So, can Schumacher win a race this year?

  • Thread starter Thread starter jimftr
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Well, can he?

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I'm leaning towards no. It will be difficult to get a podium spot nevermind 1st. Although maybe there is a track or two that will work in their favor.
 
MazdaPrice
It was just one event.

Certainly, they look a much stronger package than last year but it's apparant that they have tyre wear problems. If they can't nail that, they'll fade away like last year.

But overall they do look much better than the last two years, so who knows... we'll find out over the next 19 races.
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I already had high hopes of Mercedes this year before Australia because of:
  • Hired experienced people on the technical side.
  • Tested a couple of clever solutions last year.
  • A strong winter.
I also don't think that Albert Park is a track that suits Mercedes, so it can only get better.
 
Trouble is though, they do well at the fast straight circuits like Montreal, but the high tyre wear nullifies their strengths.
 
I could see a pole position maybe given the pace shown in qualifying.

The big question for me is can Mercedes keep up with the development race?
 
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That Mercedes has race pace that is close to the McLarens, and with that DRS activated F-Duct front wing, they have a significant speed advantage in qualifying. They could very well be able to get a pole position at a track with more straights, such as Malaysia, which is in a few days!

Schuamcher seems to be very comfortable with the car, both in qualifying and the race, which is good considering that he never had it in qualifying last year, but was faster than Nico in the races. If anyone, it will be Michael.
 
The big question is how fast can Mercedes develop the car?

Certainly, they've got a good starting package, and they've got a good new crew, but I can't help but look back to Brawn GP's only championship season, where they weren't able to develop quickly enough to keep other teams from catching up.

Even after getting Mercedes backing, they're not the quickest developing team on the block.

I'd say McLaren has the edge in race-to-race development, followed by Red Bull. Mercedes will literally have to run in place to keep their position (tentative 3rd, if they didn't have retirements) in the manufacturer's championship. To match or overtake the big two is a big ask.

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The F-Duct really does seem to help them in qualifying, but Red Bull's advantage with the Renault engine is the light fuel load. They can start the race lighter and stay lighter over the race, giving them better race pace. Those Mercs, and to a lesser extent, the McLarens, seem like heavy, powerful, tire-eating monsters in comparison.
 
niky
The big question is how fast can Mercedes develop the car?

Certainly, they've got a good starting package, and they've got a good new crew, but I can't help but look back to Brawn GP's only championship season, where they weren't able to develop quickly enough to keep other teams from catching up.
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Funding played a big factor in that, they pretty much went trough that season on Honda's development. The brawn car didn't really change/evolved from it's original design that season, but it wasn't because of the team but rather them not having the money to keep up with the other guys.

Even after getting Mercedes backing, they're not the quickest developing team on the block.
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A product of falling back in the development race back in the BrawnGP season wich was still hurting them to this day, hopefully they have caught up now and they can prove themselves as a heavy hitting front row team.

I'd say McLaren has the edge in race-to-race development, followed by Red Bull. Mercedes will literally have to run in place to keep their position (tentative 3rd, if they didn't have retirements) in the manufacturer's championship. To match or overtake the big two is a big ask.
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It has always been their strong point. Ferrari used to be the same, but lately they seem to have lost their ways. Maybe Flav will come to the team soon and turn them arround...
 
The Mercedes is pretty impressive on one quick single lap. Comes the race, it's a different story. For Schumacher to win at least one race this year, Mercedes must find a solution to this excessive tyre wear problem otherwise I'm not seeing him anywhere on the podium.

Barring the problems on the car, yes he is capable of winning a race still. At the moment, he can't win a race but I think a 2nd or 3rd place finish is achievable.
 
It can be done, but it's hard to say whether his best chance lies now or after a few more races/into the development race.
I think his Au GP start was good but those McLarens ate it, and were over 2 seconds ahead by the time Schu could've used the Super DRS, rendering it useless.

