There's no way in hell that Johnson (sixth, -43) or Kenseth (fifth, -36) is going to win the championship this year. Honestly, only Harvick and Stewart have a plausible path to overtake Edwards. With just three races left, it's far too difficult to make up a large deficit with several good teams in front of you. I mean, think about the arithmetic: realistically, Edwards AND Stewart AND Harvick would all have to have a very poor result somewhere amongst the final three races, all while Johnson and Kenseth reel off three top-fives. Are you comfortable projecting all three of the top drivers in the current standings to have a disaster race? I'm certainly not. If it helps, consider that by my math, a 43 point deficit is approximately equivalent to 146 points under the old system (and 36 is 122). That's a lot to ask in three races.