Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

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Which of the following statements best reflects your views on Global Warming?


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Source.

An ice island four times the size of Manhattan has broken off from one of Greenland's two main glaciers.

Scientists say the calving, discovered by the Canadian Ice Service on Thursday, is the biggest event of its kind in the Arctic in nearly 50 years.
A chunk of ice was predicted to come away from the Petermann Glacier - of the two largest remaining ones in Greenland - but never at this scale.
Nasa images show the island has an area of 100 square miles and a thickness up to half the height of the Empire State Building.
The island, which broke off on Thursday, will enter a remote place called the Nares Strait, about 620 miles south of the North Pole between Greenland and Canada.

Andreas Muenchow, professor of ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware, said the island's future course remains open.
It could fuse to land, break up into smaller pieces, or slowly move south where it could block shipping, he said.
Prof Muenchow said it is difficult to be sure the event occurred due to global warming because records on the sea water around the glacier have only been kept since 2003.
The flow of sea water below the glaciers is one of the main causes of ice calvings off Greenland.

BEFORE
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AFTER
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So, is this global warming or a natural occurrence? I'll let you all debate that one. :)
 
If it's the biggest in fifty years, then that means over fifty years ago, bigger chunks have broken off.

Which means what, exactly?

We've had horrible weather in the past few years... last year we had a flood that raised the local lake to its highest level in over 70 years. But what that means is that back around 1917 or so... the lake was actually higher. This is before large numbers of communities along the lakeshore dumped tons of garbage and sediment into the lake.
 
How long until we humans get blamed for this intense solar activity we're predicted to be getting in 2012?
 
How long until we humans get blamed for this intense solar activity we're predicted to be getting in 2012?

Only a liberal could feel such guilt! :D
But seriously, humans will have to accept responsibility for any technology adversely affected by putatively intense future solar activity.

Respectfully,
Dotini
 
We're predicted to get intense solar activity in 2012? We're still near solar minimum. Her's the current prediction:

ssn_predict_l.gif


The predict just keeps going down.
 
Fox news and Michio Kaku have been sensationalizing this a bit. But the effect of solar storms depends upon more than mere sunspot counts. Also important are the Earth's magnetic field, which has been weakening, and the number of satellites, transformers and other technologies which may prove vulnerable to such storms.
 
It is also worth bearing in mind that solar activity (in terms of the amount of energy that reaches us) varies only by ~0.1% during a complete solar cycle, from minimum to maximum, pretty much regardless of variations in sunspot maxima. Sunspot numbers provide a useful indicator of the state of the solar cycle, but they shouldn't be presented as if they make a great deal of difference to the amount of solar radiation reaching our planet, because they don't.
 
It is also worth bearing in mind that solar activity (in terms of the amount of energy that reaches us) varies only by ~0.1% during a complete solar cycle, from minimum to maximum, pretty much regardless of variations in sunspot maxima. Sunspot numbers provide a useful indicator of the state of the solar cycle, but they shouldn't be presented as if they make a great deal of difference to the amount of solar radiation reaching our planet, because they don't.

Except they do - because sunspots can help predict longterm trends in solar behavior. I don't know what "intense" solar activity Sureboss is referring to, but I haven't heard or seen anything about it. The sunspot chart above is me telling Sureboss that the sun has been quiet lately, and is expected to be quiet for this cycle.
 
It is also worth bearing in mind that solar activity (in terms of the amount of energy that reaches us) varies only by ~0.1% during a complete solar cycle, from minimum to maximum, pretty much regardless of variations in sunspot maxima. Sunspot numbers provide a useful indicator of the state of the solar cycle, but they shouldn't be presented as if they make a great deal of difference to the amount of solar radiation reaching our planet, because they don't.

Not much as a proportion of piggin' loads is still loads. In terms of the difference between minimum and maximum the Earth will receive an additional 16000 Terawatthours a day - the equivalent of the entire global annual electricity production, each day...
 
I've been off for a day winning another kart race (#5 of 8 this season) at Portland, but if I may I'd like to chip in on this very interesting solar business.

First, it's important to point out that CME's (solar storms) are unpredictable in their timing, direction and intensity. Also, the electrical energy they deliver to our surface, atmosphere and magnetosphere is over and above that of insolation (direct solar radiation).

Finally, and most intriguingly, there are several new ways just now being discovered by which the Sun affects the Earth and delivers energy to us. Here's just one, the "Flux Transfer Event", or FTE): http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30oct_ftes/

*Here's another: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/15oct_ibex/
This baby is incredible. A previously unsuspected filamentary field of energy and particle creation exists at the limits of the heliosphere. This band runs orthogonal to the galactic magnetic field!!

"We're missing some fundamental aspect of the interaction between the heliosphere and the rest of the galaxy. Theorists are working like crazy to figure this out."

We need to face the fact that the Sun in many ways remains mysterious to the world's best scientists. After all, that is the very reason why so much research and so many new satellites and observatories are being launched and dedicated at this very time to study our local star. The more I learn about the Sun, the more astonished I become about what yet remains to be learned. The next few years promise much new insight.

