Estimate GT Sport sales

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How many copies will GT Sport sell?


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For FPS that may well be the case, but its certainly not for racing titles, Sims in particular. The percentage of buyers who go online for even a short period of time is between 5 and 10 percent.

Read a pretty sobering statistic recently about online player retention:



I wonder how that will translate to racing games — with a game so single-mindedly focused on competition, how long will the average player put up with constantly not winning?
 
Read a pretty sobering statistic recently about online player retention:



I wonder how that will translate to racing games — with a game so single-mindedly focused on competition, how long will the average player put up with constantly not winning?


Off topic but that Twitter thread is so awesome.
 
I'm tempted, but I wouldn't want to wager anything on it! I think it could be pretty tight between PCars2 and GTS. Certainly SMS appear to be eyeing that territory with talk of aiming for an 'approachable' sim. It remains to prove itself, but the feature list certainly isn't lacking.
Honestly, it's like comparing Battleborn to Overwatch. I'm not commenting on the quality of said titles, but the scale and reach of PCars 2 vs GTS.......they're on different levels. As I stated earlier, PCars sold a little over 1m on PS4, but hasn't garnered much goodwill after controller and bug issues, to suggest it can take a sales step forward.

Even on a hardcore gamers forum like Neogaf, there's been little over two dozen posts on PCars 2 over the past seven days. A week or so from release, that says something.

For FPS that may well be the case, but its certainly not for racing titles, Sims in particular. The percentage of buyers who go online for even a short period of time is between 5 and 10 percent.
I don't think stats (where ever they may come from) bears much relevance when a franchise of 70m+, on a platform edging towards 80m (by end of year), with the full weight of PlayStation, moves into a new direction.

The sim genre is populated by indie devs, the business model Sony and PD will be following is of the biggest players in the industry, whatever genre that may be. You have to execute that plan from a software perspective, but also need the marketing budget to inform and sell, to millions if gamers.
 
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I don't think stats (where ever they may come from) bears much relevance when a franchise of 70m+, on a platform edging towards 80m (by end of year), with the full weight of PlayStation, moves into a new direction.

The sim genre is populated by indie devs, the business model Sony and PD will be following is of the biggest players in the industry, whatever genre that may be. You have to execute that plan from a software perspective, but also need the marketing budget to inform and sell, to millions if gamers.
The stats come effectively from Sony, being based on the trophy percentages for online play for pretty much every PS4 racing title.

The results are pretty much the same regardless of title or developer, a high average of 10% of owners try racing online, with on average less than 5% staying for the long haul.

What we also know from GT5 and GT6 is that while the titles sold very well, the numbers that engaged with it for any duration dropped quickly, with around 50% not even owning 10 or more cars.

Given that data (and it's about the most accurate and largest data set we have to use) the potential audience for online racing is very, very low; and the audience willing to hang around long enough for an eSports campaign to work it's way out is even lower.

Without a significant single player element to help hold retention, and with racing titles not having the same level of instant gratification and and 'micro wins' that online shooters have, it's a hell of a gamble PD are taking.

Personally I hope it works, as a larger online community is good for all, however the raw numbers are against them.

My other area of concern is that PD have not partnered with anyone who has any experience of eSports, something that would have helped significantly.
 
And I'm surprised people think GT Sport will sell that underwhelmingly. Sure, 10 million sounds (very) optimistic, but I doubt the game will sell less than GT6. Don't get me wrong, I see where you're coming from, but 2 million sounds a bit too low.

We'll see how it'll sell when the game comes out. :)
My number is a conservative number based on the disappointing last 2 games and lack of real advancement in this edition coupled with the fact there is negativity generally around the franchise now and that we are no longer stuck with only one racing title as an option on PlayStation.


My number is also a figure for sales during and around its release at full price, not its lifecycle. This is the first GT title that sales figures are totally unpredictable.
 
Again Scaff, it's data looking to the past......in a stagnating genre. The F1 2017's of this world doubled down on single-player, Championships, historic challenges etc. A fine game, but sales continue to decline.

The last Gran Turismo released almost 4yrs ago on a last gen system. We're in a world of Destiny, Overerwatch, PUBG and Rocket League. #PS4share, photomode and sharing on platforms like YouTube is the norm.

