GT5's Commercial Success

  • Thread starter Thread starter Daverytimes
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It's a tough one to call, because if you look at the week one sales of the Gran Turismo series in Japan, the pattern is as follows (source: VGChartz):

GT1 - 0.67m
GT2 - 0.86m
GT3 - 0.56m
GT4 - 0.67m

GT1 and GT3 represent the first releases on new SONY hardware, and are lower than GT2 and GT4 respectively. You would expect this given that early games have a smaller hardware base, so will that pattern continue for GT5? Possibly.

Not many games in Japan seem to top 0.5m units, but hardware sales and sales of games like FFXIII show that the potential is there in Japan. So, putting Japan at an estimated 0.5m week one sales for GT5, and using similar sales ratios of GT4 for the rest, I arrive at the following:

Europe/other - 0.8m
US - 0.6m
JP - 0.5m
Global - 1.9m

It seems like a lot, but the sales potential is there, and you only have to look at sales of past full GT games to know how popular it is, especially in Europe.

I would estimate that representing a staggered release. However, if it were a global release with properly targeted promotion, and yes, the use of Top Gear in the UK, I would not be surprised to see week one sales top 2m.
 
TokyoD has a solid grasp of the buying dynamic, but I think the hunger for GT5 is going to be particularly acute this time. I expect sales to be a bit more like this:

Europe/other - 1.3m
US - 0.9m
JP - 0.7m
Global - 2.9m though I do think it has the potential to top three mil the first week.

If it releases in the Orient first, with a staggered release in other regions some months later, I expect first week sales to be 1.5 million.
 
Yep, I would agree that the "hunger factor" could shift things that way, and I did consider that. However, there is also the "frustration factor" that currently exists, and I know a few people that have sold up and moved to Microsoft. Now, they may well hook up with a PS3 again later on, but not on day one. This is the exception rather than the norm for sure, but something to bear in mind.

I guess if you look at games like GTAIV and COD:MW2, highly anticipated games can shift 2.5 - 3 million quite easily in the first week, but is the racing genre as popular as that, even for GT5? I'm not sure, but 2.5 million is certainly not unreasonable, depending on if it is a staggered or global release.
 
And don't forget that MS might pull something out on GT5 release, you never know. They always like to mess with every PS3 exclusive release. e.g. ME 2 vs MAG. Maybe Halo vs GT5? Anyone? It might affect GT5 sale if some top sellers were release in the same date as GT5. It might not affect the total sale, but the first day sale record is whats important to them. You don't think MS will just let their HALO 3 precious world record get's beat will they? I doubt.
 
TokyoDrift
I guess if you look at games like GTAIV and COD:MW2, highly anticipated games can shift 2.5 - 3 million quite easily in the first week, but is the racing genre as popular as that, even for GT5? I'm not sure, but 2.5 million is certainly not unreasonable, depending on if it is a staggered or global release.
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You just pointed something interesting, racing games are not popular as first person shooters like MW2 ( which I own and love, nice game ), but most of the guys I know will buy the game to play on standard physics and admire the cars. Not only racing fans will buy it, but many casual players will do it too, because GT5 will be the hottest game when it ships. ;)

Regarding pre-ordering I don't know what to do yet, I will have to wait at least 2 weeks for it. But I'm not intending to spend more than U$60 in it, only if really exist a "Premium Version", which I think is unlikely to happen.
 
I think some of you are a bit off the deep end when talking 1st day or 1st week sales. It will sell very well at the start but GT is pretty much a slow burner and that's not a bad thing at all. The numbers will pile up but it will take some time.
 
