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Discussion in 'Gran Turismo Sport' started by Danisfast, Sep 24, 2017.
Patience of a saint
No one is even coming close to suggesting that NOBODY raced online in GT5/6 so why bring up that ridiculous premise? Before Quick Match came along I would often find less than 100 active lobbies online in GT6 during peak hours of Eastern Standard Time. With an average of 8 or 10 per lobby that barely adds up to 1000 people online. Considering the game sold 5 million units I think you'd have a hard time establishing your almost guarantee.
[Perspective of a GT owner since the very first GT1 demo became available] Whether or not it proves to be a mistake is yet to be seen, but I will not be making the purchase. Shame because there were many things I was looking forward to, but I'm not willing to make the PS4 purchase (don't have one) just for a game I'm not certain about. GT4 was a real high point for the franchise, in my opinion. From the UI, to the music, to the progression, to the gameplay...GT4 was just right. GT5 got close after tons of updates, and it captured my heart a little bit. But GT4 was legendary. Maybe they'll go back to that formula one day, if online gaming ever crests in popularity. Doesn't seem likely.
For the record I never bought GT6 and I played GT5 online maybe 3-4 times. The experience wasn't great.
A little perspective is needed. PCars sold a little over 1m lifetime on PS4 - 1.5m at the highend - while PCars 2 had a reported sales decline of 74% at UK retail in its first week. Judging by various sales charts and user feedback, it will suffer another huge drop this week. Lifetime I think it will struggle to break the 1m mark.
Over at Sony Evolution Studios where shuttered after Driveclub sold 2.5m on a PS4 instalbase of under 40m. PS4 is the market leader with an instalbase of 65m (75m by years end), and a lifetime target over 100m. With the huge analytical and marketing resources at Sony's disposal, they've analysed the market and deemed their online, service based, approach the best option to maximise the revenue potential of one of their premier franchises, Gran Turismo.
Gran Turismo pioneered the console sim, vast campaigns and car collecting. GT6 learned few lessons from GT5 and didn't fair well critically or with users. When in Sony's position you aim to lead market trends, shake-up your franchises, and once again become a pioneer. From this market position of strength you can see each of Sony's major franchises are either being overhauled or retired. I do believe this is the right direction for Gran Turismo and will be demonstrated in sales, critically and with unprecedented online participation and retention rates.
It's a case of only time will tell. But I've seen plenty enough evidence this gen to know the driving market is contracting at an alarming rate, and is some way behind other genre's, when it comes to embracing online and social features.
At the same time, while I do definitely agree with most of the post @AH49 (You seem to have done your homework instead of going about it half cocked like some on this forum do when it comes to the broader bit of business and racing games) you have to realize the contraction of the racing genre also can be attributed to the death of the A and AA developers and studio houses, and subsequently, indie developers having the lack of resources to pick up the slack. The era of Tokyo Xtreme Racer, Juiced, and etc from smaller publishers like Genki, THQ and others is gone. And indie developers simply cannot bear the load, especially when it comes to time, engine restraints, and most importantly, licensing agreements. If you are using real cars for example, like in the case of the two series I mentioned above, if you are even Chevy or Ford, manufacturers who almost always are pretty open with licensing agreements, why would you give your money to a bunch of kids making a racing game in their spare time?
To your point about the trends pointing towards what GT Sport has become, well yeah, it might be right from a business perspective, but what has been argued about, certainly by me, and others here in the forum is whether or not it will *actually* translate. The only other game that comes close to the way that GT Sport is going about this is iRacing, and while it might be successful enough to survive to this point, it helps that it is consistently hooking people for their money with subscription rates.
And here is the main issue: that very embracing of online and social features. I have said this many times before, but public sim racing lobbies, more often then not, are gong shows. From what I have seen of beta clips, a pithy little driver rating and ghosting opponents isn't going to do jack, and that's exacerbated by the fact that with the lack of career mode content, people are just probably going to ditch the game and not even bother with the online aside from surface level cursory glances.
Really, the decision to focus on online and esports exclusively and offer this lackluster content for single player just really reeks of Polyphony throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Really, they didn't need to focus on those two aspects exclusively, they could have just tried to once again fix the career mode using its competition to try and figure out where to do better, but if that's what Polyphony wants to do, or rather, what Sony has suggested they do, whatever.
There's no doubt that GT Sport will probably win the sales and possibly the critical reception war considering it's massive fandom, install base, and history behind it. What is the true test will be whether or not the players that buy the game retain the game, and what the online looks like 5, 10 months to a year from release. Believe me, when the casual sim player gets a hold of the game and sees the lack of single player content, and gets bored quickly with the online racing, there's going to be a lot of angry people. And that is usually what changes things.
Really? Do you know anyone who just blindly buys a game based on the name? Give the "casual" a bit of credit. At the minimum I'd say people at least check out what a game has before handing over the money for it.
