- 2,295
- Indiana
- pie4july
Hello everyone! Have you ever wondered where your DR will be in X amount of days? If so, I have a way you can predict it via combining the power of Microsoft Excel (or similar program) and your Gran Turismo SPORT statistics provided kudosprime. If you're unfamiliar with kudosprime, I will refer you to here (https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/threads/your-dr-sr-progress-tracker-provided-by-kudosprime.372590/).
Note: The following explanation and tutorial is done through Excel
By using Microsoft Excel, I was able to predict where my Dr will be in twice the time from now. As of this post, I have raced on 101 different days on GT SPORT and my Dr pts are currently 31,963 (Very low Dr A. Kudosprime stats- http://www.kudosprime.com/gts/stats.php?profile=1499305).
My question was simple, where will my Dr given the same amount of time in the future? To illuminate the answer, I forecasted my data with a Microsoft Excel algorithm and found that by day 203, I will be Dr 60,233 (Med. Dr S) and this data is seen in fig. one.
Figure one - This is a combined scatter plot on my Dr history (days 0-101), and the futurecasted data (days 102-203). The forecasted data is the straight blue line and the orange line is the trend line. The forecasted data is essentially an average (like a trend line), so it does not feature peaks or valleys.
I was very surprised to see this data. Can I truly achieve Dr S so soon? Well, lets test the method. To check my hypothesis, I decided to use my Dr from days 0-50 to forecast what my Dr would look like from days 51-101 under this algorithm. If the method is truly accurate, then the predicted Dr should be similar to what I currently have. This data is summarized in Fig. two.
Figure two - This is my actual DR history (blue line) with a solid orange line though it to see the trend of that data. The dotted orange line is where my predicted Dr should be today.
My predicted Dr on day 101 is 25,540 which is 5,853 pts lower than my actual Dr. I believe the reason for the slight difference in this data set is because of the large spike in my Dr between days 91 and 92 where I gained 10,000+ Dr points (by far my largest single day change in my Dr). This is a reflection of my best day ever on GT sport (and is not exactly accurate of who I usually am) where I put in my best lap ever at my best track, Interlagos, and earned multiple poles and wins. Because of this large Dr spike, I believe this has skewed the data and if not for it, I believe my dotted orange line would be far closer to the actual trend of my Dr.
Based off that, it seems to be that the prediction algorithm truly does work. To best test how it works, I ask everyone to predict their Dr and post their results in this thread. Note: Alien drivers may not get an accurate prediction due to topping out at 75,000 Dr, and as @DriftMethod mentioned, high S drivers typically gain fewer pts and have more to lose. Drivers who either purposely altered their Dr/Sr or frequently jump/fall large gaps may also not have a lot of success with this. This method may also be unreliable to those who have only played for a short amount of time, as there will not be enough data for the program. The more irregularities in the data, the less accurate the prediction will be.
I believe my test is a solid example because my Dr has a clear trend. I have lots of peaks and valleys, but I am always climbing higher. It's just a little skewed when I take a large step up. Regardless, I suggest everyone try and post your results. I am very curious to see how this will work out.
An argument against this method being unreliable would be to point out that the data does not factor increasing competition strength and it may actually take me much longer to reach Dr S (if I ever do). I do not think that argument has merit, and I DO believe this data factors increasing competition strength. Why? Because that is exactly what your Driver Rating is supposed to account for. As I increase my Dr, I become paired with drivers of similar talent. If they are too fast for me, then I fall in Dr. But as I continuously learn, I get faster and my Dr rises once again. This is represented by the peaks and valleys of my Dr and with over 100 points, I believe this is enough data to fully represent my own learning curve. The ultimate test for this will be to see where my Dr truly is once I hit day 203. Of course though, as mentioned by @Robben eventually we will all peg out and plateau. This is definitely a possability and highly likely a if/when I enter Dr S. I definitely dont have ORMA snow speed haha. Because this data does factor your learning curve I believe it works for me and I think it may be accurate to a point. It just depends where my ultimate skill level is. Will it be where I am now, or will it be later in Dr A or can I continue to learn and progress as I have until now? By no means is this algorithm a "end all tell all". I figured it'd be more fun to work on than my thesis (it was). I can't wait to see how accurate this is by day 203.
