North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

And so did the last 3...
I didn't say otherwise, but to claim that 45 didn't do it with significantly more pomp and circumstance would be misleading.

Even quite happy to say that Obama massively dropped the ball in regard to NK, doing far less than he could or should have.

You may recall I said from day one that Kim was never going to honour this, and was informed by some that this time would be different.

It wasn't.
 
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At least it left the rest of the world with a clear conclusion that North Korea violated the agreement, they're the bad guys. This time, there's a lot of room to conclude Trump's willful ignorance and unpreparedness failed to produce any clear guidelines, and left North Korea with a lot of wiggle room.
So the only way to know if NK is going in the right direction is to write on a piece of paper that they can't continue with developing nuclear weapons otherwise we won't know whether they should or not. Sounds legit. The process has just begun. No one shows up to a single meeting and hammers out all the details in a couple of hours. If it were Obama that's what you and the rest of the naysayers would be saying.
 
So the only way to know if NK is going in the right direction is to write on a piece of paper that they can't continue with developing nuclear weapons otherwise we won't know whether they should or not. Sounds legit. The process has just begun.
Who said that :odd:

However getting it in writing to ensure that we have a firm and commuted line in the sand for NK? Given NK's past, absolutely 100% yes.

Its not about what we need to understand what NK is doing, its about setting clear boundaries for what is or isn't acceptable in terms of NK's actions (otherwise they might use the vague terms to take one step forward and a dozen back - kind of like they just did).


No one shows up to a single meeting and hammers out all the details in a couple of hours.
Good job it wasn't a single meeting then, or did I imagine the SK meeting with NK (which is what was re-agreed to in the Trump meeting) or Pompeo travelling to NK prior to the meeting?


If it were Obama that's what you and the rest of the naysayers would be saying.
Personally no I wouldn't, but then again I've already said as much in the post directly above yours!

"Even quite happy to say that Obama massively dropped the ball in regard to NK, doing far less than he could or should have."
 
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Who said that :odd:

However getting it in writing to ensure that we have a firm and commuted line in the sand for NK? Given NK's past, absolutely 100% yes.

Its not about what we need to understand what NK is doing, its about setting clear boundaries for what is or isn't acceptable in terms of NK's actions (otherwise they might use the vague terms to take one step forward and a dozen back - kind of like they just did).



Good job it wasn't a single meeting then, or did I imagine the SK meeting with NK (which is what was re-agreed to in the Trump meeting) or Pompeo travelling to NK prior to the meeting?



Personally no I wouldn't, but then again I've already said as much in the post directly above yours!

"Even quite happy to say that Obama massively dropped the ball in regard to NK, doing far less than he could or should have."
Obama dropped the ball but that wasn't my point. My point is, this was a single meeting between Trump and Kim not a long series of summits. It was on/off/on and most didn't think it was going to happen just a month before it actually happened. Nowhere near enough ground work has been done to get a full length written agreement into place. It was an introductory meeting designed to get Kim out of the country and into the real world and presumably to show him he can lead his people to peace and prosperity if he goes in a different direction. Had it been Obama there and the conservatives ripping Obama a few weeks after the meeting for not hammering out a lengthy written agreement I'm sure someone here would be armed with a page full of links showing everyone how long it takes to actually nail an agreement, that history tells us 87.5 meetings take place on average etc. etc. etc. I'm also sure someone would be saying it was rushed, not properly negotiated, these things take time etc. It took almost 2 full years and required numerous extensions to hammer out the Iran deal and here you are after one meeting between Trump and Kim claiming the sky is falling. That was my point.

Is there any more or less threat of nuclear war now? Less IMO and that's a good thing. Is the groundwork laid for ongoing discussion and progress to be made on disarmament? Yes, IMO. Will it happen? Who knows but I'm optimistic. Could he have done more? Yeah, probably. But if it were anyone other than Trump he'd be hailed as a hero. Macron or Merkel or Trudeau or any other "acceptable" world leader there and the world press and 75% of the world would be fawning all over them and petitioning the Pope for beatification already.
 
