North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

Exorcet
I don't disagree. I limited my post to air power because I think that's an area where there really is a big one sided advantage. The majority of North Korea's aircraft were outdated back in the 90's and the advances in technology that have occurred since then would make it extremely difficult for any of their fighters to put up meaningful resistance to modern air forces. Active missiles coupled with multi target radars make those aircraft equipped with them 5 or more times more valuable than other aircraft based on the number of missiles that they can have in the air at once. An air war with Korea won't differ very much from the one between NATO and Iraq during Gulf I. That was essentially the kind of battle that western air forces have been created to fight. The kind of equipment available to NK doesn't have any advantages to exploit that I can see. There isn't any kind of asymmetry between military aircraft today and those from 2-3 generations ago. The modern ones are trying to do all the same things, but they do them better.
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You're absolutely right. And realistically, even if NK had roughly equivalent air power they'd still get crushed because a.) the US Air Force is orders of magnitude larger than anything NK can field, and b.) the US military is significantly better trained than anything NK can field. One of the biggest differentiators for military force is training, and the US spends huge, huge amounts on making sure that their soldiers/sailors/airmen get regular, effective, and representative combat training. They get lots of time hands on using and practising with the instruments that they're expected to wield.

Wiki tells me that it's estimated that NK pilots get ~20 hours of air time a year. Even if they had Raptors they'd get themselves creamed at that rate. Google seems to think that it's a fairly fair fight between an F22 and a MiG-29 as long as the MiG gets within visual range without getting an AMRAAM to the face, but even in equal machinery an experienced pilot is going to destroy an inexperienced pilot every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Air superiority is one area where NK will likely never be able to compete. They might be able to shoot down whatever the US puts up with surface to air stuff, but they'll never get solid air support of their own. Unless China or Russia sends their own air force in to support them, which is a whole other nasty kettle of fish.
 
Imari
You're absolutely right. And realistically, even if NK had roughly equivalent air power they'd still get crushed because a.) the US Air Force is orders of magnitude larger than anything NK can field, and b.) the US military is significantly better trained than anything NK can field. One of the biggest differentiators for military force is training, and the US spends huge, huge amounts on making sure that their soldiers/sailors/airmen get regular, effective, and representative combat training. They get lots of time hands on using and practising with the instruments that they're expected to wield.

Wiki tells me that it's estimated that NK pilots get ~20 hours of air time a year. Even if they had Raptors they'd get themselves creamed at that rate. Google seems to think that it's a fairly fair fight between an F22 and a MiG-29 as long as the MiG gets within visual range without getting an AMRAAM to the face, but even in equal machinery an experienced pilot is going to destroy an inexperienced pilot every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Air superiority is one area where NK will likely never be able to compete. They might be able to shoot down whatever the US puts up with surface to air stuff, but they'll never get solid air support of their own. Unless China or Russia sends their own air force in to support them, which is a whole other nasty kettle of fish.
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The North Korean's are still using horrendously out dated tanks (T34-85's anyone?), have only a handful of MiG-29's built from kits, and their soldiers have not seen combat in their lives. Not all of ours have, but the higher ups here are experienced (no matter how....inept at times they've been).
 
catamount39
The North Korean's are still using horrendously out dated tanks (T34-85's anyone?), have only a handful of MiG-29's built from kits, and their soldiers have not seen combat in their lives. Not all of ours have, but the higher ups here are experienced (no matter how....inept at times they've been).
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And as I said earlier as well, no one knows what degree of capability the Mig-29s they got were. They could be water downed versions to save costs, that they planned to update on their own later. However, the main worry and probably why there is some tip-toeing is because of the realistic threat on Seoul.
 
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catamount39
The North Korean's are still using horrendously out dated tanks (T34-85's anyone?), have only a handful of MiG-29's built from kits, and their soldiers have not seen combat in their lives. Not all of ours have, but the higher ups here are experienced (no matter how....inept at times they've been).
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Still, you can't win a war with air power. Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and Korea all show how difficult it is to fight even a "civilian" enemy that knows the terrain.
 
