But a racing franchise lives or dies on the backs of the long-term enthusiast. .
Many conclusions you have drawn are pretty much wrong, but this one is 100% right.
I really fail to understand how exactly could a game like Shift produce it's longevity based on content which is nothing but cars and tracks and no real options and content for "long-term enthusiast" (presuming that "long-term" means "more demanding consumers" which implies "hard-core community").
I also fail to understand how can game that makes it's physics less-realistic and it's "long-term" options more vague become interesting for those type of players.
Although I understand your disappointment in GT5 "game-wise", I really see no other contender that can even come close to it "long-term" wise.
It would be great world in which all driving-games would evolve corresponding to the possibilities of today's technology. But they just do not. I describe that present moment as "Paradox Point".
This is the main problem of the overall driving genre and in future it will be even more evident.
On one side, you have something that no other genre has in cumulative: ability to portray the essence of your genre up to almost being "real" experience. Force feedback technology, processor power for graphics/sounds/AI and online racing pretty much gives unprecedented package where adequate implementation of "real" details can produce most immersive experience of all genres.
On the other side you have market, where people who actually wants to have "real" experience are distant minority when numbers needed to make the title profitable are in context.
As developer/publisher I have all tools and tech on my disposal to make perfect simulation. But who will actually drive it? How can I make it accessible to majority/casuals? Unfortunately, the answer is not "make a scalable difficulty".
That is the exact place of the Paradox Point - you can also describe it as a pure Prisoner's Dilemma too.
If you make game with option of "Real", you have a problem. Average Joe wants to play it on "Real". He doesn't want to play it on "Normal". Because Average Joe knows he's the best driver out there. He can beat Burnout, NFS, whatever. And he's the "Real Deal Joe". Then Average Joe dives into "Real" and in first corner he realize he's not Real Deal Joe. Average Joe turns furious and shovels the game. Because that game can't give him the feel of being the Real Deal. He doesn't want to drive on "Normal" or "Standard" or whatever.
And there is the Paradox - you can make the game real as "Real", but making it so will alienate majority of players. And it even goes complex than that, deep into structure of rewarding.
That problem is evident in Gran Turismo 5 Seasonal Events. When Seasonal Events had HP/weight/tire-type restrictions casual majority of players were shouting their mouths about Events being "hard", "impossible", "rigged", "bugged", "broken", etc. - usual internet whine. But unfortunately, those casual majority is the main population that plays the game.
Two weeks later restrictions were gone. Praising of casuals begun big-time (fueled with exploiting the dupe-system to Jupiter) while hard-core population suddenly felt cheated. Than came the proposal "make Events scalable - give less XP/Cr for usage of assists and driving without restrictions, but award those who drive without assists and comply the restrictions". And that is the second place of Paradox Point.
If you reward the hard-core more, you again make casuals to feel incompetent. And again you're making yourself a problem because Average Joe doesn't want to get only 200,000 Cr of his drive to 1st position with aids-ON. He wants full 1.500,000 Cr for aids-OFF, Gold Trophy, 1st place everywhere and feeling he's Real Deal Joe.
You can now argue above with highlighting FM3 system where usage of assists lead to removal of Cr/XP bonuses, but since the actual physics model was catered to favor the controller, actual Paradox Point was removed due to overall limit of complexity of handling.
I see no way to resolve the Paradox Point.
Current state of gaming in total has abandoned any traces of old-school where difficulty and skill were determining the actual accomplishment. In my driving community we have numerous discussions about what we want from driving games but we're aware that times where needs of serious players were important are long gone.
Shift can't solve Paradox Point either, nor it will even try.
Shift 2 is just laying foundations for future development of the Shift franchise, probably on next-gen platforms.
EA is pretty much forward-thinker and they know what will happen with the racing genre in the future. Only established franchises in next 3 years will be able to commercially take the next step that will inevitably come on the next-gen - making driving-games an online platform, such as iRacing is now.
iRacing "model" is the future of the genre, where we will witness both Gran Turismo and Forza heading full-online, dividing in two separate incarnations: retail disc (media) games for casual players and corresponding subscription-based online community (such as iRacing is today). Disc (media) game will have the content for online and basic online features (such as we already have today in GT5 or FM2/3), but the real money and development of game lays in "platform". It is the only and logical way to assure the foundations interesting for long-term enthusiasts, and GT5 offers a great insight of development to that model. Foundations GT5 have built clearly indicates such transition is already in the works.
Be assured that planning for such broadening of the genre is already been made and that EA is preparing for jump on that train.
Making driving games an "platform" is the only way to solve the Paradox Point of the genre and save it from "casualisation". Actual single-player structure as we know it will certainly remain on disc (media) games, but only way to prolong and expand the game in long-term will be as described above.
Substantial amounts of money lays in hands of hard-core community where retail of single-media (60 something-currency) is less important than long-term revenue based on subscription model.
And at this point, Shift franchise is developing in that direction (AutoLog being most interesting feature platform-wise, and I am sure that all others will copy in the future) and we will have to wait for few more years to see will the "long-term enthusiasts" embrace it.
However, at this point, Shift franchise still have a very distant road to travel, because it still lacks all the features that could be embraced by "long-terms", but I guess it is just matter of actual franchise-development in this point of time.
It is worth to notice that this is "already" the second game, and both of Shift's rivals (from their perspective, I do not think that at this point Polyphony, nor Turn10 sees Shift as their true rival) have achieved much more in terms of market and player-acceptance with their second iterations in their point in time.
If Shift franchise manages to produce a games that can satisfy "long-terms" it will be a success. But if their creative vision lays in creating a pseudo-simulation based on current markers and do not adopt for "platform", than I see shift as just another nice racing-game made to enjoy in between playing "long-term" titles such as Gran Turismo and possibly Forza series.