But beyond all the scientific excitement, the lesson under all this is a warning shot across the bows of those who so confidently assert that man is grossly responsible for global warming.

Humbly submitted and open to correction,
Dotini
 
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How long until this stuff gets written in high school text books?
 
How long until this stuff gets written in high school text books?

What's in Ohio's textbooks sometimes differs from what's found in Texas!

But here we are dealing with leading edge observations and theories. This is college graduate level material at the moment, unfortunately for those restricted to more introductory level media.

Respectfully,
Dotini
 
Except they do - because sunspots can help predict longterm trends in solar behavior. I don't know what "intense" solar activity Sureboss is referring to, but I haven't heard or seen anything about it. The sunspot chart above is me telling Sureboss that the sun has been quiet lately, and is expected to be quiet for this cycle.

It was on a documentary of some sort, and it was referring to Aurora as well iirc, I think it was Sky at Night, but not 100% on that. Maybe it was out of date data? Looking on Google I'm seeing some older stuff from NASA referring to it happening before this spike in 3 or so years.
 
Harold Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, former Chairman; Former member Defense Science Board, chmn of Technology panel; Chairman DSB study on Nuclear Winter; Former member Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards; Former member, President's Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee; Chairman APS study on Nuclear Reactor Safety Chairman Risk Assessment Review Group; Co-founder and former Chairman of JASON; Former member USAF Scientific Advisory Board; Served in US Navy in WW II; books: Technological Risk (about, surprise, technological risk) and Why Flip a Coin (about decision making)

From: Hal Lewis, University of California, Santa Barbara

To: Curtis G. Callan, Jr., Princeton University, President of the American Physical Society

6 October 2010

Dear Curt:

When I first joined the American Physical Society sixty-seven years ago it was much smaller, much gentler, and as yet uncorrupted by the money flood (a threat against which Dwight Eisenhower warned a half-century ago). Indeed, the choice of physics as a profession was then a guarantor of a life of poverty and abstinence---it was World War II that changed all that. The prospect of worldly gain drove few physicists. As recently as thirty-five years ago, when I chaired the first APS study of a contentious social/scientific issue, The Reactor Safety Study, though there were zealots aplenty on the outside there was no hint of inordinate pressure on us as physicists. We were therefore able to produce what I believe was and is an honest appraisal of the situation at that time. We were further enabled by the presence of an oversight committee consisting of Pief Panofsky, Vicki Weisskopf, and Hans Bethe, all towering physicists beyond reproach. I was proud of what we did in a charged atmosphere. In the end the oversight committee, in its report to the APS President, noted the complete independence in which we did the job, and predicted that the report would be attacked from both sides. What greater tribute could there be?

How different it is now. The giants no longer walk the earth, and the money flood has become the raison d'être of much physics research, the vital sustenance of much more, and it provides the support for untold numbers of professional jobs. For reasons that will soon become clear my former pride at being an APS Fellow all these years has been turned into shame, and I am forced, with no pleasure at all, to offer you my resignation from the Society.

It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford's book organizes the facts very well.) I don't believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.

So what has the APS, as an organization, done in the face of this challenge? It has accepted the corruption as the norm, and gone along with it. For example:

1. About a year ago a few of us sent an e-mail on the subject to a fraction of the membership. APS ignored the issues, but the then President immediately launched a hostile investigation of where we got the e-mail addresses. In its better days, APS used to encourage discussion of important issues, and indeed the Constitution cites that as its principal purpose. No more. Everything that has been done in the last year has been designed to silence debate

2. The appallingly tendentious APS statement on Climate Change was apparently written in a hurry by a few people over lunch, and is certainly not representative of the talents of APS members as I have long known them. So a few of us petitioned the Council to reconsider it. One of the outstanding marks of (in)distinction in the Statement was the poison word incontrovertible, which describes few items in physics, certainly not this one. In response APS appointed a secret committee that never met, never troubled to speak to any skeptics, yet endorsed the Statement in its entirety. (They did admit that the tone was a bit strong, but amazingly kept the poison word incontrovertible to describe the evidence, a position supported by no one.) In the end, the Council kept the original statement, word for word, but approved a far longer "explanatory" screed, admitting that there were uncertainties, but brushing them aside to give blanket approval to the original. The original Statement, which still stands as the APS position, also contains what I consider pompous and asinine advice to all world governments, as if the APS were master of the universe. It is not, and I am embarrassed that our leaders seem to think it is. This is not fun and games, these are serious matters involving vast fractions of our national substance, and the reputation of the Society as a scientific society is at stake.

3. In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. Effect on the APS position: none. None at all. This is not science; other forces are at work.

4. So a few of us tried to bring science into the act (that is, after all, the alleged and historic purpose of APS), and collected the necessary 200+ signatures to bring to the Council a proposal for a Topical Group on Climate Science, thinking that open discussion of the scientific issues, in the best tradition of physics, would be beneficial to all, and also a contribution to the nation. I might note that it was not easy to collect the signatures, since you denied us the use of the APS membership list. We conformed in every way with the requirements of the APS Constitution, and described in great detail what we had in mind---simply to bring the subject into the open.

