Estimate GT Sport sales

[danh25]

When i said 3, i meant sold right now. I voted for 5 million for its life span.


There's no chance GTS already sold over 4 million copies.

I'd say its close to 2 atm. Profiles means nothing and the open beta profiles count.

but if only in the UK and at almost 500 thousand copies, how will it ever be close to 2 million copies, at this moment, all over the world?

You're really underestimating the sales of GTS and quite a lot

 

[Lord Kacperov]

When i said 3, i meant sold right now. I voted for 5 million for its life span.


There's no chance GTS already sold over 4 million copies.

I'd say its close to 2 atm. Profiles means nothing and the open beta profiles count.

I’d say the game has between 3.5 and 4 million sales, perhaps as low as 3 million. 2 million sounds too low, especially when there are 4.6 million accounts for GT Sport. I doubt that there are that many shared copies.

I don’t know, I hope we get a full sales report for GT Sport soon.

 

[Outspacer]

When i said 3, i meant sold right now. I voted for 5 million for its life span.


There's no chance GTS already sold over 4 million copies.

I'd say its close to 2 atm. Profiles means nothing and the open beta profiles count.

Kudosprime does exclude beta-only profiles, and currently says 3,683,400 profiles for the full game. So fair guesses could be from about 2.5 to about 3.25, IMO, based on that.

The other factor is people buying bundles who then don't play the game at all. I find it hard to believe that accounts for a large % though, most would at least try it. But then, didn't we have a bundle with FIFA and GTS in the UK? I know I have no interest whatsoever in FIFA, so....

 

[HellzFire]

but if only in the UK and at almost 500 thousand copies, how will it ever be close to 2 million copies, at this moment, all over the world?

You're really underestimating the sales of GTS and quite a lot

UK is one of GT biggest markets. Sold 450k.

In Japan it didnt pass 200k yet. In US, it never charted in the top 10/30. Id say there it sold less than in Japan.

If you put the rest of europe, id say it probably sold close to 600k. So, we have roughly 1.5m units sold.

Latin America, Africa, Oceania and the rest of Asia are almost irrelevant markets for games, especially racing games.

I'd be shocked if GTS sold 2 million copies so far.

 

[danh25]

UK is one of GT biggest markets. Sold 450k.

In Japan it didnt pass 200k yet. In US, it never charted in the top 10/30. Id say there it sold less than in Japan.

If you put the rest of europe, id say it probably sold close to 600k. So, we have roughly 1.5m units sold.

Latin America, Africa, Oceania and the rest of Asia are almost irrelevant markets for games, especially racing games.

I'd be shocked if GTS sold 2 million copies so far.

What calculations are they? and no, the biggest market for GT is Germany and, at the very least, it will have made the same numbers as the UK.
So already with only these 2 countries we are at 1 million scarce.
For the rest of the countries we do not know when it sold digitally and there are certain countries, like Japan, where digital is very strong.


Then it seems like a nonsense this thing of multiple accounts because on GTS, do a smurf account, i do not know what it can serve.

 

[HellzFire]

What calculations are they? and no, the biggest market for GT is Germany and, at the very least, it will have made the same numbers as the UK.
So already with only these 2 countries we are at 1 million scarce.
For the rest of the countries we do not know when it sold digitally and there are certain countries, like Japan, where digital is very strong.


Then it seems like a nonsense this thing of multiple accounts because on GTS, do a smurf account, i do not know what it can serve.

If you do a simple log in on an account, it is counting as a new profile.

There's people that buy the game and have multiple persons playing on the same PS4.

There's game sharing.

There's smurfing.

There's people that want to see the top times on other regions and make accounts on another regions. I personally have 3 accounts that logged in on GTS, but only have played on my main.

If GTS had sold 4m copies we would have heard from PD by now. There's no way it has.

The only concrete numbers we have are the 450k from UK and less than 200k for Japan. The rest is purely speculation.

Profile numbers can be very misleading.

 

[KingFrog]

UK is one of GT biggest markets. Sold 450k.

In Japan it didnt pass 200k yet. In US, it never charted in the top 10/30. Id say there it sold less than in Japan.

If you put the rest of europe, id say it probably sold close to 600k. So, we have roughly 1.5m units sold.

Latin America, Africa, Oceania and the rest of Asia are almost irrelevant markets for games, especially racing games.

I'd be shocked if GTS sold 2 million copies so far.

