- 10,081
- WFG9
Breaking News
Three in a row for Schumacher?
Michael Schumacher is being tipped for an Australian GP hat-trick next March
25/11/01
Michael Schumacher is shooting for a third successive Melbourne victory at the 2002 Foster's Australian Grand Prix - and the Ferrari superstar has a 31.1 per cent chance of achieving it, according to the sports statistics unit at the city's Swinburne University.
That's twice as good a chance as any other driver in the race, Swinburne mathematicians Jonathan Lowe and Stephen Clarke say, with McLaren's David Coulthard the next best hope at 14.5 per cent.
Schumacher is a better than 60 per cent chance of a podium finish (top three) at Albert Park on March 3, while his chances of finishing in the top six are almost 76 per cent.
Swinburne has already run the Grand Prix more than 20,000 times in computer simulations, representing more than 1.16 million laps and more than 6.15 million kilometres around the Albert Park circuit! It has also simulated the entire 2002 F1 world championship season more than 1,000 times - and found Schumacher to be a 72.8 per cent chance to win the crown again.
If the mathematicians are right, that will be the German's fifth world title, equaling the record of the legendary Juan-Manuel Fangio.
Schumacher has already won more GPs (53) than any other driver in F1 history and scored more world championship points (801).
Coulthard is given the second best chance of becoming world champion next season by Swinburne - at 10.5 per cent.
The simulations found that Ferrari has almost an 80 per cent chance of taking the constructors' title next year, with McLaren and Williams the only other teams that could topple the Italian stable.
Apart from Schumacher and Coulthard, only two other drivers are given more than a 10 per cent chance of winning the Foster's Australian Grand Prix. They are Ralf Schumacher in the Williams team and Rubens Barrichello in the second Ferrari, while they rate McLaren's new driver, Kimi Raikkonen a star on his F1 debut in Melbourne this year with the Sauber team - a 9.4 per cent chance of victory at Albert Park in 2002.
They rate the other Williams driver, Juan Pablo Montoya, only a 6.7 per cent chance of winning in Melbourne in March - and a 39.5 per cent chance of not finishing.
However, the mathematicians emphasise that these predictions are based solely on past performance and cannot take account of any likely improvement by drivers as they gain experience, of any improvements in new-model cars for 2002, or pre-season testing form.
They give Raikkonen a 30.2 per cent chance (the fifth best) of a podium finish at his first race for McLaren, and almost a 58 per cent chance of finishing in the top six and repeating the world championship point he scored in Melbourne in 2001 at his first GP.
They rate Olivier Panis' hopes in Melbourne ahead of his British American Racing teammate and 1997 world champion Jacques Villeneuve.
They give 11 of the drivers in the field less than a 1 per cent chance of winning, but Jordan's Japanese rookie Takuma Sato and Sauber newcomer Felipe Massa better chances than that.
Sato has the same chance as Jaguar's Eddie Irvine, they say, but Massa not as good.
The computer simulations rate Ferrari a 42.2 per cent chance of winning in Melbourne, which would be its fourth victory in a row in the city, and a 77 per cent chance to have a driver on the podium.
New entrant Toyota is given more chance in the race than perennial tail-end team Minardi, which will be entering its second season under Australian Paul Stoddart's ownership. That is based largely on Toyota driver Mika Salo's record in his previous 93 GPs. Nonetheless, they give Minardi an 8.1 per cent chance of scoring a world championship point - something it has done only once in the past six seasons.
The mathematicians found that only eight drivers could become the 2002 world champion - but they gave three of them (Montoya, Irvine and Sauber's Nick Heidfeld) only 1 per cent or less chance. That trio ranked behind Michael Schumacher (72.8 per cent), Coulthard (10.5 per cent), Barrichello (5.6 per cent), Ralf Schumacher (5.0 per cent), and Raikkonen (4.7 per cent).
Montoya, in particular, might take issue with that when the season gets underway in Melbourne on the first weekend of March.
