April 2019: International Daily Marathon Month

Discussion in 'Gran Turismo Sport' started by Famine, Mar 18, 2019.

  1. MatskiMonk

    MatskiMonk Premium

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    So, based off your data here, and the official car list I produced this graph to see if there is correlation between what you get vs. what's on offer.


    Red Line is % of cars class won on the wheel
    , Blue Line is % of those cars in game.

    upload_2019-4-22_12-54-53.png
    edited to account for MiEx cars.


    It does appear that the chances of winning a certain class of car is fairly proportional to how many are in the game. The two biggest exceptions to this are the biggest classes in the game, Gr.3 and Gr.X... the bias is towards giving you Gr.3 cars, and very much not giving you Gr.X cars... even though that's the largest class in the game.

    edit:

    If we divide the % of cars received as prizes, by % of cars in that class... I suppose we could then interpret the ratio's as the games Bias towards giving you cars of a certain class.
    edited to account for MiEx cars.
    N 100........1.46:1
    N 200........1.17:1
    N 300........1.20:1
    N 400........1.05:1
    N 500........0.89:1
    N 600........1.37:1
    N 700........1.10:1
    N 800........0.68:1
    N 900........n/a
    N 1000......0.07:1
    Gr.B Rally........1.42:1
    Gr.4........1.37:1
    Gr.3........1.64:1
    Gr.2........0.21:1
    Gr.1........0.27:1
    Gr.X........0.31:1

    edit 2:

    Since what people really want to know is if they'll win a 20 mill car... remember that 50.8% of that 0.3 to One bias (against) getting a Gr.X car, would end up with a VGT car, since 29 out of the 57 Gr.X cars are VGT's.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019
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  2. snowgt

    snowgt

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    I have done some number crunching myself and arrived at similar results to yours. However, I think you should incorporate the following facts into your stats...

    - You will not win a 20 million car. All cars costing 10 million or over have been removed from the wheel. They were there in the very beginning when 330P4 and XJ13 were first added through an update, but there is not one occurrence of such a car being won in the last 10 months or so. Because they cannot be won, they should be subtracted from the total of available cars in N300, N400 and Gr.X.
    - You have to remove the 7 Gr.3 & Gr.B Road Cars from N500, as they can only be bought with mileage points.
    - You have to remove the 3 Safety Cars from Gr.X for the same reason.

    My conclusion is this:
    - The probability for getting Gr.X is about 1/3 of what would be expected.
    - Gr. 1&2 are about 1/5 of what would be expected.
    - N-classes are represented very much according to their percentage of total available cars
    - If you look at race cars separately, Gr.3,4 & B are represented very closely to what you would expect, when you introduce the side condition that Gr.1 & 2 have a lower probability.

    If I had to guess at this point, my money would be on gift cars being random, with some classes' probability being artificially lowered.
     
  3. MatskiMonk

    MatskiMonk Premium

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    Okay, accepting the points about the MiEx cars, it brings N500 back a little closer to the other lower N categories and doesn't really change Gr.X. I'm not going to subtract the expensive cars from the calculation since we don't actually know that as being a fact. I agree it's highly likely, but it's not known. Even if I did the shape of the graph doesn't really change, the game still really wants to give you Gr.3 cars, and not Gr.X cars so I broadly agree that it's weighted random with the bias being against Gr.2,1 and X, and in favour of Gr.3
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019
  4. iCyCo

    iCyCo

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    Just added my last entry, a Copen Active Top. this was especially painful because a 250 GTO was on the wheel....
     
  5. splitwindow

    splitwindow

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    By changing my time zone I was just now able to add almost 2 hours to my day and squeeze in that last 23rd car before beddy bye time.
    Edit: If I'd been willing to move to Samoa I could have added 3 hours.
     
