Peltzman Effect

[Colonel_Loki]

Well i'm not sure if any of you know what this is or not, but it's basically a hypothesis that people will respond to a safety regulation by increasing their risky behavior, basically making it useless. This is why accidents haven't gone down with the advent of ABS, and also why people in ABS vehicles are more likely to be involved in an accident.

Well this got me thinking of ways to try to make it so that it would turn on in the event of an emergency so that way people would learn to respect it, and will also make people learn better brake control which would have the effect of fewer accidents. The problem is there would be those people who would find out how to circumvent this to induce the ABS whenever and thus it would make it ineffective. So i was wondering if anyone here has any ideas on this matter.

 

[Luminis]

Well, as far as I know, it's a deeply psychological effect, so the only way to circumvent it would be for the driver in question to actually not know anything about the security systems in his/her car, which (I think) is barely possible.

Also, I'd like to think that the fact that the number of accidents hasn't gone down thanks to ABS is partially caused by the increased traffic on the roads.

 

[Colonel_Loki]

Well, as far as I know, it's a deeply psychological effect, so the only way to circumvent it would be for the driver in question to actually not know anything about the security systems in his/her car, which (I think) is barely possible.

Also, I'd like to think that the fact that the number of accidents hasn't gone down thanks to ABS is partially caused by the increased traffic on the roads.

I thought about that too, but who would buy a car that doesn't advertise ABS, even if it has it?

As for increased traffic, I would like to think that too, but i'm a little too cynical for that.

 

[Kent]

Always remember...
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

[Azuremen]

Always remember...
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

92% of which are made up.

And there are more cars on the road as they get cheaper, population rises, and so forth.

 

[Colonel_Loki]

http://www.aa1car.com/library/abs98f.htm

That is the one of the articles showing my point though. And statistics aren't all bs. A lot of people say they're made up, but that's usually true when people are in an argument and is less true (but not untrue) in studies. I wasn't saying that only the number of accidents has been unchanging, but the likelihood of an accident is higher with an ABS equipped car.

Other studies of people on bikes with and without helmets show that people will drive closer to the person with the helmet. It's human nature, if you give people an inch, they will misjudge how big that inch is.

 

[homeforsummer]

The easiest way to get people to feel more vulnerable and change their behaviour without removing all the safety features is just to remove a load of sound deadening material. If your car is louder at any given speed then you feel as if you're going quicker than you are and subconsciously drive a little more cautiously. It'd have the added side benefit of immediately reducing the weight of any given car too.

The main problem with this is that no manufacturer would want to take the first step to make their cars less refined. Customers are much happier to feel safe than actually driving safely.

 

[Azuremen]

http://www.aa1car.com/library/abs98f.htm

That is the one of the articles showing my point though. And statistics aren't all bs. A lot of people say they're made up, but that's usually true when people are in an argument and is less true (but not untrue) in studies. I wasn't saying that only the number of accidents has been unchanging, but the likelihood of an accident is higher with an ABS equipped car.

Other studies of people on bikes with and without helmets show that people will drive closer to the person with the helmet. It's human nature, if you give people an inch, they will misjudge how big that inch is.

You missed Sarcasm. I study science, my life revolves around averages and numbers.

And you realize you can't have better brake control than a modern ABS system? Aside, maybe, in dry conditions with certain tire compounds. The computer will win out in anything other than perfect, dry tarmac because it can modulate individual wheels.

The solution isn't to remove or mask safety features but to educate people better in general. I'd certainly rather have than a system that hides ABS from me in anything but an absolutely emergency, as it is pretty damn useful on the snow, and no amount of brake control will make up for it.

 

[Colonel_Loki]

You missed Sarcasm. I study science, my life revolves around averages and numbers.

And you realize you can't have better brake control than a modern ABS system? Aside, maybe, in dry conditions with certain tire compounds. The computer will win out in anything other than perfect, dry tarmac because it can modulate individual wheels.

The solution isn't to remove or mask safety features but to educate people better in general. I'd certainly rather have than a system that hides ABS from me in anything but an absolutely emergency, as it is pretty damn useful on the snow, and no amount of brake control will make up for it.

