North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

Touring Mars
What the actual bloody hell was that?
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Apparently Trump showed it to Kim as some kind of setting the mood piece, quite frankly even though I know its real I'm still not convinced its real.

(and people wonder why I'm worried that the west may have just enabled a lunatic and elevated his place on the world stage while getting nothing at all concrete from him - but don't fear as if it all goes wrong the Don is just going to make like it never happened)
 
Trump loves everyone ... as long as they don't challenge him, or criticize him, or disagree with him in any way. Just ask Macron.



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DDastardly00
Surprised the talk is about Bill Clinton today with the historic event that just happened in Singapore. I hope for a lasting peace between the US and North Korea and that this summit is used as a building block to improve relations even further. The denuclearization of North Korea is of paramount importance to maintain security in the region and abroad.

It starts with officially recognizing the DPRK as a country, this may seem like such a small thing but it's not. The US needs to connaturalize North Korea, only then will NK receive the validation that they have been seeking for over 40 years. This isn't optional and it needs to happen immediately for any hope of a successful outcome.

And finally, Trump deserves some credit whether people disagree with him, dislike him, hate the man's guts, or not. Sure this is a major foreign policy victory for Trump, and that might sting a little for some people, but it's more than that, this is a victory for peace and everyone and I do mean EVERYONE, should be excited about this breakthrough. In some ways it feels like the last of the Cold War is finally being swept away, and this should be viewed explicitly in a non-partisan way.
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It's not a foreign policy victory or a win for world piece.

The US has just thrown an ally under the bus for nothing we didn't have already. NK has given nothing new at all, zero, the signed statement from both even details that NK give nothing them hadn't already agreed to.

In return for nothing (and what the agreed to with SK and reaffirmed today is the same as they gave promised and broken a dozen times in the past) NK has been placed on equal footing with the US and gotten the cancellation of joint exercises (which neither SK or the US military knew was going to happen).

That's a massive win for NK, the US get nothing more than a dubious photo op and SK gets shafted.

Eunos_Cosmo
It's reasonable to be skeptical of the summit and I think calling it a victory for peace is premature. Generally, I think the approach of recognizing DPRK is correct (though, who am I to say) but I think we are a long ways away from anything concrete.
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Recognition is one thing, getting equal footing with the US us quite another thing.
 
Scaff
It's not a foreign policy victory or a win for world piece.

The US has just thrown an ally under the bus for nothing we didn't have already. NK has given nothing new at all, zero, the signed statement from both even details that NK give nothing them hadn't already agreed to.

In return for nothing (and what the agreed to with SK and reaffirmed today is the same as they gave promised and broken a dozen times in the past) NK has been placed on equal footing with the US and gotten the cancellation of joint exercises (which neither SK or the US military knew was going to happen).

That's a massive win for NK, the US get nothing more than a dubious photo op and SK gets shafted.


Recognition is one thing, getting equal footing with the US us quite another thing.
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It is a step in the right direction, especially given the fiery rhetoric and multitude of missile and nuclear tests only a few short months ago. Now, it remains to be seen whether peace will prevail in the long run or not, it's too premature it the process to form any firm conclusion at this point. We all knew this would be an incremental process that would take years to achieve. As for the military drills, the next one was scheduled for the fall, I'm sure it will be back on in a hurry if there is a lack of progress and good faith by NK in the next few months, that's not really giving up leverage. The sanctions are still in firmly place, which gives the US and it's allies all the leverage they need for now. I also don't think NK is viewed on equal footing with the US by the rest of the world just because Kim met with Trump, that's a stretch. It's best at this point to take a step back, give this this a chance, and we'll see where it goes and reevaluate it later.
 
DDastardly00
It is a step in the right direction, especially given the fiery rhetoric and multitude of missile and nuclear tests only a few short months ago. Now, it remains to be seen whether peace will prevail in the long run or not, it's too premature it the process to form any firm conclusion at this point. We all knew this would be an incremental process that would take years to achieve. As for the military drills, the next one was scheduled for the fall, I'm sure it will be back on in a hurry if there is a lack of progress and good faith by NK in the next few months, that's not really giving up leverage. The sanctions are still in firmly place, which gives the US and it's allies all the leverage they need for now. I also don't think NK is viewed on equal footing with the US by the rest of the world just because Kim met with Trump, that's a stretch. It's best at this point to take a step back, give this this a chance, and we'll see where it goes and reevaluate it later.
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My view remains, the deal maker came off worse in this deal.

As for not being on equal footing?

Trump abandoned long standing US allies to fly half way around the world to meet as an equal on Kim's terms (changed departure times, location, flag placement, the entire thing). That's quite a step up for arguably the most brutal dictator in the planet!

