Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

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  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

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  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum

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UKMikey
presumably because the average income here isn't high enough to reliably vote Tory.
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Does seem to be a safer LAB seat than Uxbridge is CON.

Could be worse though. Hayes & Harlington requires only 6% of the electorate to swing from first party to second party in order to change colour... where I live it's 17%.
 
The UK Government's Brexit Minister says that failure to rip up the NI protocol would be a "historic misjudgement"

www.theguardian.com

Lord Frost: failure to rip up NI protocol would be ‘historic misjudgment’

Brexit minister questioned why the EU would not want to accommodate the unionist concerns
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Seriously, what the actual ****?!

Let's just run that by ourselves another time.

The UK Government's official position on their own Brexit agreement is that it would be historic misjudgement to keep it - an agreement that they collectively designed, campaigned on, and agreed to.

At least they have got something right for once - the NI protocol is indeed a historic misjudgement, but that is the price (well, one of them) of Brexit.
 
MatskiMonk
Does seem to be a safer LAB seat than Uxbridge is CON.

Could be worse though. Hayes & Harlington requires only 6% of the electorate to swing from first party to second party in order to change colour... where I live it's 17%.
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That kinda supports the point I was making re: gerrymandering. If Uxbridge is a safer CON seat now than it was before they jettisoned my ward. And I have no interest in voting to change the colour of Hayes to blue.
 
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I cannot stress my contempt for this bunch of clowns strongly enough, the AUP doesn't allow it...

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Northern Ireland's First Minister has resigned in protest of the continuing application of the Northern Ireland protocol, and quite pointedly in protest of the UK Government's failure to resolve the issue. It now emerges that Boris Johnson himself has conceded to the (former) FM that there is a slim chance of being able to renegotiate the NI protocol any time soon, and thus the FM responded by asking that Johnson followed through with his previous promise to unilaterally suspend the NI protocol under Article 16. Johnson has, of course, failed to reassure the FM that this is going to happen (as doing so would start a trade war with the EU), and so the FM has been left with little choice but to quit.

IMO, Brexit and the NI protocol in particular is the single biggest and most significant real-world manifestation of both Boris Johnson's incompetence and dishonesty.

Johnson repeatedly gave both UK voters and the people of NI assurances that there would "be no checks on goods" between GB and NI, but that is exactly what the NI protocol that he signed delivers and enshrines in international law.

The EU have made some concessions, recently claiming that some 80% of checks on goods can be removed in return for guarantees that unchecked goods do not enter Ireland, but in reality that is unlikely to happen - not because it is impossible, but because the UK Government have done virtually nothing to make it possible.

Bearing in mind that the NI protocol isn't even fully in effect yet, and you can get some idea of just how bad the issue is.

Frankly, I don't see how Boris Johnson could ever have hoped that this giant problem he and his followers have created was somehow just going to disappear.

The real problem for Johnson is that the UK needs to trade with the EU, but the EU can take the hit if EU-UK trade collapses (well, further than it already has) while the UK cannot. As such, Johnson has no leverage (and frankly never did) and hence he is left in an untenable situation - either the NI protocol remains (and UK-EU trade rumbles along uncomfortably) or the NI protocol is scrapped and triggers a full scale trade war between the UK and the EU which will damage both parties, but the UK will take a terrible hit.*

The full-blooded Brexiteers who promised that trade with the rest of the world would more than compensate for any lost trade with the EU have no answers - and, once again, they never really did. It was all smoke and mirrors, and now the chickens are about to come home to roost.

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* There are other options, but they will never be countenanced by Johnson or the Tories for one reason or another. Effectively, the UK would have to rejoin the Single Market - the dreaded 'Soft Brexit'. Not even Remain voters really wanted that either, but IMO it is likely to become an economic necessity, if not also a political one for the future of peace and stability in Northern Ireland.

When that penny drops, there's going to be ALOT of very unhappy Brexit voters - even more than there already is.

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Oh, and there's yet another complication - the more Johnson and the EU are able to accommodate NI as a joint EU Single Market/Uk Internal Market trading area, the more it becomes untenable to deny Scotland and Wales (or parts of England that may also wish to rejoin the Single Market) the same privilege.
 
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Dennisch
So, this time next year I'll be on the beach welcoming you guys back into the EU?
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That's probably a very long way off, but it is now virtually certain that Scotland will have another independence referendum, possibly even this year but probably next year, and Scotland will eventually vote to rejoin the Single Market at the very least.
 