Player retention comes from daily challenges, leaderboards, content drops and community interaction. This very forum is an example of how we are all engaged with a title that's not even out yet. It's a mistake to think online competition is strict eleagues, rules and regulations. I jump online into public servers for quick races, practice and virtual trackdays. I do everything I did offline (hotlapping, setups etc.) only in an online environment.

You could argue GTS is ahead of it's time. But the rise of online competition in other genres, and PCars/Forza quickly adding esport elements, suggests to me dedicated offline campaigns will be a thing of the past in the coming years.

It will be interesting to watch regardless.
 
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The F1 2017's of this world doubled down on single-player, Championships, historic challenges etc. A fine game, but sales continue to decline.

I don't know that any game based on a single series is a good example considering they are niche markets within a niche market.

It probably doesn't help that Codemasters doesn't exactly have the greatest track record.

Player retention comes from daily challenges, leaderboards, content drops and community interaction.

Player retention is a tough one as everyone plays for different reasons, which is why it's a good idea to not move too far away from things that have traditionally been a draw. It's why even heavily online focused FPS games still have a solo campaign, even if it is half-assed.

Take your list for instance, while things like community challenges and leaderboards may be fun to some, for others they are about as interesting as watching paint dry on a humid day.

Personally nothing keeps me coming back like a good single player mode. Sure online can be great, but the last thing I want to do after a 10 hour day is get home, hope to have some relaxing racing only to be met by some trash mouthed 14 year old who doesn't know how to use the brakes.
 
Honestly, it's like comparing Battleborn to Overwatch. I'm not commenting on the quality of said titles, but the scale and reach of PCars 2 vs GTS.......they're on different levels. As I stated earlier, PCars sold a little over 1m on PS4, but hasn't garnered much goodwill after controller and bug issues, to suggest it can take a sales step forward.

Even on a hardcore gamers forum like Neogaf, there's been little over two dozen posts on PCars 2 over the past seven days. A week or so from release, that says something.

Sure, the issues with PCars 1 will put some people off, and there's many 'if's about PCars 2 selling considerably more. But the feature list is going to tempt a lot of people, even if they're sceptical that SMS can pull it all off. So, over 2 million on PS4 could happen.

Likewise, GT's decline could continue, even accelerate due to the lack of offline gameplay. It could be as poor as only half of GT6 sales.

Maybe you missed that I italicise the word 'could', both here and in the post you quoted. Obviously for it to become tight between those two would need both extremes to happen... and they probably won't ;)

A baseline of 5m is a given

Absolutely not. A GT that isn't the traditional GT is a huge unknown. It's kind of fun to guess at sales figures in the hope of being right, but there's little point in arguing over it :)
 
Casual racers are going to look at the name "Gran Turismo" and buy it without a care in the world.

Racing game sales are decreasing overall, and the last two GT games haven't sold well for their franchise, but that isn't gonna stop GTS from having better sales than most other racing games out there

Casual racers are a dying breed.

That´s an assumption, but hey, in the spirit of argumentation, that´s the way i´m seeing things in the market right now. There are less and less people just casually interested in racing games.

Technology has made racing games in general more complex and complicated, it drove away a number of people. You have us, the hardcore crowd and a pool of casuals that is way smaller than it was in the 90´s and early 00´s.

Sales of arcade racers are a good indication of why my perception MIGHT be accurate.

Remember the 90´s and the sheer number of racing games released? On F1 alone i swear we had like three or four each year.

Oh, but this is Gran Turismo, there´s a huge market that only plays GT because of it´s carpg elements and huge carrer mode... oh wait, you don´t have this in GTS.

That's the casual play element. Play for a while and then move on to something else. As for online.

1. Assetto Corsa. Complete ONE lap in an online race. 15.1%.
2. Pro Cars NO online Trophy exceeds 7.5%.

Or sometimes don´t play at all and move on.

Let´s not forget GTS has a paywall for online, and has a paywall for competitive racing (you have to buy a new wheel for the PS4), so not only the content is dire, but they are introducing new obstacles for the people that bought GT in the PS3 era.