TenEightyOne
Still, you can't win a war with air power. Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and Korea all show how difficult it is to fight even a "civilian" enemy that knows the terrain.
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That's not the point. The point about the MiG-29's being horrible copies, is that they would indeed be as a military, zero threat. The only threat posed by North Korea, is their nukes.

Unlike Vietnam and Afghanistan, just how motivated are those soldiers to continue to fight as a guerrilla force once the joint South Korean and U.S. force busts through? Unlike Vietnam (which is the most comparable), the Chinese and Russians would handing them nothing, absolutely jack squat. Once they run out of toys, they're on their own. And unlike Vietnam, what motivation would there be? The North Vietnamese were forced into a war by us in the debatable attack upon a U.S. vessel, and had a highly motivational leader who had ideals which were believed in and the Vietcong/NVA believed in. This time, it's an insane country (in North Korea), led by a moronic imbecile whose own military has been rumored at times in plotting the man's assassination.

On top of that, this war would have a purpose that South Korean/U.S. forces believe in. Stopping a maniac from destroying South Korea and Japan, and ending this mess. Hopefully it doesn't come to that and hopefully a nation says "**** it" and just uses special forces to end this or the North Koreans just turn on each other.
 
TenEightyOne
Still, you can't win a war with air power. Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and Korea all show how difficult it is to fight even a "civilian" enemy that knows the terrain.
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You can't, but not having much in the way of an air force would do quite a bit to cut off how much damage North Korea can do with the humongous artillery and missile battery they have along the border.
 
catamount39
That's not the point. The point about the MiG-29's being horrible copies, is that they would indeed be as a military, zero threat. The only threat posed by North Korea, is their nukes.

Unlike Vietnam and Afghanistan, just how motivated are those soldiers to continue to fight as a guerrilla force once the joint South Korean and U.S. force busts through? Unlike Vietnam (which is the most comparable), the Chinese and Russians would handing them nothing, absolutely jack squat. Once they run out of toys, they're on their own. And unlike Vietnam, what motivation would there be? The North Vietnamese were forced into a war by us in the debatable attack upon a U.S. vessel, and had a highly motivational leader who had ideals which were believed in and the Vietcong/NVA believed in. This time, it's an insane country (in North Korea), led by a moronic imbecile whose own military has been rumored at times in plotting the man's assassination.

On top of that, this war would have a purpose that South Korean/U.S. forces believe in. Stopping a maniac from destroying South Korea and Japan, and ending this mess. Hopefully it doesn't come to that and hopefully a nation says "**** it" and just uses special forces to end this or the North Koreans just turn on each other.
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You may be misreading the situation there. Although Kim Jong Un seems like an imbecile to us, his people have been brain-washed for decades to believe in his family's dynastic rule. They might actually fight with fanaticism - both the military & civilians - in which case, like Vietnam & Afghanistan, there may be no easy path to a meaningful victory. Even in Iraq , where the actual military confrontation was over relatively quickly, the aftermath was a mess.

I can't help but feel that China holds the cards in this particular game - they must have contacts & influence within the North Korean power structure. What will they decide is in their best interests?
 
catamount39
The North Korean's are still using horrendously out dated tanks (T34-85's anyone?), have only a handful of MiG-29's built from kits, and their soldiers have not seen combat in their lives. Not all of ours have, but the higher ups here are experienced (no matter how....inept at times they've been).
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I've watched the newest military parade and they didn't show any fighters or bombers. Just some single-prop airplanes flying in formations and lots and lots of missiles, one bigger than the other.
 
catamount39
That's not the point. The point about the MiG-29's being horrible copies, is that they would indeed be as a military, zero threat. The only threat posed by North Korea, is their nukes.
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And their artillery. And their foot soldiers. And whatever traditional missiles, explosives, mines, and drones they have. And kamikaze or suicide strikes. Or chemical weapons, which really aren't that hard to make given a basic industrial capacity.

Seems to me that there's a lot of stuff that NK could do that wouldn't win them a war but would make it awfully hard for anyone else to win.

Unlike Vietnam and Afghanistan, just how motivated are those soldiers to continue to fight as a guerrilla force once the joint South Korean and U.S. force busts through?
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Unknown. Assuming that they would be unmotivated seems dangerous.

