North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

One thing I'm not clear on: how serious a threat does one ICBM with a single warhead actually represent? There's clearly no effective defence against a major "cold-war" style nuclear attack, but what technology is in place for destroying a single ICBM? I've read very contradictory views on this.

The threat of one ICBM is an EMP, an electromagnetic pulse potentially capable of taking down major portions of power grids and communication networks, maybe for a long time.

There is technology to take down ICBMs. But it does not appear to be reliable and/or in place. But I'm no expert on any of this.
 
Short of getting rid of Kim, I'm not sure there is a realistic option available (that doesn't involve major loss of life) other than "welcoming" NK into the nuclear club & trying to contain the threat from there on.

I think that's pretty much all we can do. I think his people might start to revolt when they realize food doesn't flood into the country the moment they have nukes. In fact, I don't see much changing for them at all.

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Step 1 - Get Nukes
Step 2 - ????
Step 3 - profit

One thing I'm not clear on: how serious a threat does one ICBM with a single warhead actually represent? There's clearly no effective defence against a major "cold-war" style nuclear attack, but what technology is in place for destroying a single ICBM? I've read very contradictory views on this.

It's classified. We don't know. What we do know is that there is a system which is capable of intercepting these missiles. I believe it's a three-pronged approach. Short range anti-missile missiles near the launch point, sub-orbital intercepters in the middle, and short-range intercepters at the end. Here's the best graphic I could find quickly (I've seen better ones).

AS20170114002296_commL.jpg



The 3-pronged approach should tell you something about the statistics for each of the "prongs". Meaning, none of them are a slam dunk. The goal is to reduce the likelihood that the missile reaches its target, I don't think the tech exists to give super high confidence that it will be intercepted. Reasonable likelihood (like, >50%) is my impression of what we're considering good these days, but my impression of military technology viability isn't worth much.
 
We also have a floating barge called SBX-1 that's purpose is early detection of an IBCM launch. It tracks it and reports to missile defense systems like THAAD and Minuteman III. The Minuteman III has a pretty good track record lately. I think the last few mock interceptions were a success.
 
I think that's pretty much all we can do. I think his people might start to revolt when they realize food doesn't flood into the country the moment they have nukes. In fact, I don't see much changing for them at all.

Unfortunately, I don't think the NK people have much capability for independent thought. If they had, you would have expected to see the Kim Jong dynasty removed from power a long time ago. It is perhaps the most depressing part of this scenario, that the regime causing this international destabilization by pursuing nuclear technology is not only the most repressive in the world, but is also inept at providing the most basic quality of life for its own citizens.
 
Unfortunately, I don't think the NK people have much capability for independent thought. If they had, you would have expected to see the Kim Jong dynasty removed from power a long time ago. It is perhaps the most depressing part of this scenario, that the regime causing this international destabilization by pursuing nuclear technology is not only the most repressive in the world, but is also inept at providing the most basic quality of life for its own citizens.

I think part of what keeps them going is the promise of success once they turn this corner. Maybe I'm too optimistic.

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Let's say that the NK ICBM has like, an 80% chance of reaching its target and blowing up if left to its own devices. And let's say the US has a 60% chance of intercepting it (so 40% chance it makes it). That leaves us with a 32% chance overall that it reaches its target. The retaliatory response is 100%. I don't think there exists a scenario in which a NK nuke is launched against the US and at least one doesn't actually blow up at a target in NK.

That's a lot worse than the cold war scenario. Mutually assured destruction has been replaced with self-assured destruction and maybe some destruction on the other side. I'd hope that would be a sufficient deterrent to prevent rash actions.
 
Mutually assured destruction has been replaced with self-assured destruction and maybe some destruction on the other side. I'd hope that would be a sufficient deterrent to prevent rash actions.

This is why a careful line needs to be trodden - if Kim Jong Un feels that his life is threatened he's likely to use the country's arsenal to go out in a blaze of glory.
 
In the race between military action and diplomacy to solve the North Korean nuclear threat, diplomacy is lagging badly. In the event of war, "surgical strike" has been ruled out; it will be total destruction of the regime and all its atomic infrastructure. This will require invasion in addition to a truly massive bombardment. The warhawk Lindsey Graham, now a golfing partner of Trump, puts the chances of US attack rising to 70% should the Kim regime attempt even one more nuclear test.

^These are my takeaways from the article:
https://www.theatlantic.com/interna.../lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/
 
Unfortunately, I don't think the NK people have much capability for independent thought. If they had, you would have expected to see the Kim Jong dynasty removed from power a long time ago.

Perhaps. Or perhaps they're just as capable of critical thought as anyone else, and are well aware that the cure is likely to be worse than the disease in that situation. There's any number of countries that have descended into civil war and simply never really recovered, notwithstanding the likelihood that the moment KJU's power structure appears the country is likely to be overrun but South Korea and/or the US. They don't know how trustworthy either of those states are in terms of allowing the North Koreans to establish their own state, and neither do I.