That is why I am sure this game will not sell in anything like the numbers Sony/PD expect.
Project cars shifted 2.8 million units, it's a multi platform title and that can't simply be ignored.
The 74% drop also needs a few pieces of context, first it's not first week figures as they came out at the start of this week and second they don't include digital sales.
Not that any of that changes participation rates for the genre as a whole.
Time will tell, after all it's not as if the giant of market analysis that is Sony hasn't had quite a few misses in that regard to go along with the hits.
And what is GTS offering that other titles haven't to change that?
Umm, tough call.
Perhaps in time, if sales fall short, we may be able to say that, but even then it would probably be very difficult to quantify.
I think it's certainly a significant disappointment.
I doubt anyone is happy about the situation.
For some it may not mean much, and they couldn't care less either way.
But for others it's a huge factor, and possibly a deal breaker.
For me personally, I'm disappointed the traditional Career is gone.
I'm intrigued to see how far this new Campaign goes, and I'm mainly looking to play online.
But it's going to be weird not having Career Mode as the go-to offline feature.
I'm massively disappointed! Was waiting for GT for PS4 from the moment console was launched. As nice as it looks it's completely destroyed for me by the lack of career mode. I love sim racing but like to do it on my own terms. I don't have hours upon hours to spend online to earn enough "experience" to be paired with people who can drive and know what the racing etiquette is. Therefore I assume that for very long time I'll be forced to race in destruction derby style competitions. Also, what about people with bad or no internet connection?!?!
Needles to say, I won't be purchasing the game until price goes down significantly or its being given for free with PS Plus subscription...
I also predict PC2 sales to go up shortly after GT release.
I don't think it'll take long for clean drivers to get ranked up appropriately. My guess is that you'll need to drive very cautiously on your first day, and after that the system will match you with other equally clean racers.
There's a great YouTube series on how to get out of the rookie league in iRacing (but it's appropriate for all online racing sims) here:
As for the Internet requirement: yeah, I guess if you live on a farm in the middle of nowhere, that's going to be a problem. But hundreds of millions of people play games online, and lots of very successful online-only games exist, so there is a market for that. I wasn't in the beta, but I heard the online racing seems very smooth, so I wouldn't worry about network latency destroying the fun of racing.
My prediction is that GTS will do quite well and that a lot of casual racers will learn to enjoy racing online, and that it will become a preference over racing AI for a lot of people.
They may have looked, but that doesn't mean that they looked at them correctly. Numbers can be very misleading, intentionally or unintentionally.
Both the players that stick with the game and the ones that didn't paid money for it. Polyphony's goal is ultimately to sell copies. Just because the people that stick with the game long term tend to play online (and this isn't saying anything about how large a proportion of overall buyers they are) doesn't mean that it's optimal to make a game that entirely ignores the single player experience. Especially for a franchise that built it's name and reputation on single player.
I would say that success starts with convincing enough players that it's worth dropping $60 on the game. If a lot of players are turned off by the lack of single player content (and a lot of the comments that I see around the internet seem to indicate that this is the case) then the game will suffer. The online might be incredible, but if no one buys it because it failed to implement a simple career mode then I think that's a mistake.
It's not like adding a single player career is a particularly significant amount of extra work on the scale of the entire game. The lack seems to be an intentional design choice to "encourage" people to go online. I think it misses the point that people who aren't interested in online (or have other options that they consider superior) simply may not buy the game at all.
What will someone see with a casual glance? A campaign mode with 100+ events! Livery editor! Enhanced photo mode! FIA! 27 Layouts!! When they buy the game after a cursory glance and get it home and find out the focus of the racing is online that's when reality will set in. Don't forget, many will also arrive in the house through bundling and little Timmy and Tammy will end up with nowhere to race but online, never winning or coming close and getting frustrated by it as well. How many young racing fans would prefer, or their parents prefer, to simply race against slow AI that pretty much lets them win if they are even remotely close to the lead? Where no one yells at them for accidental contact or any other reason?
Don't have time to read the entire thread, so just adding my tuppence -
Fully agree with the OP. Gran Turismo has always been about Gran Turismo mode, so to shift the entire game in a different direction and remove the career completely is an odd move. Having said that, GT has been getting worse for years anyway. AI has always been appalling, damage virtually non-existent, career mode getting shorter and shorter, grind getting worse... it's like Kaz lives in his own wee bizarre bubble, has no idea how to make a good game any more, doesn't really care about the fan base. All that matters is the cars look perfect in photos, and the Nordschleife is a carbon copy of the real thing.
I never even considered pre-ordering GT Sport having been let down so much by GT5 and (even more so) GT6, and once I heard there was no real career mode to speak of I knew I would never buy it. GT Sport will look amazing, but it'll be a 1 out of 5 stars game.
I don't mind PD focusing on multiplayer but there should be something for those who don't like racing online as well. Event if it's just some custom events.
