2022 NASCAR Discussion ThreadNASCAR 

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Blaney finishing second in points but being out of the playoffs would be WILD, and it's a very real possibility. Watkins Glen and Daytona could allow for another unlikely winner. I could easily see Brad K, Michael McDowell, or Ricky Stenhouse steal a race win at Daytona. Almirola, Austin Dillon, and Bubba Wallace also have a restrictor plate win on their Cup resume.
 
Gragson to the #42 is official. Petty-GMS probably now has the best driver lineup of the lower mid tier teams presuming Noah transfers well to the Cup series.

 
Kurt is out yet again. This sucks. I'm really concerned two of the drivers I tend to like most in Kurt and Blaney may not make the playoffs. All it will take is two winners under them to knock them out. Kurt is now officially last of those who have at least one win and is only going to lose more points if he continues to sit out. :grumpy:
 
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Dolph Drago
Kurt is out yet again. This sucks. I'm really concerned two of the drivers I tend to like most in Kurt and Blaney may not make the playoffs. All it will take is two winners under them to knock them out. Kurt is now officially last of those who have at least one win and is only going to lose more points if he continues to sit out. :grumpy:
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As long as he stays in the top 30, he won't be eliminated from the playoffs if only one other driver wins. He sits 201 points ahead of Corey Lajoie in 31st. The issue will be if 2 other drivers win or if a driver like Haley, Buescher, Keselowski, Burton or Stenhouse win multiple times/win once and have good runs. In addition, if he doesn't make it back in 3 weeks, all of this is irrelevant as he will be eliminated from the playoffs if not medically cleared.
 
Northstar
Gragson to the #42 is official. Petty-GMS probably now has the best driver lineup of the lower mid tier teams presuming Noah transfers well to the Cup series.

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I'm honestly a little surprised, I always thought he would tough it out at JRM while they figure out their cup plans. We'll see how it shakes out for him.
 
I don't think JRM has ever really had serious plans to go to cup, at least not in any of the interviews that I've seen.
 
ICEYOU3
I'm honestly a little surprised, I always thought he would tough it out at JRM while they figure out their cup plans. We'll see how it shakes out for him.
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I don't think waiting is a luxury he can afford considering the soonest I can see JRM entering Cup is 2025 when the new TV deal takes effect as the teams will supposedly get a bigger piece of the pie.

RACECAR
I don't think JRM has ever really had serious plans to go to cup, at least not in any of the interviews that I've seen.
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He's expressed the desire to move to Cup in his podcast but stated the cost of charters is too high. That could obviously just be a bluff though, after all he's not going to spill such big news in a random interview/discussion. Hendrick re-starting their Xfinity team could also be a sign that he's devesting from JRM, which would need to happen for a Cup move.
 
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Blitz24
As long as he stays in the top 30, he won't be eliminated from the playoffs if only one other driver wins. He sits 201 points ahead of Corey Lajoie in 31st. The issue will be if 2 other drivers win or if a driver like Haley, Buescher, Keselowski, Burton or Stenhouse win multiple times/win once and have good runs. In addition, if he doesn't make it back in 3 weeks, all of this is irrelevant as he will be eliminated from the playoffs if not medically cleared.
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Yeah, it's not the staying in the top 30 I'm worried about. It's the 2 drivers 16th on down winning. I hope he makes it, but it would be terrible if he couldn't participate because he didn't fully recover in time.
 
Harvick and Co. had been out to lunch for a year and a half. I did not expect two in a row from them. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if there was one more lap, though. Bell came flying up through there. I don't know if one lap would have been enough, but he very well may have taken him if there were two laps.

With Harvick repeating, that means as long as the final two races aren't both new winners, Kurt is safe. But here's a hypothetical: Let's say Truex wins one and the other is a repeat winner. Then they find out before the playoffs start that Kurt still isn't healthy enough to race. Does Blaney get in by points? Or do they do something typically NASCAR dumb and only have a 15 driver field?
 
