Polyphony Digital Has No Plans for a Gran Turismo 7

[Tired Tyres]

Considering their marketing has slogans like 7 to 77 and simulation not equals hard than why would casuals be turned off? because it's online mostly? nah

Where did I say physics? It is an online esport title. THAT is the hardcore element. You've applied the same logic yourself. Here.

It is a highly respectable franchise but only the hardcore JPRG fans buy it.

 

[ynot]

Yeah, no. That would be something like Catherine; well reviewed but super edgy in terms of content and audience. Persona 5 got the attention that any other reasonably popular game gets. Everything doesn't have to be GTA V to not be niche.



Would you hear about any game if you don't post on gaming forums? It was widely reviewed, praised, played on Youtube and Twitch, and so on. If you went to your local game shop, you could buy a copy. If you engaged with gaming media in any form, you had as good a chance of hearing about it as anything else.



2 million isn't my number. You said it was impossible. In fact, you said it was impossible for it to sell less than 6-7 million. I disagree. I think it's unlikely, but totally possible. We've seen games of similar type do numbers that are around the two million mark, sometimes despite having multi-platform releases. I think 6 million might be considered outrageous success in this climate, and that 2 million would be a disappointing possible side effect of them having ten years of relatively unpolished games in combination with extremely poor community interaction.

There's a lot of people gamers for whom their only interactions with the GT franchise are GT5 and 6. I question how attached those people are really going to be to the franchise. This isn't 2008, when we'd been getting solid GT iterations every few years. The genre is tired, the competitors many and the customers few. The only thing that will push GTS over two million is the brand name, and in the 13 years since GT4 they've done a lot of damage.

Maybe so but remember there will be a whole new batch of first time Gran Turismo customers. Many never had a PS3. The PS4 is their first console. 4 years since a GT title. A 10 year old is now 14. 4 years make a big difference at certain age groups. Gran Turismo has the easiest interface to learn. The tuning is not too complicated. Many never had a racing game before. I read somewhere that the Scapes section is so good that people who like to take car pictures would buy GTS just to print out car photos. They will have a large age group to sell too. I think GT Sport will do just fine. I still feel its the best racing game out there and I buy a lot of them to try and I still like Gran Turismo the best.

 

[ynot]

Where did I say physics? It is an online esport title. THAT is the hardcore element. You've applied the same logic yourself. Here.

It's not just about e-sports. I for one am not getting it for that. For me it's about running my club and racing with the same group of guys since GT5.

 

[sems4arsenal]

Seems disingenuous to say considering I started on the series at 4.

But that is getting way off topic considering this is about GT Sport, like everything else in this forum. It's probably going to break 2 million copies sold, but in a lot of ways, it could have a low ceiling of copies sold, or it could sell like gangbusters. Considering this game is very much online focused, one mistake at launch ala TDU2 and Driveclub means this game gets **** word of mouth, alongside middling or poor reviews, and a ceiling of 5 million copies could be possible.

It's also possible that with the amount of options that are present within the console market space for sims, means that cuts out of potential buyers. And that's the crux of the issue, no matter which street you are coming from: PD has a lot more competition then even what was present in 2013 when GT6 released. It remains to be seen whether this threat of competition has made PD more aggressive in making a better game then what GT5 and 6 were. Though considering everything that has been seen with regards to GTS, and reactions within this forum even, I'm not holding my breath.

I consider myself an avid gamer. I even tune to E3 conferences. The first time I even heard about Persona was some gaming podcast mentioning the vita version. So I still stand by my argument that it's a niche title. Your point about botching the online is very valid. But hopefully with the beta test they know what to do.

Dude, didn't you just suggest that someone only knows about a game because they're on gaming forums? How many potential GT Sport players have went online to watch Yamauchi-san interviews?

Honestly, the landscape is so much different from GT5's days that I can't see how anybody can say their high prediction is more likely than someone else's low one. I don't even want to hazard a guess: I can think of a few reasons as to why it might sell less than GT6, but I can also think of a bunch it might surpass it.

