The '13 driver transfer discussion/speculation thread op updated 16/10

[zippy_the_cat]

Oh..:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/99239

Oh.....:
http://www.crash.net/btcc/race+report/162614/1/chilton_heads_aon_1-2.html

Oh...........:
http://www.touringcartimes.com/article.php?id=664

Oh..................:
http://moto-racing.speedtv.com/article/motogp-returning-stoner-targets-wins-not-team-orders/

Oh dear.

I would distinguish between team orders and the No. 1/No. 2 ethos in general. When in the last third or so of a season there's a clear-cut points leader or contender, it makes sense to favor him. E.g. I had no problem with Ferrari telling Massa to stay behind Alonso at Korea, as Massa went in having no realistic shot at the title.

That's different in my mind from the mentality that says going into the season you have one good driver and one that's not so good that's there to play caddy.

Of the examples above, one's from rally and involves Citroen, which favors Loeb for marketing and sentimental reasons. Incidentally, now that Loeb's on his way out, I imagine they rather wish they had Ogier back. Another involves the incident in BTCC a couple years back where Tom Onslow-Cole had to give up race leads to teammate and team funder Tom Chilton. That was widely regarded at the time as a travesty because TOC was clearly driving better than Chilton that entire weekend and had a better shot than Chilton of making hay in the championship.

Edit: I think both the above examples illustrate how counter-productive the No. 1/No. 2 mentality can be. The BTCC incident derailed the career of a promising young driver in Onslow-Cole and Citroen's favoritism toward Loeb ruined their succession planning.

 

[Ardius]

I think its pretty clear that Loeb is a number 1 driver at Citroen, going so far as forcing Ogier to look elsewhere. I don't think anyone seriously believes Hirvonen is equal to Loeb there.
Chilton quite clearly had a higher status than Onslow-Cole at Aon for obvious reasons - its still a number 1 status.

My point was that there are plenty of motorsports that employ drivers and give them different, un-equal status in the team. For some teams its money like Chilton and for others its to attempt a championship challenge.

Its not an F1-only fashion as you stated. But anyway, quite wildly off topic.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

I think its pretty clear that Loeb is a number 1 driver at Citroen, going so far as forcing Ogier to look elsewhere. I don't think anyone seriously believes Hirvonen is equal to Loeb there.
Chilton quite clearly had a higher status than Onslow-Cole at Aon for obvious reasons - its still a number 1 status.

Were either of those decisions well-grounded, in your view, or were they counter-productive?

I think the discussion on-topic because we're mulling the Vettel-to Ferrari rumors. Which the BBC still believes in, by the way.

 

[Ardius]

Were either of those decisions well-grounded, in your view, or were they counter-productive?

My point wasn't to show they were beneficial. My point was to show that these decisions aren't exclusive to F1 as you stated.
And I don't see this discussion as that relevant to driver transfers, no. It deserves its own thread really.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

Interesting blog today from James Allen on Vettel-to-Ferrari.

It's all carefully qualified so he can say he wasn't wrong no matter how things play out. But these were the takeaways:

1). di Montezemolo's comments have been amended, directly and by the in-house "Horse Whisperer" blog, to say "there is room at Ferrari for anyone who [has] shown he has the talent to drive the red car and knows how to work in harmony with the team.”

2). Allen floats the notion that this may be Ferrari disinformation to get in heads at RB during the current championship fight. But he doesn't commit to that idea.

3). He shares the skepticism about Alonso's ability to work with a teammate of similar ability.

4). His own sources at Ferrari, proven reliable in the past, indicate that there's a deal between the team and Vettel but not necessarily for 2014.

As to point #1, I'd say a good reporter should now be asking di Montezemolo to define harmony.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

1). di Montezemolo's comments have been amended, directly and by the in-house "Horse Whisperer" blog, to say "there is room at Ferrari for anyone who [has] shown he has the talent to drive the red car and knows how to work in harmony with the team.”

The Horse Whisperer is rubbish. It's just Ferrari's outlet for saying things that cannot be said publicly.

2). Allen floats the notion that this may be Ferrari disinformation to get in heads at RB during the current championship fight. But he doesn't commit to that idea.

That doesn't make much sense. Any attempt to distance themselves from Vettel is only going to shore up Vettel's relationship with Red Bull. They'll consolidate and be stronger for it.

If Ferrari really wanted to play mind games, they'd got after Vettel's engineer, Rocky. Vettel and Rocky are pretty close - the way Massa and Rob Smedley are - so all Ferrari would have to do is show interest in Vettel, but imply that he would be the only one to come across to Maranello to try and get some leverage between Vettel and Rocky.