I think the most impressive numbers generated by GT5 will be the huge spike in PS3 sales that happen along with launch. I have three friends who plan on buying a PS3 when GT5 launches. This is easily Sony's biggest franchise, and will move consoles like crazy.
 
ralph89
And don't forget that MS might pull something out on GT5 release, you never know. They always like to mess with every PS3 exclusive release. e.g. ME 2 vs MAG. Maybe Halo vs GT5? Anyone? It might affect GT5 sale if some top sellers were release in the same date as GT5. It might not affect the total sale, but the first day sale record is whats important to them. You don't think MS will just let their HALO 3 precious world record get's beat will they? I doubt.
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Definitly true, thats probably why they havent set a realese date for Halo Reach, there is no doubt that halo reach will sell more copies in the first 24 hours than GT5
 
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TokyoDrift
It's a tough one to call, because if you look at the week one sales of the Gran Turismo series in Japan, the pattern is as follows (source: VGChartz):

GT1 - 0.67m
GT2 - 0.86m
GT3 - 0.56m
GT4 - 0.67m

GT1 and GT3 represent the first releases on new SONY hardware, and are lower than GT2 and GT4 respectively. You would expect this given that early games have a smaller hardware base, so will that pattern continue for GT5? Possibly.

Not many games in Japan seem to top 0.5m units, but hardware sales and sales of games like FFXIII show that the potential is there in Japan. So, putting Japan at an estimated 0.5m week one sales for GT5, and using similar sales ratios of GT4 for the rest, I arrive at the following:

Europe/other - 0.8m
US - 0.6m
JP - 0.5m
Global - 1.9m

It seems like a lot, but the sales potential is there, and you only have to look at sales of past full GT games to know how popular it is, especially in Europe.

I would estimate that representing a staggered release. However, if it were a global release with properly targeted promotion, and yes, the use of Top Gear in the UK, I would not be surprised to see week one sales top 2m.
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Nice stats 👍
 
I've got no stats to back me up but I would say that metal gear is the main franchise for Sony. At a guess.
 
I have my bets the overall sales will be well over 8 million.

1. GT5P outsold most PS3 exclusives alone, and it's just a fraction of GT5

2. The GT series has a huge following, about 13 years. By now it has garnered numerous fans and despite the delays I am sure it will make 1 million at least within the 1st week. (Read my next point to see how)

3. God of War 3 sold 1 million in it's first week, and it is a PS3 exclusive, an M rated one, and despite the smaller userbase, it outsold the previous two games' first week sales.

4. There will undoubtedly be tons of advertising close to release. It won't be hard to do so since racing games cater for all ages so there would be no censoring bullcrap
 
Spagetti69
I've got no stats to back me up but I would say that metal gear is the main franchise for Sony. At a guess.
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It isn't made by a Sony-owned studio, and look at the best selling games on all the Sony consoles. The best selling PS1 game was the first GT, with GT2 coming in third, the second and third best selling PS2 games were GT3 and GT4, the best selling PS3 game is GT5P. 55 million GT games have been sold, which is more than double the sales figures of the Metal Gear series. And there's also how when Sony needed something to get people to buy the PSP Go at launch, they gave away free copies of GTPSP.

Hell, if GT wasn't Sony's favorite child, they wouldn't have allowed Polyphony to spend six years and 60 million dollars (so far) making GT5.
 
Wow, i didn't know Prologue was the best selling game on PS3, i knew it did quite well.
That sort of proves it then that a glorified demo ( not meant negative ) of GT5 is already the biggest selling title and hearing a lot of people still wait for the full game before purchasing a PS3, it might actually be their biggest and most important game.
 
analog
Wow, i didn't know Prologue was the best selling game on PS3, i knew it did quite well.
That sort of proves it then that a glorified demo ( not meant negative ) of GT5 is already the biggest selling title ...
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:grumpy: at that ^^. just kidding mate, I know you've got your point and I sort of agree, they just released what they have done at the moment, packaged it and sold.

If they didn't release GT5P, Forza and XBOX would have won more customers, I'm talking by myself, because GT5P was the main reason ( among with MGS4 ) for me to buy a PS3.
 
Spagetti69
I've got no stats to back me up but I would say that metal gear is the main franchise for Sony. At a guess.
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Metal Gear is a Konami franchise not a Sony franchise.
 