This is why a careful line needs to be trodden - if Kim Jong Un feels that his life is threatened he's likely to use the country's arsenal to go out in a blaze of glory.

It's exactly why I think the aggressive US policy against NK is a mistake. It's obvious to NK and everyone else that the US is completely capable of reducing NK to a smouldering crater given appropriate provocation, and there's really nothing NK could do to prevent that even given a perfect first strike.

As such, there's really no value to antagonising NK. All it does is raise the risk that NK misreads the situation as one that is terminal for them regardless of any action they might take, and therefore decide to go out in a blaze of glory, as you say. I would hope that outcome is not what the US is after, but you never really know with Trump. He's decided to "solve" Israel by simply provoking the parties to action, even if that action is war. I wouldn't put it past him to "solve" North Korea by provoking them into action that would "justify" invasion and destruction of the state.
 
North Korean watch isn't missing a calendar functions, oh no, it's got polarizing health prisms fitted. Honest.
What I take from that story that Dennis Rodman sang Happy Birthday Mister President to the leader while wearing a skimpy dress and doing his best Marilyn Monroe impression. And that it wasn't even his birthday at the time.
 
It's rather like the British and German armies in Estonia, the troop placements are really about preventing Russian incursions (as he actually said), nothing to do with NK. Even Trump knows that NK isn't on the Norwegian border :D
Although, if they were, both NK AND Norway would be wondering how really useful the GPS the NK army is using at finding the enemy.
 
It's rather like the British and German armies in Estonia, the troop placements are really about preventing Russian incursions (as he actually said), nothing to do with NK. Even Trump knows that NK isn't on the Norwegian border :D
Ironically, Russia is the only country that separates Norway and North Korea... So there may be a point :D
 
"That city used to be ours. It was transferred in a secret deal to South Korea hours before this happened." - Kim, presumably.
 
Did you hear about the time that the US Air Force accidentally dropped two nukes on North Carolina? Three of the four arming mechanisms functioned on one of them, it was only one safety feature that stopped it actually detonating.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash

🤬 happens. Every nation with a military has incidents like this. There's a good one about how Arkansas nearly got destroyed by dropping a wrench on a nuclear missile.
 
The two Koreas may unite...over hockey.

North and South Korea want to field a joint women's hockey team at the Pyeongchang Olympics, and they have relayed their position to the International Olympic Committee, officials in Seoul said Monday. A joint team at the games in South Korea would require IOC approval. But if realized, it would be the Koreas' first unified Olympic team, leaving a major mark in their sports diplomacy that often mirrors their rocky political ties. South Korean sports ministry spokesman Hwang Seong Un said the two Koreas have been discussing the make-up of a unified women's hockey team since last year when the North's IOC representative, Chang Ung, visited South Korea along with his country's taekwondo demonstration team.
I for one hope this happens and I'd take time off work to watch a game with the Koreans in it. Hockey is huge in Canada but it's also played a significant role in shifting opinions in this country and opening our eyes towards our (then) communist enemies. The 1972 Summit Series began a long series of international matches between us and the Russians and then other communist countries over the years. The first series of 8 games was bitterly fought, and we barely won and had to come from behind in Russia to do it. Paul Henderson became a national hero and our position at the top of the hockey world was reaffirmed, but just barely. To give you an idea of how big this was in Canada, I was in grade 5 at the time and we watched the games in school!! It was the first satellite sporting broadcast in Canadian history I believe. Viewership was estimated at 16,000,000 in a nation of 22,000,000 !!! I still recall to this day the New Year's Eve game in 1975 between my beloved Montreal Canadians and the Moscow Red Army, our best club against their best club, head to head for one game. And what a game it was!! At the time I said it was the greatest game I'd ever seen and it still might be to this day. We outplayed them for three periods but they had Tretiak in goal, perhaps the greatest goalie that ever lived at that time and the best we could manage was a 3-3 tie.

By the time of that New Year's Game most of us had a begrudging respect for the Soviets and their hockey players. We no longer saw them as just mindless robots who won a bunch of medals in international hockey simply because we weren't there. They were good, very good, and our game changed and improved as a result. Hockey allowed ordinary Canadians to see that the Russians and all of the Eastern bloc nations were humans too, they weren't invincible and they could be beaten with our best. It's not a real battlefield obviously but it was highly symbolic and you could sense the change in Canadians on a one to one basis.

The Koreans will get trounced at the Olympics, probably losing games by double digits, but if they can come together over hockey, I think they'll earn the respect of their fellow hockey players Olympians in general, and the world. Hockey players are some of the nicest and most respectful athletes in the world and it's a great stage to begin the process of bring the two Koreas together again.
 
Surprised if the North Koreans could get along with the South Koreans with all the propaganda spreading around.
 
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