It can´t rely on the casuals because they are less and less, and it can´t rely on the hardcore crowd because there are a handful of other sims doing hardcore in a way that GTS can´t and won´t.

If these assumptions are right, then it´s almost impossible to match GT6 sales with this game.
 
and has a paywall for competitive racing (you have to buy a new wheel for the PS4)

Probably for the higher echelons. The DS4 was very good in the beta, while the wheel was knobbled with speed sensitivity - I chose to use DS4! The full game will presumably have more settings for the wheel, and a way to get direct ('simulation' mode?) wheel control.
 
Technology has made racing games in general more complex and complicated, it drove away a number of people.

That's something I've never really thought about until you mentioned it. Most games that are popular online are pretty much plug-n-play in that you chose your weapon and go. That's not really possible in racing games though as in order to be really good at it you're going to need to be intimately familiar with quite a few tracks, your car as well as some knowhow on how to tune it (or a good source for tunes), not to mention the need for good race craft.

Granted none of those things are necessarily hard, but it can certainly seem like a mountain to a casual gamer with little knowledge.
 
Again Scaff, it's data looking to the past......in a stagnating genre. The F1 2017's of this world doubled down on single-player, Championships, historic challenges etc. A fine game, but sales continue to decline.

The last Gran Turismo released almost 4yrs ago on a last gen system. We're in a world of Destiny, Overerwatch, PUBG and Rocket League. #PS4share, photomode and sharing on platforms like YouTube is the norm.

Player retention comes from daily challenges, leaderboards, content drops and community interaction. This very forum is an example of how we are all engaged with a title that's not even out yet. It's a mistake to think online competition is strict eleagues, rules and regulations. I jump online into public servers for quick races, practice and virtual trackdays. I do everything I did offline (hotlapping, setups etc.) only in an online environment.

You could argue GTS is ahead of it's time. But the rise of online competition in other genres, and PCars/Forza quickly adding esport elements, suggests to me dedicated offline campaigns will be a thing of the past in the coming years.

It will be interesting to watch regardless.
Please quote people when replying so they know you have replied.

In regard to the data, it's not just historic but very much current, I've also already covered why you can't directly translate what has happened with the increase in shooter online activities to racing titles, they are not the same and have vastly differing mechanics to keep players engaged online.

You seem to be taking the anecdotal evidence from people like me and you and extrapolating that as if it's the norm. It's not, we are the 5%.

Titles are already trying the daily, weekly and monthly challenges, they don't have any greater take up than racing online.

Nor is PCars 'quickly adding' eSports, it's been the single most active racing eSports title on every platform for the last two years, with more race series, leagues, challenges and tools for doing so that GTS has. It's also linked to one of the largest eSports companies around. Yet it's still the 5% that are involved in this.

GTS is categorically not breaking any new ground in this area at all, the only card it has to play is that if (and right now it is an if) it sells as well as past titles it's 5% is bigger than everyone else's. That however is a very big if, given that the market is in a very different place to GT's past.
 
Casual racers are a dying breed.

That´s an assumption, but hey, in the spirit of argumentation, that´s the way i´m seeing things in the market right now. There are less and less people just casually interested in racing games.

Technology has made racing games in general more complex and complicated, it drove away a number of people. You have us, the hardcore crowd and a pool of casuals that is way smaller than it was in the 90´s and early 00´s.

Sales of arcade racers are a good indication of why my perception MIGHT be accurate.

Remember the 90´s and the sheer number of racing games released? On F1 alone i swear we had like three or four each year.

Oh, but this is Gran Turismo, there´s a huge market that only plays GT because of it´s carpg elements and huge carrer mode... oh wait, you don´t have this in GTS.



Or sometimes don´t play at all and move on.

Let´s not forget GTS has a paywall for online, and has a paywall for competitive racing (you have to buy a new wheel for the PS4), so not only the content is dire, but they are introducing new obstacles for the people that bought GT in the PS3 era.

It can´t rely on the casuals because they are less and less, and it can´t rely on the hardcore crowd because there are a handful of other sims doing hardcore in a way that GTS can´t and won´t.

