[POLL] United States Presidential Elections 2016

[Sanji Himura]

Looking into our crystal ball, it is time to discuss the future of our country again. The fate of us, the voter, directly effects by our choices in the leaders that we select.


Polling Policy: Any polls that are on the OP until the nominees are decided will be recycled twice a month. After the nominees are decided, or the conventions of both parties have taken place (whichever is earlier), both a Hypothetical Presidential poll and Obama's Job Approval numbers will be updated weekly.

Also note that as with the last election thread, I will keep a metric on the US House with a Republican X and a Democrat Y poll that will be updated weekly when the poll is available on Real Clear Politics. Please keep in mind that this will not reflect your voting district, and you should keep your local news sources on hand if you wish to keep track of your local races.

Here is what is up for grabs this election cycle

United States Presidency
List of nominated candidates:

General Election:
Republican:
Donald J. Trump - President
Indiana Governor Mike Pence - Vice President
Winner of 27 States - 278 Electoral votes

Democrat:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton - President
Virginia Senator Tim Kaine - Vice President
Winner of 20 States - 228 Electoral votes

Libertarian:
Former New Mexico Governor Gary Earl Johnson - President
Former Massachusetts Governor William Floyd Weld - Vice President

Debates

The debates scheduled this election cycle are the same as 2012, three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate. The following is true to the best of my knowledge as of July 31, 2016. All debates will be at 9pm ET on all major news networks, C-SPAN, and all cable news networks.

Monday, September 26th, 2016
First Presidential Debate
Location: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
Moderator: NBC's Lester Holt

Format: This debate will be divided into six time segments of about 15 minutes each on major topics that will be selected by the moderator and announced at least one week before the debate. Each segment will open with a question from the moderator, after which candidates will have two minutes to respond to the question. Candidates will then have an opportunity to respond to each other. The moderator will then use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.


Tuesday, October 4th, 2016
Vice Presidential Debate
Location: Longwood University, Farmville, VA
Moderator: CBS's Elaine Quijano

Format: This debate will be divided into nine time segments of about 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond to the question. The moderator will then use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.

Sunday, October 9th, 2016
Second Presidential Debate
Location: Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO
Moderators: CNN's Anderson Cooper and ABC's Martha Raddatz

Format: This debate will take the form of a town hall meeting, in which half of the questions will be posed directly by citizen participants and the other half will be posed by the moderator based on topics of broad public interest as reflected in social media and other sources. The candidates will have two minutes to respond and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate further discussion. The town hall participants will be uncommitted voters selected by the Gallup Organization

Wednesday, October 19th, 2016
Third Presidential Debate
Location: University of Nevada in Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV
Moderator: FOX's Chris Wallace

Format: This debate will take the form of something identical of the first presidential debate.

GTP Call Center
All times Eastern time

Total Electoral Votes:
270 electoral votes needed for election

Donald Trump: 277 *Winner*
Hillary Clinton: 228


Poll closings at 7pm
New Hampshire - 4 electoral votes
Vermont - 3 electoral votes
Virginia - 13 electoral votes
Georgia - 16 electoral votes
South Carolina - 9 electoral votes
Kentucky - 8 electoral votes

Poll closings at 7:30pm
North Carolina - 15 electoral votes
West Virginia - 5 electoral votes
Ohio - 18 electoral votes

Poll closings at 8pm
Indiana (Most of the state closes at 7pm) - 11 electoral votes
Maine - 4 electoral votes (one electoral vote)
Massachusetts - 11 electoral votes
Connecticut - 7 electoral votes
Rhode Island - 4 electoral votes
New Jersey - 14 electoral votes
Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes
Delaware - 3 electoral votes
Maryland - 10 electoral votes
Florida (Most of the state closes at 7pm) - 29 electoral votes
Alabama - 9 electoral votes
Mississippi - 6 electoral votes
Tennessee (Polling places in the EST time zone close at 8pm, but the rest of the state close at 7pm CST) - 11 electoral votes
Illinois - 20 electoral votes
Oklahoma - 7 electoral votes
Missouri - 10 electoral votes
District of Columbia - 3 electoral votes

