Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Thread starter Rage Racer
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Clinton Ducks
Your enemy is a regime that uses conscripts.
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Complicated story. There are contractors, mercs, volunteers, mobilized. Conscripts, technically don't participate in main events, but dieing regularly as part of border guard. Also, conscript could be recruited as contractor, sometimes under pressure. There are cases when pressure was lethal.

Mobilization still going, but in very low numbers. Hundreds monthly+ 300.000 in November 2022 + ex-ukranians. Unclear how many still at frontline.

Another factor that anyone should keep in mind is that you can't leave frontline since mobilization was started. You could be contractor that defending oil depot in Siberia in 2022 and in 2023/24 you can't say nothing about relocation at frontline.

Don't think that its correct to dehumanise RUAF. Situation drastically changed since 2022. Massive war crimes commited by ЗСУ in 2024 didn't help, either.
 
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Russia: 818 days into a 3 day "special peacekeeping trip"
Also Russia: Let's try some possible funny business with Finland

 
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unit-one
Special Cartographic Operation

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These provocations are most likely made in cooperation with China. Both countries' borders combined are vast, by far the longest on the planet it, much of it basically inaccessible. They're trying to provoke NATO and especially the US to see how dedicated we are to defending border areas that are of minute importance (literally every inch is equally important, in theory), or if we'll defend the borders of other nations who are incapable of self defense (South China Sea). Note that China is also doing this with India and Bhutan and have been doing that for a decade already, and India has not come to Bhutan's defense.

The only way to stop this is war, and by that I mean I good old fashioned humiliation which will cost hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars, and nobody on the planet is ready for that.
 
Obviously there have been other high-profile attacks presumed to be conducted by Russia, though apparently evidence isn't hard enough to do anything. Plus, actually doing anything isn't a popular position at the moment. Frankly I don't think any of our NATO countries are ready to act in a clear and decisive manner although you can assume the US is constantly working on battle plans day to day.

This instance will require more investigation as well. Doubtful that anything will be able to be linked directly to the Russian government.



Secretary of Defence Blinken is urging Biden to lift restrictions on using American weapons to attack targets on Russian soil, and a US congressman used ISW map data to illustrate the point to Congress.





Note that this congressman is using "public" data compiled by a private entity and it was presented on a public TV broadcast. Who knows what other info our intelligence community is gathering but honestly these days almost any observable surface-level "intel" becomes public before any classified agency has time to even study it, what with privately owned satellites and cameras etc.

We all already know it but data shows how big the problem is of China/Chinese companies funding Russia's war effort. The shift away from expensive domestic technology and weapons to inexpensive consumer-level technology allows Chinese industry to keep pumping out useful products at an immense pace.



This war won't end until Turkey finished that god damned canal and America sends a fleet into the Black Sea.



At that point, apologies to any members who live in Russia and will or are suffering from this, but if Turkey and the UN agree that the Instanbul Canal is not governed by the Montreux Convention, and if the US Navy takes advantage of that, Russian defense and military industries would come under the barrage of thousands of long-range weapons within days and come to a screeching halt. If the US is bold enough to send a carrier, they'd conduct SEAD missions with brutal effectiveness, eliminating Russian air defense and warning capability.

But the canal doesn't exist yet, and NATO is going to do everything possible to not get directly involved.
 
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Keef
We all already know it but data shows how big the problem is of China/Chinese companies funding Russia's war effort.
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Russia doesn't produce anything for civilian market in notable quantity. 99% of this export into Russia is for civilian use. Military tech is coming directly from Iran and N.Korea via railroad and ships. Those suits better think how US made chips find there way into newest ballistic missiles.
 
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inCloud
Russia doesn't produce anything for civilian market in notable quantity. 99% of this export into Russia is for civilian use. Military tech is coming directly from Iran and N.Korea via railroad and ships. Those suits better think how US made chips find there way into newest ballistic missiles.
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So you're saying that Russian industry is all producing wartime materiel, thus requiring a huge spike in Chinese civilian goods?
 