If these assumptions are right, then it´s almost impossible to match GT6 sales with this game.
The problem with your assumption is the sales numbers for the PS4. If casuals are a dying breed then console sales would do the same. Since when would a casual even use a wheel? Are racing games that unpopular? GT5 wasn't that long ago you know.
 
The problem with your assumption is the sales numbers for the PS4. If casuals are a dying breed then console sales would do the same....
It's also an innacurate blanket term these days as well.

Someone could be a hardcore, always online FPS player who dedicated 90% of the time to COD or BF or R6S, and for the remaining 10% is a casual platform and racing gamer.

I'm (and I suspect the majority here are as well) the reverse of that situation, 90% of my time is spent with racing titles, predominantly Sims. It's what makes up 90% of my YouTube channel. Yet I'm still a casual Shooter and adventure gamer, quite partial to a bit of Uncharted or COD, etc.

It's not that casual gamers do or don't exist, they certainly do, it's just not a 100% accurate catch all anymore. The market is just too big and too mature for that.
 
The problem with your assumption is the sales numbers for the PS4. If casuals are a dying breed then console sales would do the same. Since when would a casual even use a wheel? Are racing games that unpopular? GT5 wasn't that long ago you know.

The casuals comment is specific to racing games. In general there is a lot more people playing these days, sales numbers would say this. It´s only a dying breed in the racing genre.

Then after commenting about casuals I pointed out some problems to attract the hardcore or more serious crowd, which is the cost of a new wheel + PSN.

GT5 was late 2010 and it was the most hyped and expected racing game of all time. It was a huge hit, but i believe a lot of things have changed since them. It all depends if people believe GT6 was the start of a trend or just a one time flunk.
 
The casuals comment is specific to racing games. In general there is a lot more people playing these days, sales numbers would say this. It´s only a dying breed in the racing genre.

Then after commenting about casuals I pointed out some problems to attract the hardcore or more serious crowd, which is the cost of a new wheel + PSN.

GT5 was late 2010 and it was the most hyped and expected racing game of all time. It was a huge hit, but i believe a lot of things have changed since them. It all depends if people believe GT6 was the start of a trend or just a one time flunk.
GT5 arrived under big expectation and, more importantly, good feeling about the genre after the PS2 games high point. That fell away with disappointment with GT5 and was finished off by GT6. That is why I expect this game to significantly under perform. Not because people don't want to play racers anymore. I believe if PD produced GT7 and it was a real GT game as per the first four games then it would succeed. All it takes is to accept that neither online or offline is what it is about. Make the game for both and you win. Make it for one - as in GT6 and now GTS and you lose the other half of your players. The trouble with that is that the split between offline and online is massively in favour of offline. Making a game for a minority is not the way to sell copies in the kind of numbers people expect for the series.

The cost of a wheel and Plus to someone serious is very doubtful. If you take it seriously you would consider a wheel at the minimum. If you want to race others I don't see Plus as an issue. I don't race online. I still have Plus though. Primarily for discounts, free stuff and Destiny.

Does my insistence on one player and total dislike of online racing make me casual? My wish for a GT-Mode of the old school would indicate that. My G29 broke yesterday. Was confirmed to be broken today. I was on Amazon today. My T150 arrives tomorrow. That sound casual to you?
 
I see a lot of reasoning on both sides of why it will or wont sell. But looking back at the previous games, GT5P selling over 5 million should say something. That was a nice game, but tiny compared to other games. Even GT3. Speaking of GT3, I go back to that example a lot because a good amount of people say GT should be about big car numbers and such, but GT3 was the best selling game for them. It was also their smallest game (in terms of car list at least). I don't doubt the power of the GT name. It still holds a lot of weight imo. I do believe the PS4 had an affect on GT6's sales. While it wasn't much of if any improvement over GT5 in lots of areas, it was still a new game with better features. I can't wait to see what GTS does in terms of sales. I voted 5 million. But I voted that as I think that it will sell that much until the next system or next GT game comes out.
 
I voted 7 million and I think I'm being generous. That's still better than what GT6 did. With the competitive and online focus of GTS, I just don't see it breaking 10 million at all, let alone getting within range of GT3's sales.