Latin America ( Brazil ) is one of the strongest markets for racing games..
Also we are excluding bundled sales .

 

[HellzFire]

Latin America ( Brazil ) is one of the strongest markets for racing games..

It isnt. Racing games nowadays dont sell much.

If i have to guess, id say right now if Brazil have 20k copies sold, thatd be too much.

In the Americas region, Brazil is behind US and Canada. GTS sold very poorly on NA, didnt even made top 10 on its launch month, didnt even hit PS4 top 10 physical.

Only made top 10 digital once as well.

 

[danh25]

If you do a simple log in on an account, it is counting as a new profile.

There's people that buy the game and have multiple persons playing on the same PS4.

There's game sharing.

There's smurfing.

There's people that want to see the top times on other regions and make accounts on another regions. I personally have 3 accounts that logged in on GTS, but only have played on my main.

If GTS had sold 4m copies we would have heard from PD by now. There's no way it has.

The only concrete numbers we have are the 450k from UK and less than 200k for Japan. The rest is purely speculation.

Profile numbers can be very misleading.

If I'm not mistaken the PD update the data after the first year of sale and 5 months is too short a time to mark them on the site.
Personally people who do this will be a very small circle of the total because they are very marginal things.

I repeat that 2 million is an unrealistic figure

 

[HellzFire]

If I'm not mistaken the PD update the data after the first year of sale and 5 months is too short a time to mark them on the site.
Personally people who do this will be a very small circle of the total because they are very marginal things.

I repeat that 2 million is an unrealistic figure

I think 2 million is a bit optmistic. 4 million copies is definitely unrealistic. I hope i'm wrong cause i love GTS and want the game to be successful. But i think i am right.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

If I'm not mistaken the PD update the data after the first year of sale and 5 months is too short a time to mark them on the site.
Personally people who do this will be a very small circle of the total because they are very marginal things.

I repeat that 2 million is an unrealistic figure

Actually, Sony wasted no time getting the figures out for GT5:
https://www.gtplanet.net/5-5-million-copies-of-gt5-sold-series-tops-60-million/

It was only with GT6 that there was a significant wait to get official figures.

Not that I'm doubting GT out-sold the genre — I expect that! — but one thing worth pointing out in terms of digital sales is that other games like PCARS2 and FM7 have special editions in digital form that offer a significant advantage over physical. GT Sport had some cool collector editions (in Europe ) and PCARS2 had that very rare McLaren model pack. FM7 in particular only has a digital version of it's Ultimate, IIRC. That could skew the digital take rate as a higher percentage of the overall sales in that game's case.

I doubt we'll ever get sales figures for the big three, but it'd be fascinating to see the breakdowns. Plus, as the other two cover other platforms, that'd make for some interesting stats too.

 

[mthomas_95]

For all we know for every duplicate account from the same 'sale' there'll be people who got the game as part of a bundle and haven't started it.

It sold nearly a million in the opening week, and probably about that on Black Friday and Christmas combined. So 2 million is miles too low, I'd be looking at around 3.5-4m now.

 

[ALB123]

UK is one of GT biggest markets. Sold 450k.

In Japan it didnt pass 200k yet. In US, it never charted in the top 10/30. Id say there it sold less than in Japan.

If you put the rest of europe, id say it probably sold close to 600k. So, we have roughly 1.5m units sold.

Latin America, Africa, Oceania and the rest of Asia are almost irrelevant markets for games, especially racing games.

I'd be shocked if GTS sold 2 million copies so far.

Wow. I am shocked. Everything about your post shocks me. I wonder how the sales figure should be interpreted...well, other than the obvious - It hasn't sold for nothin'.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

Wow. I am shocked. Everything about your post shocks me. I wonder how the sales figure should be interpreted...well, other than the obvious - It hasn't sold for nothin'.

It's all relative. Are the days of eight-digit sales figures behind GT? Probably — although I wouldn't completely rule that out either, based on the games-as-a-service model extending shelf life.

I'd be surprised if GT isn't still the best-selling single racing title released in the past year though. Not counting Mario Kart, of course.

 

[mthomas_95]

So we know from the sales figures at the weekend GT Sport sold 485k in the UK in 2017. @Milouse's site only lists 449k UK players and that's as of yesterday.

Replicate that across every other country/region and his 3.7m player figure is probably underestimating 'sales', which Sony accountants will probably care about a bit more than the lower player number

 

[ImaRobot]

Replicate that across every other country/region and his 3.7m player figure is probably underestimating 'sales', which Sony accountants will probably care about a bit more than the lower player number

Thats the absolute best case scenario though. We know that some countries sell just a fraction of that.

