Erdogan the Dictator.

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One of the prisms through which to view the Mideast confusion is the Sunni/Shia conflict. This places the Sunni majority against the Shia minority, which is mainly Iran and Syria.
Turkey isn't Saudi Arabia, going by history they are more concerned with particular Racial groups then Religious differences, as basically every bordering country has a different religion to them.

Given that one of Turkey's biggest allies is Azerbaijan with a majority Shia population but a majority of people makeup being Azeri Turk, it makes sense.
 
Turkey isn't Saudi Arabia, going by history they are more concerned with particular Racial groups then Religious differences, as basically every bordering country has a different religion to them.

Given that one of Turkey's biggest allies is Azerbaijan with a majority Shia population but a majority of people makeup being Azeri Turk, it makes sense.

The whole Shia Sunni rumor never makes sense to me, I see alot of Turks hate Arabs over Nationalism or unknown reasons but get along well other religious differences groups.
 
One of the prisms through which to view the Mideast confusion is the Sunni/Shia conflict. This places the Sunni majority against the Shia minority, which is mainly Iran and Syria.

I don't believe in the whole Shia Sunni conflict reason for Turkey. What they actually do seems to mostly be kept secret but gets exposed.
 
Has anyone read the letter Trump sent to Erdogan? Erdogan is said to have simply thrown it in the bin.

What an absolute joke of a world we live in.

r
 
I thought Turkey was untouchable due to its perfect Geo political location and all given they basically control Russia's ability to use their Navy at their only warm Water ports.

No doubt any kind of Sanctions will basically give Turkey Hyper inflation though, as when the US put minor sanctions on Metal exports on Turkey their currency inflated big time, so Turkey has no doubt more to lose in this.

Erdogan has a choice suppressing the Kurds at the expense of the Turkish Economy or negotiating a way to get all the sanctions he currently has already off their economy by withdrawing.

I expect given his overt Nationalism he is probably going to lead a sinking ship though as any withdrawal will make him look weak and that is the worst crime a Nationalist Strongman can ever allow happen.

Look at this chart of Turkish inflation when the US put just Minor sanctions on one section of the economy:
images (57).jpeg

It since recovered when the US halved the Sanctions but it shows how powerful these sanctions can be.
 
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Has anyone read the letter Trump sent to Erdogan? Erdogan is said to have simply thrown it in the bin.

What an absolute joke of a world we live in.

r

Trump probably thought it was immensely profound and would one day be displayed in museums. The latter might be true...but not for the reasons he thinks.

@mustafur I'll believe the sanctions when I see them. Surely they won't be as comprehensive, if they materialize at all, as those on Iran...and Iran is still functioning. More broadly though, the more liberally Trump uses unilateral sanctions as his only tool of diplomacy (you know instead of coalition building and multilateral agreements with some teeth) the more I see it is likely that effective sanction avoidance measures will be developed. INSTEX may just be the start, especially as cryptocurrencies are achieving widespread adoption. Iran, Turkey, China, and Russia may finally be able to kill the US Dollar's hegemony by outplaying the infantile Donald Trump. Wouldn't that be a spectacular own-goal?
 
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Trump probably thought it was immensely profound and would one day be displayed in museums. The latter might be true...but not for the reasons he thinks.

@mustafur I'll believe the sanctions when I see them. Surely they won't be as comprehensive, if they materialize at all, as those on Iran...and Iran is still functioning. More broadly though, the more liberally Trump uses unilateral sanctions as his only tool of diplomacy (you know instead of coalition building and multilateral agreements with some teeth) the more I see it is likely that effective sanction avoidance measures will be developed. INSTEX may just be the start, especially as cryptocurrencies are achieving widespread adoption. Iran, Turkey, China, and Russia may finally be able to kill the US Dollar's hegemony by outplaying the infantile Donald Trump. Wouldn't that be a spectacular own-goal?
Iran may be functioning but their inflation is much worse and it's hurting their economy big time.
images (58).jpeg


As for the US dollar losing it's reserve status, well I have actually put a huge chunk of my own money riding on that happening lol.
 
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Iran may be functioning but their inflation is much worse and it's hurting their economy big time.
View attachment 858279

That's not surprising. My post was more to the effect of: I'm skeptical a government controlled by Donald Trump will really challenge Turkey in a meaningful way and that our use/threat of sanctions doesn't seem to have much of a deterring effect any longer...if it ever did. Erdogan seems to have Trump by the hotel lobby, or something. We get essentially nothing by withdrawing from northern Syria, but Turkey gets quite a bit. It makes me wonder why Trump would do it.
 