As to point #1, I'd say a good reporter should now be asking di Montezemolo to define harmony.

A good reporter might ask just that.

A great reporter, however, will drop the story. You don't have to be immersed in the world of Formula 1 to know that there isn't anything else in this. Ferrari in general and Luca in particular only ever tell you what they want you to know, and they will only ever tell you when they want you to know it. There is no sense questioning something that is a year away from being realised, if realising it is their intention at all. Asking Luca to "define harmony" is only going to get you the same comments that he just gave, perhaps reworded as punishment so that you have to waste time sifting through them before you realise there is nothing there.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

The Horse Whisperer is rubbish. It's just Ferrari's outlet for saying things that cannot be said publicly.

Well, that's in keeping with Ferrari being an odd operation, needing an anonymous blog to put out the "this is what the boss really meant to say" press release.

That doesn't make much sense. Any attempt to distance themselves from Vettel is only going to shore up Vettel's relationship with Red Bull. They'll consolidate and be stronger for it.

Agreed. There was one year in NASCAR where Dale Earnhardt Sr. basically trash-talked himself into a title by getting into Bill Elliott's head. Vettel, Newey and Horner don't seem the types to fall for that kind of crap. And I think Ferrari's smart enough to know it.

A great reporter, however, will drop the story. You don't have to be immersed in the world of Formula 1 to know that there isn't anything else in this. Ferrari in general and Luca in particular only ever tell you what they want you to know, and they will only ever tell you when they want you to know it.

Disagree. Questions about Vettel's intentions actually touch on the broader issue of Red Bull's staying power in the sport. They're the reigning superteam, but many assume they're here today, gone tomorrow. I don't think you can walk away from that kind of story.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Well, that's in keeping with Ferrari being an odd operation, needing an anonymous blog to put out the "this is what the boss really meant to say" press release.

No, that's not the point of the Horse Whisperer. The Horse Whisperer is frequently used to make Ferrari's statements even more ambiguous. It doesn't represent what anyone in the team is actually thinking - it just gives Ferrari the chance to openly contradict themselves in such a way that no journalist can ever question them because they can deny knowing who the Horse Whisperer is. They can even deny that the Horse Whisperer works for Ferrari at all.

Agreed. There was one year in NASCAR where Dale Earnhardt Sr. basically trash-talked himself into a title by getting into Bill Elliott's head. Vettel, Newey and Horner don't seem the types to fall for that kind of crap. And I think Ferrari's smart enough to know it.

Why do you insist on bringing up NASCAR comparisons at every opportunity? Seriously, if your first port of call is a NASCAR parallel, it makes me wonder how much you know about Formula 1.

Disagree. Questions about Vettel's intentions actually touch on the broader issue of Red Bull's staying power in the sport. They're the reigning superteam, but many assume they're here today, gone tomorrow. I don't think you can walk away from that kind of story.

Then ask Red Bull those questions. Don't ask Ferrari, because all you're going to get is the same comments the team gave you yesterday.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

Why do you insist on bringing up NASCAR comparisons at every opportunity? Seriously, if your first port of call is a NASCAR parallel, it makes me wonder how much you know about Formula 1.

Because it's more useful than asking why prisonermonkeys always acts like such a jackass.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Do you see why drawing parallels between Formula 1 and NASCAR and then expecting me to understand the point you are trying to make might be a problem when I don't follow NASCAR and know next to nothing about it?

Yesterday, you were talking about how Ferrari's driver policies make no sense because Hendrick Motorsports does something different. Well, I have no idea who Hendrick Motorsports is, so how can I understand anything that you're talking about?

 

[niky]

Because it's more useful than asking why prisonermonkeys always acts like such a jackass.

Watch it. Argue the point, not the man.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

Watch it. Argue the point, not the man.

Niky, see your PM.

As for my background following motorsport, I started with open-wheel/Indy back in the 70s. It and not NASCAR used to be top-dog back then. There was a lot of cross-pollination between North American racing and F1 then, culminating in Andretti's WDC. If you followed one, you followed the other. But open-wheel fell off in this country after the 1973 Indy 500 turned into a nationally televised bloodbath and the politics of the sport turned stupid with the USAC/CART split. Didn't help that great North American drivers like Mark Donohue and Gilles got killed. Gilles' story is well known. Donohue if you saw him drive was one of those guys who seemed absolutely bulletproof so his death was a shocker.

F1 post-Andretti in the 1980s was never particularly easy to follow in this country, what with there being no Internet or 500-channel cable and satellite. I stuck with it through the Prost-Senna era as best I could even if it meant reading a monthly roundup in Road & Track. But I skipped the Schumacher years -- there didn't seem much point when the headline after every race was "Michael wins again."