I did miss it, it's hard to convey sarcasm online. I figured you were making a joke but i didn't catch the sarcasm. That's one reason i tend to avoid it unless i spell it out.

I agree wholeheartedly that ABS is superior to any technique in any given condition. My whole problem is the fact that people feel safer and therefore are willing to take greater risks. I'm trying to think of a solution that will work with anyone as i may still go into the automotive engineering field when i graduate in a year (though that possibility is looking smaller and smaller seeing as i wouldn't get to do what i want most likely).

I also agree that this type of solution would not be the best approach and that the core problem is how driving is treated here in America. I've often wished, even before i could drive, that our regulations were more like that of Germany's or Finland's simply because it's laughably easy to get a license for a big machine that can easily cause death. They might as well just hand them out when you turn sixteen. However i also realize that this isn't going to change any time soon and that it's very much a political issue that i will never have an effect on. So i'm trying to do the next best thing.

 

[mustangGT90210]

I've let a couple of my friends drive my truck recently, one drives an 02 Ram 1500 and the other a 06 Silverado V6. They both commented that when going through the neighborhood at 35 ((speed limit 30) they felt they were flying, and when they got on the highway by the house here (60mph speed limit) they kept defaulting back to 55ish when no one was around as opposed to the 65+ they will normally do in their trucks.

I asked them not to look at the speedometer, just drive until it felt they were going as fast as usual if they were in their trucks on the highway. Which resulted in driving 50ish. They felt extra fast at 55-60.

Moral of the story: You feel speed in my truck, not in their newer trucks. I think the same is same for cars, and I agree, some of that sound deadening needs to go!

 

[Colonel_Loki]

I've let a couple of my friends drive my truck recently, one drives an 02 Ram 1500 and the other a 06 Silverado V6. They both commented that when going through the neighborhood at 35 ((speed limit 30) they felt they were flying, and when they got on the highway by the house here (60mph speed limit) they kept defaulting back to 55ish when no one was around as opposed to the 65+ they will normally do in their trucks.

I asked them not to look at the speedometer, just drive until it felt they were going as fast as usual if they were in their trucks on the highway. Which resulted in driving 50ish. They felt extra fast at 55-60.

Moral of the story: You feel speed in my truck, not in their newer trucks. I think the same is same for cars, and I agree, some of that sound deadening needs to go!

I'd be in favor of that especially because that's a small part of the issue with why cars are so inefficient. That being said, no one would buy a car like that anymore. It's very hard for people to accept change, especially when taking away luxuries.

 

[R1ch85]

This is why accidents haven't gone down with the advent of ABS, and also why people in ABS vehicles are more likely to be involved in an accident.

This may be a wild guess, but I'd imagine that there are way more cars with ABS on the roads than without these days, so the chances of them being involved in an accident are going to be statistically higher anyway. If 100% of cars had ABS, then all accidents would involve them, and young, new drivers wouldn't know anything different anyway.

 

[Colonel_Loki]

This may be a wild guess, but I'd imagine that there are way more cars with ABS on the roads than without these days, so the chances of them being involved in an accident are going to be statistically higher anyway. If 100% of cars had ABS, then all accidents would involve them, and young, new drivers wouldn't know anything different anyway.

The thing is that around 58% of cars on the market have ABS. So bearing that in mind, that doesn't account for their higher likelihood of being in an accident. In fact, when i was learning to drive and the two cars i drove on a regular basis in high school all lacked ABS. I agree with the point of if 100% were equipped with ABS then 100% would be involved in accidents, but that's simply not the case. Therefore that has little to do with the fact that they are involved in more accidents. Plus saying such neglects the fact that accident rates have not dropped since the introduction of ABS which should be the case since it's safer.

 

[Murcie_LP640]

From what I have experienced on the roads, no amount of computers or electrical systems can deteriorate human driver behaviour. ABS is a very good safety system, however it can't do its job properly when some drivers are reacting too late to get on the brake pedal to avoid an accident. In my opinion that's the reason why ABS hasn't dropped accident rates.