 

[SHGTP]

UK is one of GT biggest markets. Sold 450k.

In Japan it didnt pass 200k yet. In US, it never charted in the top 10/30. Id say there it sold less than in Japan.

If you put the rest of europe, id say it probably sold close to 600k. So, we have roughly 1.5m units sold.

Latin America, Africa, Oceania and the rest of Asia are almost irrelevant markets for games, especially racing games.

I'd be shocked if GTS sold 2 million copies so far.

The market is different to what you are arguing. Profile data underestimates actual sales by up to 20%. We know this by comparing UK sales data (retail & digital) vs Profile data at the end of 2017.

In the UK GT Sport has now sold over 500k. UK is the second largest market after the US (Profile data), so we know it has sold over 500k in the US too. The last figure we had from Japan was early November when it was approximately 195k. Countries like Germany, France and Spain are all in the hundreds of thousands. PS4 is sold in over 120 markets. Some of those markets will be tiny, others will contribute tens of thousands, when you add all 120+ together, it's a significant number.

From those sampling 100% of Profile data we now know 4m is a conservative sales estimate. You could argue a few hundred thousand either way. It makes little difference to the overall picture. As important is monitoring new weekly profiles......which is currently between 55k-70k. Even if you half that figure for an average across the year, it's easy to see how GT Sport can sell over 5m by this coming December. And once again, it's worth pointing out Beta data is not included.

Thats the absolute best case scenario though. We know that some countries sell just a fraction of that.

Absolute numbers for each individual country isn't the issue. If Profile data is 100% accurate GT Sport is over 3.7m. If, as the UK seems to suggest, Profile data underestimates sales by up to 20%, GT Sport is already over 4m. Retail number cruncher and analyst ZhugeEX also states Profile data (for all games), tends to report smaller numbers than actual sales.

 

[HellzFire]

GTS did NOT sell more on US than the UK. Not even close. The game never charted on the NPD, not even on the launch month. GTS only featured on the top 10 list of digital sales from na psn once, on the launch month.

Forget this profile thing. I play on an american account but my game is brazillian for example.

Analysing sells by number of accounts is just wrong.

 

[sems4arsenal]

GTS did NOT sell more on US than the UK. Not even close. The game never charted on the NPD, not even on the launch month. GTS only featured on the top 10 list of digital sales from na psn once, on the launch month.

Forget this profile thing. I play on an american account but my game is brazillian for example.

Analysing sells by number of accounts is just wrong.

The US market is significantly larger than the UK. This thread is full of theories but no concrete evidence (aside from the 480K number in the UK). The game is probably withing the 2-3.5 million region but we need more information.

It's doing fine in Sony land (Europe) but the US market hasn't been kind at all.

 

[HellzFire]

The US market is significantly larger than the UK. This thread is full of theories but no concrete evidence (aside from the 480K number in the UK). The game is probably withing the 2-3.5 million region but we need more information.

It's doing fine in Sony land (Europe) but the US market hasn't been kind at all.

Not for racing games, it isnt.

 

[sems4arsenal]

Not for racing games, it isnt.

For big games, I'd say it is.

 

[SHGTP]

GTS did NOT sell more on US than the UK. Not even close. The game never charted on the NPD, not even on the launch month. GTS only featured on the top 10 list of digital sales from na psn once, on the launch month.

Forget this profile thing. I play on an american account but my game is brazillian for example.

Analysing sells by number of accounts is just wrong.

The US market is many times larger than the UK. A title that (relatively) performs poorly in that market will still sell more than the UK. Or any other European country for that matter. We are only talking over 500k sales in the US, previous GT's have sold millions (lifetime) in that market alone.

https://www.kudosprime.com/gts/stats.php?stat_preset=nb_players_by_country

Profile data is an excellent way to assess past, and ongoing, sales as it can be corroborated whenever we do get official sales data. Which we've had at various times from the UK, Germany, Spain, Japan etc. All we can say is, when comparisons have been made, sales data has always been 10%-20% ahead of Profile data.

https://www.kudosprime.com/gts/stats.php?stat_preset=nb_players_per_week

Keep in mind Kudos' data collection also undertracks actual GT Sport Profiles. They currently show 3.7m Profiles, while those who collect 100% of data (which is much more time consuming), are nearer 3.9m.