Dan_
You just pointed something interesting, racing games are not popular as first person shooters like MW2 ( which I own and love, nice game ), but most of the guys I know will buy the game to play on standard physics and admire the cars. Not only racing fans will buy it, but many casual players will do it too, because GT5 will be the hottest game when it ships. ;)

Regarding pre-ordering I don't know what to do yet, I will have to wait at least 2 weeks for it. But I'm not intending to spend more than U$60 in it, only if really exist a "Premium Version", which I think is unlikely to happen.
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Oh I'm absolutely sure that FPS games rank higher in the popularity stakes than racing games, but as you imply, GT5 isn't just any other racer. I know a few people who are rather experimental in their approach to buying games, and take the attitude that if a game sells really well, and gets consistently good reviews, there must be something to it, even if it's not their favourite genre. So, their games library pretty much represents the top selling games on each platform! GT5 will be the defining racer on PS3, and so they will buy it just because it has that accolade.

Daverytimes
Nice stats 👍
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Why thank ya' ;)

analog
Wow, i didn't know Prologue was the best selling game on PS3, i knew it did quite well.
That sort of proves it then that a glorified demo ( not meant negative ) of GT5 is already the biggest selling title and hearing a lot of people still wait for the full game before purchasing a PS3, it might actually be their biggest and most important game.
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Prologue is/was not the best selling game on PS3:

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?console=PS3

However, for what is essentially a game demo, yes, it did very well indeed. If we are just talking about SONY owned games, the chartz above show Resistance to be the winner, but only by a small margin.
 
I wouldn't doubt that MS will try and one-up GT5. As SONY did by unfairly dangling the prospect of a November release of GT5 in front of us last year, when Dan Greenawalt was practically yelling at everyone how much better Forza 3 was than God.

But keep one fact in mind. Outside of America, the UK and Australia, Microsoft is irrelevant. The GameCube was perceived to be a failure to Nintendo, and yet it sold more GameCubes and had more million seller games than MS did with the XBox. And even with the PS3 being more expensive by far out of the gate in 2006, it sold at a higher rate than the 360 at just about every point in its life.
 
Yeah, but in terms of total sales, Xbox 360 still leads the way, largely due to its 1 year head start of course. Still, I'm not sure what Microsoft can do to really 1up SONY and their GT5 release now - it's not like they have got another [new] racer to go head-to-head with, and even if they did, so what? This is why I think that in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter when SONY release GT5 - it will sell anyway.
 
Why do you guys use vgchartz numbers? Their numbers are never near accurate.
 
Bandit6
Why do you guys use vgchartz numbers? Their numbers are never near accurate.
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Why do people question what other people use, yet fail to provide alternative, more accurate sources of information with hard facts to back them up?

Personally, I used VGChartz because I am not interested in outright accuracy. I was using them as a guide and to get an idea of the relative sales per region and from version to version.

Honestly though, does it really matter? It's not like lives are at stake if we get our guestimates wrong.
 
TokyoDrift
Why do people question what other people use, yet fail to provide alternative, more accurate sources of information with hard facts to back them up?

Personally, I used VGChartz because I am not interested in outright accuracy. I was using them as a guide and to get an idea of the relative sales per region and from version to version.

Honestly though, does it really matter? It's not like lives are at stake if we get our guestimates wrong.
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Well if guess if you are not trying to be at all accurate then it doesn't really matter.
 
Bandit6
Well if guess if you are not trying to be at all accurate then it doesn't really matter.
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Yep, so anyway, where are these more accurate sources of information you speak of? I'm genuinely interested to know.
 
TokyoDrift
Yep, so anyway, where are these more accurate sources of information you speak of? I'm genuinely interested to know.
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I'm not interested in the accuracy of VGChartz, but it's a good guide which enables you to have a general idea of how much success a given game had. It's ok to use VGChartz to me. 👍

GT3 just surprised me, almost fifteen million copies? My God, GT5 will hit the ten million copies mark, as GT5P did over 3,5 million, I think PD has already paid the development costs for the full game, so it will be a Win or Win to Sony, any GT5 sales mean profit, also, leverage PS3 and DFGT sales ( someone pointed that Sony wins a small part of the profit from the DFGT as it has the GT logo embossed and it's marketed as the official wheel of GT5, I just don't remeber where and when ).
 