Dolph Drago
With Harvick repeating, that means as long as the final two races aren't both new winners, Kurt is safe. But here's a hypothetical: Let's say Truex wins one and the other is a repeat winner. Then they find out before the playoffs start that Kurt still isn't healthy enough to race. Does Blaney get in by points? Or do they do something typically NASCAR dumb and only have a 15 driver field?
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So if Busch makes playoffs but is still unable to drive thru first round. He would be eliminated round 1.
 
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There are certain scenarios where Kurt Busch could miss the next 2 races, we have 2 new winners, and he would still make the field of 16 because the 17th winner would still have fewer points (or Busch would win the tiebreaker based on his one 2nd-place and two 3rd-place finishes). The one closest to Busch, but still at least a race behind, is Ricky Stenhouse, currently 75 points behind Busch (he the only driver behind Busch who could hold the tiebreaker as he has a 2nd-place finish, though his next-best is a 7th). That is a no-stage-points win and no-stage-points 2nd back.

Going a bit further back to 115 points behind Busch (which is a max-stage-points win and max-stage-points 2nd), there's Cole Custer (-82), Michael McDowell (-92), Brad Keselowski (-92) and Harrison Burton (-99). Of those at least a full race behind Busch, McDowell is the one most likely to both get a win and get past Busch as he is a road course specialist and Front Row Motorsports has become rather strong at the superspeedways.

Going to the backmarkers among full-time drivers, Todd Gilliland, Ty Dillon and Corey Lajoie (who would have to make up 53 points to get to 30th) can't catch Busch with just one win, and Cody Ware can't get to 30th even with 2 wins.

There's precedent for expanding the playoffs - in 2013, Jeff Gordon was added as the 13th driver in a "12"-driver field after punished shenanigans by MWR (which pushed Martin Truex Jr. out in favor of Ryan Newman) and unpunished shenanigans by Penske/Front Row (which allegedly got Joey Logano in) in the regular season finale. It certainly is possible that if we have 16 winners (or 17 and Busch is 16th among them), that would happen again if Busch is not ready to go at Darlington.

Edit - I should point out it is no longer possible for Ryan Blaney to win the regular-season title without a race win, which is the other guaranteed way to make the playoffs.
 
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So, Jordan Bianchi on the most recent episode of The Teardown podcast said that "from the conversations I've had with people" (his words, not mine), it sounds like there may be some interesting things happening behind the scenes at 23XI. He went on to say that he wouldn't be shocked if Kyle Busch ended up leaving JGR for them. He says this around the 44:50 mark on the podcast.

Obviously there's not much of anything to work with, but Bianchi does mention that 23XI seems more willing to open up their pocket book than most other teams. He cites the team being built around Bubba since pretty much it's inception, as well as them signing on Kurt Busch and Reddick as evidence of this.

Personally, even though I do root for the team, I have a hard time seeing such a signing happen. I think it's still much more likely that Kyle ends up at SHR. In particular, even though I know nothing about their working relationship and have absolutely nothing to go off of, part of me thinks that Kyle wouldn't exactly be eager to be under Hamlin's thumb. But if Kyle were to end up at 23XI, I'd say it would instantly become one of the most eclectic teams on the grid in terms of personnel.
 
NotThePrez
So, Jordan Bianchi on the most recent episode of The Teardown podcast said that "from the conversations I've had with people" (his words, not mine), it sounds like there may be some interesting things happening behind the scenes at 23XI. He went on to say that he wouldn't be shocked if Kyle Busch ended up leaving JGR for them. He says this around the 44:50 mark on the podcast.

Obviously there's not much of anything to work with, but Bianchi does mention that 23XI seems more willing to open up their pocket book than most other teams. He cites the team being built around Bubba since pretty much it's inception, as well as them signing on Kurt Busch and Reddick as evidence of this.

