Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

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Which of the following statements best reflects your views on Global Warming?


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What freedoms will we have on a planet where the conditions for viable crop growth occur in areas as small as today's oil fields?

You're aware that a small amount of warming from where we are now actually appears to improve global crop production?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesta...-warming-is-creating-perfect-crop-conditions/

It's a big, big step to get to the point where crop farming is near globally unviable. I wouldn't expect anyone to start worrying about that particular one until the planet is at least at the point where further warming would be detrimental.
 
You're aware that a small amount of warming from where we are now actually appears to improve global crop production?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesta...-warming-is-creating-perfect-crop-conditions/

It's a big, big step to get to the point where crop farming is near globally unviable. I wouldn't expect anyone to start worrying about that particular one until the planet is at least at the point where further warming would be detrimental.

I'm not sure how ideal "underwater" actually is though. In the UK and parts of mainland Europe it would be devastating.

And I'm not even sure the Californians agree that conditions are perfect even now. Of course, the Forbes forumeer who wrote the above article disagrees - he's a pretty rabid denier after all.

Fortunately for Science, however, the report he grossly misrepresents (no mods on Forbes, remember) is much more clear.
 
I'm not sure how ideal "underwater" actually is though. In the UK and parts of mainland Europe it would be devastating.
Exactly how high do you expect the oceans to rise? In order to devastate to this hyperbolic degree you are talking I think crop production will be the least of our worries, as our largest population centers would be under water.

And that kind of scenario assumes all the ice of Antarctica will melt. We are very. very. very. very. very far from that happening. You will need massive, permanent temperature changes to reach that point, well beyond what the global average is expected to increase.
 
DK
It doesn't seem so "perfect" for growing crops if you're Austalian: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-30225276

Where in that article does it mention crops? I've read it twice, and I must be missing it.

Yes, it gets very hot in summer. Yes, it's hotter than it has been. It's still surprising how many people are incapable of dealing with the heat. It gets over 40 pretty much every summer, and has done for as long as I've been alive. The article goes on about danger, and frankly it's about as dangerous as a big snowfall, ie. not at all if people are sensible. There are places that are much, much hotter than AU. Stay in the shade, drink lots of water, hide in the air con or a fan if you can, take lots of cool showers if you have to.

It's mildly unpleasant, but so is living in places where it's -10C or worse for most of the winter, and I don't see anyone rushing to point out how much those places would love it to be a little warmer. Swings and roundabouts, as far as personal comfort goes.
 
Exactly how high do you expect the oceans to rise? In order to devastate to this hyperbolic degree you are talking I think crop production will be the least of our worries, as our largest population centers would be under water.

And that kind of scenario assumes all the ice of Antarctica will melt. We are very. very. very. very. very far from that happening. You will need massive, permanent temperature changes to reach that point, well beyond what the global average is expected to increase.

So where do you put the people... and where do you then grow the food?

It's true that land is also rising in some places (Yorkshire continues to grow in height, stature and culinary excellence) but this doesn't mitigate against sea level rises.

What are your thoughts (and @Imari too) on this article? Go through the comments too, some good discussion in there. Note: The page took 2-or-3 goes before it would load, could be my connection here or their potato-server.
 
So where do you put the people... and where do you then grow the food?
Wait, are you sticking to the idea of every bit of ice melting off of Antarctica? I challenge your premise as hyperbolic and you just walk past that to "what do we do when it happens?"

I'm going off of what the IPCC is reporting as their most extreme estimate.
In 1995 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report which contained various projections of the sea level change by the year 2100. They estimate that the sea will rise 50 centimeters (20 inches) with the lowest estimates at 15 centimeters (6 inches) and the highest at 95 centimeters (37 inches). The rise will come from thermal expansion of the ocean and from melting glaciers and ice sheets.
37 inches would be the equivalent of major costal flooding. Nothing to laugh at but far from destroying crop production.

In that scenario, what we do with the people isn't as extreme as you seem to think. We have tons of unused space. And by unused, I mean no farming either. Even in our most densely packed urban areas we have three or four times as much space per person as some regions.

