The Threat From China - Real or Not?

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Last June, The Chinese Government released their new map.
china_conflict.jpg

chinas-neighbors-are-not-going-to-be-happy-about-this-new-map.jpg

Is this fair? What happened to China? What happened to the so called "laws"?
 
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I think the top map was a BBC infographic, wasn't it? And I'm pretty sure their territorial claims in those waters have fluctuated in that general size/shape since at leas the early 1970s.

China is invested too heavily in the US Treasury for them to go to war against them, it makes no sense.
 
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/28/conflict-us-china-not-inevitable-empire
To avoid a violent militaristic clash with China, or another cold war rivalry, the United States should pursue a simple solution: give up its empire.

Americans fear that China’s rapid economic growth will slowly translate into a more expansive and assertive foreign policy that will inevitably result in a war with the US. Harvard Professor Graham Allison has found: “in 12 of 16 cases in the past 500 years when a rising power challenged a ruling power, the outcome was war.” Chicago University scholar John Mearsheimer has bluntly argued: “China cannot rise peacefully.”
 
John Mearsheimer
That is a name I recognise. One of the big and respected authors in IR but a realist at the end of the day. Basically his entire world view revolves around the idea that every state is selfish and war is something that can't be avoided if there isn't a balance of power between states.
 
China essentially owns US Debt, they don't even need to go to war to be the ruling power.

The US on the other hand needs to basically go to war with China to ensure it doesn't happen.

China has also invested massively in the last 10 years on it's military.
 
http://news.yahoo.com/hacking-federal-data-much-worse-first-thought-194300783.html

On Friday, it was revealed that all of the data on Standard Form 86— filled out by millions of current and former military and intelligence workers— is now believed to be in the hands of Chinese hackers.

This not only means that the hackers may have troves of personal data about Americans with highly sensitive jobs, but also that contacts or family members of American intelligence employees living abroad could potentially be targeted for coercion. At its worst, this cyberbreach also provides a basic roster of every American with a security clearance.

"That makes it very hard for any of those people to function as an intelligence officer,” Joel Brenner, a former top U.S. counterintelligence official, told the AP. “The database also tells the Chinese an enormous amount of information about almost everyone with a security clearance. That's a gold mine. It helps you approach and recruit spies."
 
The Pentagon has confirmed that Chinese nationals have used laser weapons against US military aircraft operating over Africa, injuring pilots.


Pentagon Confirms Chinese Fired Lasers at U.S. Pilots
Incidents near Beijing's Djibouti military base injured American air crews flying nearby




Chinese People's Liberation Army personnel attend the opening ceremony of China's new military base in Djibouti / Getty Images


BY: Bill Gertz
May 3, 2018 2:15 pm

The Pentagon confirmed Thursday that Chinese nationals fired lasers near a military base in east Africa against U.S. military aircraft in the region, injuring several pilots.

Pentagon Press Secretary Dana White said the U.S. government made diplomatic protests to the Chinese government over several recent incidents of laser firings near China's first overseas military base at Djibouti.

"These are very serious incidents. There have been two minor injuries. This activity poses a threat to our airmen," White told reporters.

"We have formally demarched the Chinese government, and we've requested that the Chinese investigate these incidents," she added.

The number of incidents is "more than two but less than ten" and the laser firings took place in recent weeks, White said.

White said the Pentagon is confident that Chinese nationals were behind the laser firings but did not elaborate on the intelligence linking Beijing to the incidents.

She declined to speculate on the Chinese motive behind the laser attacks.

"I believe there have been cases where this has happened previously," White said. "But what this started was these last few weeks we decided to become very serious about it, and we have demarched the Chinese, and we've asked for the investigation."

China's government has not commented on the incidents. A Chinese military expert told the state-run Global Times newspaper that the U.S. accusations that China used a laser weapon in Djibouti was "groundless."

China opened the military base in Djibouti last year and plans to deploy some 400 troops there.

China's government has asserted that the base is merely a logistics hub for anti-piracy operations as well as to support China's international infrastructure project called Belt and Road Initiative.

The U.S. government regards the Chinese base as part of Beijing's efforts to project military power around the world.