Obama dropped the ball but that wasn't my point. My point is, this was a single meeting between Trump and Kim not a long series of summits. It was on/off/on and most didn't think it was going to happen just a month before it actually happened. Nowhere near enough ground work has been done to get a full length written agreement into place. It was an introductory meeting designed to get Kim out of the country and into the real world and presumably to show him he can lead his people to peace and prosperity if he goes in a different direction.
Then perhaps more groundwork should have been done before agreeing to what was a glorified photo-op


Had it been Obama there and the conservatives ripping Obama a few weeks after the meeting for not hammering out a lengthy written agreement I'm sure someone here would be armed with a page full of links showing everyone how long it takes to actually nail an agreement, that history tells us 87.5 meetings take place on average etc. etc. etc. I'm also sure someone would be saying it was rushed, not properly negotiated, these things take time etc.
Actually I would have ripped him for doing it, which may go some way to explain why none of 45's predecessors agreed to such a thing.


It took almost 2 full years and required numerous extensions to hammer out the Iran deal and here you are after one meeting between Trump and Kim claiming the sky is falling. That was my point.
Ever think that the NK one was done the wrong way around, that's my point.


Is there any more or less threat of nuclear war now? Less IMO and that's a good thing. Is the groundwork laid for ongoing discussion and progress to be made on disarmament? Yes, IMO. Will it happen? Who knows but I'm optimistic. Could he have done more? Yeah, probably. But if it were anyone other than Trump he'd be hailed as a hero. Macron or Merkel or Trudeau or any other "acceptable" world leader there and the world press and 75% of the world would be fawning all over them and petitioning the Pope for beatification already.
Had it been anyone other than Trump is a moot point, because it was Trump. I personally doubt that anyone other than Trump would have agreed to a meeting under these circumstances, given NK's background of breaking even formal agreements, let alone ones with loopholes you could drive the entire country through.

Nice work on making Trump out to be the victim however, not sure he would personally appreciate it.
 
But if it were anyone other than Trump he'd be hailed as a hero. Macron or Merkel or Trudeau or any other "acceptable" world leader there and the world press and 75% of the world would be fawning all over them and petitioning the Pope for beatification already.

Let's face it, Trump could walk on water and all you'd be hearing is how terrible he is because he can't swim.
 
Let's face it, Trump could walk on water and all you'd be hearing is how terrible he is because he can't swim.
Or cure cancer and then be called a homophobe because he didn't cure AIDS instead. Actually they would just call him a racist because everything is racism these days even when it has nothing to do with race. That whole post-modernism thing...
 
I think it leaves the US as much (or more) wiggle room. We get to decide when they're not being good enough. I think we need to have decided that already.

...still think we need to have decided that already. Every day that passes without some sort of response may be a mistake.
 
Or cure cancer and then be called a homophobe because he didn't cure AIDS instead. Actually they would just call him a racist because everything is racism these days even when it has nothing to do with race. That whole post-modernism thing...
At this point I wouldn't put it past you to be of the belief that the only reason he hasn't--and I do mean successfully as opposed to merely making the attempt--cured cancer is that he wouldn't get credit for it.

Now what comment of mine did you respond to and what was your response?

Screenshot_20180629-103443.png
 
So the only way to know if NK is going in the right direction is to write on a piece of paper that they can't continue with developing nuclear weapons otherwise we won't know whether they should or not. Sounds legit.

As @Scaff already pointed out, nobody said this.

The process has just begun.

Someone should inform this guy then:



No one shows up to a single meeting and hammers out all the details in a couple of hours.

Another thing nobody claimed. My objection, which I already clearly stated, is the way Trump just blusters through everything, sure that he's the world's foremost expert on anything and everything, and needs nobody else's input. Single meeting or ten meetings, it's not going to go well if Trump doesn't avail himself of proper guidance and advice.

We still have a severely under-staffed State Department, and their foremost North Korea expert left in February and hasn't been replaced yet. We still don't have an ambassador to South Korea.

To anybody who isn't a colossal egomaniac, these would seem like things that should be remedied before trying to negotiate with Kim. He walked into that summit with nowhere near a clear enough picture of the situation, or what successful, enforceable outcomes looked like. The resulting deal shows that, as @Scaff has already shown with numerous links to Korean experts criticizing the agreement.

If it were Obama that's what you and the rest of the naysayers would be saying.