It won't even directly affect our most fertile farming regions in the US. The biggest effect on those would be rising rivers as they back up. Ultimately, that creates more wetlands and fertile lands.

What are your thoughts (and @Imari too) on this article? Go through the comments too, some good discussion in there. Note: The page took 2-or-3 goes before it would load, could be my connection here or their potato-server.
They question the IPCC. Is the IPCC wrong? Are they lying?

The odd bit is that they say the IPCC is being too conservative. Their highest increase shown is 3.2mm/yr. The average sea level rise of their data is roughly 2mm/yr. At 2mm/yr you get around the IPCC's lowest estimates. If we assume that the 3.2mm/yr becomes the average as the rate of increase increases you still don't get to the most extreme case the IPCC predicts. To reach the most extreme case the IPCC states would require an average 11mm/yr increase, more than five times the current rate.

Unfortunately, we are both looking at fairly old data, mine older than yours. But my point is that we are looking at an ultimate three-foot rise in sea level by 2100, in the absolute most extreme case. This is very far from The Day After Tomorrow.
 
So where do you put the people... and where do you then grow the food?

It's true that land is also rising in some places (Yorkshire continues to grow in height, stature and culinary excellence) but this doesn't mitigate against sea level rises.

What are your thoughts (and @Imari too) on this article? Go through the comments too, some good discussion in there. Note: The page took 2-or-3 goes before it would load, could be my connection here or their potato-server.

I want to know at least roughly how much the sea would have to rise for your apocalyptic scenario. Then I can decide whether we're having a conversation or just playing sounding board for propaganda.


To add to what Foolkiller said, the most recent IPCC report gives ranges for sea level rise in 2100 of between 0.52 and 0.98m with no emissions reductions at all. So basically still the same as what it was in 1995. Note that the estimates with drastic emissions reductions started pretty much immediately are 0.28 to 0.61m.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf

If you don't want to wade through the whole report, there's a decent summary article with graphs and stuff.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/10/sea-level-in-the-5th-ipcc-report/
 
@FoolKiller @Imari no, I'm not jumping to "all the ice going"... I didn't make a very clear opening in that post... in fact the ice figures are arguably less relevant than the expansion.

As levels rise we lose habitable land pretty quickly, at 4mm per year at the current rate and increasing. The figures I posted (or the figures in the link I posted) are very credible, you see there's an upcurve in readings. You'll also see that they cover entrapment in some detail, if those traps are taken into account the expansion curve is even higher.

@Imari's report shows a total-loss of ice (and a 9m) rise within a millenium, that's the most disastrous projection I've seen yet... so apocalypse within 1,000 years at the current rate, to answer your question.
 
Even a modest rise in sea levels (1.5m-3m) by 2100 would mean massive problems for coastal regions across the world, causing an increase in the frequency of severe flooding events and making some places effectively uninhabitable. It's not that people cannot move (as FK seems to recommend), it's the cost of doing so that needs to be considered.

As for the longer term impacts, the truth is that not enough people care. The science could be utterly convincing and settled (in favour of a warming scenario) and yet some people would simply dismiss it as 'not their problem'. The problem for everyone else is, they're right - it most likely will not be their problem, or their children's, or their grandchildren's... but that is not to say that the potential impacts should be ignored. Just as today's generation have a responsibility not to contaminate the planet forever with nuclear waste, we also share a responsibility not to set into motion physical processes that may be irreversible, or at least do irreversible damage, either to the planet itself or to the cities and infrastructure that mankind has laboured to produce.

Of course, whatever mankind can (and cannot) do to the climate system, Mother Nature can out-do by orders of magnitude... the hospitable/habitable regions of Earth today will not be in the future, regardless of whatever we have done/will do. The question is, however, are we absolutely certain that all past, current and near-future human activity is completely benign, and is it a safe assumption that there's nothing we can do to endanger our hospitable zones (which are predominately near water for obvious reasons) within a timescale that is too short for us to adequately mitigate against or affordably relocate? If anything, I think the current evidence points in the opposite direction - that there is good reason to not assume that our actions are irrelevant. But, no matter what the evidence turns out to say, the only responsible thing to do is to at least study this question, because (IMO) we cannot afford not to, hence why I cannot understand the attitude that we should stop funding climate research and concentrate on other things.
 
