magnetic pole shifts and excursions that have taken place in recent geologic time and also apparently right now. The weakening of Earth's magnetic field over the past 100 years is said to now be accelerating at a rate 10x faster than in the recent past.

The following video discusses aerial light phenomena recently seen over Leicester, UK and Yucatan, Mexico which resemble sprites seen very briefly and very high in or above most of the atmosphere, except the phenomena seen in the video appear to last much longer and display at a much lower altitudes than do known sprites. The author of the video thinks these may not be sprites, but I do think so. Because of changes in the magnetic field. In just the last 4 years, close to a 20% increase in hazardous cosmic rays penetrating to Earth's surface has been documented.

Only yesterday the Northern Lights were seen from Seattle. In the past, this has been practically unheard of, but is increasing seen recently here. To me, this is interesting additional anecdotal evidence that spaceweather is getting closer and closer to the surface.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I'm not sure California can get much worse and still be inhabitable in the wilderness regions. The fires this week have basically exhausted the state's fire fighting resources and the strategy has shifted to advanced evacuation notices rather than fire containment.

Curious to know whether our members in the mountain west & southwestern desert regions can see or smell smoke in their areas. @Danoff @Joey D @R1600Turbo

Thankfully there is a persistent west wind, otherwise I'd be completely swallowed up. Even still visibility is less than a mile and I'm running my air purifier at max 24/7. It's gotten so bad I've been forced to wear an N95 mask inside my house. Sacramento must be totally unbearable right now. It's a weird feeling to know there is basically nowhere I can go to get away from it and no reasonable protection from the threat should the winds shift unfavorably...it's just all around, there is no respite and the Calvary isn't coming.

 

[Joey D]

Curious to know whether our members in the mountain west & southwestern desert regions can see or smell smoke in their areas. @Danoff @Joey D @R1600Turbo

It's pretty bad here in the Salt Lake Valley:

The air here is typically pretty poor, but this smoke is making it truly awful. Yesterday we saw the air quality index hit near 180, which firmly places it in the "unhealthy for everybody" category. It's a little better today hovering right around 120. The ozone is also pretty bad with ranging between .070 and .1 ppm.

Thankfully, after a bad start to summer, the wildfires in Utah haven't been as bad as everyone thought. July 4th really hurt us because of idiots lighting off fireworks, but since then, it hasn't been too bad with only a handful of fires popping up.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Curious to know whether our members in the mountain west & southwestern desert regions can see or smell smoke in their areas.

It's been fairly smoggy here anyway due to not having rain for a LONG time. So if there is, I haven't noticed.

 

[Dotini]

I'm not sure California can get much worse and still be inhabitable in the wilderness regions. The fires this week have basically exhausted the state's fire fighting resources and the strategy has shifted to advanced evacuation notices rather than fire containment.

Curious to know whether our members in the mountain west & southwestern desert regions can see or smell smoke in their areas. @Danoff @Joey D @R1600Turbo

Thankfully there is a persistent west wind, otherwise I'd be completely swallowed up. Even still visibility is less than a mile and I'm running my air purifier at max 24/7. It's gotten so bad I've been forced to wear an N95 mask inside my house. Sacramento must be totally unbearable right now. It's a weird feeling to know there is basically nowhere I can go to get away from it and no reasonable protection from the threat should the winds shift unfavorably...it's just all around, there is no respite and the Calvary isn't coming.

Teams of firefighters are on their way from western Washington to assist down there. It sounds very bad. Combined with power outages, it must be frustrating.

Here, in western Washington, we have suffered unprecedented smoke in the summer months of the past three years running. This year there has not been a whiff, except for the last two days. Our governor has declared a statewide fire emergency due to fires in eastern Washington. The fires in Canada don't seem so bad this year.

Intense thunder and lightning storms appear to have played a role in the California fires. Maybe others too.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

AQI is chilling at PM2.5 400 this morning here in Marin. Just imagine sitting 3 feet away from a campfire, that's what it's like right now.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Went on flight tracker to see if there was any activity. Indeed there is, the woodward fire is closest to me, and it looks like there are 3 super-scooper airplanes and 2 helicopters fighting the fire at the moment.

 

[Joey D]

Even though they only fly when things are going bad, I really do like watching those air tankers fly. A couple of months back when an entire mountain was on fire here, we made a family outing to go sit in the car by the lake and watch Blackhawks scoop up water. They were also scooping water out of a water feature in some high-end subdivision too. It was cool to see and those pilots are badasses with giant brass cojones.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Agreed. And THANK YOU CANADA.

 

[Dotini]

Satellite assist in fire-fighting technology.

 

[Joey D]

Mmmm, toxic air. @Eunos_Cosmo and @Danoff looks like you're both right up there too.

 

[UKMikey]

Mmmm, toxic air. @Eunos_Cosmo and @Danoff looks like you're both right up there too.

Wow, it looks like LA has really cleaned up its act in recent years if they're only 35th.

 

[Danoff]

Mmmm, toxic air. @Eunos_Cosmo and @Danoff looks like you're both right up there too.

Just checked it. Denver currently has a "1" as US AQI and is listed 96th. I guess it spiked yesterday from that forest fire. Edit: Salt Lake is also "1".

My patio is still covered in bits of tree and ash that were snowing over the weekend.

 

[Barra333]

Mmmm, toxic air. @Eunos_Cosmo and @Danoff looks like you're both right up there too.

For short term spikes, that is is not too bad. If it is normal day (ie. all of the non-US entries there), then not so much.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Blade runner skies are continuing here for the 4th (?) straight week? Ugh. Thankfully the fire immediately choking my city has been almost fully contained. The ones on the east side of the state are enormous. 2 million acres just this year...incredible especially when you think prime fire season has really only just started. Poor Sacramento just gets walloped by everything. The unique geography of CA creates, basically, an enormous smoke basin roughly centered on Sac. Not only that but the Sierra mountains stall out the coastal air which keeps San Francisco so cool. So it's just baking it horrible air. Saw it was over 110F there this weekend....

I should just move to Vegas.