Unlike Vietnam (which is the most comparable), the Chinese and Russians would handing them nothing, absolutely jack squat.
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Possibly. Possibly not. We don't know what deals China or Russia might make.

And unlike Vietnam, what motivation would there be?
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Avoiding death at the hands of a US soldier? Or just the people like you who are keen on seeing them dead.

Survival is quite a strong motivation for most.

This time, it's an insane country (in North Korea), led by a moronic imbecile whose own military has been rumored at times in plotting the man's assassination.
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Stop it. They're not insane any more than Trump is insane. They're a country in a unique situation with extremely limited options. I'm yet to see any insane decisions. Inhumane and immoral ones possible, but hardly insane.

Given that you're advocating for going to war and killing a whole lot of North Koreans, the fact that North Korea has also killed a lot of North Koreans seems more like fair play at this point.

If you've got an example of something insane, please share it. In the sense of an action that was not rationally reasonable (or reasonably believed to be so) for the benefit of the state, the self or the community.

On top of that, this war would have a purpose that South Korean/U.S. forces believe in. Stopping a maniac from destroying South Korea and Japan, and ending this mess.
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NK hasn't destroyed them so far, and it seems like military action would be the best way to goad NK into attempting to do so.

I don't think it counts as maniacal destruction when you're only threatening to do so when your own safety is in danger. That's called self-defence, and generally Americans are pretty in favour of the idea.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that and hopefully a nation says "**** it" and just uses special forces to end this or the North Koreans just turn on each other.
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You know when you're hoping that someone else goes and kills a bunch of people that you're incapable of actually identifying with them as humans. Interesting, huh?
 
Imari
You know when you're hoping that someone else goes and kills a bunch of people that you're incapable of actually identifying with them as humans. Interesting, huh?
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A decapitationary strike on the North Korean high command wouldn't work, anyway. This isn't a country where the people are yearning for democracy, only to be quashed by an uncompromising tyrant. If the North Korean high command vanished overnight, democracy wouldn't fill the vaccuum. The people would likely revolt and that vaccuum would probably be filled by an unknown, unstable military anarchist with a nuclear arsenal at their fingertips.
 
prisonermonkeys
A decapitationary strike on the North Korean high command wouldn't work, anyway. This isn't a country where the people are yearning for democracy, only to be quashed by an uncompromising tyrant. If the North Korean high command vanished overnight, democracy wouldn't fill the vaccuum. The people would likely revolt and that vaccuum would probably be filled by an unknown, unstable military anarchist with a nuclear arsenal at their fingertips.
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Kim Jong Uns Sister would step in.
 
prisonermonkeys
A decapitationary strike on the North Korean high command wouldn't work, anyway. This isn't a country where the people are yearning for democracy, only to be quashed by an uncompromising tyrant. If the North Korean high command vanished overnight, democracy wouldn't fill the vaccuum. The people would likely revolt and that vaccuum would probably be filled by an unknown, unstable military anarchist with a nuclear arsenal at their fingertips.
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Not really. It would be a civil war between the uneducated rural farmers and the Pyongyang elites. China and south korea would immediately fill any "vaccuum". The dangerous part is that if a strike were to occur, millions of political prisoners would be wiped out. Anyone loyal to the Kim Mythology would start a genocide. The lore of North Korea that everyone is taught is that the rest of the world is just waiting to finish the war that Kim Il Sung saved the country from.
 
Omnis
Not "seems". Is. Watch Michael Malice's Bucknell talk.
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I was talking about the fact that the rest of the world is just waiting to finish the war that Kim Il Sung saved them from. They've got militaries lining up on their borders.

It's hardly lore as much as an accurate description of North Korea's place in the modern world.
 
Ive gotten bored of hearing about the North Korea news. To be honest I really don't care what happens anymore. It seems to me they are seeking attention and they are getting it. If he wanted to nuke us all he would have done it by now. If so he should hurry up. North Korea is slowly falling apart.
 
