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Discussion in 'Sports' started by JohnBM01, Nov 4, 2012.
That's why you shouldn't try to predict wins 3 years out. Even if you are Bill James.
Exactly. The Nationals say hi
In 3 years the Mets will be contracted or win a World Series.
I think I covered all possible scenarios there .
Are you saying Bill James can predict three years out? Predict trades that may or may not occur? Injuries to current roster plus prospects? Growth and development of current players and prospects? Which prospects will pan out and which will fade away once they reach Double A? There are so many things that can happen over the next three years that making projections is a fools errand. A lot of teams should be future 90 win teams based on their prospects. Very few do.
I'm saying that you need to get your panties out of a bunch and let me make John feel better about his Astros. The Rays were correctly predicted to be the best team in baseball a full season before they were the losing-est team in baseball - the year after that they won the AL East and went to the World Series.
A lot can happen in 3 years. A smart man thinks the Astros will be good. Get over it.
I am not at all worried about the Astros. I know what we have and don't have. I appreciate you trying to cheer me up about the Astros, though.
Now that you're here, Villain, how do you gauge the Dodgers for this season? Can they challenge that team up north (in your case, the defending champions- San Francisco Giants) for the NL West? How do you see the 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers?
I think John and I are in the same place when it comes to the realities of our teams and their futures. It's all about 2-3 seasons from now and beyond for our teams. I look at the Cubs and see a team that should win 90 games 3 years from now if things continue to go well and Theo continues to put solid pieces around the core they have now. I'm excited about 2015 for the Cubs, but I'm also nervous because Baez or Soler not developing like they should could be a big setback. That's all I was saying. The Cubs have a plan to get them there by 2015 but even Theo would say a lot of things have to go their way for it to happen. Same for the Astros. They have the plan in place, now the breaks have to go their way.
My comments were based completely on the will from your statement. In fact, I doubt Bill James said will and probably said something like should win 90 games three years from if they continue down their current path. That's all I was trying to say.
They can probably challenge them but these injuries to Greinke and Crawford could hurt them badly. If Greinke does need Tommy John (its possible) that's a huge waste of money.
It's just inflammation. He's fine. Spring Training reports are getting blown way out of proportion.
The Dodgers' chances this year against the Champs? I like them. It's a long season and obviously a lot can happen, but I really want to see what Beckett, Ramirez, Gonzalez will do in full seasons as Dodgers. Beckett looked pretty decent at the end of the year last season, I think that's a testament to a change of scenery and attitude from Boston.
Crawford... I don't know what to expect from him. I'm optimistic and hopeful that he will have a productive season, but I'm just not sure if he'll be healthy enough to return to what he was able to do in Tampa. Still, 80% of TB Crawford is way better than anything that was in LF for the Dodgers last year.
Kershaw, I expect him to have a great season. He's looked healthy and strong in Spring Training and he finished 2nd in the Cy Young last year while playing through various ailments.
On the whole, I think that the NL West is there for the Dodgers to win, but health will be the deciding factor. The talent is there. Chemistry is an media-hype myth and not a problem with a Player's Manager like Don Mattingly and strong clubhouse leaders like Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw - maybe even Gonzalez.
Cubs top prospect Javier Baez hit a home run today estimated at 470 feet. It cleared the scoreboard, crossed a road, and landed 6 cars deep in the parking lot. Couldn't even see it land on WGN. It was his 4th home run in his last 5 at bats, two off Team Japan. He won't be coming north this year, likely will start in High A ball and hopefully promoted to AA by end of the season. He is likely to be sent to minor league camp tomorrow or Monday but got some really good experience with Castro missing time with a hamstring strain.
Tim Lincecum doesn't seem to be giving any indication that last year was a fluke:
I still don't know what it is that is causing him to not be as effective anymore. Can it be as simple as not repeating his mechanics (the excuse they're using)? That doesn't sound like the kind of problem a pitcher should be having entering his prime (in terms of age). Timmy's a veteran now.
That kid can hit. I've been following the Cubs farm system for the last year. Jorge Soler and Gerardo Concepción were great adds for them as well. THe Cubbies are going to be good, and soon.
I hope the Cubs move out of Wrigley. Chicago is such a scumpit.
Well he did miss 2 starts because of the blister... The reason he stopped throwing the slider last year was because of the blister problem. He had a different workout routine before the 2012 season which he hoped gave him better endurance but at the same time he lost strength. I always laugh when people talk fastball speed with Timmy. He had a 9.2 K/9 last year which pretty much sets aside any hoax that he doesn't have 'stuff' anymore. Timmy also has never once in his life had even a 'decent' spring.. They are always terrible. 2010 was even worse and things ended up fine that year for us.
Timmy wasn't Timmy last year but he was also unlucky with an absurdly high BABIP. But he also wasn't using his slider as that was his go to pitch for a strike... For most pitchers its their FB but Timmy has so much movement on his its not always one he can count on. The last thing its partially mental.. You saw him the playoffs out of the pen devouring hitters like normal because he was able to go out and not worry about anything like he could when he was younger. He thinks to much about pitch count and hold back a lot... He needs to go back to his old ways of attacking every hitter head on like he did in the playoffs.
