That seems to be a rather big leap on both counts.
Actually, yes, that is purely speculation, because we will never know unless we look at the actual code.
But after so many years, I have come to the conclusion that GT (up until now, v5 included) uses a very simplistic model (in terms of algorithm complexity), whether Forza (only played 2 and 3) uses a much more advanced model (again, in terms of algorithm complexity).
Ok, here is a little lesson about that field we call "computer simulation".
Everything is algorithms. In a sense, everything is just math. The basic purpose of any computer simulation is just the same as any mathematical function: given a set of inputs (what you state), you obtain a set of outputs (what you simulate).
Now, when speaking of "physics engines" we speak of simulations that aim to simulate a set of "real world" physical rules. Such simulations can be iterative (some of the outputs are the inputs of the next iteration). This is the case of video gaming simulation.
When developing such engines, there are no "set in stone" way of doing things. You just have to do with what you have, which is 1/ what you know of the real world and its rules, 2/ what processing power is available. Point 2 is obviously much more important when speaking of real time simulation.
Those points are important because this is why a simulation will never be perfect. Ever. Even if we would have the processing power to simulate every atom of the car, the road, the air, whatever, we would still not have a perfect simulation, as even our most advanced knowledge in quantum mechanics is most likely flawed (such is the way of science, we will NEVER know the "truth", but I digress).
Then, you have to decide of an implementation of your physics engine. As I said, even a somewhat complex problem such as simulating the behavior of a car can be summarized as a mathematical function that produces a set of outputs (position and orientation of the car, relative position and rotation of wheels, and whatever you may want to reproduce "physically"), given a set of inputs (driving wheel, accelerator, and brake status, at the very least, and of course the previous sate of the car).
At this stage, we have to keep in mind that we can not compute everything, not even every component of the car (pistons, brake fluid, you name it). So, to compute simulation results so that they seem realistic, you have to decide at what point you will have to resort to mathematical approximations.
I'll explain.
Two of the possible ways of doing things are:
1/ "I will build a huge mathematical function that matches as closely as possible the known real life values representing the behavior of the car".
2/ "I will apply what I know of physical rules (friction, solid state physics, etc.) to determine how basic components will interact with each other in this virtual car I'm kinda building, and then I will build small mathematical functions that matches as closely as possible the known real life values representing the behavior of the components".
As you can see, it is in the end a matter of determining at which level of detail you will stop applying "physical rules" and start using "mathematical approximations". Because you *will* have to use them.
This being explained, I will state that I firmly believe Gran Turismo 5 use a simplistic physics engine with general behavior approximations, and Forza 3 use a more complex physics engine with smaller components approximation.
But there is one thing one shall never forget in all this: There is no "best" way of doing things. Because realism is a lie. Realism is the realm of the mind. All there is is accuracy. And accuracy is only measured as precisely as the density of real life values we do have. Not to mention accuracy itself can be measured in a number of ways.
So yes, any global mathematical function built so that it reproduces exactly known real life values will do just that, reproduce known real life values, and therefore will be very "accurate" going by the data we possess. Yet it's all the "in-between" that's important. Because fitting some real-life values does not mean the function will be "accurate" in all situations. At all.
Of course, using a more advanced algorithm which does not manage to reproduce known real life values will at least not be very "accurate" on those values. And of course it does not mean it will be globally more "accurate" either. Yet, it can still be more "accurate" globally. Because if we don't have corresponding real life values, we just don't know.
But then again, this lesson excluded, whatever is done under the hood of GT and Forza is still pure speculation.
I just thought I would share this with you guys. And in before some trivial questions, yes, I do work in the field of scientific simulation (the actual subject is boring stuff I won't talk about).
Note: I shall add that we cannot know what the physics engine really computes unless the graphics engine is true 1:1 to this physics engine. And there is no way of knowing if this is the case in either GT or Forza.