 

[HellzFire]

Mate, NPD is one of the biggest sources of sales.

GT Sport never even charted on the top 10. It did not even sold close to 480k like it did in the UK.

Forza 7 sold more on NA than GT Sport.

Forget the profile thing, it means little.

Historicaly, the biggest market for GT is europe, then asia, then america. Europe usually represents way more than half of all copies sold.

If you get the top 10 from NPD and from PS Blogs since october, GTS is not charting.

If i had to guess, i'd say it sold between 200-300k copies in north america.

 

[SHGTP]

For the record, GT Sport sold more retail units than Forza 7 on November NPD. However NPD charts are based on revenue, and thanks to special editions, Forza 7 generated more income.

Europe is GT Sports biggest market, but Europe consists of dozens of countries. Each, individually, sells much fewer copies than the US.

 

[Milouse]

Forget this profile thing. I play on an american account but my game is brazillian for example.

So you skewed the sales data, not the profile one, which is right in your case.

 

[AKps3]

GT Sport back in the UK top 10(at 9)
http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index....p&ct=110015&arch=t&lyr=2018&year=2018&week=15

 

[Donnced]

Mate, NPD is one of the biggest sources of sales.

GT Sport never even charted on the top 10. It did not even sold close to 480k like it did in the UK.

Forza 7 sold more on NA than GT Sport.

Forget the profile thing, it means little.

Historicaly, the biggest market for GT is europe, then asia, then america. Europe usually represents way more than half of all copies sold.

If you get the top 10 from NPD and from PS Blogs since october, GTS is not charting.

If i had to guess, i'd say it sold between 200-300k copies in north america.

Asia and Japan aren't the best markets for GT..
First market is Europe and second EEUU ..

Te best place to look sales are in the polyphony digital website.

They still didn't update the website with the GTS sales, but I think they should be lower than GT6 sales.

Kudosprime takes profile numbers, and for example meself got 3 profiles... But just one game and a second hand one.... So if the guy that got the game before me has also 1 or 2 profiles that make 1 game 4-5 profiles... Quite a difference between reality of game sales numbers for sure ..

 

[SlipZtrEm]

GT Sport back in the UK top 10(at 9)
http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/archive/index_test.jsp&ct=110015&arch=t&lyr=2018&year=2018&week=15

I mentioned the UK sales charts last week here:

Here's a surprise:
http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110015

FM7 is sitting in fourth in the UK last week, with GT Sport at 14th. Both moved up five spots from their previous positions.

However, it doesn't quite mean they're selling like hotcakes. Far Cry 5 retained its top spot, but sources say it sold something like 60% less in its second week than its first. That means the exact numbers for this most recent chart are probably all quite low. Nonetheless, it's good to see the racing games have some legs to them. 👍

I'm going to guess that Far Cry 5 retaining the top spot for the third week means its actual sales figures are no better than last week's (just better than everything else). So while it's good to see GT Sport (and all the other racing games) still charting six months later, it's unlikely that it's significant figures. Much like movies, these titles are front-loaded, with the majority of their sales happening in the first few months.

Racing games — specifically GT — tend to have longer legs than most other types (GTAV excepted), but I believe it's best to temper expectations. My guess still hovers around four million globally: still good enough for first or second in the genre outside of Mario Kart. Microsoft hasn't published FH3 sales figures, but it's likely that game has topped the Forza franchise this generation, and it still charts fairly regularly in the UK (likely due to console bundling, a la GT3).

That all said, I reiterate my statement in the above post: it's good to see multiple racing games doing well on the charts. Now if only we could get them for other regions...

 

[fastone371]

The other factor is people buying bundles who then don't play the game at all. I find it hard to believe that accounts for a large % though, most would at least try it. But then, didn't we have a bundle with FIFA and GTS in the UK? I know I have no interest whatsoever in FIFA, so....

Cmon, how can you honestly say you have no interest at all in your FIFA video game? I would be more than happy to take it off your hands, the disc makes a great little flying toy when tossed like a Frisbee!!!
If soccer suddenly ceased to exist world wide someone would need to inform me, I dont understand how a game that can last however long a soccer match lasts (I honestly dont know if they are 15 minutes long or 6 hours long) can be exciting when the final score can be 1-0. What was happening at all of the other time that a score was not happening???

 

[AlexDB9]

^ In no other sport a single point/goal means so much as in soccer. It's part of the appeal of the sport.