That's not surprising. My post was more to the effect of: I'm skeptical a government controlled by Donald Trump will really challenge Turkey in a meaningful way and that our use/threat of sanctions doesn't seem to have much of a deterring effect any longer...if it ever did. Erdogan seems to have Trump by the hotel lobby, or something. We get essentially nothing by withdrawing from northern Syria, but Turkey gets quite a bit. It makes me wonder why Trump would do it.
Turkey has alot of power in this, Europe don't want Millions of Refugees to be dumped on them as Turkey has threatened this already and with Turkey being in the most important part of the world the effect of what US could actually do is limited unless they are happy to lose them as allies, don't be mistaken though if America wants to they can easily destroy the Turkish Economy but it will probably cost America everything, as Europe will not be happy about it, and neither will the US be when Turkey will likely Join the China Sphere.
 
Turkey has alot of power in this, Europe don't want Millions of Refugees to be dumped on them as Turkey has threatened this already and with Turkey being in the most important part of the world the effect of what US could actually do is limited unless they are happy to lose them as allies, don't be mistaken though if America wants to they can easily destroy the Turkish Economy but it will probably cost America everything, as Europe will not be happy about it, and neither will the US be when Turkey will likely Join the China Sphere.

Destroy is a relative word here, in my opinion. The US has done basically everything possible to "destroy" Iran's economy....but Iran still has 'an' economy and somewhat reasonable consumer activity. I know this is highly anecdotal and of narrow focus, but watch this from a few weeks ago:



That amount of activity doesn't look like a destroyed economy. (I fully grant that this is Tehran, and one of the most commercially active parts of Tehran...but still) Looks healthier than Venezuela in any case. Turkey would stand a much better chance than Iran, as they are not nearly as isolated - and there's no way Trump would institute sanctions on Turkey as crushing as those on Iran. I also don't think China or Russia (not to mention other middle eastern & Balkan countries) would stop trading with Turkey, no matter what the US says. I think Ergodan sees the US threats as hollow. The US could absolutely do damage to the Turkish economy...but destroy is hyperbole, in my opinion.

I don't think we disagree overall...just on specifics. :lol:
 
Destroy is a relative word here, in my opinion. The US has done basically everything possible to "destroy" Iran's economy....but Iran still has 'an' economy and somewhat reasonable consumer activity. I know this is highly anecdotal and of narrow focus, but watch this from a few weeks ago:



That amount of activity doesn't look like a destroyed economy. (I fully grant that this is Tehran, and one of the most commercially active parts of Tehran...but still) Looks healthier than Venezuela in any case. Turkey would stand a much better chance than Iran, as they are not nearly as isolated - and there's no way Trump would institute sanctions on Turkey as crushing as those on Iran. I also don't think China or Russia (not to mention other middle eastern & Balkan countries) would stop trading with Turkey, no matter what the US says. I think Ergodan sees the US threats as hollow. The US could absolutely do damage to the Turkish economy...but destroy is hyperbole, in my opinion.

I don't think we disagree overall...just on specifics. :lol:

No I mean what I mean, Iran has a very insular economy to begin with, Turkey doesn't it buys alot of goods not made in Turkey, can't use the same standard for every country.

For example if Australia suddenly got sanctions(probably would never happen but still) we would be in a worse situation then Venezuela because next to none of the consumable items in this country are made in Australia and everything is imported, if we had our ability to get things limited in any way, we would struggle massively.

Inflation destroys the lower classes, as all savings get instantly evaporated and the only people with any kind of wealth are those that own property or the like.

If you want to see what sanctions have done to Iran, watch the Indigo traveler on YouTube on his trips to Iran, he goes to nearly all the major parts of the Country and inflation has certainly been a big issue(this was only a few months ago).
 
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Rand Paul has suggested the Kurds are better off aligned with Assad than us. I agree.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) defended President Trump's decision to withdraw troops from Syria, saying that the Kurds would be better off aligned with Syrian leader Bashar Assad.

“The Kurds are going to better aligned with Assad because they frankly need a Syrian sponsor,” Paul, told Hill.TV during an interview that aired on Thursday.

Paul, seen as an outsider among Republicans on foreign policy, has been a staunch defender of Trump's decision to pullout from Syria.

Paul said the U.S. never intended to stay in Syria in the first place.

“We were never staying there — the president never promised to stay there, he said we’re going to wipe out ISIS, we did,” he said.

Trump’s decision to pull troops out of northern Syria earlier this month has garnered criticism from even his most loyal allies, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) who have both called the decision a mistake.

