Most commentators on this are speculating that Warzone remain multi-platform, with the annual CoD title itself going Xbox exclusive and popping up on Gamepass.Absolutely, there'd be some. There are some valid concerns about anti-trust WRT how much Microsoft has bought out developers, and the Kotick conundrum (which was already pretty cut and dry in terms of a resolution) but if anybody actually thinks that COD or Overwatch are going exclusive at any point then they are wrong. Likewise, pretty certain both parties more or less confirmed that the main intent of this deal is metaverse related, with King being a secondary benefit. The actual game franchises? Basically bonuses.
If the metaverse angle is the filet mignon, and the mobile potential the baked potato, then the franchises themselves are basically the side salad. And I seriously doubt that either of the two biggest names in this scenario go Xbox exclusive. But really...it all hinges on Sony. Considering how much the split in terms of player base on COD on console was titled towards Playstation (after it was the other way around for much of the previous generation by way of the DLC exclusivity arrangement with Microsoft) does Sony really believe that burning that potential player base simply because Microsoft is a publisher on the boot up screen is a good thing? They'd be absolutely silly to.
Even the worst COD title (which you could make the argument Vanguard is) is still a guaranteed top 3 seller on a console marketplace. Hell, pretty certain MW19 was still in the top 10 for PSN digital sales for 2021, and that was before the Vanguard integration borked the game hard. That's a lot of money to leave on the table if you are Sony, since it's clear Microsoft stopped giving a **** about appearing on other platforms.
With Gamepass being the ultimate driver behind that and MS potentially trying to use it as leverage to get Sony to allow Gamepass on Playstation.
Is this speculation too far? Maybe, but one thing the industry has is a track record of big upsets coming out of nowhere. Let's me honest even after MS bought Bethesda no one had this on the cards as the next move, in the same way that Sony entering the market back in the '90s and then going on to turn Sega from a hardware giant to a multi-platform publisher was about as leftfield as it gets.
In my mind this purchase is potentially the start of a change to the industry on that kind of scale, note that I'm not saying that it will kill of Sony from a hardware perspective, just that what we see in the next few years I believe will be of that kind of scale.