The 5 drivers who I think have a shot at winning, along with the chance they have to win in %. Guys like Ed Carpenter arent on my list because they are never a factor on raceday, they focus too much on putting it on pole. Marco just isnt talented enough, Montoya doesnt have the car this year, etc etc.
40% - Ryan Hunter-Reay - Car has alot of speed and he won this race recently, showing he has what it takes to win a last lap duel.
25% - Fernando Alonso - His success so far at Indy has proved once again it's a track that rewards talented, brave drivers. Hes taken care of the car, but more impressively he's shown courage and fearlessness in traffic, something he'll need to win a last lap duel and stay in contention throughout the race.
The big question mark is inexperience and that possibly leading to making a mistake. Pitting with 30 cars on pitlane is going to be new to him. The restarts will be new. Will he be able to understand what changes his car needs to go faster over the course of 500 miles? Everyone else will be adjusting their car throughout the race and making it better, he has to do so too. Does he make the mistake of taking out or adding too much downforce for the last 100 miles?
With everything said, I feel Alonso has a very good shot to win the race.
15% - Scott Dixon - He is fast, but I dont think he is aggressive enough of a driver to win one of these races in the current era of 'pack racing' cars (2012-present). The finish of 2012 kind of proved that. His wins came when the cars were able to gap eachother better and he was able to run out front by himself. Scott already has two 500 wins, I feel finishing the race and not crashing is more important to him then a 3rd 500 win. Thats his biggest weakness.
10% - Takuma Sato - Has alot of speed but has crashed out of so many 500s, you cant really trust him. But always seems to be in the hunt. And this year hes in a top car again.
10% - Alexander Rossi - Hes in a fast car but again, I question his hunger in the last 100 miles, especially since he already won it last year. On the other hand as a former winner and a fast qualifier his confidence will surely be high. But its hard imagining him pulling a Castroneves and winning the race in both of his first two starts.
I didn't think he'd be up this soon!
