To be honest, I don't think the "fear" of GTA stealing the thunder from a bunch of different games is unwarranted.
Remember that GTA 5
made $800 Million within its first 24 hours launching on the very much end-of-life consoles that were PS3 and Xbox 360. I haven't been able to find a hard confirmation anywhere, but it reportedly sold over 30 million copies within the first year of its launch, which is roughly equivalent to all the sales for Halo 1 to Wars
combined. The series is genuinely a cultural icon that's extremely hard to compete against, and 5 in particular carried its momentum for quite some time.
With the extreme amount of hype surrounding VIs release, unless the game absolutely bombs on launch, I think it'll be even harder to compete against it, and it'll be that way through to the holidays. As such, I can understand game studios being weary of releasing around or not too long after VI becomes available.
To that end, if I were Microsoft, I'd want the new Forza and/or Fable to launch some time in Q1 of 2026. With the Xbox ROG Ally thingy, and with FH5 being quite successful on PS5, there isn't as much of a need for Forza to be a console seller or holiday blockbuster like it has been for the last few years, and with the frankly sorry state the console racing genre is in right now, a new Forza Horizon in particular would basically corner the market in that regard, while also not losing too much interest from trying to compete with GTA.