As others have said, the other big thing is the sheer number of racing games launching within a month of each other. That skews the whole thing: us racing game obsessives will buy as many as we can, but the person that only buys one a year or so is going to have a lot of choices. It might hurt all of them as opposed to if they were more spread out. Either way, I'm excited to watch it unfold.

They might affect each others sales (I still think GTS will affect the games on the PS4 rather than the other way around). But even still, eventually a lot of those who chose PCARS for example will eventually pick GTS I reckon.

Yeah, no. That would be something like Catherine; well reviewed but super edgy in terms of content and audience. Persona 5 got the attention that any other reasonably popular game gets. Everything doesn't have to be GTA V to not be niche.



Would you hear about any game if you don't post on gaming forums? It was widely reviewed, praised, played on Youtube and Twitch, and so on. If you went to your local game shop, you could buy a copy. If you engaged with gaming media in any form, you had as good a chance of hearing about it as anything else.



2 million isn't my number. You said it was impossible. In fact, you said it was impossible for it to sell less than 6-7 million. I disagree. I think it's unlikely, but totally possible. We've seen games of similar type do numbers that are around the two million mark, sometimes despite having multi-platform releases. I think 6 million might be considered outrageous success in this climate, and that 2 million would be a disappointing possible side effect of them having ten years of relatively unpolished games in combination with extremely poor community interaction.

There's a lot of people gamers for whom their only interactions with the GT franchise are GT5 and 6. I question how attached those people are really going to be to the franchise. This isn't 2008, when we'd been getting solid GT iterations every few years. The genre is tired, the competitors many and the customers few. The only thing that will push GTS over two million is the brand name, and in the 13 years since GT4 they've done a lot of damage.

The genre seems to be on the decline yes but quality racers (FH3 and DC for example) still sell decent numbers. I doubt SMS and Kunos are unhappy with the sales of their hardcore sims as well. Something like NFS ..... nah I'm not going to bother about that piece of garbage.

Outside of that, some here are really underestimating that it's a first party game and one of the best Sony IP. It will get marketed like crazy and will be bundled like crazy. It's going to have incredible legs.

@Tired Tyres It's online focused. You can easily ignore the competition part.

 

[Imari]

The genre seems to be on the decline yes but quality racers (FH3 and DC for example) still sell decent numbers.

Certainly, but we're talking 2-3 million here. Not 6+ million. If 2-3 million is decent numbers, then absolutely, but I thought that was exactly what you were arguing against. Still, it's a long way from where any Gran Turismo game has been before. And frankly, I think it'd be getting tough to fund a 200 person studio for four years on 3 million sales. Especially one that's flying around the world taking photos and throwing events on the scale of Copper Box.

I don't see how FH3 and DC justify 6+ million sales. Especially if FH3 is barely making half that over two platforms, and that as a critical darling. Where does the other half come from for GTS?

I doubt SMS and Kunos are unhappy with the sales of their hardcore sims as well.

Certainly they aren't, but if you're really comparing Kunos and AC to Polyphony and GTS in terms of sales and cost of development I think you've gone off the deep end. What makes a studio happy with their sales is entirely dependent on what a game cost to make. If I sell a thousand copies of a game at $30 each I'm ecstatic if that game only took me a day to make. I'm crushed if I had a team of thirty working on it for two years.

FYI, Kunos is still a very small studio. It's varied quite a lot during the development, Wikipedia says they're up to 30 now but I'm pretty sure it was under a dozen when they started. The level of success that they require is much lower than Polyphony with 200+ employees and a massive marketing budget to try and justify.

As far as SMS, they had a budget of $5 million. You tell me if you think you'd make a decent return selling two million copies of a game (over three platforms) that cost you $5 million.

Let's try and keep it sensible man. GT5 cost upwards of $60 million. The studio has gotten bigger since then, and GTS has taken a long time. It has almost certainly been an expensive game to make. Polyphony isn't even slightly in the same boat as SMS and Kunos, because SMS and Kunos had games that were designed to be niche and only needed limited sales to meet their goals. That they almost certainly exceeded those goals is a bonus. Polyphony doesn't have that luxury; they have a massive budget and they need the sales to justify that.