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Here is a bunch of apocalyptic talk about a catastrophic arctic meltdown and methane release that would unstoppably destroy civilization starting as soon as next year. Oh what joy - we needn't worry about WWIII after all. :D
http://ameg.me/
 
This link is mostly skeptical of global warming.
I'm in a "severe weather" meteorology class this semester, basically an introductory course. Yesterday our teacher, an Asian science guy who does research and all sorts of Asian science guy things, was lecturing about the history of earth's climate, specifically ice ages. He showed us a few graphs which illustrate the fact that we are currently on the tail end of an ice age.

Global warming exists, sure. The earth is getting warmer. But we should keep in mind that the era we currently live in is among the coolest periods the earth has seen. The only thing humanity can really do is slow down the inevitable global tragedy. If we did not exist and had never existed, the earth would still have about 15 degrees to go to complete this cycle, though it would normally take millions of years to do so.

Is the goal for us to effectively slow the inevitable? To reverse it? To maintain the current climate?
 
I think the problem is of reducing emissions will be made harder by the envitable growth of Africa and the industrialisation that will bring, you only have to look at China and India to see the example.

The contintent's population is increasing at such a rate that it's inevitable.
 
Scientists warn if we don't act now to stop global warming, Ice Road Truckers could be cancelled as early as 2030.

Such wisdom, wow. :rolleyes:
 
Scientists warn if we don't act now to stop global warming, Ice Road Truckers could be cancelled as early as 2030.
Honestly, it's bit scary to think that, there are still people who think that, it'd be the worst thing caused by the global warming.
 
And then Republican Politicians say that there is no such thing as global warming. A lot of the last 80 pages say that too... Then why is all the ice melting? :ouch:
Supposedly, it's building up at at the South Pole.
 
And then Republican Politicians say that there is no such thing as global warming. A lot of the last 80 pages say that too... Then why is all the ice melting? :ouch:
Quite the opposite. Most of what I've observed in this thread is people asserting that global warming absolutely happens. What they often contend is whether or not it's anthropogenic global warming.

It's a massive distinction.
 
Quite the opposite. Most of what I've observed in this thread is people asserting that global warming absolutely happens. What they often contend is whether or not it's anthropogenic global warming.

It's a massive distinction.
I said "a lot" doesn't mean most. Also I haven't visited this thread in a long time.
 
I said "a lot" doesn't mean most. Also I haven't visited this thread in a long time.
It wasn't so much a question of lesser or greater bias in numbers, but that you're possibly conflating opinions that have a distinct separation. Human driven warming vs warming disconnected from human behaviour. That it's the view for many here that the latter is the only cause for the phenomenon means that it would be largely a moot point for them - until those with the opposite view (or act as if they have the opposite view) propose measures that affect them, based on the opposite view.
 
And then Republican Politicians say that there is no such thing as global warming. A lot of the last 80 pages say that too... Then why is all the ice melting? :ouch:

Why does the ice melt in your freezer?

Is it because someone left the door open, or is it because your fridge is breaking down? Or a bit of both? Or something else entirely?

There's little debate about what is observed, because it's easy for anyone to go out and observe it. The temperature is what the temperature is, although there's room for error there too when you get things like urban heat islands.

There's a lot of debate on the why of what is observed, and for good reason. A lot of people forget that correlation is not causation, and that the whole system that drives our climate is a lot more complex than just anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
 
Is it because someone left the door open, or is it because your fridge is breaking down? Or a bit of both? Or something else entirely?
D: Something else entirely.

Modern refrigerators have a built in de-ice function.
In turn, it evaporates your ice cubes over time.
 

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