Now if Kim doesn't disarm quick enough (and you will note that no time frames were placed on NK at all) and the US does carry out exercises then Trumps failed. The North can blame him for breaking things.

That's without the elephant in the room, that NK and the US have very different ideas about what Nuclear disarmament means. With NK insisting that it has to be reciprocal and the US has to ensure that NK could never be a target for US missiles if in disarms. That's without the historic track record of countries failing to disarm (one in history and that was democracy rather than a dictatorship that has always craved to be a nuclear state).

It's one of the worse deal since Neville got back in 38.
 
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It's worth noting that all Trump has done is join a long list of administration's that has been outmatched by the Kim lineage.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-why-did-bill-clintons-north-korea-deal-fail/

However pretty much all of the ones before did so without needing to meet or giving a dictatorship this much legitimacy. Nor in the process blindsided SK and then threarethr them on trade in the same breath.
 
Like I said, it's too early to form any conclusions. If North Korea takes no action whatsoever in the next two weeks then we can all write it off as a waste of time, and if it is, then I won't blame Trump for at least trying. And if Trump manages to pull this off, then I'm sure the partisan hacks, supposed political pundits, and critics will still find a way to pick his bones clean just like the fish in the ending of the Old man and the Sea by Ernest Hemmingway.
 
DDastardly00
Like I said, it's too early to form any conclusions. If North Korea takes no action whatsoever in the next two weeks then we can all write it off as a waste of time, and if it is, then I won't blame Trump for at least trying. And if Trump manages to pull this off, then I'm sure the partisan hacks, supposed political pundits, and critics will still find a way to pick his bones clean just like the fish in the ending of the Old man and the Sea by Ernest Hemmingway.
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NK can argue that it has already done so, when it blew up a few bits of it's test site that had already started to collapse.

In that regard the ball is in the US court.

Feel free to give Trump a pass regardless of the outcome, I fir one will quite happily change my view should we get IOEC confirmation that NK has fully disarmed. However should it fail then he should face critisicm for giving so much for do little.

I'm not sure what people actually think happened in terms of NK giving anything new today. Quite literally (as in 100%) if today had not hsppened, NK would still have the same commitments in place.

They agreed to nothing new at all, not a single new consesion was given by NK.

How on earth can that be seen as anything other than a one sided deal.

Honestly I would love to know what new conditions people believe NK agreed to today?
 
Dotini
Honestly, if someone gave you a brick of gold you would complain it's too heavy. :P
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"Sour grapes...Bile...Resentment..."

Oh dear, so a difference in view has to be portrayed with digs and cheap insults.

You can do better that that, or has the concept of two sided debate and discussion grown tiring or is addressing quite valid questions and concerns too challenging?
 
Scaff
NK can argue that it has already done so, when it blew up a few bits of it's test site that had already started to collapse.

In that regard the ball is in the US court.

Feel free to give Trump a pass regardless of the outcome, I fir one will quite happily change my view should we get IOEC confirmation that NK has fully disarmed. However should it fail then he should face critisicm for giving so much for do little.

I'm not sure what people actually think happened in terms of NK giving anything new today. Quite literally (as in 100%) if today had not hsppened, NK would still have the same commitments in place.

They agreed to nothing new at all, not a single new consesion was given by NK.

How on earth can that be seen as anything other than a one sided deal.

Honestly I would love to know what new conditions people believe NK agreed to today?
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Even if we get that IOEC confirmation I will still be skeptical, NK has broken deals in the past. For right now though, I am happy that a possible diplomatic solution is moving forward. Let's all be perfectly honest here, there is no good outcome of a military solution on the Korean Peninsula, anyone that says otherwise is a bold-faced liar.
 
DDastardly00
It is a step in the right direction, especially given the fiery rhetoric and multitude of missile and nuclear tests only a few short months ago. Now, it remains to be seen whether peace will prevail in the long run or not, it's too premature it the process to form any firm conclusion at this point. We all knew this would be an incremental process that would take years to achieve. As for the military drills, the next one was scheduled for the fall, I'm sure it will be back on in a hurry if there is a lack of progress and good faith by NK in the next few months, that's not really giving up leverage. The sanctions are still in firmly place, which gives the US and it's allies all the leverage they need for now. I also don't think NK is viewed on equal footing with the US by the rest of the world just because Kim met with Trump, that's a stretch. It's best at this point to take a step back, give this this a chance, and we'll see where it goes and reevaluate it later.
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This is a wise and hopeful point of view, which I share.
 
DDastardly00
Even if we get that IOEC confirmation I will still be skeptical, NK has broken deals in the past. For right now though, I am happy that a possible diplomatic solution is moving forward. Let's all be perfectly honest here, there is no good outcome of a military solution on the Korean Peninsula, anyone that says otherwise is a bold-faced liar.
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If you can't trust IOEC confirmation (and on that I agree totally) then how on earth can a diplomatic solution work?