And unfortunately, it's entirely possible that the market just doesn't exist any more. Maybe it does. But you seem convinced that simply because the game has the name "Gran Turismo" on the front it can't possibly flop. You are wrong, and there's scores of market dominating companies stretching back into history that show that it can happen to just about anyone.

@Tired Tyres It's online focused. You can easily ignore the competition part.

How? That's the whole point, competing online. The game appears to have intentionally foregone a single player career mode in order to force people into racing online. You can avoid the FIA part, but you can't really avoid the competition part.

I suppose technically you could just run cruise lobbies and Arcade Mode, but at that point surely there are better games that you could buy.

 

[sems4arsenal]

@Imari I meant the FIA part indeed. FH3 also sold on a console with a significantly less install base than GTS (as did DC). PS4s are cheap now so by the time GTS releases it will have a roughly 70 million install base. The name sells alone but from what we've seen (and what I've played) the game addresses a lot of the criticisms of the series, so I don't see this reviewing badly at all.

I'm still not seeing why it won't sell the 6 million. But the 2 million being 'entirely possible' is what I disagree wholeheartedly with. 2 million would be a complete failure and a disaster to the series. It will also be so below the average for a mainline entry. So it is more like very very unlikely. I'm even trying to use the order 1886 sales (an atrocious game) but even that seems to have sold 1.7 million.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Certainly, but we're talking 2-3 million here. Not 6+ million. If 2-3 million is decent numbers, then absolutely, but I thought that was exactly what you were arguing against. Still, it's a long way from where any Gran Turismo game has been before. And frankly, I think it'd be getting tough to fund a 200 person studio for four years on 3 million sales. Especially one that's flying around the world taking photos and throwing events on the scale of Copper Box.

I don't see how FH3 and DC justify 6+ million sales. Especially if FH3 is barely making half that over two platforms, and that as a critical darling. Where does the other half come from for GTS?


Certainly they aren't, but if you're really comparing Kunos and AC to Polyphony and GTS in terms of sales and cost of development I think you've gone off the deep end. What makes a studio happy with their sales is entirely dependent on what a game cost to make. If I sell a thousand copies of a game at $30 each I'm ecstatic if that game only took me a day to make. I'm crushed if I had a team of thirty working on it for two years.

FYI, Kunos is still a very small studio. It's varied quite a lot during the development, Wikipedia says they're up to 30 now but I'm pretty sure it was under a dozen when they started. The level of success that they require is much lower than Polyphony with 200+ employees and a massive marketing budget to try and justify.

As far as SMS, they had a budget of $5 million. You tell me if you think you'd make a decent return selling two million copies of a game (over three platforms) that cost you $5 million.

Let's try and keep it sensible man. GT5 cost upwards of $60 million. The studio has gotten bigger since then, and GTS has taken a long time. It has almost certainly been an expensive game to make. Polyphony isn't even slightly in the same boat as SMS and Kunos, because SMS and Kunos had games that were designed to be niche and only needed limited sales to meet their goals. That they almost certainly exceeded those goals is a bonus. Polyphony doesn't have that luxury; they have a massive budget and they need the sales to justify that.

And unfortunately, it's entirely possible that the market just doesn't exist any more. Maybe it does. But you seem convinced that simply because the game has the name "Gran Turismo" on the front it can't possibly flop. You are wrong, and there's scores of market dominating companies stretching back into history that show that it can happen to just about anyone.



How? That's the whole point, competing online. The game appears to have intentionally foregone a single player career mode in order to force people into racing online. You can avoid the FIA part, but you can't really avoid the competition part.

I suppose technically you could just run cruise lobbies and Arcade Mode, but at that point surely there are better games that you could buy.

For the record, I'm sure you're aware (but others might not be) that the $60 million you mention for GT5 is from a quote Kaz made, 1 year before GT5 was released. This was in late 2009 when release of the game was imminent in Japan and coming soon to the rest of the world. As we all know, it didn't release for a year so I think it's safe to assume the budget was probably higher than $60 million. I think 110-130 employees was the figure usually used back then so the studio is somewhere between 50-80% larger and, with almost as long to develop GTSport, I think it's pretty safe to say it's at least $60 million to develop as well, and likely considerably more.