But Trump has stood by his decision, saying he was bringing U.S. troops home from endless wars.

"Lindsey Graham would like to stay in the Middle East for the next thousand years with thousands of soldiers and fighting other people's wars. I want to get out of the Middle East,” Trump said at a joint press conference with the Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Wednesday.

The House, meanwhile, overwhelming passed a resolution on Wednesday rebuking Trump’s decision and calling on Turkey to stop military action.

Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops opened the door for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to begin an invasion in Syria targeting U.S.-allied Kurdish forces, who are considered a key partner in the fight against ISIS. Ankara though considers the Kurdish forces to be a terrorist group because of their ties to a Kurdish insurgency in Turkey.

Trump later imposed economic sanctions on Turkey over the move and Congress is moving to impose additional sanctions.

Abandoned by U.S. troops, the Kurds have since struck a deal with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to deploy Syrian troops near the border to deter Turkey’s incursion, marking a major shift in the country's ongoing civil war.

Despite the escalation, Paul maintained that there is still hope for the Kurds, suggesting that Erdoğan and Assad could reach a deal that would give them some autonomy.

“There is a chance that Assad and Erdoğan — if Assad will guarantee his side of the border — that there could be a retreat of Turkey back within its borders and you actually could maybe set up something where the Kurds actually get some provincial or semi-autonomous control,” he told Hill.TV.

—Tess Bonn
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/466257-rand-paul-kurds-are-better-off-with-al-assad
 
Many sides were fighting ISIS. Crying about the Kurds being abandonned while and them being owed for fighting ISIS seems strange to me. The Syrian people were abandonned while they were succesfully destroying ISIS and getting there country back. They were bombed by the US and Israel while they were defeating ISIS.
I don't feel any pity for the Kurds being stopped in their land grab attempt and trying to create their etno-state. Ask the Christians in these regions how they like these Kurds.. The Irony in all this is that Assad warned the Kurds that the Kurds would be abandonned when they no longer serve a purpouse to the US.
My bad, I was under the impression that they were Syrians and some of them were Christians. Is this not the case after all?
 
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I thought Turkey was untouchable due to its perfect Geo political location and all given they basically control Russia's ability to use their Navy at their only warm Water ports.

No doubt any kind of Sanctions will basically give Turkey Hyper inflation though, as when the US put minor sanctions on Metal exports on Turkey their currency inflated big time, so Turkey has no doubt more to lose in this.

Erdogan has a choice suppressing the Kurds at the expense of the Turkish Economy or negotiating a way to get all the sanctions he currently has already off their economy by withdrawing.

I expect given his overt Nationalism he is probably going to lead a sinking ship though as any withdrawal will make him look weak and that is the worst crime a Nationalist Strongman can ever allow happen.

Look at this chart of Turkish inflation when the US put just Minor sanctions on one section of the economy:View attachment 858274
It since recovered when the US halved the Sanctions but it shows how powerful these sanctions can be.

Turks would rather keep their country and territorial integrity intact.

No nation means nothing. Why should Turks and the Turkish nation sacrifice what they achieved just because the kurds are whiny babies who got shafted by the British and the French due to ww1 promises.

Kurds have always been henchman to every empire that passes through and the Americans are the latest one to shaft them.

Its thanks to the Kurds that the Assyrians got butchered in ww1. When the Ottomans were at war with the Greeks and Armenians the Kurds basically went and attacked the Assyrians because they were fair game.

Long story short never ally with the Kurds at all. Only thing they cause is trouble and more trouble. While at the same time they hate Turkey and Iraq while at the same time benefitting from their citizenships and passports.

People wonder why the Turks and Arabs hate them so much.
 
Turks would rather keep their country and territorial integrity intact.

No nation means nothing. Why should Turks and the Turkish nation sacrifice what they achieved just because the kurds are whiny babies who got shafted by the British and the French due to ww1 promises.

Kurds have always been henchman to every empire that passes through and the Americans are the latest one to shaft them.

Its thanks to the Kurds that the Assyrians got butchered in ww1. When the Ottomans were at war with the Greeks and Armenians the Kurds basically went and attacked the Assyrians because they were fair game.

Long story short never ally with the Kurds at all. Only thing they cause is trouble and more trouble. While at the same time they hate Turkey and Iraq while at the same time benefitting from their citizenships and passports.

People wonder why the Turks and Arabs hate them so much.
Your dripping with Turkish exceptionalism, last i heard it was the Turkish that where doing the race eliminatating, and even without the poor war excuse they where doing it earlier in the 1800s.

