80-85 [R]Cerbera UKvsUS sw45to24,20,19,9,8 blueRX7(1/4)i
218-223 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to24,21,19,11,5 blueRX7(dup)a
224-229 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS q6SS11 1st45to25 blueRX7(dup)a
230-235 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to23,20,18,13,6 blueRX7(dup)a
236-241 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to28 blueRX7(dup)a???
248-253 [R]CerberaLM UKvsUS sw45to22,22,20,11,5 blueRX7(dup)i
272-277 [R]CerberaNOT UKvsUS sw45to26 greenRX7(2/4)i+a
278-283 [R]CerberaNOT UKvsUS sw45to28 greenRX7(dup)a
296-301 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to24,24,14,13,5 greenRX7(dup)a
309-314 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to25,19,19,11,6 blueRX7(dup)a
315-320 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to24,24,14,13,6 greenRX7(dup)a
321-326 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to26,22,14,12,6 yellowConcept(3/4)a
327-332 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to28 yellowConcept(dup)a
333-338 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to26,19,18,12,5 yellowConcept(dup)a
347-352 [R]RT/10 UKvsUS sw45to22,20,17,14,7 purpleConcept(4/4*)a!
It seemed to me that that game would get stuck in ruts of winning some particular prize for some event. But considering all my games overall, the purple Concept Car seemed more common than the yellow overall. And it sort of seemed like the "rare" prizes were more common early in the games than later.
Viewing a collection of results from different games, I got...
12 green RX-7
9 purple Concept Car
8 blue RX-7
3 yellow Concept Car
I remember winning this car years back. It was one of the best cars I have ever driven in the Gran Turismo series. The yellow paint is remarkably stunning to my eyes that my eyes see. If Dodge made the Concept Car into a street car, then I would definitely purchase it no matter how hard the procedure of obtaining the car will possibly be.
Fine. You'll be sent to prison for 70 years, and then you only get to drive on roads with a limit of 25M/H for 10 minutes.
Doesn"t sound fun now, huh?
which is not far off, especially considering I stopped the experiment on the first 5-of-a-kind. (Note you do not expect your observed results to exactly match the perfect probability distribution, but you do not expect them to be consistently off, either).
Stats
If I recorded the AI fields, it was not in the computer files. I do have accompanying paper records of this stuff in 3-ring binders.
HHHTTTHHTTTTHHH
as a precise order-dependent event, is, strictly-speaking, just as likely or unlikely as
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH or TTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
But characterized only as having 8H and 7T in 15 throws, it represents a lot more likely event than the other two. (I.e. [I claim] there is no characterization of 15H/15 or 15T/15 which is a likely event).
Similarly HTHTHTHTHTHTHTH, THTHTHTHTHTHTHT are each just as unlikely as
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH or TTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
(But if characterized as 8H and 7T or 7H and 8H they are part of that relatively likely set).
But similarly, as the length of a run of a single result, e.g. HHHH gets longer, that becomes more unlikely. But, as pairs, HH HT TH and TT are all equally likely. Reflecting the fact that subsequent results are not (in a truly random situation) affected by previous events. When you go to three results, a mixed result does become more likely, however. (6 mixed to 2 with the same).
HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT
A quick scan of my Tuned series results suggested that the Trueno is a more likely prize than the Skyline. (The Trueno occurs more often, and has longer runs).(That's the only series I repeated and recorded a great number of times, I believe). I might post more details later.
If I recorded the AI fields, it was not in the computer files. I do have accompanying paper records of this stuff in 3-ring binders.
Our discussion relates tangentially to any attempt to prove that the yellow Concept car is actually rarer than any of the other 3 prizes for the USvsUK series.
I.e. it relates to how difficult, in practice, it is to get the yellow Concept Car from where you get it.
Start day: 357
Prize: Eunos Roadster
Colour: Lilac
User: Eunos V-Spec (27pt)
CR-X EF8 (14)
Asti RX (10)
Cyborg R (10)
Trueno AE86 (8)
Demio GL-X (6)
Start day: 362
Prize: EK Civic Type-R
Colour: Yellow
User: Eunos V-Spec (27pt)
CTR (18)
Trueno BZG (10)
Civic SiR-II (9)
Asti RX (8)
Demio GL-X (3)
Start day: 366
Prize: EK Civic Type-R
Colour: Yellow
User: Eunos V-Spec (27pt)
CR-X EF8 (18)
Civic SiR-II (10)
Asti RX (7)
Demio GL-X (7)
Trueno AE86 (6)
Start day: 370
Prize: EK Civic Type-R
Colour: Blue
User: Eunos V-Spec (27pt)
ITR (18)
Cyborg (10)
Levin AE86 (8)
CR-X EF8 (7)
Demio GL-X (5)
Start day: 374
Prize: EK Civic Type-R
Colour: Pink
User: Eunos V-Spec (27pt)
CTR (18)
Civic SiR-II (10)
Asti RX (10)
Trueno BZG (7)
Demio GL-X (3)
Start day: 390
Prize: EK Civic Type-R
Colour: Pink
User: Eunos V-Spec (27pt)
ITR (18)
CTR (11)
Trueno AE86 (9)
Asti RX (7)
Demio GL-X (3)
Start day: 395
Prize: Eunos Roadster
Colour: Gold
User: Eunos V-Spec (27pt)
CR-X EF8 (16)
Levin BZG (13)
Asti RX (10)
Starlet (6)
Demio GL-X (3)
Can you elaborate on that. Especially your first assertion about 1 in 16.FamineIncidentally, the odds of this combination (ABABABAB) are 1 in 16, the same as any other combination of prize cars. The odds of me predicting it, however, are 1 in 256 (1 in 2, eight times).
#!/usr/bin/perl -w
#
# Sort the characters in each input line.
# That is, "ABGHEEC" will become "ABCEEGH".
# Blanks lines will be ignored and removed.
# (Makes manual generation of input easier).
# It is also assumed spaces will never be significant in the input.
#
# This was for counting order-independent combinations given lists
# of order-dependent permutations.
#
while (<>) {
$s = $_;
next if $s =~ /^ *$/;
$s =~ s/\n//g;
$s =~ s/(.)/$1 /g;
@a = split(/ /,$s);
# print("@a\n");
@a = sort(@a);
$s = "@a";
$s =~ s/ //g;
print $s, "\n";
}
Did you do all your experiments in one continuous "powered on" session?
Unless I misunderstand, you should really say ABCDEFGH not ABABABAB. There are certainly more than 16 combinations of (A|B,A|B),(C|D,C|D),(E|F,E|F),(G|H,G|H). Just start enumerating them. 4*4*4*4, as I say. As do you, too, actually.
(Also 256 combinations) gives only 9 unique order independent combinations. (Corresponding to the possible number of A's (or B's), including zero).
Code:#!/usr/bin/perl -w # # Sort the characters in each input line. # That is, "ABGHEEC" will become "ABCEEGH". # Blanks lines will be ignored and removed. # (Makes manual generation of input easier). # It is also assumed spaces will never be significant in the input. # # This was for counting order-independent combinations given lists # of order-dependent permutations. # while (<>) { $s = $_; next if $s =~ /^ *$/; $s =~ s/\n//g; $s =~ s/(.)/$1 /g; @a = split(/ /,$s); # print("@a\n"); @a = sort(@a); $s = "@a"; $s =~ s/ //g; print $s, "\n"; }
Its rare? Last night I decided to pop in GT1 in my PS3, started my new-ish save and traded a Viper GTS-R or w/e its called into my garage, did the UK vs US and won the yellow version first try.👍