Poll closings at 8:30pm
Arkansas - 6 electoral votes

Poll closings at 9pm
New York - 29 electoral votes
Michigan (the whole state) - 16 electoral votes
Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes
Minnesota - 10 electoral votes
South Dakota (the whole state) - 3 electoral votes
Kansas (the whole state) - 6 electoral votes
Texas (the whole state) - 38 electoral votes
Louisiana - 8 electoral votes
New Mexico - 5 electoral votes
Colorado (primarily a vote by mail state) - 9 electoral votes
Nebraska - 5 electoral votes - Congressional division
Wyoming - 3 electoral votes
Arizona - 11 electoral votes

Poll closings at 10pm
North Dakota (latest that they will be able to close) - 3 electoral votes
Iowa - 6 electoral votes
Montana - 3 electoral votes
Utah - 6 electoral votes
Nevada - 6 electoral votes

Poll closings at 11pm
Idaho (the whole state) - 4 electoral votes
California - 55 electoral votes
Washington (vote by mail) - 12 electoral votes
Oregon (vote by mail) - 7 electoral votes
Hawaii - 4 electoral votes

Poll closings at 2am November 9th
Alaska (whole state) - 3 electoral votes


The United States House of Representatives

Seats up for grabs: 435 (245 Republican: 188 Democrat)

The Balance of Power
Republican Seats: 237
Democrat Seats: 191
Independent Seats: 0
Shift: Democrats gain 6
Note: LA House CD 3 and 4 have failed to reach a 50% +1 threshold. Run off Dec. 10
Note 2: 5 House seats are too close to call

United States Senate

Seats up for grabs: 34
Republican: 22
Democrat: 7
Open Seats: 5 (Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Dan Coats (R-IN), David Vitter (R-LA), Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) and Harry Reid (D-NV) who are retiring)

The Balance of Power
Republican Seats: 51
Democrat Seats: 47
Independent Seats: 2 (both caucus with the Democrats)
Shift: Democrats +1
Note: Runoff is required for LA's seat. Runoff is Dec. 10
Note 2: NH Too close to call


Governorships

Total States: 12
Republican: 2
Democrat: 3
Open States: 7

The following states will be up for grabs in 2016 and will be listed in order of state, current governor, and finally, any additional notes that the office is in (either term limits or if the governor is retiring):

Montana - Steve Bullock
North Carolina - Pat McCrory
Utah - Gary Herbert
Washington - Jay Inslee
Oregon - Kate Brown - (Special Election)
New Hampshire - Maggie Hassan - Retiring
Vermont - Peter Shumlin - Retiring
Delaware - Jack Markell - Term Limits (Four years, re-electable once)
Missouri - Jay Nixon - Term Limits (Four years, re-electable once. However, he can be re-elected after a new governor has served a term)
West Virginia - Earl Ray Tomblin - Term Limits (Four years, re-electable once)
Indiana - Mike Pence - Dropped out to run for Vice President
North Dakota - Jack Dalrymple - Retiring

The Balance of Power
Republican Governors: 33
Democrat Governors: 15
Independent Governors: 1
Shift: Republicans +18
Note: 1 race too close to call

 

[Parker]

The only person I can stand from that list is Rand Paul.

 

[Sanji Himura]

I actually have quite a few ponies in this race. It might be my slight Texas bias, but everyone in my family is going to vote for Rick Perry, but I will tow the Ted Cruz line for a while because RCP has an article out saying that Perry is getting Foreign Policy advice from Lindsey Graham of all people. My dark horse in this race is indeed Rand, because he is popular enough to where the establishment can tolerate him as "their guy" if worse comes to worse and all of their candidates go out of the race early (and I hope they do).

 

[Dotini]

My greatest fear is that the neocons are in the driving seat of foreign policy for almost all candidates, Republican and Democrat alike. This means more wars and regime changes are guaranteed. Even Rand Paul is now for larger military budgets and is getting more fervently pro-Israel.

The candidate I vote for will make up his/her own mind on matters of war and peace, and not have it handed to him or her by others. Who has a mind strong, experienced and independent enough for that? Maybe only Webb?

 

[CC570]

Easy: whoever is the Democrat's candidate.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Cruz can take a hike.

 

[TVR27]

I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary Clinton wins "because America is corrupt". I'm sick of Americas foreign policy it's all going to end in a horrible war.

 

[Joel]

Easy: whoever is the Democrat's candidate.

Yeah, because Republicans are just brainwashed idiots amirite?