 

[niky]

http://www.aa1car.com/library/abs98f.htm

That is the one of the articles showing my point though. And statistics aren't all bs. A lot of people say they're made up, but that's usually true when people are in an argument and is less true (but not untrue) in studies. I wasn't saying that only the number of accidents has been unchanging, but the likelihood of an accident is higher with an ABS equipped car.

Other studies of people on bikes with and without helmets show that people will drive closer to the person with the helmet. It's human nature, if you give people an inch, they will misjudge how big that inch is.

That article is an excellent example of how statistics can be used to misrepresent an argument. The HLDI claims greater fatality in incidents... which is not true... it's just that a greater proportion of accidents with ABS were fatal, because there were fewer accidents overall.

That fatal accidents were similar between ABS and non-ABS may indicate that people with and without had the same mindset... ABS is not going to save you if you're driving 50 mph too fast for the conditions you are in. It will merely prevent you from understeering straight into it.

Which brings up the real problem with ABS. Not the safety placebo effect, but the fact that ABS allows you to swerve much harder under braking than you can without... which leads to rollovers, which were cited in the article as a big problem with ABS. Which is less of a problem with electronic stability control, which can help to counter wild steering inputs that result when you steer and brake (with ABS) at the same time.

The easiest way to get people to feel more vulnerable and change their behaviour without removing all the safety features is just to remove a load of sound deadening material. If your car is louder at any given speed then you feel as if you're going quicker than you are and subconsciously drive a little more cautiously. It'd have the added side benefit of immediately reducing the weight of any given car too.

The main problem with this is that no manufacturer would want to take the first step to make their cars less refined. Customers are much happier to feel safe than actually driving safely.

Indeed. I find myself subconsciously driving 20-30 km/h slower in a Miata than I would in another vehicle. Actually... removing the filters that isolate the steering from bumps and deflections on the road would suffice in making them drive much slower. It won't make the car harder to control (far from it), but it will make the driver more aware of what's going on with the road underneath him, and make him more nervous about it.

 

[Omnis]

I guess the Peltzman effect has something to do with Hans Monderman's traffic design philosophy. His design makes roads where traffic flows on its own without lights and signals but with communication between drivers and the environment. It makes people more aware of their surroundings, and the accidents, usually minor, are learning experiences rather than fatal ones.

 

[Stotty]

Indeed. I find myself subconsciously driving 20-30 km/h slower in a Miata than I would in another vehicle. Actually... removing the filters that isolate the steering from bumps and deflections on the road would suffice in making them drive much slower. It won't make the car harder to control (far from it), but it will make the driver more aware of what's going on with the road underneath him, and make him more nervous about it.

This is my experience also... in normal circumstances (ie; when I'm not 'going for it') I tend to find myself driving slower in the Porsche than I do in the Mondeo. The Mondeo is so quiet and smooth riding that it's very easy to gain speed without being really aware of it, where as the Porsche is noisy and hard so you noitce your speed much more. The Porsche is safer though as it has better brakes, more grip and is much more responsive should you need to take avoiding action.

 

[zedextreme8177]

I guess the Peltzman effect has something to do with Hans Monderman's traffic design philosophy. His design makes roads where traffic flows on its own without lights and signals but with communication between drivers and the environment. It makes people more aware of their surroundings, and the accidents, usually minor, are learning experiences rather than fatal ones.

Traffic lights? Who needs traffic lights

 

[Omnis]

Traffic lights? Who needs traffic lights

More like this: https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/showthread.php?t=110450

 

[Duke]

Back in the '80s and '90s, when CHMSLs became mandated in the US and DRLs looked to be following suit, I immediately had a somewhat related thought:

Yeah, these new things make a car stand out, until every car on the road has them, and then individual cars will fade back into the sea of visual input. Except that now the background noise is 50% higher than it was, so it's even harder to see pedestrians, bicycles, and motorcycles.

I'd love to see statistics that show what the long-term effect of CHMSLs and DRLs has been in safety for both cars and non-car traffic.