Dennisch
So, this time next year I'll be on the beach welcoming you guys back into the EU?
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I don't think that will happen for a long, long time. Firstly, there's the general election in 2024, anybody wanting to table the idea would have to make it policy, and get elected by enough votes to ram through another referendum, which would likely take a couple of years IF they even had it as a policy, which would be tremendously risky for either of the two main parties. The Liberal Democrats could champion it, and perhaps get lucky with a swell of approval for it - but I doubt it would be enough to get in. Ending up in a situation like Theresa May found herself in, where a PM has a mandate, but too small of a majority to do anything with it could lead (potentially) to years of stalemate in parliament.

Then, there's the question of whether the people would vote for it or not if given another referendum - and what the terms set out by the EU would be.. I doubt we're getting back in without not only loosing the benefits we had, but making further concessions too. It could be a tougher sell than people imagine. We've seen which side the media will champion, and any bid to rejoin the EU is going to face a mountain of resistance and propaganda from the press every day.

If Touring Mars is correct, and there's a potential departure of Scotland from the United Kingdom in that time, that could change things too, and that's bound to fuel the flames of Irish reunification, would be a major headache for the government to even address.

I honestly don't see it happening.
 
There is also severe gaslighting in the presentation and framing of the FTAs that the UK has signed in the last two years; they're announced as though they are new now and were previously impossible. I have looked and asked for answers as to whether they are better than the ones the UK used to have as an EU member.

It's the underhandedness of "Hey, we have a free trade agreement with Greenland now! A Brexit benefit!" Well... we already had one, and more, so how is this one better than what we had previously?
 
Liquid
There is also severe gaslighting in the presentation and framing of the FTAs that the UK has signed in the last two years; they're announced as though they are new now and were previously impossible. I have looked and asked for answers as to whether they are better than the ones the UK used to have as an EU member.

It's the underhandedness of "Hey, we have a free trade agreement with Greenland now! A Brexit benefit!" Well... we already had one, and more, so how is this one better than what we had previously?
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It won't give you simple answers, but the specifics of trade for any/every commodity are part of the UK GOV integrated trade tariff tool.

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/find_commodity

It allows you to back date the date of trade so in theory you can see what the import/export duties/tariffs, conditions and notes were/are, but I'm not convinced it actually works... and of course, you have to select a commodity code to begin with, which can be a nightmare on its own.
 
Dennisch
So, this time next year I'll be on the beach welcoming you guys back into the EU?
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Unlikely. It might happen again in 20 or 30 years. What I do think will happen before then though is the UK (if it still exists in its current form) joining the Single Market.
 
Radioactive fish... the breakfast of champions and dinner of winners.

 
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Nagaremono
Just lovin all the the salty sore loser tears being shed. By grown men too. Supposedly.
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I'm a grown man, with legitimate deep grievances about how Brexit has affected my life. If you want to mock that, fine that's your call, it's probably to be expected from your demographic... but really all you're doing is confirming what's wrong with this country.


... thanks for the add though.
 
I don't know what he's gammin' on, I mean gannin' on about. Look how far we're ahead of Europe... in the poverty stakes.

briefing_43_UK_regions_poorest_North_Europe_1.jpg
 
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Liquid
The DUP have made their bed and now they're lying in it.
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The craziest thing is that Sinn Fein have risen to their highest point arguably on the back on British nationalism/separatism from the EU, that has already and will continue to cost everyone in NI (and the UK and to a lesser extent Ireland) very dearly for decades to come.

And yet, Sinn Fein literally means 'Ourselves Alone', and other likely benefactors from Boris and his cadre of Brexiteer nutjobs are Scottish and Welsh nationalists who (also somewhat ironically) want out of the UK political system in order to be able to rejoin the EU...

The SNP's own website explains (helpfully...) that 'many independent nations are part of the EU', but doesn't go into much detail as to how nationalism and "independence" are consistent with leaving the UK but not inconsistent with joining an even larger union.

That said, the current Tory government in charge of the UK right now is enough to make anyone wonder why the hell they still have to put up with this particular level of government, and rejoining the EU as an independent and equal partner nation state seems much more attractive than it ever was.

Ironically, it is the true 'independence'-mad loons of the Tory far-right that are driving the break-up of the UK - quite possibly entirely intentionally - and pushing other apparent independence parties towards rethinking what they really mean by independence...
 
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MatskiMonk
I'm a grown man, with legitimate deep grievances about how Brexit has affected my life. If you want to mock that, fine that's your call, it's probably to be expected from your demographic... but really all you're doing is confirming what's wrong with this country.


... thanks for the add though.
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Your life is your responsibility. Mine is mine. As a grown up, to succeed you just have to be able to adapt well to whatever circumstances democracy throws at you. Six years should be long enough for anyone.
 
MatskiMonk
Tell me you've got no skin in the game without telling me you've got no skin in the game.
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Wrong. I live in the UK and Brexit has made my life so much better. If some people don’t feel that way, well, swings and roundabouts, half full half empty and all that. Hope things improve for you soon.
 

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