After reading this thread I decided to put some of the suggestions to the test, specifically the one about going sub max through the first checkpoint. I've now logged over 1,000 miles on this event and come away with a few observations.
First, I don't see any evidence to support the idea that going 3/4 speed for the first stage allows for more cars to be overtaken over the rest of the race. There ARE times where it would SEEM that this is true, but repeated testing of the theory proves that it just simply is not a given.
For quite awhile I was convinced that car distribution and patterns was all completely random. But as I continued to log miles and keep notes, I no longer think that it is just random. I think they've done something clever to make it appear as random.
My conviction now is that there are maybe 10-15 "scenarios" for each leg of the race. Many of these scenarios alter just a bit. Just enough that a half second difference in arrival time at any given point will make it seemingly significantly different (and thus purely random) when it really isn't. But if you start to recognize these "scenarios" then you can prepare your line much better, keep an higher speed, and avoid sudden collisions. (Most of the time!)
Now I haven't tried to get an accurate count of just how many "scenarios" there might be in each leg. But if we assume that there were ten for each leg and we multiply that by as many legs there are in the race, that results in quite a massive number of possibilities to encounter during the course of an entire race. Certainly enough to make everything SEEM purely random.
It also means one very important thing. Given that there are certain "scenarios" within each leg whereby the cars bunch up and deliberately slow your pace, I am convinced that the very best scores logged for this event are at least in some part due to a fortunate series of low AI interaction over the course of the entire race. This is NOT to say that anyone with 2million or higher score is a "Lucky" driver. Obviously you have to be skilled to score that high. It only means that those really high scores have more favorable conditions throughout the entire lap. I am perfectly willing to admit that my own high scores are from races where it seemed "easier" than other races. Sure, I was feeling good and on my game, but there were certainly fewer distractions as well. The key point here is that, don't assume that a crappy start to the race will mean the whole thing is a dung heap. I've had races where I was super pissed after stages 1 and 2 only to find that I had made up ALL of the time by stage 4.
I am now convinced that the total number of cars available for overtake is at least 50% random. While it is true that the faster you go the more cars you will encounter I also believe it to be true that there are certain combinations of "scenarios" that simply yield different amounts of overtake opportunities.
Note: There are certain cars that can give you an idea early about how many you might encounter. The 365 GTB, the McLaren, the Rocket are all good examples. Each of those three cars can appear either very early in their respective leg or quite late. And they will do it REGARDLESS of whether you are going balls out or carefully controlled pace. If you see any of these cars very early within their respective stage you will likely find more cars near the final stages to add overtake points with.
Other cars to be aware of are any of the Nissan GT-R cars. There is one for almost every leg of the race. And they are all the "rabbits" of their respective legs. They are the fastest car of each leg but if you manage to pass them early, they won't chase. If you don't pass them early it's pretty safe to follow them as they will have the best line and certainly be the fastest in the vicinity. These cars are also the ones who will be mostly likely to cross checkpoints. The vast majority of cars in this event will confined within the same stage every time. The exceptions to this are ALL of the GT-Rs and a few others. (Such as the McLaren)
One final and very important observation. I have noticed that there can be a difference between the overall clock and the countdown clock for each stage. I find it extremely frustrating, but there doesn't seem to be anything that one can do. Sometimes you just get a crappy clock. There are certain times where I don't get awarded the overtake points and thus the extra time added. And I know it's not me and my driving. Because, while I know that I can't can't go through checkpoints with exacting consistency each time I race, I also know that I am not as much as 17 whole seconds different each time I race either, which is how much different the countdown clock sometimes reads as I go through the checkpoint just prior to the uphill switchbacks. I have seen it read that much different on runs whereby I was doing nearly identical overall time checks. Depending on your skill level, this MIGHT have Gold run implications. I'm mostly frustrated with it when I'm going for a new personal high score and I'm really "Feeling" it only to see that I'm missing about 10 seconds of extra countdown time as I go through a checkpoint. So, again, sometimes a low score is just unlucky. And most high scores are at least somewhat part of good luck.
Final thought: I think it's absolutely retarded that the AI can wreck a perfect run by colliding with me FROM BEHIND!!! They can be as squirrelly as they want to be so long as I can see them in front of me. As far as I'm concerned, it's all skill on my part in avoiding them. But taking me out from behind is total BS and a serious flaw in this event!!