Omnis
It would be a civil war between the uneducated rural farmers and the Pyongyang elites.
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Presumably these Pyongyang elites would be dispersed or dead following any kind of serious war. So who are these uneducated rural farmers? How would they play a role? What would they be inclined to do? Was are their deepest beliefs and desires? The official religion of North Korea is communism. But the latest edition of Kim is said to have supplanted this with militarism writ bare. I doubt these are widely held views amongst the uneducated rural farmers. It's hard to conjure with numbers where the opaque state of North Korea is concerned. But my estimate is that uneducated rural farmers in North Korea are likely to have a strong affinity with nature gods (animism) and uneducated South Korean farmers.
 
Dotini
Presumably these Pyongyang elites would be dispersed or dead following any kind of serious war. So who are these uneducated rural farmers? How would they play a role? What would they be inclined to do? Was are their deepest beliefs and desires? The official religion of North Korea is communism. But the latest edition of Kim is said to have supplanted this with militarism writ bare. I doubt these are widely held views amongst the uneducated rural farmers. It's hard to conjure with numbers where the opaque state of North Korea is concerned. But my estimate is that uneducated rural farmers in North Korea are likely to have a strong affinity with nature gods (animism) and uneducated South Korean farmers.
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The country bumpkins were raised on the Kim mythology. There is no animism, just the romantic state. These are people that did not grow up with God. All they have known is the legend of the Great Leader. Kim Jong Un has already exiled almost all of the "corrupt" (the good people there that aren't 100% down with the cause) urbanites to the countryside. This just happened a few weeks ago before the series of rocket failures. These are the people that are responsible for any sense of civilization that the regime enjoys. Otherwise it would be agrarian subsistence for everyone.

The civil war will be between the people that know reality and the people that would keep things as they are, as they have only known the official state-authored history of the world. North Korea is amazing because it's the only place left on earth that is totally its own Bizarro-world.
 
Any nuclear bomb will do extensive damage, but, the largest tested nuclear weapon that North Korea has is estimated at 10 kilotons, half the size of Fat Man, and two thirds the size of Little Boy.

Who knows? If North Korea were to actually go to war, would his people even fight for him? Or would some realize, several months in, that North Korea is a lost cause?
 
Put it this way if America decided to put a Castle Bravo on NK it would then be China and Russias problem as well, I would be very Surprised if America will drop a nuke which in turn means NK won't as im sure they realise its basically suicide as America has the power to wipe them off the map if they choose.
 
mustafur
Put it this way if America decided to put a Castle Bravo on NK it would then be China and Russias problem as well, I would be very Surprised if America will drop a nuke which in turn means NK won't as im sure they realise its basically suicide as America has the power to wipe them off the map if they choose.
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The fallout would hit everything around it.

Also, please read up on Mutually Assured Destruction and see why nuking anything near China or Russia is a bad idea.
 
Obelisk
The fallout would hit everything around it.

Also, please read up on Mutually Assured Destruction and see why nuking anything near China or Russia is a bad idea.
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I know about it, that's why im saying any nuke hit will be very much unlikely, if America was to drop one it would likely be the smallest they have and making sure the wind won't push the radiation north.
 
I highly doubt a nuke will ever be used again, especially the ones we have now and the increase in power they have versus those from WW2. The effects would spread far past that of NK and spread to Japan. I doubt the US will ever shoot the nuke back first.
 
Trump meeting Kim Jong-Il Kim Jong-Un? Strangely I can see that working. China have NK's ear and no doubt constantly remind them that the world is against them. If Trump were to go in without a detailed plan and simply stick to a "we want you to make money and trade" line it could, just conceivably could, lead NK in a slightly new direction. Perhaps it could even bring them to a state of willing amelioration in return for proper recognition as a political state.

I can't believe that I'm saying "Hey, Trump could be good at this" but there you go :D

samurai8juice
Any nuclear bomb will do extensive damage, but, the largest tested nuclear weapon that North Korea has is estimated at 10 kilotons,
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Estimates vary though, the non-proliferation department at Middlebury studied the seismo and came up with 40-45 kilotons. Your estimate is from the South Korean government and may well be a little biased in favour of crockness.
 
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