The odds for every ticket in the game (according to your collector level) and also the odds of getting each prize on each ticket grade are on this site:
Tickets that give out Special Car Parts, Engines and Invitations: 4*, 5*, 6* (Engines/Parts, the regular 6*, for whatever dumb reason doesn't give out invitations or engine swaps or special car parts).
I'm going to start with the Invitations, which is the one thing that is restricted to being won in roulette tickets that has the "best" odds:
Collector Level 20: Odds of getting 4* tickets or higher:
4* = 58% ----- 5* = 5% ----- 6* (no invitations) = 63%
So,
on average, in a 100 day period, you'll have 63 tickets with a chance to give you an invitation. Doesn't seem bad for now... for now...
Chances of getting an invitation from a 4* ticket or higher:
4* = 10% ---- 5* = 8%
So, of the
average 58 4* tickets you will get from that 100 day period, only 1/10th of them will give you invitations. That's 5.8 days that you will get an invitation on a 100 day period from 4* tickets, and 0.4 days from the 5* tickets, which gives us 6.2 days total on a 100 day period. There's 7 Brand invites in the game, so basically, you could get 6 of them in the 100 day period. Which at first glance doesn't look that bad really, still bad design, since the casual GT7 player (or any casual gamer for that matter) won't play a game for that long in the first place, but I still can't say it's completely nuts or criminal.
But after that is where the problem lies... Because there's always a chance of you getting a duplicate, and it happens far more often than you think and have experienced.
So, if you're one of those who is only after one invitation, the odds of those 6.2 days get dropped to 1/7th of that, which is ~0.89 days in a 100 time period. Or 1 day just to round things up.
Yes.. 1 in 100 days (1%). So no wonder someone like me who has been playing since launch almost every day (300 days or thereabouts for sure) still hasn't gotten a Ferrari invite aside from when PD offered us all of the invites in April and during the Roulette glitch.
So again, terrible odds. And it makes it worse that it's timed to 1 month and then you have to get the invite again.
PS: And also it's worth noting that around June or July there was an update that made the odds of getting 4* tickets or higher, much higher than before at collector level 20 or above. It's at 58% now, but it used to be 25%, basically, less than half.
... These however, don't even come close to the engines and especially the car parts. But I'll show them to you anyway:
I'll do the engines now:
Same reasoning as above, however, we can add another 1% from the 6* (Engine) ticket (it's 3% for the 6* overall but we assume it's 1% for every kind of 6* (there's the "Parts" 6*. "Engine" 6* and the normal 6* which only gives credits and cars).
So, on
average, in a 100 day period, you'll have 64 tickets with a chance to give you an engine, of which 1 of them is a guarantee.
Chances of getting an engine from a 4* ticket or higher:
4* = 3% ----- 5* = 5% ----- 6* "Engine" = 100%
Same calculations done above for the invitations. That's 1.74 days for 4*, 0.25 days for 5* and 1 day for the 6*.
Which totals 2.99 days in a 100 day time period that you will get engines (
on average, I can't stress this enough).
Now is where you start to realize how broken this "randomness" is.
There's... 28 engines in the game (they are listed on a sticky thread of the GT7 sub-forum), for a total of 55 swaps, which means you need 55 engines to get all the swaps (and this keeps increasing for almost every update that is done to the game.
So, for you to get those 55 swaps, you would need,
on average,
5 years to get them all,
assuming you don't get extra duplicates. ((55 engines/2.99 days) = 18.394 -> x 100 days time period to get the days needed (it's 2.99 for every 100 days) and then / by 365 to get the time in years.
Yes... A minimum of 5 years of playing this game every single day to be able to experience all the swaps. 🤡
If you're looking for just 1 specific engine swap, the odds of getting it are 1/28th of the 2.99 days, which translates to, an astounding ~0.1%. 🤡
What we have so far:
6.2% to get an invitation
0.89% to get one specific invitation
+
2.99% to get an engine
0.1% to get one specific engine
Now let's go to the big one, the special parts:
Same odds (in terms of tickets) as the engines, 64 times in 100 day time period.
Chances of getting a Special Part from a 4* ticket or higher:
4* = 10% ----- 5* = 10% ----- 6* "Parts" = 100%
This translates to 5.8 days for 4*, 0.5 days for 5* and 1 day for 6*, which totals 7.3 days that you get a special car part.
The last time I did a list of these parts, was quite a few months ago, it was during the roulette glitch, where I, alongside a community from Discord were able to gather 205 Special Car Parts. However, I know for a fact there's more than this now with the addition of Brand Central cars via updates that have special car parts, such as the Chiron for example. But I'll just use 205 anyway.
Same calculation I did for the engines. For you to get all of those special car parts, on average, you would need
7.69 years to get them all. Again, assuming you don't get any duplicates, which is borderline impossible, so realistically, the time needed is
exponentially higher than this.
(But I guess the century calculation I made a while ago is indeed wrong and I messed up somewhere, or maybe I did the calculations for the older roulette system which indeed was in fact centuries of time needed to get all of these parts).
If you want a specific car part, that's 1/205 of the 7.2 days... Which is an absolutely impressive 0.035%
So:
7.3% to get a special car part
0.035% to get one specific part
Now add all of these years together, and take into account that you will inevitably get duplicates, and you'll be looking at decades worth of playing this game to have a chance at experiencing everything this game has to offer as far as Invitations, Engines and Special Car Parts are concerned.
Incredible game design indeed... Designed so that your grandsons can follow in your footsteps to get those damn things.
You can argue that no one wants everything, but then you look at the things you want, and the % of the SPECIFIC things you would want is shockingly low. All of which are below 1%.
