Yes, it does. If he aquaplaned, it means he went off the track, unable to stop or steer. Therefore, if he went off the track two metres before the place he actually did go off, he would have hit the barrier in a different spot. The problem with the theory that he aquaplaned is that it's quite obvious from the video that he is going very quickly - he's carrying enough speed that the rear wheels of the tractor lift off the ground. He's travelling at the kind of speed that he would be carrying into Dunlop. If he aquaplaned there, he would have travelled in a straight line, and he would have missed the tractor entirely. But if he turned in and found he had no brakes, he would have carried enough speed and steering lock to make it most of the way around the corner, only to understeer off, having straightened the wheels to take the load off the front tyres and let the inertia carry him around the corner.
Unless you think he could have aquaplaned off the racing line going uphill and around a corner.