 

[Johnnypenso]

I'm trying to edit the above post to add more info but GTP won't let me NVM...my mistake

 

[cjr3559]

I predict PD is finished with numbering their game titles.

Didn't Kaz already say that GTS *is* GT7, by the fact that it's their seventh major release?

 

[Imari]

The name sells alone but from what we've seen (and what I've played) the game addresses a lot of the criticisms of the series, so I don't see this reviewing badly at all.

It also removes a lot of what were considered strengths of the series. Large car list. Modifications. Single player content.

Even if it comes out bug free, with all content in place and a solid 60fps, it's quite a narrow game with a number of direct competitors that offer similar but slightly different experiences. I expect it to be relatively well reviewed, it seems like a well made game that does what it attempts to do excellently. I also expect reviewers to identify that the things that it does only really appeal to a limited group of gamers, and that if you're considering buying such a game you should also probably be considering others depending on exactly what is most important to you in a racer.

Remember when Battlefield 1, Infinite Warfare and Titanfall 2 all came out within spitting distance of each other? That's kind of what I'm expecting. It's likely that GTS ends up as the BF1 of the bunch, but it's possible that it ends up as the Titanfall. Well made and well executed but overlooked because of market conditions and history.

I'm still not seeing why it won't sell the 6 million.

I know you don't. You don't even get that I'm not saying that it won't, I'm only saying that it might not.

You're unlikely ever to get it with Gran Turismo because of your emotional attachment. But one day you'll find a similar situation where you're not so emotionally attached, and maybe you'll be able to see the resemblances between that situation and this one.

For the record, I'm sure you're aware (but others might not be) that the $60 million you mention for GT5 is from a quote Kaz made, 1 year before GT5 was released. This was in late 2009 when release of the game was imminent in Japan and coming soon to the rest of the world. As we all know, it didn't release for a year so I think it's safe to assume the budget was probably higher than $60 million. I think 110-130 employees was the figure usually used back then so the studio is somewhere between 50-80% larger and, with almost as long to develop GTSport, I think it's pretty safe to say it's at least $60 million to develop as well, and likely considerably more.

Yeah. My usual estimate for GT5 is $80 million, but that's based on an educated guess. At the time it was one of the most expensive games ever made, until GTA V blew that out of the water. The only hard number that we have is that it was at least $60 million a year before release, and so when discussing it I tend to use that number. The difference is never enough to change the point that I'm making as it's almost always in relation to games with tiny budgets like AC and pCARS.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the budget for GTS was over $100 million. But it would disappoint me, because I think for the same money you could get five very good, very diverse racing games. Imagine if there was an online motorsports title (GTS), a single player caRPG title (GT7), and open world title (GT Horizon), a rally title (GT Rally), and Driveclub 2. #takemymoney

 

[sems4arsenal]

It also removes a lot of what were considered strengths of the series. Large car list. Modifications. Single player content.

Even if it comes out bug free, with all content in place and a solid 60fps, it's quite a narrow game with a number of direct competitors that offer similar but slightly different experiences. I expect it to be relatively well reviewed, it seems like a well made game that does what it attempts to do excellently. I also expect reviewers to identify that the things that it does only really appeal to a limited group of gamers, and that if you're considering buying such a game you should also probably be considering others depending on exactly what is most important to you in a racer.

Remember when Battlefield 1, Infinite Warfare and Titanfall 2 all came out within spitting distance of each other? That's kind of what I'm expecting. It's likely that GTS ends up as the BF1 of the bunch, but it's possible that it ends up as the Titanfall. Well made and well executed but overlooked because of market conditions and history.



I know you don't. You don't even get that I'm not saying that it won't, I'm only saying that it might not.

You're unlikely ever to get it with Gran Turismo because of your emotional attachment. But one day you'll find a similar situation where you're not so emotionally attached, and maybe you'll be able to see the resemblances between that situation and this one.

/QUOTE]

Yes and guess which one sold the most? that would be COD (despite BF1 and TF2 getting great reviews).