I also agree that the Peltzman effect is in play with ABS... and now that 2012 will require stability control in every new car, I can definitely see it happening at yet another level.

 

[freedomweasel]

Back in the '80s and '90s, when CHMSLs became mandated in the US and DRLs looked to be following suit, I immediately had a somewhat related thought:

Yeah, these new things make a car stand out, until every car on the road has them, and then individual cars will fade back into the sea of visual input. Except that now the background noise is 50% higher than it was, so it's even harder to see pedestrians, bicycles, and motorcycles.

I'd love to see statistics that show what the long-term effect of CHMSLs and DRLs has been in safety for both cars and non-car traffic.

I also agree that the Peltzman effect is in play with ABS... and now that 2012 will require stability control in every new car, I can definitely see it happening at yet another level.

The only downside I can personally (anecdotally) comment on with regard to DRLs is that many drivers seem to to think that DRLs=headlights. Often the headlights themselves are the DRLs, but (at least in the US) the rear lights are not on until you physically turn on your headlights. Makes it a bit sketchy in rain/snow/night driving when you can't see people ahead of you because they think they're lights are on. It's just more things that the car does for you, so it's easier to forget about it. Reminds me of those stupid Mercedes commercials they've been running recently where all the drivers thank the car for telling them they were drifting out of their lane, stopping for them and telling them they were falling asleep.

Personally I really like the center brake light. On a lot of cars it's hard to tell the difference between the rear lights being on and the brake lights being on, the 3rd light helps a lot.

I very much dislike DRLs though, I turned them off in my car.

 

[zedextreme8177]

More like this: https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/showthread.php?t=110450

Reposted there...

 

[mustangGT90210]

I'd be in favor of that especially because that's a small part of the issue with why cars are so inefficient. That being said, no one would buy a car like that anymore. It's very hard for people to accept change, especially when taking away luxuries.

I agree with people not liking luxury being taken away. In my case, my heater no longer works and I'm not a fan of not having it. In the end I can still clear my windows with vented air, but heat is nice when you want it.

From what I have experienced on the roads, no amount of computers or electrical systems can deteriorate human driver behaviour. ABS is a very good safety system, however it can't do its job properly when some drivers are reacting too late to get on the brake pedal to avoid an accident. In my opinion that's the reason why ABS hasn't dropped accident rates.

While I agree mostly with you here, there's also a mindset that comes, possibly subconciously, from having ABS, and the like. People feel they can get away with more having it, knowing that should fit hit the shan, they can stab the brakes as hard as they want and have little side effects. I'm not advocating taking it away, as it is a great safety device, and I do wish my truck had it completely. I have rear ABS... it controls the drum brakes out back, but the front discs will lock long before those drums could due to the simple fact that they are a more efficient braking device. Knowing this, I'm more alert of what is going on around me because I know damn well I could skid right through something.

If more people had the mindset or awareness that ABS/et all are there for emergencies, and should not be relied upon, we'd have safer roadways.

Indeed. I find myself subconsciously driving 20-30 km/h slower in a Miata than I would in another vehicle. Actually... removing the filters that isolate the steering from bumps and deflections on the road would suffice in making them drive much slower. It won't make the car harder to control (far from it), but it will make the driver more aware of what's going on with the road underneath him, and make him more nervous about it.

More agreement from me here. New cars glide over bumps and imperfections like they aren't even there. My steering column and wheel actually shake going over those, and you can watch it bounce around. Everyone that's driven an older vehicle like that that I know has always been more careful because they can feel what's going on between the vehicle and the road.

While keeping the refinement that's found in new cars, if manufacturers put stiffer springs in new cars, more people would know this, and would hopefully recognize that they really are bouncing over those imperfections, and should take it easier on them.

Personally I really like the center brake light. On a lot of cars it's hard to tell the difference between the rear lights being on and the brake lights being on, the 3rd light helps a lot.

I very much dislike DRLs though, I turned them off in my car.

3rd brake light, very important. Especially with the multiple cars you come across with both normal ones burned out or always on, leaving the 3rd to tell you when they are actually on the brakes