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  6. kjeldsen

    kjeldsen

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    *EDIT*
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
  7. Tassie_tiger

    Tassie_tiger

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    Mission accomplished. :tup:

    Here's a breakdown of my 27 days of logging the Daily Marathon Wheel:

    Summary:
    Days/Prize Cars total: 27
    Different Manufacturers: 18

    N100: 2
    N200: 2
    N300: 6
    N400: 1
    N600: 2
    N700: 1
    Gr.1: 1
    Gr.3: 6
    Gr.4: 2
    Gr.B: 3
    Gr.X: 1

    Duplicates:
    Subaru - WRX STI Type S 2014 (N300) - x2
    Lamborghini - Huracan Gr.4 (Gr.4) - x2
    Renault Sport - R.S.01 GT3 (Gr.3) - x2


    All cars earned in Open Lobby: 1.5 laps of SSRX with Tomahawk X (4.5 minutes - no prize money)
    Total Prize value: 7.612 mill. Cr.
    Average Prize Car value: 282,000 Cr.
    Total time: 27 x 4.5 mins. = 121.5 mins.
    Prize Cr./min: 62,650
     
  8. sirjim73

    sirjim73

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    Looking at the list of Nxxx ratios, my instinct is that N200 is slightly too low and N600 and N700 are higher than they would be with a bigger sample. It's just supposition on my part but I think the actual ratio for Nxxx could be on a sliding scale from N100 down to N1000.

    It's almost as though, to my mind, that the game makes a first choice between Nxxx or GRxxx and then once it makes that choice it then it uses a different formula to arrive at the car you get.

    Of course, it could just be down to sun stroke from all the Easter sunshine here in the UK ... :lol:
     
  9. MidFieldMaven

    MidFieldMaven

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    My results from April 1 through today:

    5 - N200, Gr.X
    4 - Gr.3
    3 - N400
    2 - N100, Gr.4
    1 - N600
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019
  10. Gr4ndy

    Gr4ndy

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    Summary:
    Days/Prize Cars total: 23
    Different Manufacturers: 17

    5- GR3
    4- N600
    3- GR4, N400, N100
    2- GRX, N300
    1- N500

    New cars: 8
    Duplicates during April roulette: 2x Lamborghini Huracan GT3 2015
     
  11. Pigems

    Pigems

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    So, do I have to wait until 12:00am my time(EST) tonight, or until the game time of 0:00(1:00am my time) to get the final car? I’m assuming it’s 0:00 on the game clock right?
     
  12. Famine

    Famine Administrator

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    Game clock, yes. You could set your console's time zone as UTC/GMT and see if you can get it at 8pm your time.
     
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  13. Pigems

    Pigems

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    Thanks, I’ll see if I can figure out how to do that.
     
  14. Quakebass

    Quakebass

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    Man, had I known this I may have been able to avoid missing two days. Got home ~10 minutes before the rollover and wasn’t able to get the mileage in that time. This past Friday I actually paused and quit on my 2nd lap of Route X about five seconds before midnight, and it was just enough to net me 26.3 miles.

    Do you think you’ll keep this marathon testing open update by update? I’m very down to keep up the data pool if you think there’s more to learn.
     
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  15. Famine

    Famine Administrator

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    I reckon it'll be worth running one through May too, yeah.
     
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  16. daan

    daan Moderator

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    A new one, or a continuation? I missed today due to my PS4 not connecting.
     
  17. Mr P

    Mr P

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    So are we done with this today 22nd or do I still update after midnight as usual as the update is 4am in the UK? Thanks :tup:
     
  18. Famine

    Famine Administrator

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    If you can grab a car for April 23rd after midnight but before the update, please do. If you can't, stick it in May's thread :D
     
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  19. Pigems

    Pigems

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    Ok it’s after 8 here, what time zone is UTC/GMT that you mentioned above? I don’t see it in the PS4 menu.

    This is what I’m set to normally.

    27AB61E0-9D58-4DEC-A5DD-F191441018B0.jpeg

    Edit: Figured it out, the Tomahawk is running it’s two laps right now. Fingers crossed, The time says 00:21.

    DCEB84EC-082D-479F-8B2B-62F987092A75.jpeg

    Edit 2: 69.7 km driven and 0:31 reading on the game clock, no car spit out. Even loaded a sport mode time trial then backed out and nothing, that usually triggers it every time.

    Edit 3: Reset the PS4 and got the 23rd car. That car totally wasn’t worth the effort. :lol:
    7797975A-9217-4A59-A12C-F6F8199541BE.jpeg
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
  20. Mr P

    Mr P

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    Last one for this thread and got a Daihatsu Copen as the final car before the update woohoo!! :D

    ... onto the next :tup:
     
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  21. Dolph Drago

    Dolph Drago

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    Quick summary:

    22 cars
    20 Manufacturers

    6 - Gr.4
    4 - Gr.3, N200
    3 - N400
    1 - Gr.1, Gr.X, Gr.B, N300, N500

    April Dupes:
    0

    So...lots of different manufacturers, though they were hell bent on giving me Gr.4's. And probably most amazingly, I did not receive a single car more than once.
     