I'm not particularly a NASCAR fan -- it's bobo racing to me, the Cliff's Notes version of the real thing. But I've lived in the Carolinas for decades and that makes NASCAR as local for me as F1 is to someone in Woking or Milton Keynes.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I spotted an interesting comment from Joe Saward just now, and while I don't particularly like Saward or his style, I'm surprised at just how much I agreed with him: Ferrari could still go after Mark Webber.

Ferrari were known to have made him an offer earlier this year, but he signed with Red Bull for one more year, claiming that it was the place to be - and ever since he reaffirmed his place in the team, everybody has kind of forgotten about him. But this is Ferrari we're talking about: they don't give up just because the driver they want isn't available straight away. And while Webber is at the point of his career where he is taking things one year at a time, if you look back over Ferrari's driver line-ups over the past two decades, they have been the single most stable team on the grid. Sure, they let Ivan Capelli go after one season, but they had originally signed him up for three. And they originally wanted to partner Raikkonen with Alonso before Raikkonen decided to go rallying.

Meanwhile, everybody has been caught up in the rumours of Vettel going to Ferrari in 2014. But Christian Horner insists that Vettel is under contract until 2015 and Luca di Montezemolo has shot down the idea of having "two roosters" in the team. And while most people believe the Horse Whisperer's latest diary entry to be implying that Ferrari are saying one thing and thinking another, everything the Horse Whisperer can be applied to each and every single driver on the grid.

Webber has signed a one-year deal, convinced that it is the place to be in 2013 - but he has experienced a slump in form ever since he agreed to another year, while Vettel is leading the championhip. Ferrari have only taken Massa on for another year, believing he has done enough to keep the seat, but not offering him a multi-year extension. Webber and Alonso also know each other quite well, and would work well together - probably far better than Alonso and Vettel would. Webber is a team player, having filled that role at Red Bull for a while now, but strong enough to pick up the reins if something should befall Alonso. And when Ross Brawn was wooing Hamilton over to Brackley, he made the comment that manufacturer teams "are the place to be" from 2014. All of this seems to be lining up quite nicely, wouldn't you say?

Of course, there is the matter of Vettel's rumoured pre-contract with Ferrari. I would not be surprised if that contract exists - for some time around 2017. I'd wager Ferrari is weighing up Sebastian Vettel as Alonso's replacement, not his team-mate.

 

[nealcropper]

I agree with that last sentence prisoner monkey. I was having a conversation with my brother in law yesterday, and that is exactly what I said to him. He think that's Vettel will be with Ferrari next year, and I bet that it would be when Alonso leaves them. In fact I actually believe it that much I had him a tenner on it.

 

[PeterJB]

And then Karthikeyan will swoop in to replace Alonso and create my dream team...

 

[V v G T v V]

And they originally wanted to partner Raikkonen with Alonso before Raikkonen decided to go rallying.

I am not 100% sure about that... Because as you said :

Luca di Montezemolo has shot down the idea of having "two roosters" in the team

Kimi is a "rooster" as well and the pairing wouldn't have worked out (in my opinion). I think Massa is more of a team player... He was used to it (2006 flashback).

Of course, there is the matter of Vettel's rumoured pre-contract with Ferrari. I would not be surprised if that contract exists - for some time around 2017. I'd wager Ferrari is weighing up Sebastian Vettel as Alonso's replacement, not his team-mate.

Agreed... However... I don't think he will leave RBR unless Ferrari pick up the pace... Because he has "performances clauses" on his contract with the team (meaning if RBR suck, he can leave whenever he wants) and I bet he would ask the same of Ferrari... Plus there is always Mercedes... Even thought they have Lewis now... Who knows... Maybe Michael could pull some strings for his friend.
Now that I am thinking about it... If Mercedes doesn't work out... Maybe
Hamilton could got to ferrari to replace Alonso (just a wild guess...)

 

[RX-7_FD3S]

I believe that Sebastian will move to Ferrari in 2014. Factory team will probably want strong line up for that time, and the only way to have all the feed-back and direct developpement on new motors will be to be on a factory team.

I dont see Mark going to Ferrari at all.

 

[Goshin2568]

I believe that Sebastian will move to Ferrari in 2014. Factory team will probably want strong line up for that time, and the only way to have all the feed-back and direct developpement on new motors will be to be on a factory team.

I dont see Mark going to Ferrari at all.

Yes... Except the president of Ferrari already said no to that.