Three in a row for Schumacher?
Michael Schumacher is being tipped for an Australian GP hat-trick next March
25/11/01
Michael Schumacher is shooting for a third successive Melbourne victory at the 2002 Foster's Australian Grand Prix - and the Ferrari superstar has a 31.1 per cent chance of achieving it, according to the sports statistics unit at the city's Swinburne University.
That's twice as good a chance as any other driver in the race, Swinburne mathematicians Jonathan Lowe and Stephen Clarke say, with McLaren's David Coulthard the next best hope at 14.5 per cent.
Schumacher is a better than 60 per cent chance of a podium finish (top three) at Albert Park on March 3, while his chances of finishing in the top six are almost 76 per cent.
Swinburne has already run the Grand Prix more than 20,000 times in computer simulations, representing more than 1.16 million laps and more than 6.15 million kilometres around the Albert Park circuit! It has also simulated the entire 2002 F1 world championship season more than 1,000 times - and found Schumacher to be a 72.8 per cent chance to win the crown again.
If the mathematicians are right, that will be the German's fifth world title, equaling the record of the legendary Juan-Manuel Fangio.
Schumacher has already won more GPs (53) than any other driver in F1 history and scored more world championship points (801).
Coulthard is given the second best chance of becoming world champion next season by Swinburne - at 10.5 per cent.
The simulations found that Ferrari has almost an 80 per cent chance of taking the constructors' title next year, with McLaren and Williams the only other teams that could topple the Italian stable.
Apart from Schumacher and Coulthard, only two other drivers are given more than a 10 per cent chance of winning the Foster's Australian Grand Prix. They are Ralf Schumacher in the Williams team and Rubens Barrichello in the second Ferrari, while they rate McLaren's new driver, Kimi Raikkonen a star on his F1 debut in Melbourne this year with the Sauber team - a 9.4 per cent chance of victory at Albert Park in 2002.
They rate the other Williams driver, Juan Pablo Montoya, only a 6.7 per cent chance of winning in Melbourne in March - and a 39.5 per cent chance of not finishing.
However, the mathematicians emphasise that these predictions are based solely on past performance and cannot take account of any likely improvement by drivers as they gain experience, of any improvements in new-model cars for 2002, or pre-season testing form.
They give Raikkonen a 30.2 per cent chance (the fifth best) of a podium finish at his first race for McLaren, and almost a 58 per cent chance of finishing in the top six and repeating the world championship point he scored in Melbourne in 2001 at his first GP.
They rate Olivier Panis' hopes in Melbourne ahead of his British American Racing teammate and 1997 world champion Jacques Villeneuve.
They give 11 of the drivers in the field less than a 1 per cent chance of winning, but Jordan's Japanese rookie Takuma Sato and Sauber newcomer Felipe Massa better chances than that.
Sato has the same chance as Jaguar's Eddie Irvine, they say, but Massa not as good.
The computer simulations rate Ferrari a 42.2 per cent chance of winning in Melbourne, which would be its fourth victory in a row in the city, and a 77 per cent chance to have a driver on the podium.
New entrant Toyota is given more chance in the race than perennial tail-end team Minardi, which will be entering its second season under Australian Paul Stoddart's ownership. That is based largely on Toyota driver Mika Salo's record in his previous 93 GPs. Nonetheless, they give Minardi an 8.1 per cent chance of scoring a world championship point - something it has done only once in the past six seasons.
The mathematicians found that only eight drivers could become the 2002 world champion - but they gave three of them (Montoya, Irvine and Sauber's Nick Heidfeld) only 1 per cent or less chance. That trio ranked behind Michael Schumacher (72.8 per cent), Coulthard (10.5 per cent), Barrichello (5.6 per cent), Ralf Schumacher (5.0 per cent), and Raikkonen (4.7 per cent).
Montoya, in particular, might take issue with that when the season gets underway in Melbourne on the first weekend of March.