The Middle East

Joey D
www.reuters.com

Iran attacks Iraq's Erbil with missiles in warning to U.S., allies

The missiles came down in areas near a new U.S. consulate building in Erbil, Kurdish officials said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Supposedly, Iran has fired ballistic missiles into Iraq in the area of the US consulate in Erbil. Weirdly, The Drive seems to have done a good job of covering it too:
www.thedrive.com

Ballistic Missiles Strike Near U.S. Base in Erbil, Iraq (Updated)

The missiles were likely launched from Iranian territory.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com

It seems really strange that Iran would launch any form of attack directed at the US when the US is currently considering lifting some sanctions against the country. Iran is poised to get some serious money when the Western world starts buying up their oil to replace the oil we're not getting from Russia. This begs the question, could it be a false flag operation from Russia in hopes of getting the US involved in some other conflict so they ignore Ukraine? While it lacks any evidence at the moment, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities.
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My theory is that Russia is pressuring Iran to antagonize the USA in the hopes of diverting attention away from Ukraine. The best possible thing that could happen to Russia right now is the US military being dragged into another middle east conflict. Otherwise, this action makes exactly zero sense.
 
So the word I hear is that the current anger brewing in Iran right now is bigger, more significant and more widespread than anything post-revolution, possibly moreso than the Green Movement of 2009 though not yet as visible. For those that don't know, a 22 year old woman, Mahsa Amini, died after falling into a coma during detention by the "morality police" for violating the hijab rule. This rule is flaunted by most urban Iranian woman and there have been different protests against it for years now as well as differing amounts of enforcement. But the anger over it appears to be at an all time high and there is significantly more public demonstration and public objection (even from elected officials and domestic celebrities who normally keep their heads down) than there has probably ever been in post-revolutionary Iran. There are also reports that the Ayatollah may be unwell. This is alongside widespread resentment of the government for western sanctions and the underperforming economy - the Iranian people don't want to be a Pariah state. All of that is to say, there is significant movement happening in Iran right now and it's very possible it may boil over. Khamenei needs to resign and dissolve the position of Supreme Leader (or in the very least hand it over to somebody respected by the pubic) for the good of the nation, but it's unlikely to happen.
 
Eunos_Cosmo
So the word I hear is that the current anger brewing in Iran right now is bigger, more significant and more widespread than anything post-revolution, possibly moreso than the Green Movement of 2009 though not yet as visible. For those that don't know, a 22 year old woman, Mahsa Amini, died after falling into a coma during detention by the "morality police" for violating the hijab rule. This rule is flaunted by most urban Iranian woman and there have been different protests against it for years now as well as differing amounts of enforcement. But the anger over it appears to be at an all time high and there is significantly more public demonstration and public objection (even from elected officials and domestic celebrities who normally keep their heads down) than there has probably ever been in post-revolutionary Iran. There are also reports that the Ayatollah may be unwell. This is alongside widespread resentment of the government for western sanctions and the underperforming economy - the Iranian people don't want to be a Pariah state. All of that is to say, there is significant movement happening in Iran right now and it's very possible it may boil over. Khamenei needs to resign and dissolve the position of Supreme Leader (or in the very least hand it over to somebody respected by the pubic) for the good of the nation, but it's unlikely to happen.
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They are clamping down on it pretty hard, I hope we don't see the same amount of dead as the 2019 protests.
 
Eunos_Cosmo
Khamenei needs to resign and dissolve the position of Supreme Leader
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Not going to happen...
Eunos_Cosmo
or in the very least hand it over to somebody respected by the pubic
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hairy jim carrey GIF by Dumb and Dumber To
 
Touring Mars
Not going to happen...
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There's probably a better chance of North Korea suddenly granting their populace rights than the ayatollah willingly stepping down. Only way he loses power is if he is killed in a uprising or dies. If he dies, odds are his successor will not be much better.
 
Looking at the footage that is slowly but surely pouring out of Iran, this might be the spark they needed to get rid of that backwards religion being in charge.
 
Dennisch
Looking at the footage that is slowly but surely pouring out of Iran, this might be the spark they needed to get rid of that backwards religion being in charge.
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It was the wrong move at the time when Trump did it (IMO) but I think Biden should walk away from the nuclear deal. There's just no sense in giving that regime a domestic win right now.
 
Whispers of dissent in some of the branches of the Iranian military (the navy) have started to emerge though there is no strong evidence.

Some of the security forces being deployed around Iran have been observed to be speaking Arabic, possibly signaling the regime is importing security forces (probably from Iraq) which would indicate they are feeling overwhelmed/unnerved.

Big effort my hacktivists to get into government records & expose corruption, proving fruitful - including state TV "do not air" censorship spreadsheet.

The protestors are keeping the heat on - remarkable really considering they are entirely unarmed.

The movement still lacks cohesive leadership which is what will ultimately prevent it from toppling the regime. I've heard jokes that the rebellion really needs Ruhollah Khomeini.
 
There's not much footage coming out of Iran anymore. The internet must be pretty much dead by now.
 
Dennisch
There's not much footage coming out of Iran anymore. The internet must be pretty much dead by now.
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Skype seems to be the only outgoing communication still functioning, but it's not encrypted (I think) so people are not sending protest stuff - or even talking about it.

edit: I got this wrong. Users outside of Iran can use Skype to call mobile numbers in Iran. So while Skype might be encrypted itself, the mobile network in Iran is definitely not.
 
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They are going after everyone now. Journalists, celebrities, and people who have gone viral on social media. They're all being arrested. This guy wrote a song composed of some of the protest chants and has now been arrested for it - for a song. The government is out of control. Biden really should not go through with the nuclear deal.
 