Nope, if Obama had approached these situations in the same way Trump approached North Korea, I'd have had the same objections. But the Iran agreement showed us that he doesn't behave that way. The State Department was heavily involved, as were allies and other countries, both in the region and globally. The resulting deal has broad international support, creating pressure for Iran to comply. It is very detailed, with clear deadlines for key provisions, making it easy to know if and when it is violated.

---

But if it were anyone other than Trump he'd be hailed as a hero.

Let's face it, Trump could walk on water and all you'd be hearing is how terrible he is because he can't swim.

Or cure cancer and then be called a homophobe because he didn't cure AIDS instead.

*yawn*
 
Evey President has officially been lied to by Un... Next.

That said I honestly think Trump wants a war.* That's all I'm saying so don't quote me. *no link my opinion
 
Odd...not a single named source in the entire article. Normally that would be cause for skepticism.
Don't forget man, we wouldn't have "leaked government news" if it wasn't for anonymous sources. Sadly they aren't as reliable as in the past.
 
Odd...not a single named source in the entire article. Normally that would be cause for skepticism.
"I don't like the assertion so it's informed by lies."

And here I figured a similar sentiment would return to refute the notion of expertise here:


He walked into that summit with nowhere near a clear enough picture of the situation, or what successful, enforceable outcomes looked like. The resulting deal shows that, as @Scaff has already shown with numerous links to Korean experts criticizing the agreement.
----------------------------------------------------

Evey President has officially been lied to by Un... Next.
Don't forget man, we wouldn't have "leaked government news" if it wasn't for anonymous sources. Sadly they aren't as reliable as in the past.
laughslap.gif


That was quick. You managed to go from apathetic acceptance of the information to sarcastic rejection in 52 minutes (just seven minutes after the presumed use of confidential informants was brought to your attention).
 
Odd...not a single named source in the entire article. Normally that would be cause for skepticism.
Of course. History shows there have been top generals and intelligence agency directors who've openly been hellbent on war, and promoted it against Presidential policy. Famously, General Patton wanted to attack Russia, General MacArthur wanted to attack China, and Director Dulles wanted to attack Cuba. Accordingly, they had to be set down. That unnamed military and intelligence figures drop warlike hints may be a useful negotiating stratagem, sour grapes from neocon warhawks, or my choice, simple ambient noise.
 
"I don't like the assertion so it's informed by lies."

And here I figured a similar sentiment would return to refute the notion of expertise here:



----------------------------------------------------



View attachment 747778

That was quick. You managed to go from apathetic acceptance of the information to sarcastic rejection in 52 minutes (just seven minutes after the presumed use of confidential informants was brought to your attention).
Cause I really don't care anymore. Didn't read it either...
I said a long time ago it'll probably end in a war. So, no real change. Sarcasm... I even said don't quote me...
Good night.
 
Odd...not a single named source in the entire article. Normally that would be cause for skepticism.
It would, were it not supported by the satellite images showing work continues on nuclear material production facilities.

Even that aside it's still worth discussion, particularly given that if true, in means the administration was aware of the scale up leading up to and past the negotiations. It also would mean that it was aware that the facilities NK part destroyed were nothing more than a show.

You may not find that worth discussion or bringing into the conversation, I do.
 
US intelligence believe that rather than step down production of nuclear materials, NK has actually increased it.
http://thehill.com/policy/internati...lieves-north-korea-has-increased-nuclear-fuel

Probably. Seems like a solid tactical move.

NK haven't gotten anything of even nearly equivalent value for a nuclear program yet. Trump and the US are idiots if they think they can trade cessation of exercises for an entire nuclear program. Would the US give away all it's nukes for Russia stopping wargames with China? Doubtful.

If the US wants NKs nuclear capability actually gone, they need to 1. offer something that is actually of equivalent value to NK, and 2. get inspections and oversight as part of the agreement so that it's actually enforceable. NK is not stupid, as long as all they're being asked to do is pinky swear then they're just going to ignore it, like the US or any other country would.

IMO, the Clinton era Agreed Framework was the closest anyone has gotten to a legitimate and functional deal. It offered viable alternatives to NK having natively built nuclear plants and included oversight. It was pretty shaky and there's good evidence that NK was trying to work around it, but it was probably a good start to creating a situation in which NK would find it very hard to have enough high-enriched material for a bomb.