Remember it's not the same thing when the ones in power are the ones doing all the racial crimes and Turks have a bad record when it comes to every single race in their region(Including Arabs): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism_in_Turkey
 
Your dripping with Turkish exceptionalism, last i heard it was the Turkish that where doing the race eliminatating, and even without the poor war excuse they where doing it earlier in the 1800s.

Remember it's not the same thing when the ones in power are the ones doing all the racial crimes and Turks have a bad record when it comes to every single race in their region(Including Arabs): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism_in_Turkey

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Muslims_during_Ottoman_contraction

Muslim populations eliminated or deported when the Ottoman Empire was collapsing. Albanians, Bosniaks even Muslim greeks were elimnated or deported. Muslim Greeks were not Turks but were called Turks by christian greeks which to them can easily be killed or deported because to be greek you have to be Orthodox Christian going out of it means your no longer Greek. Guess where most Muslim Greeks ended up in??? You name it is Turkey. Then again this happened due to the Ottoman Empire collapsing and the consequences of declining and collapsing. Afterall the Ottomans were no angels either. But people paint the conflict in such a way it is just good vs evil and the Muslims are evil and bad while the christians are good.

Armenians and Greeks tried to replicate it in anatolia as the Ottoman Empire collapsed.

Regardless if you want to call it a genocide or not. The Turks had to do what they can to survive as their homeland was under threat.

Lets be honest the Greeks and the Armenians would have easily wiped out the Turks in Anatolia if they won.

If it ever bothers you Anatolia has been a Turkish home ever since 1071. With the Turkish independance war the Turks fought for their homeland. The word Turkey, Turchia or Turkiye came out of no where.

By all means Turks are worthy of their land. Either conquer or be conquered. Thats how history works you cant change it.

Turks and Kurds have been allies for centuries lol the reason why they are at each others throats because the Kurds want a country at the expense of Turkish territory and land. Honestly think the Turks are willing to just give up land just to appease the Kurds.

I kid you not the Ottomans prefered Sunni Kurds over Shia Turkmens who were allied with Safavid Iran.
 
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Some serious **** is going on in Syria.

A convoy of Turkish military was ambushed and struck on in Idlib, killing 22~60 soldiers (numbers differ in various sources), reportedly, by the Syrian Arab Army. This happened shortly after the last negotiations round with Russia that the Turks described as “failed”.

Pro-Turkish Twitters say Erdogan will declare war on Syria tomorrow.

Iranian media report about two missiles fired from the Turkish territory intercepted by the Russian anti-aircraft defense.
 
Wow, this is getting complicated.

Where will NATO stand? Where will the USA stand? Where will the Arab countries stand? Where will Iran stand? So many conflicting alliances...it's beginning to look a lot like 1917.
 
The Syrian forces are quite battle hardened by now, and if they have a sugardaddy like Russia behind them, Turkey might receive a decent punch here and there.

I can't wait for our resident Recep to chime in again!
 
The death toll of the strike on the Turkish army units is at least 39, and over 100 are wounded.

I watched the videos (I think they're not appropriate for this forum, so google them yourself if you want to), and... you know what? This was definetly an airstrike, and it happened in the nighttime. And there's no way the Syrian Air Force with their ancient MiG-21's and Su-22's could lay the bombs with such precision in the dark. There is only one air force allied with Syria in the region that had the equipment and ability to do so. Yes, you know who I mean.

Turkey, however, doesn't blame Russia yet, only the "Syrian regime", calling this an "agression" (yes, the army attacking invaders on its own territory is the aggressor).

It turns out if you invade a foreign country they don't like that.
Imagine Japan calling the US an aggressor in December 1941 and complaining about Americans shooting down the Japanese warplanes in Pearl Harbor.
 
Wow, this is getting complicated.

Where will NATO stand? Where will the USA stand? Where will the Arab countries stand? Where will Iran stand? So many conflicting alliances...it's beginning to look a lot like 1917.
IMHO it's a bit rich for Erdogan to get angry at Syria after losing a few dozen troops while his forces previously claimed multiple hundred Syrian losses inflicted by Turkey within Syrian territory.
But anyway he pleads for NATO backup and get rebuffed. So now he gets all huffy about sending more refugees to Europe.
 
The Syrian forces are quite battle hardened by now, and if they have a sugardaddy like Russia behind them, Turkey might receive a decent punch here and there.

I can't wait for our resident Recep to chime in again!

So battle hardended only thing assads army is good for is killing their own people.

I hope Turkey slaps them hard.
 
Erdogan isn't a dictator, he's a populist moderate who drained the swamp in the name of the people. Just like Trump.
 
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