Quakebass
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With all the talks of which console the next GT game will release on, let’s break this all down:
Each PlayStation console release since the PS2 has been almost exactly 7 years apart from each other.
PS2 - March 2000
PS3 - November 2006
PS4 - November 2013
PS5 - November 2020
While this pattern would indicate a November 2027 release for the PS6, consider the other current and past landscapes the tech industry has been facing:
I wouldn’t be surprised if Sony goes for a PS5 pro model to compete with Nintendo’s new Switch, and then push the PS6 back a bit, maybe ‘28 or ‘29. The PS5 didn’t really exit its “scalping era” till around late 2022, and I think there’s a lot it still has to offer given there’s still games being released on it that are cross platform. A Pro within the next 12-18 months could push the hard PS5 switch. Pushing the PS6 back could potentially allow that console to make use of GDDR8 when it’s cheaper to manufacture, as well as giving the 5 Pro more legs. Nintendo doesn’t generally operate on the schedules of the other hardware giants, and Xbox is struggling, so Sony would have the opportunity to take advantage of the max market IMO.
Going by this, I would expect the next GT game to be a PS5 exclusive, potentially taking advantage of the rumored 5 Pro. The last 4 GT games have taken an average of 4-4.5 years to develop, the PS3 making things wacky with an extra long and extra short dev time.
While the pattern indicates a Spring or Fall 2026 release date, this could be another GT6 type situation, where the engine and groundwork has already been built with 7 (and Sport, similar in a way to 5 and 5 Prologue), and doesn’t have to deal with cross-gen shenanigans in development. It could be a 2025 game potentially, but the intentions with 7 have been extremely vague, so it’s hard to say.
Post launch support for GT7 has been very underwhelming, and so far this has been the longest amount of time an online predecessor was left alive following a new release. It seems like 7 has been waiting to offer more but nothing really happens, neither accelerating or decelerating content drops. It’s been having more sporadic and cloudy semi-monthly content drops that are sort of a crap shoot for having medium or micro amounts of content (at least in comparison to Sport), with maybe two or three large drops (Human comedy, Sophy, Spec II respectively). It doesn’t seem like 7 has really started to slow down yet, just enter another cloudy phase, it’s been really unpredictable and directionless. The game has potential but PD hasn’t expanded it much in ways that really matter, and I don’t know if that’s been intentional or not for the design team to focus on doing GT8 “correctly” - I wouldn’t say any game since 5 or earlier has been done “correctly”.
Regardless, I would think a GT8 would line up better with a PS5 Pro than a PS6 in terms of hardware timelines.
Each PlayStation console release since the PS2 has been almost exactly 7 years apart from each other.
PS2 - March 2000
PS3 - November 2006
PS4 - November 2013
PS5 - November 2020
While this pattern would indicate a November 2027 release for the PS6, consider the other current and past landscapes the tech industry has been facing:
- Covid caused slow deployment and uptick initially in new hardware with chip shortages
- In general, hardware performance increases over time has been decelerating
- Xbox is struggling with hardware sales, now releasing some of its exclusives and IP’s on PlayStation and other competitors
- Nintendo is gearing up for the successor to the Switch very soon
- GDDR7 type RAM will begin to roll out for consumers later this year
I wouldn’t be surprised if Sony goes for a PS5 pro model to compete with Nintendo’s new Switch, and then push the PS6 back a bit, maybe ‘28 or ‘29. The PS5 didn’t really exit its “scalping era” till around late 2022, and I think there’s a lot it still has to offer given there’s still games being released on it that are cross platform. A Pro within the next 12-18 months could push the hard PS5 switch. Pushing the PS6 back could potentially allow that console to make use of GDDR8 when it’s cheaper to manufacture, as well as giving the 5 Pro more legs. Nintendo doesn’t generally operate on the schedules of the other hardware giants, and Xbox is struggling, so Sony would have the opportunity to take advantage of the max market IMO.
Going by this, I would expect the next GT game to be a PS5 exclusive, potentially taking advantage of the rumored 5 Pro. The last 4 GT games have taken an average of 4-4.5 years to develop, the PS3 making things wacky with an extra long and extra short dev time.
- GT5 ~5.5 years (November 2010)
- GT6 3 years (December 2013)
- GTS ~3.8 years (October 2017)
- GT7 ~4.5 years (March 2022)
While the pattern indicates a Spring or Fall 2026 release date, this could be another GT6 type situation, where the engine and groundwork has already been built with 7 (and Sport, similar in a way to 5 and 5 Prologue), and doesn’t have to deal with cross-gen shenanigans in development. It could be a 2025 game potentially, but the intentions with 7 have been extremely vague, so it’s hard to say.
Post launch support for GT7 has been very underwhelming, and so far this has been the longest amount of time an online predecessor was left alive following a new release. It seems like 7 has been waiting to offer more but nothing really happens, neither accelerating or decelerating content drops. It’s been having more sporadic and cloudy semi-monthly content drops that are sort of a crap shoot for having medium or micro amounts of content (at least in comparison to Sport), with maybe two or three large drops (Human comedy, Sophy, Spec II respectively). It doesn’t seem like 7 has really started to slow down yet, just enter another cloudy phase, it’s been really unpredictable and directionless. The game has potential but PD hasn’t expanded it much in ways that really matter, and I don’t know if that’s been intentional or not for the design team to focus on doing GT8 “correctly” - I wouldn’t say any game since 5 or earlier has been done “correctly”.
Regardless, I would think a GT8 would line up better with a PS5 Pro than a PS6 in terms of hardware timelines.
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