Yeah, it can win, but you sure picked a tough one.
The best I've done is 6:03.000 with a MOV of .575. That was against one of the faster AI set.
More than likely, you'll encounter the top AI Lotus finishing in 6:07. Much easier.
If you get a fast AI set, and they're killing you, restart until you get one of the slower set.
You can try this setup: (or just use your F430

)
404 HP
1264 kg
-35/-35
10/8
10/8
+25/-25
2.0/0.5
10/10
Default MTA
TCS off
ABS 1
2nd 1.780
3rd 1.300
4th 1.000 (I think they're default)
FD 3.200
Fairly unstable, but it helps reduce understeer. A quick lift helps point the nose when exiting turns.
I hope this helps. Good luck.