------------------TUTORIAL------------------
So, how do you do this? I'll walk you through step by step and include my full excel sheet at the end of this post. Note: This tutorial is best for someone who is familiar with excel. I will not be going over basic nuances with the program, but feel free to ask any questions in the comments section or consult the internet as there are many guides/videos out there to help you with the process.
Step one: Copy/paste your Kudos Prime data into excel as seen by the light blue box. It should paste in without issue, especially if you consider using paste special command.
Step two: Right next to those columns create another day column and forecast to what ever day you would like. For me, I simply doubled the amount of time I played from 101 days to 203 days. The new day column is now in ascending order, this is okay.
Step three: Now it gets tricky. Next to the new day column (in my case H2) you will want to enter the prediction formula which is =FORECAST(G2,$B$2:$B$103,$A$2:$A$103) where G2 is my first predicted day, $B$2:$B$103 is my Dr history, and $A$2:$A$103 is the days played. This formula can be dragged down (Info here: https://support.office.com/en-us/ar...-for-mac-dd928259-622b-473f-9a33-83aa1a63e218) and you should notice that G2 will change to G3 and G4 as it is dragged down. The rest of the formula should be the same as it is hooked by $. Be sure to change the numbers to fit your data, as you may not be predicting to B/A103, it all depends on how many rows of data you have. If you follow my setup exactly, everything else should be the same.
And ta-da! You now have a predicted Dr history which you may now graph via a scatter plot. I will end my tutorial here and refer you to (https://support.office.com/en-us/ar...ne-chart-4570a80f-599a-4d6b-a155-104a9018b86e) if you are unfamiliar with scatter plots
The excel plot is attached below, please see sheet two.
Consider trying this method and be sure to post your data/graphs here! I hope this helps!
Note: The following explanation and tutorial is done through Excel
By using Microsoft Excel, I was able to predict where my Dr will be in twice the time from now. As of this post, I have raced on 101 different days on GT SPORT and my Dr pts are currently 31,963 (Very low Dr A. Kudosprime stats- http://www.kudosprime.com/gts/stats.php?profile=1499305).
My question was simple, where will my Dr given the same amount of time in the future? To illuminate the answer, I forecasted my data with a Microsoft Excel algorithm and found that by day 203, I will be Dr 60,233 (Med. Dr S) and this data is seen in fig. one.
Figure one - This is a combined scatter plot on my Dr history (days 0-101), and the futurecasted data (days 102-203). The forecasted data is the straight blue line and the orange line is the trend line. The forecasted data is essentially an average (like a trend line), so it does not feature peaks or valleys.
I was very surprised to see this data. Can I truly achieve Dr S so soon? Well, lets test the method. To check my hypothesis, I decided to use my Dr from days 0-50 to forecast what my Dr would look like from days 51-101 under this algorithm. If the method is truly accurate, then the predicted Dr should be similar to what I currently have. This data is summarized in Fig. two.
Figure two - This is my actual DR history (blue line) with a solid orange line though it to see the trend of that data. The dotted orange line is where my predicted Dr should be today.
My predicted Dr on day 101 is 25,540 which is 5,853 pts lower than my actual Dr. I believe the reason for the slight difference in this data set is because of the large spike in my Dr between days 91 and 92 where I gained 10,000+ Dr points (by far my largest single day change in my Dr). This is a reflection of my best day ever on GT sport (and is not exactly accurate of who I usually am) where I put in my best lap ever at my best track, Interlagos, and earned multiple poles and wins. Because of this large Dr spike, I believe this has skewed the data and if not for it, I believe my dotted orange line would be far closer to the actual trend of my Dr.
