New 2020 Tesla Roadster

With electric power, every advantage is extremely important when it comes to increasing range. If they can extend the overall range by just a couple of miles, it's worth it since that seems to be the biggest sticking point with EVs.

I agree the car doesn't look particularly interesting, but if they want to hit 600 miles of range and 250 mph, the aerodynamics need to be on point.
The upper body surface of electric vehicles also tends to have a bigger impact on the drag than it would on a comparable ICE car because of the reduced need for air openings and greater ease of having an enclosed underbody. By increasing the overall efficiency, you make small inefficiencies relatively more costly.
 
Is it that simple when it comes to the range an electric car can drive with certain batteries? With a gasoline/diesel engine; the same car, same weight, same conditions, but with 50L fuel tank and the after that the same car with 100L fuel tank doubles the amount of km this car can drive (or is it ride), theoretically. But is it with electric cars and batteries as simple and straight forward as with ICE's? It should but I wonder ..............
Pretty much, all other things being equal. You have double the energy storage so for a given energy usage, you'll go twice as far.

At low speeds weight will also have an effect and at higher ones (40mph-onwards) aerodynamics will.

So if the Roadster is lighter (which it probably would be) and more aerodynamic (could go either way, as long, fastback-style cars like the Model S are potentially more aerodynamic than shorter cars like the Roadster - though the sports car will have a smaller frontal area to benefit it too), then the range could be fairly realistic.

Of course, Musk can say pretty much any old thing at the moment because Tesla doesn't even have to think about supplying cars to customers for another three years or so.
 
We should also remember that a growing market will fuel innovation. As electric vehicles become more attractive and viable, more companies will get on board etc. Last time i checked when the first ICE's were developed we weren't getting 36 mpg and 200 mph top speeds... so why are we expecting EV's to be perfect immediately? (i know they have been around for a while, however the "EV age" is really just winding up). Innovation will bring EV's to the forefront IMO, especially with the tech around the corner.
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/16037/...ad-to-500-mile-ev-range-1-minute-charge-times

Not to mention, by 2020 Mercedes, BMW, Porche, Nissan, (maybe others) will be in FE further developing their EV lines. Also, i highly recommend looking at Tesla's business model... they aren't trying to make money... yet. IMO they are very smart, they understand the market is still evolving and they are simply trying to get themselves to the point that when EV's become our mainstream form of transportation, they will own a huge portion of the market and will be able to compete on the same scale as GM, Toyota, etc. very similar to the Amazon example...

Tesla i'snt going away, and i don't think that's a bad thing. I too love a loud exhaust note, heel toe braking, and dropping a gear in a tunnel, and i pray that these fundamentals are maintained in the future. However, the future of transportation will move on, and i think it may be a case of assimilation or death... This is all IMO, however it seems to be where the market is heading.
 
Also, i highly recommend looking at Tesla's business model... they aren't trying to make money... yet.
That's all very well, but ultimately a business has to start making money before it has no more money left to burn. Tesla Motors has now been around 14 years and has only ever been profitable over brief periods. And none of those periods were from selling cars - they've been from selling EV credits to other automakers trying to avoid fines, and from an IPO. They've been sustaining themselves on borrowing and occasionally topping up with customer deposits. Which is fine, until they can't borrow any more and until customers get sick of waiting for their cars and go somewhere else.

The next few years will probably be very tough for Tesla unless they can start cranking out Model 3s a lot quicker and actually start making money from selling in volume - and at a suitable quality level so they don't find themselves on the other end of a class action lawsuit. They must also do this at a time when other manufacturers are finally starting to make progress on their own EVs.

It's highly unlikely Tesla will ever own a "huge portion of the market", as the market itself is getting bigger all the time. Even up until now they've not had the lion's share of the market - Nissan (and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi) has been the world's biggest producer of EVs since the Leaf first emerged, and that trend is unlikely to change any time soon either.

I want to see Tesla do well. They've undoubtedly kick-started plenty of other manufacturers into their own EV programs and have done very well to last as long as they have in an increasingly tough automotive market.

But too much of what the company (and more specifically Musk) does seems like a big game of smoke and mirrors. It's very clever, and it's sure as hell enough to fool the cult-like legions of dyed-in-the-wool Tesla followers into thinking the company can do no wrong, but unless Tesla quits teasing new models and instead gets its act into gear with the Model 3 and starts making money, then reality will hit home pretty hard.
 