 

[Dennisch]

I want the biggest religious bigot to become President. Not a moderate one, not an atheist, no, one that can't think without his religious scripture.

I would have to make daily beer and popcorn runs.

 

[photonrider]

Cruz. Hm. My spidey-sense is tingling. Or maybe it's just pins and needles.

 

[TVR27]

You should see The documentary Bill Clinton Murders on Youtube.

 

[JMoney]

My political views have drifted further and further from the mainstream GOP, who I closely alligned with in the '04-'12 elections. I'm definitely not drifting toward progressive views, rather, my opinions have left the grid.

Rand Paul seems like a man with a plan. Most of the potential GOP candidates seem like copies of each other, all with the same basic conservative principles. Rand Paul has slightly different ideas, which is what appeals to me. Plus, he's from the same state as me. I'll be voting for him.

 

[CC570]

Yeah, because Republicans are just brainwashed idiots amirite?

No, because The Democrats are the lesser of two evils. Read the party platforms and could not in good conscience support the Republican platform, so I vote straight ticket democrat.

 

[DK]

I want the biggest religious bigot to become President. Not a moderate one, not an atheist, no, one that can't think without his religious scripture.

I would have to make daily beer and popcorn runs.

Don't forget to build a nuclear shelter, too. I've a feeling such a person would nuke the entirety of western Europe because "they're all godless commie libruls, herp derp".

No, because The Democrats are the lesser of two evils. Read the party platforms and could not in good conscience support the Republican platform, so I vote straight ticket democrat.

First Past The Post truly sucks, doesn't it?

 

[CC570]

First Past The Post truly sucks, doesn't it?

Don't understand the idiom.

 

[DK]

"First Past The Post" means that whoever gets the most votes in an election wins. This video might be of some help:

 

[Dotini]

Don't forget to build a nuclear shelter, too. I've a feeling such a person would nuke the entirety of western Europe because "they're all godless commie libruls, herp derp".


First Past The Post truly sucks, doesn't it?

For a long, long time, ultraconservative religious zealots in the US Air Force have lusted to nuke Godless communists off the face of the Earth. This is not a joke. Dr Strangelove's mad Colonel Jack D Ripper is based on real people like General Curtis LeMay. Over time, a lot of these highly placed officers have been removed or retired from service. How we got so lucky as to avoid nuclear war is another story.

 

[Carbonox]

If the Republican candidate ends up being someone like Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum, I'd advice American GTP'ers to systematically vote against them.

 

[Dotini]

If the Republican candidate ends up being someone like Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum, I'd advice American GTP'ers to systematically vote against them.

Not enough!
If any candidate advised by neocons attains the presidency, I'd advise GTP'ers to take up prayer, protest, or both.

PS, Obama's State Department is already infested with them.

 

[Sanji Himura]

If the Republican candidate ends up being someone like Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum, I'd advice American GTP'ers to systematically vote against them.

Even better, don't vote for them in the primary like I am doing. Huckabee has proven himself to be a die hard establishment candidate where he had nearly 8 years in the media to spew his anti-tea party garbage all he wants. I personally think that enough people have seen through his Iron Curtain and know with relatively enough certainty that he only cares about DC.

Santorum, on the other hand, I would admit I would have voted for him back in 2000, but I was ineligible to vote. He appeals more to the more religious right leaning voters than I would care to admit.

I personally don't think that they will do much beyond splitting votes so that the establishment candidate could get nominated.

EDIT: The OP is being updated with the tentative schedule for your state's primaries and caucuses. The dates are not final and will shift around.

 

[Keef]

Even Rand Paul is now for larger military budgets and is getting more fervently pro-Israel.

I believe it's because he knows it will get votes and snagging neocon votes is the only way he can slip his libertarian self into office.

 

[Dotini]

I believe it's because he knows it will get votes and snagging neocon votes is the only way he can slip his libertarian self into office.

Yes, he is trying to appeal to a wider array of potential voters. It may work for him; I hope so. Perhaps he can stay uncorrupted by his promises. Some lies are necessary. The end justifies the means.

 

[Sanji Himura]

"First Past The Post" means that whoever gets the most votes in an election wins.

Except we're not really talking about a first past the post system. This is the United States, a system with the "accursed" Electoral College.