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  22. Dylan

    Dylan

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    Managed to not get any dupes during this test. It'd be cool if I managed to not get any repeats during the next test.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
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  23. GTsail

    GTsail Premium

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    Currently, after 2783 gifts, the gift car leader is still the:

    Lexus RCF GT3 Emil Frey Racing '17 with 27 gifts:drool::)

    second place with 24 gifts:
    --- Toyota FT-1 Vision GT (GR.3)


    two cars are in third place with 23 gifts:
    --- Citroen GT by Citroen Race Car GR.3
    --- Porsche 911 RSR '17 GR.3

    one car is in fifth place with 22 gifts:
    --- Mitsubishi Lancer EVO Final Ed. GR.3

    four cars are in sixth place with 21 gifts:
    --- Ferrari 458 Italia GT3 '13 GR.3
    --- Ford GT LM SpecII Test Car (GR.3)
    --- Lamborghini Huracan GR.4
    --- Mercedes Benz SLS AMG '10

    and six cars are in tenth place with 20 gifts:
    --- BMW Z4 GT3 '11
    --- Chevy Corvette C7 GR.3
    --- Nissan Skyline GTR VspecII Nur R34 '02
    --- Renault Sport Clio RS 220 EDC Trophy '15
    --- Subaru WRX STI Type S '14
    --- Toyota 86 GR.B Rally Car


    and eight cars are in sixteenth place with 19 gifts:
    --- Alpine A110 Premium Edition '17
    --- Daihatsu Copen Active Top '02
    --- Fiat 500F '68
    --- Mazda RX-7 GT-X '90
    --- McLaren 650S Coupe '14
    --- Peugeot Vision Gran Turismo GR.3
    --- Renault Sport R.S. 01 '16 (GR.X)
    --- Volkswagen 1200 '66

    and nine cars are in 24th place with 18 gifts:
    --- Aston Martin V8 Vantage S '15
    --- BMW M3 Sport Edition Evolution '89
    --- Lambo Huracan GT3 '15 (GR.3)
    --- Mercedes A45 AMG 4Matic '13
    --- Mercedes Benz SLR McLaren '09
    --- Porsche 911 GT3 RS (991) '16
    --- Porsche Cayman GT4 Clubsport '16
    --- Subaru Falken Tire Turn 14 BRZ '17
    --- Volkswagen Sambabus Typ 2 '62

    and nine cars are in 33rd place with 17 gifts:
    --- Dodge Viper SRT10 Coupe '06
    --- Honda NSX GR.B Rally Car
    --- Lexus RCF GR.4
    --- Lexus RCF GT3 Prototype Emil Frey Racing '16
    --- Peugeot 208 GTI by Peugeot Sport '14
    --- Porsche 911 GT3 (996) '01
    --- Toyota 86 GT '15
    --- Toyota Supra RZ '97

    --- Volkswagen GTI VGT GR.3

    Remaining car gift rankings:
    ------------------------------
    Gifts …………. Cars in
    received ……… Group
    -------------------------
    16 --------------- 19
    15 --------------- 17
    14 --------------- 29
    13 --------------- 19
    12 --------------- 18
    11 --------------- 14
    10 --------------- 7
    9 ----------------- 9
    8 ----------------- 3
    7 ----------------- 4
    6 ----------------- 8
    5 ----------------- 7
    4 ----------------- 5
    3 ----------------- 10
    2 ----------------- 25
    1 ----------------- 25
    0 ----------------- 19
    ----------------------
    Total ----------- 279


    As a group, we have received 260 of the game's cars

    The following is the list of the 19 cars we did not receive during this marathon:
    --- Alfa Romeo Giulia TZ2 Carrozzata da Zagato '65
    --- Alpine Vision Gran Turismo Race Mode
    --- Aston Martin DB3S CN.1 '53
    --- Aston Martin DP-100 Vision Gran Turismo
    --- Citroen GT by Citroen Road Car
    --- Ferrari 250 GT Berlinetta passo corto '61
    --- Ferrari 250 GTO CN.3729GT '62
    --- Ferrari 330 P4 '67
    --- Ford Mark IV Race Car '67
    --- Jaguar XJ13 '66
    --- Lamborghini Miura P400 Bertone Prototype '67
    --- McLaren P1 GTR '16
    --- Mercedes AMG F1 W08 EQ Power +
    --- Nissan Motul Autech GTR '16
    --- Nissan R92CP '92
    --- Peugeot Vision Gran Turismo GR.X
    --- Shelby Cobra Daytona Coupe '64
    --- Subaru Viziv GT Vision Gran Turismo
    --- VW GTI Roadster Vision Gran Turismo