Unfortunately, GW threw out the baby with the bathwater in that case, and we've spent nearly twenty years just trying to get that far again. And now NK actually has nukes instead of just the potential to have them sometime in the future. Sometimes a wobbly deal right now is preferable to stonewalling for something perfect sometime down the road.
 
An odd assertion, are we allowed to quote you on this and ask for a reason why you think this?
Gladly, during the election both sides had anonymous sourced stories. You can tell they are fake when they disappear the next day. They are still trying to fling fake reports to do anything to smear Trump.
 
Gladly, during the election both sides had anonymous sourced stories. You can tell they are fake when they disappear the next day. They are still trying to fling fake reports to do anything to smear Trump.

Oh so they now have less validity because they are trying to smear Trump, where as before they weren't. Gotcha.
 
I even said don't quote me...
Oops.

Gladly, during the election both sides had anonymous sourced stories. You can tell they are fake when they disappear the next day. They are still trying to fling fake reports to do anything to smear Trump.
They didn't disappear, they simply got brushed to the side by new nonsense.

Inb4 he who shall not be named claims this is the genius of Trump.
 
Oh so they now have less validity because they are trying to smear Trump, where as before they weren't. Gotcha.
I didn't say that, there were a number of Hillary stories I ignored.
That said obviously all the stories are aimed at him now...
 
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It would, were it not supported by the satellite images showing work continues on nuclear material production facilities.

Even that aside it's still worth discussion, particularly given that if true, in means the administration was aware of the scale up leading up to and past the negotiations. It also would mean that it was aware that the facilities NK part destroyed were nothing more than a show.
Satellite images are usually bulletproof. Except when they're not.
C81GVTBXoAIgBaq.jpg

Mjk3MDM4NQ.jpeg


You may not find that worth discussion or bringing into the conversation, I do.
I'm literally doing exactly that, discussing it. In fact, I'm doing what you usually do, I'm questioning the sources of the information. Odd that you would start to question my desire to diminish the discussion when I'm doing the very thing you do quite often. Perhaps you don't like your completely anonymous, nameless "sources" being questioned?

I'm also getting ahead of the curve. If Trump decides to act in some way on these supposedly incriminating satellite images, this forum will be filled with references to Iraq and the WMD's.
 
So an analogy needs to be exact to be used, I disagree, but duely noted (however Ukraine and the Crimea is a lot closer that you seem to realise).
No, it needs to be comparable. You can bring up all the examples that you want of the Soviet/Russian government rolling into weaker areas and punking them and taking whatever they want while the UN and US stand with stern faces but ultimately do nothing even though they pledged they'd help because Russia has nukes and nobody wants to rock the boat. There's probably quite a bit of truth to it behind the scenes; and it probably also applies to the times the US has done the same thing. South Korea is still a significantly more powerful country than even the Ukraine, with significantly closer ties to the United States and significantly more importance on the world's stage; and North Korea is a significantly weaker country than probably even immediate-post-collapse Russia was. Not only is South Korea's humongous and fully modern standing army camped along the DMZ very likely the principle deterrent for North Korea trying to roll in and unite the country again, it would probably even make the Russian boogeyman take a long pause before directly backing an invasion to the end of the peninsula. To act as those things don't matter much compared to the US not having bases in the country sounds more than a bit like the things Bush supporters pushed throughout his presidency to justify spreading freedom, and I wasn't much of a fan of it then.



North Korea can take all of that 1950s through 1980s artillery and fire it at once, and hope that a shock and awe Zerg rush surprise attack works to butrress an invasion into a country with its own very large and most-probably-more-powerful military, and that China/Russia directly backs their play without drawing the ire of Russia/China, and the US decides to sit idly by on their aircraft carriers already sitting in that ocean and their numerous bases already on that adjacent island after theoretically leaving the peninsula, and that the countries in the UN that like to meddle around with their militaries also decide to just ignore it; because otherwise (but honestly probably even then) North Korea would not have much more than one chance to do it right before most-to-all of it is destroyed in response. Maybe it will work out a bit better than when the US turned its steely military gaze over the objections of a good chunk of the world onto the handfuls of working Soviet equipment Iraq had which hadn't already been blown up twenty years prior, carpet bombed the hell out of it and then got stuck there for nearly a decade trying to put down a region increasingly incensed to western military presence before giving up and leaving the country to descend into civil war.
 
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