GT3 sales are waaaay skewed because of the bundle they did for it for ages. Nowadays the shelf life for a bundle is a few months. That said, I think I'd put it just ahead of GT6 too. The livery editor will certainly attract a new crowd, I'll say 8mil lifetime.

I also can't wait to get my FIA license 👍


Jerome
 
The thing about the racing wheel barrier is that GT is a game that doesn't require a wheel to be the fastest driver. There were actually some seasonal time trials that I ended up being faster on the controller than with the wheel.

Again Scaff, it's data looking to the past......in a stagnating genre. The F1 2017's of this world doubled down on single-player, Championships, historic challenges etc. A fine game, but sales continue to decline.

That's a very good point. I think it was back when FM5 sells disappointed that Dan Greenwalt stated that the racing game landscape was changing. Based on AC, PC and FM5/6, NFS, Grid, etc. sales, that seems like a plausible statement. The "low" sales of GT6 seems to go along with that thinking, not taking the release timing into account.

But what does it say about the market/genre, and its participants, if GTS does happen to be a hit (5+ million)?

I don't doubt the power of the GT name. It still holds a lot of weight imo.

What about the power of the Forza name? FM7 will make the tenth game in the Forza series, compared to GT's seven (eight if TT is included). T10 has built a reputation for producing polished, content rich games on a clock-work schedule.
 
The thing about the racing wheel barrier is that GT is a game that doesn't require a wheel to be the fastest driver. There were actually some seasonal time trials that I ended up being faster on the controller than with the wheel.
Perhaps GTS will be different in this regard, but millions upon millions of data points from GT5 seasonal events say the complete opposite to this. The same data is not available for GT6 as far as I know.
 
I see a lot of reasoning on both sides of why it will or wont sell. But looking back at the previous games, GT5P selling over 5 million should say something. That was a nice game, but tiny compared to other games. Even GT3. Speaking of GT3, I go back to that example a lot because a good amount of people say GT should be about big car numbers and such, but GT3 was the best selling game for them. It was also their smallest game (in terms of car list at least). I don't doubt the power of the GT name. It still holds a lot of weight imo. I do believe the PS4 had an affect on GT6's sales. While it wasn't much of if any improvement over GT5 in lots of areas, it was still a new game with better features. I can't wait to see what GTS does in terms of sales. I voted 5 million. But I voted that as I think that it will sell that much until the next system or next GT game comes out.

Yeah, GT3 was a smallish game after the huge amount of content GT2 had... but it was still the largest game at the time on the PS2. It also benefitted from far more bundling than any other GT — and it was 16 years ago.

As for GT5P, it was released only two years after GT4 (a game that was still very well-received), and was the first real taste of GT on PS3 (outside of the GTHD demo).

It's part of why this one, to me, is so hard to estimate. Was GT6 a blip, or is it a sign of where sales for the franchise will land from now on? Is GT Sport being so massively different from what's come before going to help, or hurt, its chances? There are a whole bunch of variables.

The thing about the racing wheel barrier is that GT is a game that doesn't require a wheel to be the fastest driver. There were actually some seasonal time trials that I ended up being faster on the controller than with the wheel.

Indeed. GT (and Forza) aren't really like AC or PCARS1 (important distinction there) — both of them work just fine with a pad. Indeed, judging by the Sport beta, there may be even less of a gap between the two input methods than before.

What about the power of the Forza name? FM7 will make the tenth game in the Forza series, compared to GT's seven (eight if TT is included). T10 has built a reputation for producing polished, content rich games on a clock-work schedule.

It's a double-edged sword: Forza is essentially alone in producing racing games on a consistent schedule, but that can feel boring and unsurprising to some folks. They always feel well-produced and have relatively few bugs, but that two-year schedule means the games tend to feel evolutionary compared to revolutionary. It's a pragmatic approach, and some people don't like that.

Though, I will say, playing FM5 recently, and knowing what I saw at the closed-door showing of FM7 at E3, there's quite a lot of progress made in a lot of areas of that franchise. FM5 launched around the same time as GT6, and FM7 will launch around the same time as GT Sport. Comparing the jumps in both franchises, I'd say both have made significant leaps in certain areas.