After all it's not as if the past agreements were not also diplomatic solutions?

It's arguable that containment until internal collapse occurs may be the only real solttion.

And now I'm off to sleep in the hope age will temper a certain members digs.
 
Scaff
If you can't trust IOEC confirmation (and on that I agree totally) then how on earth can a diplomatic solution work?

After all it's not as if the past agreements were not also diplomatic solutions?

It's arguable that containment until internal collapse occurs may be the only real solttion.

And now I'm off to sleep in the hope age will temper a certain members digs.
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Good point Scaff, that is why I will continue to be cautiously optimistic that diplomacy with prevail this time, because the alternative(s) will result in a loss of life that is unacceptable, we can't give up on hope, especially not at this hour.

"Hope is being able to see that there is light despite all the darkness" -Desmond Tutu
 
DDastardly00
Good point Scaff, that is why I will continue to be cautiously optimistic that diplomacy with prevail this time, because the alternative(s) will result in a loss of life that is unacceptable, we can't give up on hope, especially not at this hour.

"Hope is being able to see that there is light despite all the darkness" -Desmond Tutu
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Believe me, its one I hope to be wrong on, however those who live, work and analyis Korea fro a living seem to share the view that this was not a good deal.





 
The fact that North Korea agreed to give up nuclear testing when the whole world and their mother suspects that their nuclear testing facility has already collapsed is testament to their sincerity. The most token effort imaginable.
 
Liquid
The fact that North Korea agreed to give up nuclear testing when the whole world and their mother suspects that their nuclear testing facility has already collapsed is testament to their sincerity. The most token effort imaginable.
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Plus the fact that the need for testing reduces quite significantly once you have finished with the testing phase and have viable devices (estimated at between 30 and 60).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...79f191668ed_story.html?utm_term=.ad35b4c797e9

To add to the 'fun', the NSC have owned up to the video used during the meeting and it seemed used a made up production company name without bothering to check if a company with that name actually exists. Turns out that one does (as google is so slow and tricky to use for basic due diligence)!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...l-security-council-destiny-pictures?CMP=fb_gu
 
I think there is alot more to this, especially since the NK state media propaganda machine has warmed up significantly to the US suggests Kim jong Un is trying something different to the previous leaders. Looking at the timeline of events it's clear Un wanted to negociate from a position of power.

The thing is though NK still has to balance this with keeping control of the country, and it's incredibly hard for a hardman dictator to keep control without clear threats from outside to keep the people in line.

The country badly needs trade to exist in the future keep in mind, and with it being surrounded by exploding economies it has no choice in the matter at this point.

NK looks at sacrificing some of it's complete power of the people for economic growth to keep surviving.

And with the US electing a leader desperate for something to define his tenure Kim Jong Un has been given a perfect oportunity.
 
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I can't disagree much with any of the concerns raised about the flimsy, one-sided nature of the result of this (first) summit, but I think it is also necessary to bear in mind just how much of a sea-change it is for either Trump or Kim Jong-un to even agree to meet in the first place, and how a relationship between DPRK and the US of any description is going to affect all other relationships in the region in one way or another. The US are suspicious of closer ties between the North and South, the Chinese are suspicious of closer (or any) ties between the US and the DPRK etc. - but one thing that all can agree on is that the situation as it was just a few weeks ago was untenable - something had to give.

Everyone is going to have to make concessions in order to move away from the very real threat of a horrible conflict that would be unlike anything ever seen on the planet before, and while the suspicion remains that the North have no real desire for change, I think at this juncture it is the only sensible approach to start by giving them the benefit of the doubt and to at least welcome the start of face-to-face diplomacy at the highest level - but the Kim regime will have been left under no illusions about what the consequences are if the diplomatic route fails...
 
Scaff
Believe me, its one I hope to be wrong on, however those who live, work and analyis Korea fro a living seem to share the view that this was not a good deal.





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So this Twitter user represents people who live, work and analyze in Korea? Bit of a stretch.
 
Johnnypenso
So this Twitter user represents people who live, work and analyze in Korea? Bit of a stretch.
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It's an example of one of them, one who happens to be well respected in that field, lives in Korea and works for a Korean university in that field.

However feel free to rebut it with your own examples from someone of similar standing in the same field.
 
Scaff
It's an example of one of them, one who happens to be well respected in that field, lives in Korea and works for a Korean university in that field.

However feel free to rebut it with your own examples from someone of similar standing in the same field.
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It's a single person's opinion that you seem to think represents something more than a single person's opinion. Bit of a stretch like I said. I believe it's called the Appeal to Authority Fallacy.
 

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