Personally, even though I do root for the team, I have a hard time seeing such a signing happen. I think it's still much more likely that Kyle ends up at SHR. In particular, even though I know nothing about their working relationship and have absolutely nothing to go off of, part of me thinks that Kyle wouldn't exactly be eager to be under Hamlin's thumb. But if Kyle were to end up at 23XI, I'd say it would instantly become one of the most eclectic teams on the grid in terms of personnel.
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So if Kyle were to leave JGR for Trackhouse, that would mean they would be expanding to 3 cars next year (no idea if that means the 91 would be a 4th entry like it is this year or if this a 1 year attempt). Only way I can see him go to SHR is if Almirola definitely retires (he's been a bit uncertain as of late after his declaration earlier this year).
 
Tonight is round 13 of the 2022 eNASCAR Coca-Cola iRacing Series from Watkins Glen International.
 
So it looks like Kurt's sidelined for Watkins Glen and Daytona. That waiver's looking more and more worthless with each week. :scared:
 
Suzuki-Cara
So it looks like Kurt's sidelined for Watkins Glen and Daytona. That waiver's looking more and more worthless with each week. :scared:
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The worst case scenario would be is if he cannot go for Darlington and we get 2 more winners (other than the winners being Truex and Blaney).
 
Blitz24
The worst case scenario would be is if he cannot go for Darlington and we get 2 more winners (other than the winners being Truex and Blaney).
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racer.com

Kurt Busch remains sidelined for Watkins Glen and Daytona

Kurt Busch will be sidelined from NASCAR Cup Series competition for at least another two weeks. Busch announced Thursday afternoon he will not race this weekend on the Watkins Glen International ro…
racer.com racer.com

Interesting little tidbit at the end of the article being his status will be announced at the end of Daytona.
 
Really there's no reason for Kurt to come back until the playoffs start at this point. Ty has been holding his own and Kurt's win will more than likely be enough to get in the playoffs. Plus if you factor in the fact Watkins Glen and Daytona are also capable of delivering some pretty hard hits it makes the decision to let Kurt heal some more and give Ty a little more seat time that much easier.
 
Northstar
Really there's no reason for Kurt to come back until the playoffs start at this point. Ty has been holding his own and Kurt's win will more than likely be enough to get in the playoffs. Plus if you factor in the fact Watkins Glen and Daytona are also capable of delivering some pretty hard hits it makes the decision to let Kurt heal some more and give Ty a little more seat time that much easier.
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Except if the following drivers win:
Blaney
Truex
Almirola
Jones
Wallace
Austin Dillon

And I'd add in Buescher and Haley for good measure.

If two of the drivers mentioned above win, then Busch should NOT, under any circumstances, be granted a waiver for the playoffs.
 
Blitz24
Except if the following drivers win:
Blaney
Truex
Almirola
Jones
Wallace
Austin Dillon

And I'd add in Buescher and Haley for good measure.

If two of the drivers mentioned above win, then Busch should NOT, under any circumstances, be granted a waiver for the playoffs.
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My understanding is that the waiver only applies to the requirement to attempt every race, not the requirements to be in the top 30 overall (which Busch would still be inside, and which NASCAR enforced on the owners' side a few years back when the backmarking 77 won a rain-shortened Pocono race by staying out) and be among the top 16 among race winners if there are more than 16 race winners

Daytona is a crapshoot, where luck is the important thing. Only a few winless drivers are realistic threats to win at Watkins Glen:
  • Martin Truex, who has a win, two 2nds, and a 3rd in his last 4 Watkins Glen starts
  • Ryan Blaney, who has a road course win (the Charlotte ROVAL) and five top-5's (including a fifth at Watkins Glen) in 23 road course starts
  • Chris Buescher, who has three top-5's in 24 road course starts, though his best finish at Watkins Glen is 11th
  • Michael McDowell, who would also need a good run at Daytona to catch Busch in the standings, finished 3rd at Sonoma earlier this year
 

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