That's all very well, but ultimately a business has to start making money before it has no more money left to burn. Tesla Motors has now been around 14 years and has only ever been profitable over brief periods. And none of those periods were from selling cars - they've been from selling EV credits to other automakers trying to avoid fines, and from an IPO. They've been sustaining themselves on borrowing and occasionally topping up with customer deposits. Which is fine, until they can't borrow any more and until customers get sick of waiting for their cars and go somewhere else.

The next few years will probably be very tough for Tesla unless they can start cranking out Model 3s a lot quicker and actually start making money from selling in volume - and at a suitable quality level so they don't find themselves on the other end of a class action lawsuit. They must also do this at a time when other manufacturers are finally starting to make progress on their own EVs.

It's highly unlikely Tesla will ever own a "huge portion of the market", as the market itself is getting bigger all the time. Even up until now they've not had the lion's share of the market - Nissan (and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi) has been the world's biggest producer of EVs since the Leaf first emerged, and that trend is unlikely to change any time soon either.

I want to see Tesla do well. They've undoubtedly kick-started plenty of other manufacturers into their own EV programs and have done very well to last as long as they have in an increasingly tough automotive market.

But too much of what the company (and more specifically Musk) does seems like a big game of smoke and mirrors. It's very clever, and it's sure as hell enough to fool the cult-like legions of dyed-in-the-wool Tesla followers into thinking the company can do no wrong, but unless Tesla quits teasing new models and instead gets its act into gear with the Model 3 and starts making money, then reality will hit home pretty hard.

Excellent post, and I will add that there is no rule that says that car manufacturers will live forever. Quite a lot of them fail.
 
Excellent post, and I will add that there is no rule that says that car manufacturers will live forever. Quite a lot of them fail.
Tesla has lasted a lot longer than any other startups in recent memory too. Element of right place, right time to it I think, but it's hard not to think that Musk's Jobs-like personality cult has something to do with it.
 
That's all very well, but ultimately a business has to start making money before it has no more money left to burn. Tesla Motors has now been around 14 years and has only ever been profitable over brief periods. And none of those periods were from selling cars - they've been from selling EV credits to other automakers trying to avoid fines, and from an IPO. They've been sustaining themselves on borrowing and occasionally topping up with customer deposits. Which is fine, until they can't borrow any more and until customers get sick of waiting for their cars and go somewhere else.

The next few years will probably be very tough for Tesla unless they can start cranking out Model 3s a lot quicker and actually start making money from selling in volume - and at a suitable quality level so they don't find themselves on the other end of a class action lawsuit. They must also do this at a time when other manufacturers are finally starting to make progress on their own EVs.

It's highly unlikely Tesla will ever own a "huge portion of the market", as the market itself is getting bigger all the time. Even up until now they've not had the lion's share of the market - Nissan (and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi) has been the world's biggest producer of EVs since the Leaf first emerged, and that trend is unlikely to change any time soon either.

I want to see Tesla do well. They've undoubtedly kick-started plenty of other manufacturers into their own EV programs and have done very well to last as long as they have in an increasingly tough automotive market.

But too much of what the company (and more specifically Musk) does seems like a big game of smoke and mirrors. It's very clever, and it's sure as hell enough to fool the cult-like legions of dyed-in-the-wool Tesla followers into thinking the company can do no wrong, but unless Tesla quits teasing new models and instead gets its act into gear with the Model 3 and starts making money, then reality will hit home pretty hard.

Apparently Musks revenue from SolarCity could cover Tesla losses 3 times over... not to mention Tesla is only in the red because of its large expenditure on infrastructure the last 5 years trying to achieve mass production... Tesla isn't "hurting" by any means, at least from what i can gather.. i'm no analyst. Also, the market may be growing, but I'm talking about a massive market shift not just growth. If Tesla plays their cards right, they could be one of the leading manufacturers of EV's if they can mass produce affordable models (aka model 3). Its all speculation, but if they are producing affordable cars with similar range of the proposed new roadster, i don't think the large manufacturers like Toyota, Ford, etc. will be able to keep up. Depending on whether they start a drastic shift in focus to EV's in the next 5 years. They definitely have their issues (model 3), but they have the foundation and potential to overcome them easily. Its not like every other car manufacturer on the planet hasn't been through a rough patch/scandal/or some sort of deficiency. Its the ability to rebound and adapt that will prove whether or not Tesla can reach the level i propose.

