Ardius
... but it doesn't seem to be too difficult for a decent driver to break into the top 10 regularly even in the under-resourced teams.
Could the reason for this be how similar the cars are? Of course the big teams will always have something of an advantage in development of the cars, but Indycar is still very close to being a spec series, so driver talent can still shine through, to an extent.
Ardius
Beating drivers like Franchitti and Power isn't going to be a walk-over! Kanaan even is going to be one of Rubens' tougher teammates.
Also Rubens has never driven ovals - while this is by no means a barrier to a great debut (Mansell, Wheldon, etc style) it makes it difficult to predict if he can win overall.
Franchitti, Castroneves, Kanaan, etc are all well out of their prime, but so is Reubens. In fact, in terms of driver talent, I have never seen Indycar so weak since I began following it. Through the years there was always a new fast young guy appearing every couple of years, dominating and winning races and championships. Now its a series full of, this may be harsh, washed up has been drivers in their late 30s.
Indycar's decline has alot to do with this, as showcased by young talent like AJ Allmendinger choosing to leave Indycar after winning 5 Champ Car races in 2006 to seek out the much greener pastures of NASCAR.
As for the ovals, they shouldn't be too much of a learning curve with the cars they are driving. The only way to make them a challenge on the ovals is to add 250 horsepower and take away downforce, to make them something like how they were in the early 90s, but that wont be happening anytime soon.
Ardius
I'd say it would have to be one hell of a season for Rubens to win and it wouldn't really flatter the quality of the Indycar field to have one ex-F1 driver to simply jump in and beat them all on debut. Though CART didn't seem to suffer from Mansell doing just that, perhaps many of us in Europe felt it confirmed those suspicions.
Well, Mansell did not jump into a midpack car like Barrichello will. Mansell inherited a car Michael Andretti developed and drove to 5 wins and 7 poles the year before. Nigel Mansell matched Andretti with 5 wins and 8 poles.
And you have to remember Mansell's disastrous 1994 Indycar season in which Al Unser Jr powered by the Penske PC-23 destroyed Nigel's Newman Haas team and the rest of the field. It goes to show how quickly the tables can be turned.
Also, didn't Indycar graduate Jacques Villeneuve nearly conquer Formula 1 upon his debut in 1996, then succeed in 1997? It has happened the other way around.
But I am a realist and do accept Formula 1 has always had a higher caliber of drivers. After all, they scout the entire world for talent, but Indycar has for the most part only had drivers from North and South America.
Ardius
I reckon Rubens is going to have a solid year with some drama. He might sneak a lucky win but I don't expect him to win any races under normal conditions.
He may need some nutrition to win a race, but I agree, its very possible