Dan_
I'm not interested in the accuracy of VGChartz, but it's a good guide which enables you to have a general idea of how much success a given game had. It's ok to use VGChartz to me. 👍

GT3 just surprised me, almost fifteen million copies? My God, GT5 will hit the ten million copies mark, as GT5P did over 3,5 million, I think PD has already paid the development costs for the full game, so it will be a Win or Win to Sony, any GT5 sales mean profit, also, leverage PS3 and DFGT sales ( someone pointed that Sony wins a small part of the profit from the DFGT as it has the GT logo embossed and it's marketed as the official wheel of GT5, I just don't remeber where and when ).
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Exactly, they are just a guide.

Yeah, GT5P doing over 3.5m is quite astonishing really. Not sure if that figure is both Blu-ray and PSN downloads combined, or just retail Blu-ray, but either way, it will have generated a big chunk of cash for SONY. I'm not sure it will have covered the $60m+ development costs as that would mean SONY taking approximately $18 net profit after tax per sale, but really I've no idea what cut developers and publishers take on game sales!
 
Bandit6
Why do you guys use vgchartz numbers? Their numbers are never near accurate.
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If you have a better source of historical data, please provide it.

And yes, their figures are usually near accurate.
 
Tenacious D
I wouldn't doubt that MS will try and one-up GT5. As SONY did by unfairly dangling the prospect of a November release of GT5 in front of us last year, when Dan Greenawalt was practically yelling at everyone how much better Forza 3 was than God.

But keep one fact in mind. Outside of America, the UK and Australia, Microsoft is irrelevant. The GameCube was perceived to be a failure to Nintendo, and yet it sold more GameCubes and had more million seller games than MS did with the XBox. And even with the PS3 being more expensive by far out of the gate in 2006, it sold at a higher rate than the 360 at just about every point in its life.
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Actually Microsoft is relevant in those places but the Xbox 360 Is the irrelevant thing.
 
Spagetti69
Personally I don't think it will beat COD and GTA in the UK. Just my opinion.
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Me neither, times have changed sony and gt5 are no longer the top dogs in consoles or race games.
The majority of gamers prefer rpg / fps style games nowdays or family friendly style gaming as proven by the success of the wii.
I will be suprised if sony /pd even get back the cost of making the game.
 
SCUD77
Me neither, times have changed sony and gt5 are no longer the top dogs in consoles or race games.
The majority of gamers prefer rpg / fps style games nowdays or family friendly style gaming as proven by the success of the wii.
I will be suprised if sony /pd even get back the cost of making the game.
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I don't know much about brits, but what I do know is that they love cars and motorsport, so GT5 will be a must have title. Beating MW2 or not, it will sell relatively well around the world I believe.
 
SCUD77
Me neither, times have changed sony and gt5 are no longer the top dogs in consoles or race games.
The majority of gamers prefer rpg / fps style games nowdays or family friendly style gaming as proven by the success of the wii.
I will be suprised if sony /pd even get back the cost of making the game.
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Don't think there is any less interest in GT5 or a good driving sim in general nowadays and i'm quite sure it will still make them a huge profit.
The majority of gamers might indeed prefer RPG/FPS to driving/racing games and the clever thing Nintendo did was creating a cross-generational concept which tapped into a whole new demographic who might otherwise not even considered to play a game.
A large amount of those RPG/FPS crowd will still be interested in GT5 or similar and apart from the loyal fans you should not discount the number of people who are petrolheads and not necessarily purely gamers.
 
Spagetti69
I've got no stats to back me up but I would say that metal gear is the main franchise for Sony. At a guess.
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You got it wrong, GT has been Sony's Flagship since the days of the PS1
 
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