Basically what I'm saying is that Tesla doesn't need to make money yet, not until the market shifts. Until then, they just need to focus on getting the market to shift by offering technology that people cant ignore, make it too good to pass up.
 
Excellent post, and I will add that there is no rule that says that car manufacturers will live forever. Quite a lot of them fail.
And there's a reason most car companies are decades old and new manufacturers are rare outside of niche/luxury markets. It's really hard to mass produce cars, and the amount of money you'd have to spend to beat GM, Toyota, and VW who've been at it for a century makes it incredibly difficult to be profitable. There's far easier ways for millionaires to become multi millionaires than trying to mass produce cars.

In the long run I wonder if Tesla batteries and motors/drivetrains will become a component part like how other manufacturers build a laptop and put an Intel processor in them. Just like the Bolt, LG makes the batteries and drivetrain in Korea and GM makes the "car" in Michigan. Tesla is very good at making batteries/electric drivetrains and the software to go with them. They're horrible at making cars and I don't think investors will stomach the tens of billions it'll take to get to even GM quality in manufacturing, let alone on par with Toyota or Honda.
 
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Apparently Musks revenue from SolarCity could cover Tesla losses 3 times over...
SolarCity's 2016 net profit was $238.8 million.

Tesla Motors' third quarter 2017 losses were $619 million.

So unless Solar City has grown massively in the last year (there's a chance, but equally I've not heard anything to that effect), its profits would struggle to cover six weeks of Tesla losses, let alone enough to cover them three times over.

Revenue's a different story (since you mention revenue), but then revenue is also irrelevant unless costs are also considered. If you have higher costs than revenue (like Tesla), then you make a loss.
not to mention Tesla is only in the red because of its large expenditure on infrastructure the last 5 years trying to achieve mass production...
Mass production that it hasn't yet achieved and is currently struggling to achieve.

Where Tesla is spending its money is neither here nor there - the fact is it's currently quite a long way from being able to cover its massive expenditure. There is only so long a company can go with that being the case.
Tesla isn't "hurting" by any means, at least from what i can gather.. i'm no analyst.
You don't need to be an analyst to understand that big losses, production behind schedule and employee lawsuits aren't exactly a walk in the park.
Also, the market may be growing, but I'm talking about a massive market shift not just growth. If Tesla plays their cards right, they could be one of the leading manufacturers of EV's if they can mass produce affordable models (aka model 3).
Which again, hinges on Tesla actually being able to produce its cars in suitable numbers. At the moment, that isn't the case. And unless Tesla can change that soon, it's going to be selling Model 3s into a market filled with other large-volume electric cars from much better-established car companies with vastly greater resources.

Nissan has been producing its second-generation Leaf since the summer - this being a car that has only just been launched. It will have no problem fulfilling orders, and given the improvements from the original car, it'll probably not have too much trouble selling them either. It's offering lower range than the Tesla, but then a lower price too. Several other manufacturers are doing likewise.
Its all speculation, but if they are producing affordable cars with similar range of the proposed new roadster, i don't think the large manufacturers like Toyota, Ford, etc. will be able to keep up.
There are two separate issues here: Affordable cars, and ones with a similar range to the Roadster.

Tesla isn't yet doing both simultaneously, which puts it neither ahead nor behind anyone else not doing both simultaneously.

It's attempting to build a $35k Model 3 - though that gets you the 220-mile car (for comparison, the new Leaf does 200 miles and is expected to cost under $30k in the US - not such an advantage for Tesla at the more affordable end of the market).

It's also previewed a $200k Roadster with a 620-mile range. Now while that looks good value for its performance, it's not really "affordable" - it's still a rich-person's toy. Toyota, Ford etc don't have to compete with that, because that's not where the bulk of the market will be. The bulk of the market will be in that $30k (or below) range, and Toyota, Ford, and pretty much everyone else can definitely compete with Tesla at that price.
Depending on whether they start a drastic shift in focus to EV's in the next 5 years. They definitely have their issues (model 3), but they have the foundation and potential to overcome them easily.
That very much remains to be seen.
Its not like every other car manufacturer on the planet hasn't been through a rough patch/scandal/or some sort of deficiency. Its the ability to rebound and adapt that will prove whether or not Tesla can reach the level i propose.
Those other car manufacturers are all vastly bigger than Tesla and are much more capable of riding storms. Volkswagen made a big loss in 2015 thanks to Dieselgate... and then bounced right back to a $5.4 billion profit in 2016. They've had to make changes to account for their problems, but by and large it's just been a blip on the radar.