Based off that, it seems to be that the prediction algorithm truly does work. To best test how it works, I ask everyone to predict their Dr and post their results in this thread. Note: Alien drivers may not get an accurate prediction due to topping out at 75,000 Dr, and as @DriftMethod mentioned, high S drivers typically gain fewer pts and have more to lose. Drivers who either purposely altered their Dr/Sr or frequently jump/fall large gaps may also not have a lot of success with this. This method may also be unreliable to those who have only played for a short amount of time, as there will not be enough data for the program. The more irregularities in the data, the less accurate the prediction will be.
I believe my test is a solid example because my Dr has a clear trend. I have lots of peaks and valleys, but I am always climbing higher. It's just a little skewed when I take a large step up. Regardless, I suggest everyone try and post your results. I am very curious to see how this will work out.
An argument against this method being unreliable would be to point out that the data does not factor increasing competition strength and it may actually take me much longer to reach Dr S (if I ever do). I do not think that argument has merit, and I DO believe this data factors increasing competition strength. Why? Because that is exactly what your Driver Rating is supposed to account for. As I increase my Dr, I become paired with drivers of similar talent. If they are too fast for me, then I fall in Dr. But as I continuously learn, I get faster and my Dr rises once again. This is represented by the peaks and valleys of my Dr and with over 100 points, I believe this is enough data to fully represent my own learning curve. The ultimate test for this will be to see where my Dr truly is once I hit day 203. Of course though, as mentioned by @Robben eventually we will all peg out and plateau. This is definitely a possability and highly likely a if/when I enter Dr S. I definitely dont have ORMA snow speed haha. Because this data does factor your learning curve I believe it works for me and I think it may be accurate to a point. It just depends where my ultimate skill level is. Will it be where I am now, or will it be later in Dr A or can I continue to learn and progress as I have until now? By no means is this algorithm a "end all tell all". I figured it'd be more fun to work on than my thesis (it was). I can't wait to see how accurate this is by day 203.
------------------TUTORIAL------------------
So, how do you do this? I'll walk you through step by step and include my full excel sheet at the end of this post. Note: This tutorial is best for someone who is familiar with excel. I will not be going over basic nuances with the program, but feel free to ask any questions in the comments section or consult the internet as there are many guides/videos out there to help you with the process.
Step one: Copy/paste your Kudos Prime data into excel as seen by the light blue box. It should paste in without issue, especially if you consider using paste special command.
Step two: Right next to those columns create another day column and forecast to what ever day you would like. For me, I simply doubled the amount of time I played from 101 days to 203 days. The new day column is now in ascending order, this is okay.
Step three: Now it gets tricky. Next to the new day column (in my case H2) you will want to enter the prediction formula which is =FORECAST(G2,$B$2:$B$103,$A$2:$A$103) where G2 is my first predicted day, $B$2:$B$103 is my Dr history, and $A$2:$A$103 is the days played. This formula can be dragged down (Info here: https://support.office.com/en-us/ar...-for-mac-dd928259-622b-473f-9a33-83aa1a63e218) and you should notice that G2 will change to G3 and G4 as it is dragged down. The rest of the formula should be the same as it is hooked by $. Be sure to change the numbers to fit your data, as you may not be predicting to B/A103, it all depends on how many rows of data you have. If you follow my setup exactly, everything else should be the same.
And ta-da! You now have a predicted Dr history which you may now graph via a scatter plot. I will end my tutorial here and refer you to (https://support.office.com/en-us/ar...ne-chart-4570a80f-599a-4d6b-a155-104a9018b86e) if you are unfamiliar with scatter plots
The excel plot is attached below, please see sheet two.
Consider trying this method and be sure to post your data/graphs here! I hope this helps!
Last edited:
and for some reason the OP's and my first prediction by the forecast formula is to drop another few thousand 