    The above tabulation is current for this thread as of 60 minutes ago (1pm EST on 4/24/19), but I still expect a few changes as some additional data/clarifications are posted to this thread.
    1st edit update: Since 7am this morning (4/23/19), 9 cars have been posted to this thread so I have updated my totals which increases the total gifted cars from 2759 to 2768.

    2nd edit update: since yesterday,15 cars have been posted to this thread so I have updated my totals which increases the gifted cars from 2768 to 2783.<==This only caused some minor re-ranking of the favorite gifted cars. See spoiler below for the previous data table.

    the following is the previous data prior to the most recent 15 gift car posts:

    Currently, after 2768 gifts, the gift car leader is still the:

    Lexus RCF GT3 Emil Frey Racing '17 with 27 gifts:drool::)

    second place with 24 gifts:
    --- Toyota FT-1 Vision GT (GR.3)


    two cars are in third place with 23 gifts:
    --- Citroen GT by Citroen Race Car GR.3
    --- Porsche 911 RSR '17 GR.3

    three cars are in fifth place with 21 gifts:
    --- Ferrari 458 Italia GT3 '13 GR.3
    --- Mercedes Benz SLS AMG '10
    --- Mitsubishi Lancer EVO Final Ed. GR.3

    and eight cars are in eighth place with 20 gifts:
    --- BMW Z4 GT3 '11
    --- Chevy Corvette C7 GR.3

    --- Ford GT LM SpecII Test Car (GR.3)
    --- Lamborghini Huracan GR.4
    --- Nissan Skyline GTR VspecII Nur R34 '02
    --- Renault Sport Clio RS 220 EDC Trophy '15
    --- Subaru WRX STI Type S '14
    --- Toyota 86 GR.B Rally Car


    and eight cars are in sixteenth place with 19 gifts:
    --- Alpine A110 Premium Edition '17
    --- Daihatsu Copen Active Top '02
    --- Fiat 500F '68
    --- Mazda RX-7 GT-X '90
    --- McLaren 650S Coupe '14
    --- Peugeot Vision Gran Turismo GR.3
    --- Renault Sport R.S. 01 '16 (GR.X)
    --- VW 1200 '66

    and nine cars are in 24th place with 18 gifts:

    --- Aston Martin V8 Vantage S '15
    --- BMW M3 Sport Edition Evolution '89
    --- Lambo Huracan GT3 '15 (GR.3)
    --- Mercedes A45 AMG 4Matic '13
    --- Mercedes Benz SLR McLaren '09
    --- Porsche 911 GT3 RS (991) '16
    --- Porsche Cayman GT4 Clubsport '16
    --- Subaru Falken Tire Turn 14 BRZ '17
    --- VW Sambabus Typ 2 '62

    Remaining car gift rankings:
    ------------------------------
    Gifts …………. Cars in
    received ……… Group
    -------------------------
    17 --------------- 8
    16 --------------- 18
    15 --------------- 17
    14 --------------- 29
    13 --------------- 22
    12 --------------- 13
    11 --------------- 17
    10 --------------- 8
    9 ----------------- 9
    8 ----------------- 3
    7 ----------------- 3
    6 ----------------- 9
    5 ----------------- 7
    4 ----------------- 5
    3 ----------------- 10
    2 ----------------- 25
    1 ----------------- 25
    0 ----------------- 18
    ----------------------
    Total ----------- 278
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
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  24. GTsail

    GTsail Premium

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    Currently, after 2783 received gifts, the class breakdown is as follows:

    ------------------------------------------- Class
    ------------------------------ Cars ---- Cars with no
    Class .. Gifts .. Percent ... in Class --- gifts received
    ------ ------- ---------- ------------ ----------------
    GR.3 --- 577 --- 20.7% ----- 35
    GR.4 --- 371 --- 13.3% ----- 27
    N300 --- 365 --- 13.1% ----- 30 ----------- 1
    N200 --- 290 --- 10.4% ----- 22
    N400 --- 203 --- 7.3% ------ 20 ------------ 1
    N600 --- 195 --- 7.0% ----- 16
    N100 --- 190 --- 6.8% ----- 15
    GR.X --- 188 --- 6.8% ------ 54 ----------- 14
    GR.B --- 143 --- 5.1% ------ 10
    N500 --- 119 --- 4.3% ------ 12 ----------- 1
    N700 ---- 65 --- 2.3% ------- 6
    GR.1 ---- 42 --- 1.5% ------- 20 ----------- 1
    N800 ---- 21 --- 0.8% ------- 4
    GR.2 ---- 12 ---- 0.4% ------- 6 ------------ 1
    N1000 --- 2 ---- 0.1% ------- 2
    -------------------------------------------------
    Total -- 2783 …. 100% ….. 279 …….….. 19

    Note: For cars in class, I'm not counting the ten cars that I don't think can be received as gifts (the various road cars and safety cars).
    1st edit update: Since 7am this morning (4/23/19), 9 cars have been posted to this thread so I have updated my totals which increases the total gifted cars from 2759 to 2768.
    2nd edit update: since yesterday,15 cars have been posted to this thread so I have updated my totals which increases the gifted cars from 2768 to 2783.<==This only caused some minor re-ranking of the favorite gifted cars. See spoiler below for the previous table.

    the following is the data prior to the most recent 15 gift car posts:

    Currently, after 2768 received gifts, the class breakdown is as follows:
    ------------------------------------------- Class
    ------------------------------ Cars ---- Cars with no
    Class .. Gifts .. Percent ... in Class --- gifts received
    ------ ------- ---------- ------------ ----------------
    GR.3 --- 571 --- 20.6% ----- 35
    GR.4 --- 367 --- 13.3% ----- 27
    N300 --- 362 --- 13.1% ----- 30 ----------- 1
    N200 --- 290 --- 10.5% ----- 22
    N400 --- 202 --- 7.3% ------ 20 ------------ 1
    N600 --- 195 --- 7.0% ----- 16
    N100 --- 190 --- 6.9% ----- 15
    GR.X --- 188 --- 6.8% ------ 54 ----------- 14
    GR.B --- 143 --- 5.2% ------ 10
    N500 --- 118 --- 4.2% ------ 11
    N700 ---- 65 --- 2.3% ------- 6
    GR.1 ---- 42 --- 1.5% ------- 20 ----------- 1

    N800 ---- 21 --- 0.8% ------- 4
    GR.2 ---- 12 ---- 0.4% ------- 6 ------------ 1

    N1000 --- 2 ---- 0.1% ------- 2
    -------------------------------------------------
    Total -- 2768 …. 100% ….. 278 …….….. 18
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
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  25. floydant

    floydant

    Messages:
    64
    April Summary

    22 cars won

    Gr3 - 5 No.
    Gr4 - 3 No.
    N1000 - 1 No.
    N600 - 2 No.
    N500 - 1 No.
    N400 - 1 No.
    N300 - 4 No.
    N200 - 3 No.
    N100 - 2 No.

    Pretty good spread including one of only two N1000's recorded.
    Also a couple of non-dupes. No complaints from me.
     
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  26. seadog777

    seadog777 Premium

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  27. I-Runner

    I-Runner

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    I-R Summary (03/28->23/04):

    Days/Prize Cars total: 27

    6 - N200
    6 - N300
    4 - GR3
    3 - GR4
    3 - GRB
    2 - N500
    2 - N600
    1 - N800

    New cars: ZERO :lol:

    Duplicates during March-April roulette: 2x Peugeot 208 GTi by Peugeot Sport (N200)

    IR
     
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  28. TrafficEmpire

    TrafficEmpire

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    Am I correct in guessing that the N300 and N400 are the new 250 and the Miura, respectively?
     
  29. GTsail

    GTsail Premium

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    Correct, our April marathon group didn't received either the:
    --- N300 - Ferrari 250GT Berlinetta passo corto '61
    --- N400 - Lamborghini Miura P400 Bertone Prototype '67

    I will go back and list the missing 19 cars in my earlier post # 323
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
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  30. MrCooper

    MrCooper

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    I had the Jag in the wheel just yesterday. Didn't get it though, but I did win the Ferrari a while ago.