The Rainduro Puzzle: whether, and when, it rains. Or not.

[photonrider]

When do we know whether the weather is going to turn suddenly wet?

Help me put this puzzle together.

I noticed during the A-Spec Seasonal called the Daytona 24 (AI Hub Event run as The Time Traveller Trophy) that there were multiple weather scenarios that were played out in the game.
Others noticed this, too - obviously especially by those who ran the event more than a few time - and mentioned it.

It is the same with the present 'rainduro' (an endurance race that involves wet-weather racing); iffy weather.
There seems to be no one schedule. Various patterns of weather are played out: from 0% -100%, from sporadic to routine, and seemingly random.
Yet, this can't be so. Or is it?
Is there evidence that the patterns repeat themselves for particular fields?
Does repeating the race with the same field output the same weather? How do retries effect the weather; is it the same?
Does the choice of car effect the output of a particular field? It cannot be the tune?; tunes can be changed after a field is booted up (though the car can't.)
If one wins thrice in a row with 3 different fields does the game engine then output a raindance upto 80% of the race?
If a player keeps losing do blue skies appear for a longer period in consecutive games? (After all enduros are not only about grip.)
These questions are no doubt being asked by the core players here - ones who play the game a lot, and have played the game a lot unadulterated too much by other games - but also a question even pondered by the casual gamer who doesn't spend a lot of time with GT yet still enjoys playing it now and then.
So . . . what's the pattern? Is there one?
What are the facts, if any - and what evidence can we dredge up from this muddy mess that'll put that dimple of knowingness in our cheeks?

This is where I need your help.

I need your comments on the weather, the patterns you observe, the percentages, the time-tables, even just honest opinions on what the feel of a particular race/field/grid order felt like (better or worse), what triggers almost dry races, etc.

The focus of your post must be on the weather pattern (regarding all Seasonal rainduros) and related effects; other discussion must go into the relevant threads centered generally on the event. This way we can concentrate on the weather alone.

In time, as we gather up all this information - whether from just the first dirty dozen that drift in from that rain-drenched wasteland of Eifel, or from the entire mass of players that eventually post - maybe we'll have a less foggy picture of how the weather reigns.
This will arm our playing skills and further knowledge of this iconic game even more for greater control and enjoyment.

Thanks in advance. 👍
H.

 

[TheInfamousJEW6]

In my foray in the Furai the rain started at the end of lap one, got to 65% by lap 3.5 then the rain tailed off for a lap. On lap 5 it rained cat's and dogs getting to 95% by lap 7 then the sun came out and was dry till the end! I ran IM's the whole way with one pot stop on lap 5 and a couple spins...

 

[photonrider]

Good start.

I'll be throwing more stuff in here soon - hope to see more info come in from others, too.

GTG.

 

[cjr3559]

There are too many Seasonal and offline rain events to mention, but events do seem to follow a pattern. However, the degree to how much rain and how wet the track becomes varies even when running the same car.

For example in the current Seasonal (Eifel) it seems to rain about the same time during the event, but sometimes the track will reach 70% saturated but other times only 40%. What it always seems to do is rain/dry out about the same time/laps.

If we're talking about random weather in free run mode, then it's a different story. If you select a dry/clear scenario but choose weather variability anywhere from 10 or more (in the 1-60 scale) it will rain to 100% and then hang there. It doesn't seem to rain and then dry out very often. I've even started with all settings in the mid range: 50% wet track, 50% rainy conditions, 30 chance of changeability and it mostly it seems to verge on the conditions deteriorating rather than improving.

There are so many different scenarios in offline/free run mode to choose that any testing could become a full time job in order to determine the programmed weather pattern (if any).

 

[photonrider]

More Observations - Photographic evidence will follow.

The grid always stays the same - no matter what weather conditions are forecast or actually take place. The drivers remain the same, the grid order remains the same immaterial of the car the Player chooses.
The AI, however, change tires according to what weather is predicted for the race.
The predictions depend upon the starting temperature.

There is only a limited number of starting temperatures ranging from 76 degrees to 83 degrees. 76 is rare - almost totally dry. 83 is the heaviest I've found.

The lower the starting temperature the lighter the rain, and the shorter the duration; conversely the higher the starting temperature the more rain and for longer periods. 79 degree starting temperature is the most common, followed by 82.

If you get no starting temperature count yourself one of the lucky few - the course stays almost bone dry.

The appearance of the rain is cosmetic - actually degree of grip fluctuates according to the PoP shown on the top left of the screen under the game-time readout. Therefore if it says 10% even if it appears to be raining heavily you will have grip. Conversely if it clears up but the readout (while dropping) says 30%, you've lost more grip than it looks like you would on a semi-dry surface.

If a race is repeated (same race, same field, merely retrying without quitting and starting afresh), the AI make the same pitstops, and the weather remains the same - but depending on how you pushed and pulled them and what collisions occurred, may have a different finishing order.
In this way, if you repeat the same race (retry) while your car is now deteriorating, you also have the knowledge of exactly how the weather will behave, and what the AI did as their pitstop strategy.
Most AI keep their pitstop strategy the same for all degrees of starting temperature and weather fluctuation, but a few change their tactics.

Fascinating race. Addictive course; very therapeutical.
The choice of cars and adventurous work-outs seem endless.

Later . . .

👍

 

[photonrider]

Rain Analysis - Current A-Spec 600 PP Enduro at Eifel

Consecutive races run and starting temperatures recorded in order:

Falken GT-R
83 79 80 82 82 79 83 80 77 78 81 79 82

Mazda Furai
81 79 79 82 79 79

Nissan YellowHat
83 76 --


Quantified:

83 - 3
82 - 4
81 - 2
80 - 2
79 - 7 <----------- Most common
78 - 1
77 - 1
76 - 1
- - 1

Spoiler

More observations:

The weather stays the same - at any particular moment - everywhere on the track; If it is raining 70% while you are in the pits it is 70% everywhere else on the track. This means if you are pitting in heavy weather, cars on the track are going much slower, and conversely if you are pitting while the track is dry, the cars on the track behind you are moving much faster.
When the track is very dry, (and tires are bald) it can also be slippery especially on tight and cambered curves.

 

[Arp 273]

I've only started this race 3 times. Dont have the exact weather details for the first 2 . Had a different pattern each time. Probably random but with PD you never know. Some things were always the same, like dry start, 2 periods of rain, dry finish. AI can drive agressive and don't like being passed.

Wanted to do a bunch of comparisons today. Got stuck on first field because fun . Lots of rain.

Car: Nissan GT-R GT500 base model (stock power)
Temp: 26C (78.8 F, not sure if the game rounds or truncates)

Rain: 3/4 lap 1
Max: lap 4, 80%
Dry: end of lap 4

Rain: 1/4 lap 5
Max: lap 7, 91% (very slippery)
Dry: 1/4 lap 8

IM tires have low wear in the rain and grip pretty good in the dry, even when worn. Overall the best tire in these changing conditions. Maybe there are weather patterns that require a more adventurous pit strategy.