Keef
Russian industry is all producing wartime materiel
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I really struggle to remember anything other than food, paper and furniture that is made in Russia for civilian market. Russian industry producing materials, oil products and services + war related goods. Chains of supplies are broken and almost all civilian market goods assemblies are dead.
 
inCloud
I really struggle to remember anything other than food, paper and furniture that is made in Russia for civilian market. Russian industry producing materials, oil products and services + war related goods. Chains of supplies are broken and almost all civilian market goods assemblies are dead.
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Russia likely imports products because they're cheaper. If Russia truly wanted to, they could definitely be self-sufficient as they have way more resources than any other country. If you were a country in a war, most people would probably import cheaper items from abroad so they could focus on the war-effort.
 
Aaronhuang
they could definitely be self-sufficient
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Doubtful. We were part of global World for 30 years, its impossible to even resurrect USSR level of production. Tech, specialists, facilities aren't here. And China wouldn't provide those to us.
 
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inCloud
Doubtful. We were part of global World for 30 years, its impossible to even resurrect USSR level of production. Tech, specialists, facilities aren't here. And China wouldn't provide those to us.
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Russia obviously wouldn't be on the same level of technology and innovation if other countries didn't export goods into Russia. But it's fair to say Russia wouldn't just collapse and become a pile of rubble if everyone stopped their exports. One of the best things for economies in the world is globalization and if countries didn't trade with each other we would be a lot worse off, but countries can still be sufficient without others. For example, the US imports oil and other goods despite being able to make them at home, because they're cheaper being made abroad. Another example is Russia's cars. Russia can make it's own cars but they recently have been importing cars from China because they are cheaper and equally as good as Russian cars. If China stopped exporting cars to Russia, would that mean nobody in Russia would make cars? No, it would just mean that Russians would allocate resources and energy to making cars because there would be a "vacuum" in the market where there would be no competition; albeit Russians would get (in theory) worse and more expensive cars.

The USSR's economy was regulated by the government so they "HAD" to make their own (at least until they had to start importing wheat). Now, they don't have to make their own because Russia's trade is more open as compared to way back then.

Note: I am not justifying Putin's actions, I am simply stating that Russia is self-sufficient.
 
Aaronhuang
But it's fair to say Russia wouldn't just collapse and become a pile of rubble if everyone stopped their exports.
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We don't have our own modern semiconductor production even on USSR level. If we are cut from China - whole IT infrastructure would totally collapse in few years. That's biggest problem, that simply doesn't have solution.

Everything else that could be produced in RF is made from Chinese parts to a degree. And we don't have our own replacement for them.
 
Keef
The only way to stop this is war, and by that I mean I good old fashioned humiliation which will cost hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars, and nobody on the planet is ready for that.
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Well, all the parties involved could come to a mutually acceptable agreement in which they split the resources in a fair manner, but nobody wants to do that. They all think that they personally deserve the biggest piece of the pie, and that if push comes to shove that they'll come out on top. Dick waving at it's finest.

And they're mostly right, because the people in power aren't the ones that will be going to war. They'll be sitting at home watching other people die, while they dive into Scrooge McDuck pools of defence manufacturing profits. They win no matter what happens.
 
The Russian over-the-horizon early warning radar station "Voronezh-DM" in the Krasnodar Krai was damaged as a result of an attack by Ukrainian drones. The attack occurred on the morning of May 23, 2024. This is 500 km from the front line.

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Blitz24
Did it warn about the drones before it was damaged
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Its over-the-horizon station, it shouldn't see targets nearby. Not sure if it see targets that fly lower than planes.

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Number of people that need wheelchairs or prosthetic implants of lower limbs, official info from RF ministry.
 
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inCloud
We don't have our own modern semiconductor production even on USSR level. If we are cut from China - whole IT infrastructure would totally collapse in few years. That's biggest problem, that simply doesn't have solution.

Everything else that could be produced in RF is made from Chinese parts to a degree. And we don't have our own replacement for them.
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Either way, I think we can agree if they didn't have as many imports it would definitely slow down their production. I still personally think they would be fine. Anyways...

I'm interested, what part of the RF are you from?
 
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