Don't get your emotional attachment comment. (is predicting high sales for a game considered fan boy-ism now )I'm basing my prediction on series sales history, install base, branding, etc.

 

[Jamaicangmah]

I think this is Marketing to
1. Keep the focus on their new yet UNRELEASED game. Thus maximizing interest in their property.
2. Kill any of the GT7 has been in development since 2017 talk that so many like to indulge in. So when they reveal it then it will be a fresh and less negativity.

I mean think about it if they have GT Sport on the way why even ask them about 7?

 

[McLaren]

I'll just keep the personal snipes aside, not lowering myself to that kind of behaviour. I was only replying to the guy who replied to you. My point is that cars in a full game are not exactly cheaper than 1 EUR like he said because you kinda payed for them in previous iterations of that game as well. So if anything I was just supporting your case that 1 EUR per car as DLC price is a fair deal...

This argument only works if you're a repeat buyer.

For someone who never played a past game, the car we all "repaid" for is entirely new to them.

 

[Imari]

Is predicting high sales for a game considered fan boy-ism now

No, but refusing to consider the possibility of lower sales is.

 

[sems4arsenal]

No, but refusing to consider the possibility of lower sales is.

By that logic, I'm a fanboy of Zelda, COD WWII, BF2, Super Mario Odyssey, Forza 7, Destiny 2, Red Dead 2 ........ and every other big AAA ip out there.

 

[ImaRobot]

By that logic, I'm a fanboy of Zelda, COD WWII, BF2, Super Mario Odyssey, Forza 7, Destiny 2, Red Dead 2 ........ and every other big AAA ip out there.

By what logic, because I'm not seeing any correlation there.

 

[Silver Arrows]

By what logic, because I'm not seeing any correlation there.

I wouldn't bother. Sems is pretty much out to lunch in regards to sales numbers for GT Sport. It could hit 6 million, but it also could be a terrible game that gets poor reviews, or as Imari said, could be a repeat of last year's FPS bonanza where one title (Titanfall 2, possibly GTS) is the odd man out.

There's simply too many variables in play when it comes to sales. That doesn't even bring into question that even with GTS packaged in new PS4's, and the pedigree the series still has, again, comes to naught when most casual players realize it's an online focused experience and not the spanning career mode and car lists they expect in a GT game. And that doesn't include as well the online mode not standing up to the massive crush of people trying to get into it, and we have a DRIVECLUB/TDU2 situation, which can color people's perception of the game early, and leave it dead in the water.

(EDIT: 1000 posts! Whoopee!)

 

[sems4arsenal]

By what logic, because I'm not seeing any correlation there.

All of these games are also titles that I don't think is possible for any of them to have low sales.

I wouldn't bother. Sems is pretty much out to lunch in regards to sales numbers for GT Sport. It could hit 6 million, but it also could be a terrible game that gets poor reviews, or as Imari said, could be a repeat of last year's FPS bonanza where one title (Titanfall 2, possibly GTS) is the odd man out.

There's simply too many variables in play when it comes to sales. That doesn't even bring into question that even with GTS packaged in new PS4's, and the pedigree the series still has, again, comes to naught when most casual players realize it's an online focused experience and not the spanning career mode and car lists they expect in a GT game. And that doesn't include as well the online mode not standing up to the massive crush of people trying to get into it, and we have a DRIVECLUB/TDU2 situation, which can color people's perception of the game early, and leave it dead in the water.

(EDIT: 1000 posts! Whoopee!)

I've responded to each and everyone of these "variables" but feel free to repeat them. Your argument would work if Titanfall outsold the big ip (COD and BF). It didn't despite the fantastic reviews.

This isn't a 50-50 case of the game selling well or not.

 

[ImaRobot]

All of these games are also titles that I don't think is possible for any of them to have low sales.

All of those titles haven't changed as drastically to something so different compared to it's past, or had as much issues with releasing games not only in a timely manner, or on time. I don't think they're in the same category as those games. That's why I see no correlation.

 

[Tired Tyres]

All of these games are also titles that I don't think is possible for any of them to have low sales.

Most of which don't seem have offended their existing player base by disregarding what attracted their players in the first place.