 

[Bram Turismo]

As long as Newey is with Horner at Red Bull, Vettel isn't going anywhere. It's as simple as that. Vettel would have to be a fool to go to a team that clearly isn't strong enough to win championships when Red Bull is as dominant as they are right now.

As prisonermonkey has said, I agree with the idea that Vettel will be Alonso's replacement rather than his teammate.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

I'm remembering the di Montezemolo interview from a couple weeks back where he said Alonso needs to win a title and then they will hire a teammate who won't bother him. Coded (barely) message to Fernando that if Vettel wins the WDC in 2012 and 2013, maybe Luca will stop caring what Alonso thinks and begin implementing a succession plan?

That to my mind wouldn't preclude putting Vettel in a Ferrari for 2014, alongside Alonso. If Vettel's Mr. Four-Time, they could tell Alonso to get with the program or else give him a release.

Edit: Noises from Williams that perhaps neither of its drivers has a safe seat for 2013. Maldonado's millions notwithstanding? Has Toto Wolff got a pair? We could figure Senna wasn't coming back, but sacking Pastor would be a bit of a statement, eh?

Autosport seems to think the silly season is over. Hulk will join Sauber, Bottas will replace Senna, and Petrov will sit tight at Caterham. They admit to uncertainty about the second seats at Sauber and Force India but see basically the same group of drivers -- Kobayashi, Alguersuari and Sutil -- as the ultimate choices. They seem dubious that Sauber will want to give Gutierrez a race seat. Nobody knows who will partner de la Rosa at HRT, subtext being that no one really cares.

 

[homeforsummer]

As long as Newey is with Horner at Red Bull, Vettel isn't going anywhere. It's as simple as that. Vettel would have to be a fool to go to a team that clearly isn't strong enough to win championships when Red Bull is as dominant as they are right now.

Depends how much of a challenge he likes. Schumacher decamped from top-running Benetton to go to Ferrari, remember. And it only took him a few years to rise back to the top.

 

[Liquid]

And by the time Schuey starts dominating at Ferrari in 2001, Benetton were struggling to make 20th on the grid. Back row. Behind the Minardis. With Button and Fisichella.

Madness.

 

[m8h3r]

Edit: Noises from Williams that perhaps neither of its drivers has a safe seat for 2013. Maldonado's millions notwithstanding? Has Toto Wolff got a pair? We could figure Senna wasn't coming back, but sacking Pastor would be a bit of a statement, eh?

I bloody well hope they do drop Pastor. He's been a disappointment this season and to think that you can take people and and then just say well I have "X" amount of millions is so frustrating. Kamui said that after/before, I forget, Suzuka too. He said he wants to stay but cause he doesn't have a sponser he doesn't think he can.

 

[CinnamonOD]

Hulkenberg to Sauber for 2013 : BBC

But slightly more worrying/interesting :

And Mexican Esteban Gutierrez, the team's reserve driver, is tipped as a partner for the German, which would leave Kamui Kobayashi without a seat.

Massa stays at Ferrari : Autosport

Further rumours emerging that Korea was actually Kamui Kobayashi's last race with Sauber (and that this had been decided before the race, so his first-lap wipeout didn't influence the decision), with Esteban Gutierrez being primed for a drive in India, Abu Dhabi, Austin and Brazil.

It's been met with a dose of scepticism from fans, though.

So that leaves a handful of drivers fighting for one seat at Sauber and another one on Force India:
Alguersuari, Buemi, Sutil, Gutierrez.

The ones that don't get any of those seats, they still can race with Kovalainen (unless Petrov finds more support), De la Rosa and Bottas (only if Williams decide to fire both Senna and Maldonado, this giving Kobayashi one opportunity to drive there, but he needs more sponsorhip to even think about joining another team).

 

[Tzun]

.

 

[Rossell2]

Where's your source mate? Can't see anything.

Edit: lol.

 

[Tzun]

Yea i misred one article, lol

 

[CinnamonOD]

Where's your source mate? Can't see anything.

Edit: lol.

.

Oh, my bad, I didn't knew that Sauber confirmed their 2013 line-up

 

[zippy_the_cat]

I bloody well hope they do drop Pastor. He's been a disappointment this season and to think that you can take people and and then just say well I have "X" amount of millions is so frustrating.

I'd be a bit surprised if they do drop him. He did after all put in a superb drive at Barcelona, and of late seems to be making an effort to take the sharp edges off his driving. He's been a poor points-scorer and that weighs against him. The decision to take Bottas over Senna is obvious, the decision to take Mr. X over Pastor is less so.

 

[Dennisch]

So, no more Kamui?