Even if he has problems I'm really not that worried because we have such a good rotation and deep bullpen.
Yeah it's really weird. I've mentioned that my girlfriend and her family are Giants fans but they don't watch baseball like I do. Anyways, they'd always ask me what the deal is with Lincecum and I could never quite explain it to them.
I also totally get what you're saying and it's not like there's just one thing to point at. Yes his fastball is slower but that's not really an issue since his offspeed stuff is notoriously filthy. Same with the slider. I think last year I was hearing that the way he chucked the slider was putting too much stress on his elbow and that's why he couldn't go to it as much. Blisters are blisters and everyone gets them. In Spring Training - duh you need to build up the callouses again.
That's also why I put it in this thread and not the season thread. Spring Training does get blown way out of proportion.
I do think that it's important to note that the scout observed and Lincecum confirmed that he's not locating pitches. That's not a good sign. Spring Training is where your ERA gets to 6.00 because you're only throwing fastballs or only throwing curveballs and all you're trying to do is throw effective pitches as opposed to actually getting hitters out.
Whatever the reason for his struggles, no one can deny that he is definitely having a hard time. It's not unfair to state that at this point that it does not look good for 2013 as far as Lincecum is concerned.
I hope he has a terrible season, the Giants let him loose, and he goes to a team like Kansas City or Pittsburgh and just lights it up again. He's one of my favorite pitchers despite being a Gigante.
From what I heard the blisters were pretty extreme.. Like there was 3-4 layers of brutal blistering from throwing the slider. Casilla had blister problems last year also after dealing with a workload he was unused to which was part of his struggles mid season before he started to tear it up.
As for location problems its kind of the same thing as last year... The one game I saw of Timmy pitching is he started off good for the first time through the lineup, didn't walk any and was making quick outs but then started having problems locating. I think part of it is he is just behind in workload kind of like in 2010 same thing happened.
I'm honestly more concerned about Pablos elbow. Pablos problem is that he plays year round and never stops... His body needs rest from baseball, which is why I didn't like him doing the WBC. He also plays in the Venezuelan winter league every year and his team won the Championship and he got MVP again haha. But all that baseball year in and year out puts a lot of stress on ones body. I laugh pretty hard when people think he has bone spurs in his elbow because of his weight. Though I do wish he would lose more (he lost 20 since WBC apparently)... Ideally want him to be at what he was in 2011 when he was destroying it.
Though I am excited for Belt... and oddly enough Zito. Belt is being more aggressive and jumping on mistakes and not watching/missing them like he was in 2012. One of the reasons why his HR rate dropped so much was he whiffed or watched the mistakes, he wasn't ready for them.
Zito has two weapons he hasn't in the past years with the Giants now... Better FB control and the back door slider to right handers. I actually kind of hope he breaks 200IP and comes back another year. And oddly enough I kind want Timmy to go somewhere else next year as well. I love him, I love his free spirited, doesn't care style.. Dropping the F bomb to live reporters on more then one occasion. But with Heston, Stratton, Crick and Blackburn all making names for them self, I'd rather have one of them fill in and not have another pitcher with large contract.
As an off-topic note regarding Spring Training, some of the ballparks that the Cactus League play at are quite lovely! I think one of those Cactus League sites is that ballpark in Tempe, AZ with some scenic views. Maybe my favorite of the Grapefruit League ballparks is Steinbrenner Field.
Spring Training about to conclude so the regular season can get underway not too long from now.
Think that's Salt River Fields in Scottsdale.
No, it was Tempe Diablo Stadium I was referencing to. The view of the hills around that stadium are very nice. It's probably my favorite of the Cactus League stadiums.
Ah, that's where the Angels play their spring training games.
I'm watching the new-look Astros for the first time ever now on MLB Network. I really do enjoy seeing the Astros return to their navy blue and orange colors. I will only be happier if they can return to relevance and return to winning. Comcast SportsNet Houston still is the TV home of most Houston sports, so I'm pleased to know this MLB Network broadcast isn't blacked out. That's because it is a YES Network broadcast as my Astros are taking on the Yankees. It's currently 4-0 in favor of the Astros in the Bottom of the 5th.
Soler looks to be a great add for the Cubs. It's going to take some development before he's ready though. Concepción struggled mightily last year however. Hopefully he's just getting adapted to baseball in America.
And the freeway? You can also see the I-10 from the Angels' facility. I suppose that fits.
Angel Stadium in Anaheim:
You can see people in the stands when you drive by.
The Astros had a split-squad deal today- meaning we played two games against two different teams. One Astros squad lost 2-0 to Atlanta, while the other hammered Detroit 11-4. I am mostly proud of the Astros for most of their Spring Training efforts. All that matters is what we can do in the regular season.
Spring Training is wrapping up. Are your boys ready for the 2013 season?
Bad luck Joe.