Your faith in the success of GTS does not take into account the negative responses to GT5 and especially GT6.

 

[sems4arsenal]

All of those titles haven't changed as drastically to something so different compared to it's past, or had as much issues with releasing games not only in a timely manner, or on time. I don't think they're in the same category as those games. That's why I see no correlation.

Battlefront 1 was always online and it sold like hotcakes. I don't see the delays affection sales much mind.

Most of which don't seem have offended their existing player base by disregarding what attracted their players in the first place.

Your faith in the success of GTS does not take into account the negative responses to GT5 and especially GT6.

Strong words. GTSport seems so different to GT5 and GT6 that the respnoses will matter in a smaller manner. I don't see that argument being used against PCARS 2 when the original turned off a lot of people (including me).

 

[Northstar]

Battlefront 1 was always online and it sold like hotcakes. I don't see the delays affection sales much mind.

It's also a FPS tied to one of the biggest movie franchises of all time, which happened to be releasing a new film roughly a month after the game released.

Also, BF2 will supposedly have a large offline campaign as that was one of the major complaints about the first one.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

I got pCARS, Assetto Corsa day 1 - next time I'm waiting on those titles from few weeks to few months... But GTS still getting day one with same confidence as ever. Why? Quite possibly some other members might tell me

But I always loved when PD was doing any changes! Loved their changes every time practicaly. Only frustration was how they never dared to be completely brave... until now:tup:

From me PD has earned trust that whenever they bring changes I am very interested to check those changes out. Everything else is boring, old game that is finaly getting it's deserved viking funeral!

Burn it, Kaz! Burn it, burn it. I think bigger quantity of players would be critiquing right now if all we/they got was just same old. And that kind of meme would bring game down much more. Deservedly so!

 

[sems4arsenal]

It's also a FPS tied to one of the biggest movie franchises of all time, which happened to be releasing a new film roughly a month after the game released.

Also, BF2 will supposedly have a large offline campaign as that was one of the major complaints about the first one.

Exactly. Brand awareness. Not saying Gran Turismo is anywhere near a brand as Star Wars, but you see my point.

It's a lot like FIFA and PES now. PES arguably has become the better game, it still doesn't sell remotely close to FIFA.

 

[Lawndart]

Of course not, each time on the eve of a GT launch, this question is asked and it's always the same; no plans. Good, it means we are focused on this, not that, yet.

 

[Castrol96]

Kaz normally changes his plans but this is odd.

 

[Quakebass]

I definitely remember Kaz talking about future games shortly after and at (and I think even before) the launches of GT5 and 6. These newer statements give me a little bit of hope, especially with the numerous statements on DLC - I have reason to believe PD will be trying to put a lot more effort into doing a better job with post-launch support this time around. Though, this "better job" is a bit nebulous since the past attempts weren't very strong.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Battlefront 1 was always online and it sold like hotcakes. I don't see the delays affection sales much mind.

I bought Battlefront 1 during a sale (£11.99) I did not play with or against anyone online at all. I just played the one player section.

I've sunk the largest number of hours of any game I own on PS4 into Destiny. In excess of 99% of that time is solo. The developer of Destiny are consentrating on story mode for Destiny 2. What does that tell you?

 

[Earth]

In an online shooter if you lose (die) you respawn in 10 seconds or less and are back playing again. Half the players are part of the winning team.

In an online racer if you lose (spin, crash) its 5+ minutes (or worse) before you can start another race. Only one player wins.

Online racing is far less forgiving then an online FPS. Casuals will not like it as much, especially with a safety rating punishing them.

 

[ZEROTHEKNIGHT]

In an online shooter if you lose (die) you respawn in 10 seconds or less and are back playing again. Half the players are part of the winning team.

In an online racer if you lose (spin, crash) its 5+ minutes (or worse) before you can start another race. Only one player wins.

Online racing is far less forgiving then an online FPS. Casuals will not like it as much, especially with a safety rating punishing them.

Unless you enable ( boost ) or ( catching-up mode ) which really helps those who lose like 10 secs of their time X)
It also depends on the race length
Also there can be a fan-made or official point system for teams in racing games like Ridge Racer 7 for example