The car just isn't fast enough, and if they want to get podiums at the moment then qualifying on the front row is crucial, so that when DRS is enabled they've only fallen back to within 1 sec of the new leaders.
 
When people say a car is quick in a single lap, does that it mean it's a great qualifier car, but not a quick racer?
 
It's not even that quick in qualification, remember that RB had problem in qualification with Webber car at least, probably on Vettel's car too. Not that quick if you ask me. Also Grosjean past them, which didnt happen a lot last year (meaning Lotus ahead of Mercedes). They closer than last year in time, but actually behind in term of team positioning.
 
Renault made a big step this year, definitely. But Mercedes, both of them has got problems too during their Q3. Rosberg locked his wheels twice in both of his Q3 lap while Schumacher made some simple or what I'd call the usual 'a-lap mistake'. That said, the Mercedes could've be a lot faster in Australia but it's a no doubt to be a quick qualifier.

The long double straight in Sepang could be beneficial for Mercedes as they have this F-Duct kind of thing on the car. It's too early, but that Mercedes on a single lap looked to be very driveable.
 
Jav
A product of falling back in the development race back in the BrawnGP season wich was still hurting them to this day, hopefully they have caught up now and they can prove themselves as a heavy hitting front row team.
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I'll concede that is a possibility. And I think the large investment in experienced personnel at Mercedes could be a tipping point in their fortunes... but we'll only know how fast they can develop after the first third of the season is over.
 
If they can improve their race pace, of course.

Their DRS is the best on the grid because of their innovative design, which can be used anywhere during qualifying. In the race you can see their fundamental design isn't as good as Red Bull or Mclaren, but they are at least ahead of Ferrari and Lotus for now.

I think there is a good chance at least one of the Mercedes drivers can win a race this year, i'll probably put my money on Spa or Monza though.
 
niky
I'll concede that is a possibility. And I think the large investment in experienced personnel at Mercedes could be a tipping point in their fortunes... but we'll only know how fast they can develop after the first third of the season is over.
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You know, I really hope they do! It'll be nice to see a new team at the top and I'd also like to see Ferrari regain their strenght... I think we've never seen a season where 4-5 different teams have the potential to win a race in the last 25 years if ever?
 
Seismica
Their DRS is the best on the grid because of their innovative design, which can be used anywhere during qualifying. In the race you can see their fundamental design isn't as good as Red Bull or Mclaren, but they are at least ahead of Ferrari and Lotus for now.
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Where do you see they are ahead of Lotus for now ? They qualify behind, Grosjean 3rd, Mercedes behind, then in race, Raikkonen is better placed then Rosberg, who had to do one more pit stop than anyone. So yeah, I dont see Mercedes ahead of Lotus atm.
Just a small reminder of the constructor championship after one race (remember that Mercedes as not been taken out by anyone, their ranking is a result of the performance of the car and a mistake (surely because of a bad car) by Schumacher).

1 McLaren/Mercedes 40
2 Red Bull/Renault 30
3 Sauber/Ferrari 12
4 Ferrari 10
5 Lotus/Renault 6
6 Toro Rosso/Ferrari 2
7 Force India/Mercedes 1
8 Mercedes 0
9 Williams/Renault 0
10 Marussia/Cosworth 0

They have good qualification pace but race pace is just horrible. So yeah so far Mercedes is not ahead of anyone for me. If they can fix the tyre wear problem we'll talk again.
 
Assuming no major shakeups in car development, I find it unlikely. Button, Hamilton, and Vettel would all have to have incidents or retire. And then he's fighting with Webber, Rosberg, Alonso, and probably Raikkonen and Grosjean for the podium.

Not that it couldn't be done, but it's a long shot. I expect at least a couple of unexpected race winners this year, but there's a lot of people it could be. Michael is unfortunately just one of a bunch of drivers in second tier cars.

Of course, car development could throw all this on it's head, but that could go either way.
 

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