5. To our amazement, Constitution be damned, you declined to accept our petition, but instead used your own control of the mailing list to run a poll on the members' interest in a TG on Climate and the Environment. You did ask the members if they would sign a petition to form a TG on your yet-to-be-defined subject, but provided no petition, and got lots of affirmative responses. (If you had asked about sex you would have gotten more expressions of interest.) There was of course no such petition or proposal, and you have now dropped the Environment part, so the whole matter is moot. (Any lawyer will tell you that you cannot collect signatures on a vague petition, and then fill in whatever you like.) The entire purpose of this exercise was to avoid your constitutional responsibility to take our petition to the Council.

6. As of now you have formed still another secret and stacked committee to organize your own TG, simply ignoring our lawful petition.

APS management has gamed the problem from the beginning, to suppress serious conversation about the merits of the climate change claims. Do you wonder that I have lost confidence in the organization?

I do feel the need to add one note, and this is conjecture, since it is always risky to discuss other people's motives. This scheming at APS HQ is so bizarre that there cannot be a simple explanation for it. Some have held that the physicists of today are not as smart as they used to be, but I don't think that is an issue. I think it is the money, exactly what Eisenhower warned about a half-century ago. There are indeed trillions of dollars involved, to say nothing of the fame and glory (and frequent trips to exotic islands) that go with being a member of the club. Your own Physics Department (of which you are chairman) would lose millions a year if the global warming bubble burst. When Penn State absolved Mike Mann of wrongdoing, and the University of East Anglia did the same for Phil Jones, they cannot have been unaware of the financial penalty for doing otherwise. As the old saying goes, you don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Since I am no philosopher, I'm not going to explore at just which point enlightened self-interest crosses the line into corruption, but a careful reading of the ClimateGate releases makes it clear that this is not an academic question.

I want no part of it, so please accept my resignation. APS no longer represents me, but I hope we are still friends.

Hal

Harold Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, former Chairman; Former member Defense Science Board, chmn of Technology panel; Chairman DSB study on Nuclear Winter; Former member Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards; Former member, President's Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee; Chairman APS study on Nuclear Reactor Safety Chairman Risk Assessment Review Group; Co-founder and former Chairman of JASON; Former member USAF Scientific Advisory Board; Served in US Navy in WW II; books: Technological Risk (about, surprise, technological risk) and Why Flip a Coin (about decision making)


Pretty powerful stuff if you ask me.

This was posted on the Global Warming Policy Foundation website here: http://thegwpf.org/ipcc-news/1670-hal-lewis-my-resignation-from-the-american-physical-society.html
 
I came across a video from what appears to be a real organization. At first, I thought it was some sort of sarcastic right wing joke, but after watching to the end, I think not.

 
That group looks like either a sarcastic right wing joke, or a group of crazy far left nutjobs.
 
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/2010-tied-earths-hottest-year-record-noaa-reports/

2010 and 2005 were the two hottest years since records have been kept. Not saying it means anything or why it happens. Just another stick in the sand to ponder as we shiver in the cold. Note also that 2010 was the wettest year on record. Currently there is flooding in the antipodes of Australia, Ceylon and Brazil.

NOAA is no longer trust worthy in my book after Anthony Watt's investigation into their weather station elimination.
 
If people are worried about environmentalism, then maybe they should stop Pakistan from crushing imported bottles of alcohol. It too resources and stuff to make this alcohol. Probably some electricity from coal-fired power plants. Then it had to be shipped places, burning valuable fossil fuels.

And now Pakistan is crushing them before they're used for their intended purpose, all because it's against their religion or some goofy thing like that. You'd think at least they could be clever and resell it. Make some money instead of wasting resources.

jan4f.jpg
 
If people are worried about environmentalism, then maybe they should stop Pakistan from crushing imported bottles of alcohol. It too resources and stuff to make this alcohol. Probably some electricity from coal-fired power plants. Then it had to be shipped places, burning valuable fossil fuels.

And now Pakistan is crushing them before they're used for their intended purpose, all because it's against their religion or some goofy thing like that. You'd think at least they could be clever and resell it. Make some money instead of wasting resources.

I'd imagine that's what Charlie Sheen's intervention would look like.

On that note; "I get it, I really do. Hot weather means the climate is changing. Cold weather means the climate is changing. Dry weather means we must brace for more climate change; floods mean the change is at hand. Sometimes it takes a little extra work to get it all clear in my head, but I manage. After scientists told me that climate change was bringing us more hurricanes and stronger ones, I was a little confused with our quiet season last fall. I expect the answer is a simple one: busy hurricane seasons mean climate change is coming; quiet hurricane seasons mean it is already under way"
 
I think it's pretty clear that the average global temperature is going up and the sea levels are rising. The only really plausible explanation right now is increasing greenhouse effect. I know the sun has cycles, but they're only 10-11 years long so couldn't account for the 100 year warming trend.

The only real scientific debate is what should we do about it. Cutting carbon emissions is a long term solution but it probably wont help us much in the next 50-100 years. I think we will need something more drastic to reduce the amount of energy that enters our atmosphere in the short term.
 
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