GT meanwhile, possibly thanks to its impossible-to-predict production cycles, always feels different from what came before (well, GT6 excepted, IMO). And Sport, more so than FM7, PCARS2, or any other sequel coming this year, is different at its very foundation. How much the name recognition plays into things will be interesting.
 
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With all these contradictory news, good luck to Sony. It looks like the hype o meter is close to zero and even for the usual GT fans.
The last news about online is just the icing on the cake.
 
Google trends for Gran Turismo, Project Cars and Forza Videogame Series Searches is interesting:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=/m/025dcx,/m/0j9mrxv,/m/0gk_mqh,/g/11bwjc6m6t

(wish I could figure out an easy way to paste the graph here)

It would be interesting to compare Gran Turismo Sport to Project Cars 2 to Forza 7 but Google only seems to know about Gran Turismo Sport... this in itself is bizarre given the following searches:

News searches:

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...yanWAhWDS7wKHQaqAMIQ_AUICigB&biw=1920&bih=901

Gran Turismo Sport
About 584,000 results (0.21 seconds)

https://www.google.com.au/search?bi....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..6.8.2941....0.zpFE7PTPJx4

Project Cars 2
About 2,820,000 results (0.48 seconds)

https://www.google.com.au/search?bi.....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..3.4.980....0.ni6oAOEe5Y0

Forza 7
About 28,500,000 results (0.52 seconds)
 
Racing games as a genre has massively collapsed, the only area where sales are good is in EU. Forza Horizon was an unexpected hit but still relatively small. GT is really the only mainstream racing game right now.....well besides Mario Kart.

With all these contradictory news, good luck to Sony. It looks like the hype o meter is close to zero and even for the usual GT fans.
The last news about online is just the icing on the cake.

Wishful thinking. Your projections are getting funnier by the day.
 
The game won't match any of its predecessors. Maybe if they are lucky, might hit the same number as GT6.

The gaming industry as changed, the world as changed.
Gaming is more expensive overall, there's no such thing as buying one year old big titles for 20 euros/dollars. There's no such thing as buying 5 games at once for christmas or your birthday with less than 100 bucks, which means less chances for GTS being randomly picked up by a casual.
Also, mobile gaming is a thing now, which supresses the gaming needs for many casuals.

Also, the society is not the same as it was 10 or 15 years ago. And we have to get that. We live in a generation of kids who don't bother playing games anymore, atleast not as much as we did before them. We live in a generation of 10 year old girls wearing make up to go to school, and 10 year old boys trying to pick up those girls. They have 300/400$ cell phones, a new one every 12 to 17 months. 100 dollars shoes, 50 dollars t-shirts, and so on. The money is pretty much the same, it's just spent elsewhere, in things that are fashionable (clothes and cell phones), and give you social acceptance. Gaming does not get you none of that, kids won't get girls by gaming, and that's the mind set they have. There's also the huge number of summer festivals, which are not particulary cheap, but parents still pay the tickets for their kids.

All in all, the money that we spent in games in our generations, is no longer spent in them in modern generations. They might pick up a few games, the ones that they will surely play for a long time and they have friends to play with, CSGO, FIFA, COD, BF, etc, other than that, they have no reason or money to spend on a random game to just try it out, like we used to do.

Different times, just hope for the best, that this game isn't seen as a failure and delivers in their promisses and in future content.
 
Racing games as a genre has massively collapsed, the only area where sales are good is in EU. Forza Horizon was an unexpected hit but still relatively small. GT is really the only mainstream racing game right now.....well besides Mario Kart.
PCars was crowd funded and independently produced and sold 2.5 million copies with no bundling or promotion from Sony or Microsoft. DriveClub and FH3 were both over 2 million as I recall. Those are great numbers for games with small budgets but not so great for a big budget AAA studio like PD or T10. This tells me there is still huge potential in this genre for the right type of game and lots of success to be had, especially by smaller, more targeted offerings.
 
Google trends for Gran Turismo, Project Cars and Forza Videogame Series Searches is interesting:

This is what I get:

Google trending vs forza project last 3 months 2.jpg


https://trends.google.com/trends/ex... Sport","Project CARS 2","Forza Motorsport 7"
 
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