Here is how it is supposed to work. Each state is supposed to get a certain number of electorates for the Electoral College. Presently, the total number of electorates is set to the number of voting members of Congress(535) plus three for the District of Columbia.

How you win those electorates is indeed largely a "first past the post" system, as the states can doll out how their electorates are distributed, either proportionally (Maine and Nebraska use a "Congressional District Method*") or in a winner take all fashion (48 states use this model).

*In case anyone is wondering what the Congressional District Method is, the electorates are divided amongst the congressional districts at one per district. The remaining two electorates are decided based on the State wide results.

 

[ukfan758]

Hopefully it is a moderate for both parties for the election, not a far right conservative like Ted Cruz or a far left progressive like Bernie Sanders.

 

[Sanji Himura]

Hopefully it is a moderate for both parties for the election, not a far right conservative like Ted Cruz or a far left progressive like Bernie Sanders.

Bernie Sanders? Seriously?

There are more far left candidates than Sanders in the field right now. If I had to guess, the media and Obama's pony in all of this is Elizabeth Warren, a real far-left nut job who is hypocritical about her University job outside of Congress. (She makes $400k to teach one class, then turns around to complain about the high price of college.)

Also, Hillary is still in play, email scandal or no. She, like everyone else in my neck of the woods, may have backed up her emails to a secondary server, and most of them about Benghazi. If she is thrown under the bus any more than she already is, all she has to do is to turn over the emails to Trey Gowdy.

 

[huskeR32]

How you win those electorates is indeed largely a "first past the post" system, as the states can doll out how their electorates are distributed, either proportionally (Maine and Nebraska use a "Congressional District Method*") or in a winner take all fashion (48 states use this model).

*In case anyone is wondering what the Congressional District Method is, the electorates are divided amongst the congressional districts at one per district. The remaining two electorates are decided based on the State wide results.

Every year since 2008, one of the first bills introduced into our state legislature has been a proposal to do away with this, and make us the 49th winner-take-all state. (If you like to read bills, you can see this year's version here.)

This year, the bill was filibustered, and died on the floor. It will undoubtedly be re-introduced again next year though, because apparently the most important issue facing our state is taking away the Democrat minority's ability to have any voice in our overwhelmingly Republican state.

What prompted this sudden call to put an end to splitting our votes? In 2008, Obama won a majority in the district around our biggest city, Omaha, and for the first time in any presidential election, a state split its votes. The oh-so-predictable GOP effort to ensure that travesty never happens again would be comical, if it wasn't such a blatant move to tilt future elections in their favor, and ignore the wishes of a fairly large chunk of our population - a little over half of our state lives in Omaha.

 

[Sanji Himura]

Every year since 2008, one of the first bills introduced into our state legislature has been a proposal to do away with this, and make us the 49th winner-take-all state. (If you like to read bills, you can see this year's version here.)

This year, the bill was filibustered, and died on the floor. It will undoubtedly be re-introduced again next year though, because apparently the most important issue facing our state is taking away the Democrat minority's ability to have any voice in our overwhelmingly Republican state.

What prompted this sudden call to put an end to splitting our votes? In 2008, Obama won a majority in the district around our biggest city, Omaha, and for the first time in any presidential election, a state split its votes. The oh-so-predictable GOP effort to ensure that travesty never happens again would be comical, if it wasn't such a blatant move to tilt future elections in their favor, and ignore the wishes of a fairly large chunk of our population - a little over half of our state lives in Omaha.

Actually, the inverse is true. Focus on California, or any state that turned blue for that matter, the next time you see a presidential popular vote result broken down by county. Lots of red, but strong blue centralized where big cities are located. The exception that proves the rule is actually in my area, believe it or not. Dallas county, bigger in terms of population, went blue the last four election cycles, whereas the surrounding counties, including where I reside, is a bright red.

 

[Keef]

Some lies are necessary. The end justifies the means.

If he says he supports Israel but never affects policy concerning Israel, did he actually lie? Perhaps he is only lying about policies he thinks are avoidable which would allow him to focus on more important libertarian issues without contradicting himself.

 

[Draggon]

All I have to say is I am not up for the queen's coronation.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I can't say I agree with him on everything, but I feel he is the only genuinely principled person to yet submit a exploratory campaign. I like his dad better, as crazy as that old man is.