You really think the average casual does that? It's US. The members of a fan site that blindly buy OUR franchise. Normal people read reviews.
We've know, KNOWN, what this game is about since Copper box, and yet users of this site are still asking about this sort of thing in multiple threads.....
There's no such thing as an "average casual" other than as a statistical abstract. I'm suggesting that lots and lots of people who have known and loved the GT series through several iterations but are still just casual racers, and are going to simply see the name on the box and make it an instant buy because it's the latest game and they see a few marketing buzzwords on the cover and assume it's just a regular GT game. People buy games for a multitude of reasons. According to this 2015 study (page 12), reviews only account for 3% of the buying decision for videogames. I guess that means only 3% of people are normal?
All great points but it isn't all online for the casual players. There is going to be an offline custom 'arcade' mode to choose your car, AI, track and weather times of day to practice races and TTs on until ready online.
This is how I play and practice most of my racing games (not grinding) until I want to go online.
Those who will see GT on the box and buy it will drop it as soon as they realise its online only... But title will be selling and i suppose that's the PD aim
I don't think anyone buys purely on name without looking at anything else, no matter how big a fan. At the very least they scan the back of the box. Maybe they just buy it because of that, but there's likely to be a few red flags on the packaging for anyone expecting the usual sprawling GT experience.
They'll catch some people like that, maybe even quite a lot of people. But it's very hard for any dev to sell millions of copies on ignorance, and it's even harder when there's been numerous games in the last few years that have burned people for buying blind.
Still, I doubt that Polyphony will do a Bethesda and embargo reviews until after release. Potential purchasers will likely have a fair amount of content to hype them and demonstrate what the game actually is. Anyone enough of a fan to random purchase the game will likely have Google throw some advertising their way before release.
And "Product is a continuation of a favourite game series" is only 10%. Realistically, putting that sort of data as exclusive percentages is a terrible way to present the data, because for any given person they're affected by multiple of those factors.
It wouldn't surprise me if "traditional" reviews are pretty meaningless these days though. You can see actual gameplay with Let's Plays. If you're a fan of the genre, you probably have a streamer or Youtuber or two whose opinion you would value. If you're on PC, you essentially get 2 hours of free demo with anything on Steam.
I think it's probably fairly hard these days to actually get to the point where you're considering buying a game that you know nothing about but the box you're holding in your hand.
I would do. I would buy a dirty nappy if it had Gran Turismo writen on it.
Well, I'm eager to try that freakin' livery editor we all been waiting for ages. So, I'll buy the game, don't know if it'll be d1, but I'll get it.
I see. Well, there are people who make those jokes (which are kind of funny because despite being an exaggeration they're based on a kernel of truth), and there are people who lack even a modicum of common sense. There's all types in the world, I suppose.
But I'm not so sure that a Gran Turismo branded dirty nappy line would find great commercial success.
Gt5 Prologue was a MUCH better experience than GT5. Prologue was consistent across the board with great graphics, gameplay, and variety of events. GT5 was a mess...
Personally, I'm not fussed that the Career has been removed...I was tired of repeating the same mode again when GT6 released and preferred modes such as the Missions, Goodwood, Licence and others. I'm not sure how other feels but it's good what they've done.
GT SPORT seems to be more educational, much alike what GT4 Prologue was with it's Driving School mode.
Have you seen the AI at Brands Hatch?
The 2nd placed AI car is 10 seconds ahead of the 3rd placed AI car with what looks like another 10 second gap between 4th and 5th and
thats on the highest level!
Even after making a mistake on the 2nd lap with no AI car taking advantage the player quite easily finishes 3rd.
Now that's hardly an exciting challenge is it?
I wonder if there will be an option to toggle the aggression level of the AI because this just looks like a Sunday drive.
I think that it will be problematic at first, but it really depends on what can be earned in arcade mode and online. I have a feeling that there won't be enough money to be earned from these "campaign" mode challenges. I'm assuming arcade mode won't net you money so where would it be coming from? Once you get all gold on things you can just be stuck with no way to earn income. That shouldn't be based on online racing as many people may not partake in it.
I sense that either the campaign mode will come as DLC or there is more to the si god splayed campaign tha what we are currently seeing.
We have seen prize money shown for arcade mode in some of the preview footage.
I think career mode has changed model, now is like seasonnal events but better incorpored on a calendar beside FIA championship
Like real life, it marks by rendez-vous.
Now if our championships and other things just became seasonal events where you could win money and cars, possibly even duplicate cars with unique livery, that would actually be really fun and engaging. I would be on all the time to potentially win money and cars that wouldn't be available later. Especially if they put interesting criteria on the races such as group/power limits, country/brand limits and/or weight/style restrictions.
I've put a lot of hours in GT5 and I could never afford to buy cars like the Ferrari P3/4 even after all this time. I've been wanting a change ever since.
The economy better be balanced in GTSport.