Tesla doesn't have that luxury. "Rebounding" is what VW did. Tesla - yet to make a profit - is yet to "bound" in the first place.
Basically what I'm saying is that Tesla doesn't need to make money yet, not until the market shifts. Until then, they just need to focus on getting the market to shift by offering technology that people cant ignore, make it too good to pass up.
I find it odd that you don't think a company needs to make money. Like I said before, that's only the case until they run out of capital to spend. If you can no longer borrow and aren't making any profits, there's only so long you can remain afloat.

Tesla's job is very simple. It needs to make money. And the best way it can do that is by doing what every other carmaker on the planet does and has to do: Build and sell cars in big enough numbers to cover expenditure.
 
SolarCity's 2016 net profit was $238.8 million.

Tesla Motors' third quarter 2017 losses were $619 million.

So unless Solar City has grown massively in the last year (there's a chance, but equally I've not heard anything to that effect), its profits would struggle to cover six weeks of Tesla losses, let alone enough to cover them three times over.

Revenue's a different story (since you mention revenue), but then revenue is also irrelevant unless costs are also considered. If you have higher costs than revenue (like Tesla), then you make a loss.

Mass production that it hasn't yet achieved and is currently struggling to achieve.

Where Tesla is spending its money is neither here nor there - the fact is it's currently quite a long way from being able to cover its massive expenditure. There is only so long a company can go with that being the case.

You don't need to be an analyst to understand that big losses, production behind schedule and employee lawsuits aren't exactly a walk in the park.

Which again, hinges on Tesla actually being able to produce its cars in suitable numbers. At the moment, that isn't the case. And unless Tesla can change that soon, it's going to be selling Model 3s into a market filled with other large-volume electric cars from much better-established car companies with vastly greater resources.

Nissan has been producing its second-generation Leaf since the summer - this being a car that has only just been launched. It will have no problem fulfilling orders, and given the improvements from the original car, it'll probably not have too much trouble selling them either. It's offering lower range than the Tesla, but then a lower price too. Several other manufacturers are doing likewise.

There are two separate issues here: Affordable cars, and ones with a similar range to the Roadster.

Tesla isn't yet doing both simultaneously, which puts it neither ahead nor behind anyone else not doing both simultaneously.

It's attempting to build a $35k Model 3 - though that gets you the 220-mile car (for comparison, the new Leaf does 200 miles and is expected to cost under $30k in the US - not such an advantage for Tesla at the more affordable end of the market).

It's also previewed a $200k Roadster with a 620-mile range. Now while that looks good value for its performance, it's not really "affordable" - it's still a rich-person's toy. Toyota, Ford etc don't have to compete with that, because that's not where the bulk of the market will be. The bulk of the market will be in that $30k (or below) range, and Toyota, Ford, and pretty much everyone else can definitely compete with Tesla at that price.

That very much remains to be seen.

Those other car manufacturers are all vastly bigger than Tesla and are much more capable of riding storms. Volkswagen made a big loss in 2015 thanks to Dieselgate... and then bounced right back to a $5.4 billion profit in 2016. They've had to make changes to account for their problems, but by and large it's just been a blip on the radar.

Tesla doesn't have that luxury. "Rebounding" is what VW did. Tesla - yet to make a profit - is yet to "bound" in the first place.

I find it odd that you don't think a company needs to make money. Like I said before, that's only the case until they run out of capital to spend. If you can no longer borrow and aren't making any profits, there's only so long you can remain afloat.

Tesla's job is very simple. It needs to make money. And the best way it can do that is by doing what every other carmaker on the planet does and has to do: Build and sell cars in big enough numbers to cover expenditure.

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They do have a similar shape, to be honest. The NSX's design is more complex though.
On the other hand, it's hard to come up with a car that looks good, has a decently low drag coefficient and doesn't resemble any other car these days. Any kinds of comparison are inevitable. There will always be at least one person who will say "it looks like that other car!".
 
Ok, so what we can conclude from this video?
- car's actual 0-60 is "so fast, Jay Leno said "OOOOOOOOOOOH"
- Tesla representatives like to brag
- ...pretty much nothing else
 
So when do you suppose we'll see a video of it drag racing the Tesla semi? Cause you know that's exactly the kind of thing Musk would do just for the hell of it (and to remind people the semi is still a thing they're doing).
 
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