Eunos_Cosmo
They are going after everyone now. Journalists, celebrities, and people who have gone viral on social media. They're all being arrested. This guy wrote a song composed of some of the protest chants and has now been arrested for it - for a song. The government is out of control. Biden really should not go through with the nuclear deal.
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They will do anything they can to keep power. They'd probably send hit squads out to just mass shoot them.
 
Solidarity protests happened in 150 cities yesterday. Toronto was probably the biggest turnout - at least 50,000 people. LA was a similar number. San Francisco was somewhere north of 10,000. Worldwide total is likely in the hundreds of thousands. It's like the entire diaspora is protesting.

iran-rally-richmond-hill.jpeg




Not much is getting out of Iran right now due to the internet blackout. But authorities have allegedly blockaded-in a school full of students. This happened in 2019 and they basically killed them all.
 
Blitz24
Makes sense. After all, it's NEVER what you do that causes these protests. It's better to say your populace is extremely stupid and naive.

Iran protests escalate: Rights group says "shooting heard" as security forces attack Tehran university
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The regime is freaking out. This is the most serious popular revolt that has ever occurred in the Islamic Republic. Iranian dissident Hossein Mousavi (quasi-leader of the 2009 Green Movement) has called for the military/police to side with the people, a pretty strong statement considering he is under house arrest. It seems as though most people have moved on from him though - he was always seen as a reformist. The people protesting don't want reform, they want an end to the Islamic Republic.

"The duty of our security forces, including police, is to ensure the safety of the Iranian nation...The ones who attack the police are leaving Iranian citizens defenceless against thugs, robbers and extortionists,"

FTFY Ayatollah
 
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Protests in Iran today were enormous. I've seen videos of security forces so exhausted that they are simply laying down on the ground. This is so on the knife edge.

Also, and this is a bit of a V for Vendetta copy, but pretty wild at the same time:

 
Oil & Gas workers have joined the protest/revolution, though it's hard to say if it's isolated or widespread. Before this you could have looked on and said this movement was a discontented urban Iranian middle class protesting, but the oil & gas industry is the front line of the country's fragile economy and represents a group that I don't believe has ever been vocally against the mullahs.

There seems to be a consensus building throughout the Iranian diaspora, at least in the US, that the US government should drop the nuclear deal. This is a strong contrast to when Obama first negotiated it and when Trump ripped it up - in those times there seemed to be hope for an avenue via the deal to moderate the government and normalize relations. That sentiment is totally gone now and Iranians want/need as much pressure on the regime as possible.

You don't have to ask Republicans to oppose renewing the JCPOA but the Biden administration is still on course to negotiate it. At this point I think it would be a massive mistake and legitimize the brutality of Ali Khamenei and further the volatility of the middle east. For the stability of the middle east, the stability of oil prices, the reduction of our own military resources in the region, the security of Israel, and even to more effectively counter Russia & China (educated Iranians are far more western-oriented than eastern a secular Iran would likely be friendly to US and not openly hostile to Israel) I think it's now abundantly clear that the Islamic Republic must fall. It could happen and Iranians on the ground are ready to do it, but it will be a substantially more uphill battle if that deal goes through. I've already written by senator and house rep (both Dems) urging them to oppose it, and I would argue for others to do the same. It makes zero sense in the current context. There won't be a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic if there is no Islamic Republic.
 
This is already a bit old, but I thought very illuminating.



I tend to forget about the idea that Iranians and Americans (the people, not the governments) could be adversarial because it seems preposterous to me - but I don't think most Americans understand this. Jon Stewart (who I imagine is far more knowledgeable than most Americans on Iran) seems genuinely surprised that Iranians don't blame their problems on anyone other than their own government. Of the Iranians that I know, I've never once heard any of them complain about a single external foe, not Israel, not Saudi Arabia, not the USA - honestly even with Trump the only complaints were limited to the travel ban. It's the Islamic Republic.

I think she's right that this is ultimately up to Iranians themselves. We in the west should not make things harder for them, but not try to do more. I think Biden (and Europe) is moving towards putting the nuclear deal on ice, which I think is the right move. Anything more explicit and it will look too much like the US getting directly involved in the internal affairs of the country which could greenlight the government to crack down harder.

The general feeling in Iran is that whatever happens next and in the future, things have changed. It is an inflection point and the Islamic Republic's days are numbered.
 
When I lived in California in 2015, I lived with a Persian guy and met several of his friends and family members. Although we never got into too heavy of a discussion about it, it was pretty obvious that they were in America for a good reason, but it was also wonderful to hear about how much they love their country, their culture and their history etc., but it's a crying shame that the general perception of Iran is dominated by the Mullahs and the religious zealots that have dominated Iranian politics and society since the late 70's.

Crazily, I'm pretty sure I once met the former President of Iran (Rouhani) once around 1998 when he lived in Glasgow, and I attended a function with a Libyan mate of mine called Osama (not that one...) Rouhani studied for his Ph.D at Glasgow Caledonian University

spit take GIF


as I was studying for mine

Studying College Life GIF


at Glasgow University.

Anyhoo, I think the stories of me sharing a hottub with a bunch of Iranian chaps might be for some other time. Suffice it to say, it's actually quite normal in Persian culture apparently. That said, I also ended up in the same hottub with a Christian brotherhood a few nights later...

Cbs Flirting GIF by The Late Show With Stephen Colbert


P.S. This is all true/factual, though certain details have been omitted for either comic effect or obvious reasons
 
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Estimated that 100,000 people or more attended the 40-day memorial for Mahsa Amini today in her hometown. This despite the government pressuring her family (allegedly, they threatened to simply kill their son) to issue a statement asking people not to come as well as the government blocking the roads. A statement was "released" but the family disavowed it and people simply stopped and walked around.


iran.jpg
 

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