The Djibouti incidents appear similar to the 1997 incident involving a Russian merchant ship that was shadowing a Navy missile submarine and fired a laser on a Canadian surveillance helicopter.
The laser damaged the eyes of the Navy Lt. Jack Daly and Canadian pilot Captain Patrick Barnes near Washington state and was covered up by the administration of President Bill Clinton.

China and the United States have battled over international trade and finance after the Trump administration announced it will impose tariffs on China for its unfair trade practices.

The U.S. and Chinese militaries also have squared off in the South China Sea where China is seeking to take control of the strategic waterway. The U.S. military has been seeking to counter the illegal claim by sending ships and aircraft near disputed islands in the sea that have been militarized in recent years by China.

A Federal Aviation Administration notice to airmen reported April 14 that "there have been multiple lazing events involving a high power laser" near the Chinese military base.

"Use extreme caution when transiting near this area," the notice states. "If a laser is seen in or near Djibouti, notify immediately tower…"

The notice also said U.S. military air crews were to contact military air controllers.

In one incident, air crew members flying aboard a C-130 transport suffered two minor eye injuries after exposure to what was described as "military-grade laser beams" that appear to have been fired from the Chinese base.

The laser incidents followed U.S. military exercises last month off the coast of Djibouti called Alligator Dagger. The exercise was canceled April 5 after two separate air mishaps, including the crash of a Marine Corps Harrier jump jet and a CH-53 helicopters, in Djibouti.

About 4,000 U.S. personnel are stationed at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti. The base has been used as a major launch point for U.S. military and special operations commando raids in the region.

The Chinese military base in the country is located about a mile from Camp Lemonnier and is Beijing's first overseas military base and has raised security concerns because it is located very close to the U.S. military base there.

The Washington Free Beacon disclosed in 2015 that China's military has deployed several types of hand-held blinding laser weapons.

The weapons, according to state-run Chinese media, are used to interfere and damage laser and night vision equipment.

Use of the weapons violates China's announced commitment to a section of the 1998 U.N. Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons that bans the use of blinding lasers in combat.

The Chinese have marketed four types of laser guns, designated the BBQ-905 Laser Dazzler Weapon, the WJG-2002 Laser Gun, the PY132A Blinding Laser Weapon, and the PY131A Blinding Laser Weapon.

Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, commander of the U.S. Africa Command, warned in congressional testimony in March that China is seeking to expand and possibly take over the strategic port in Djibouti, which owes Beijing an estimated $1.2 billion in construction debt.

China operates a naval port and "multi-purpose" port that offloads containers from freighters.

Waldhauser said a Chinese takeover of ports in Djibouti would have "significant consequences" for U.S. military operations there.

"We are not naive to think that some of the activities the Chinese are doing in terms of counterintelligence there are taking place, but it just means that we have to be cautious," Waldhauser told the House Armed Services Committee March 6. "We have to be on guard for that type of situation."
 
I think, China cannot into war. Despite of the efforts of Sun Tzu, Chinese can't fight properly - various parts of China speak different dialects and nobody ever managed to collect all these people into one army - or did, but just for a parade and to show off to Laowais. The only emperor who had collected 5 million soldiers for war with Korea, lost that army on the way because of hunger, diseases and thirst, and meanwhile the China itself was ravaged by revolution becoming an end of his dynasty. Besides, the Great Chinese Wall built to protect from the attacks of nomads, helped China to lose all remains of the war art. The Sino-Japanese wars confirmed it.

Do not underestimate your opponents. China might have spent most of its time fighting itself but they did engage wars of conquest and other empires or kingdoms. China faced Mongols, Manchus, Japanese, Koreans, Russians, Indians, Central Asian Turks, Arabs, Tibetans, Vietnamese, Portuguese and the Dutch.

Second Sino-Japanese war confirmed nothing. Despite Japan having the upper hand the war led to a stalemate all the time. Japan failed to decisively win that war you gotta remember China was in a civil war between the Nationalists and Communists alongside various warlords all vying for power.

Japan was throwing its men on various fronts for the Chinese it was no problem because they have endless manpower to keep the Japanese busy. Hence why the Pacific War would be Japan's downfall and them attacking the USA was their biggest most stupidest mistake. The battle of Khalkhin Gol proved to the Japanese its not worth fighting the Soviets they should have also known it was not worth fighting the Americans. Japan's stupid mistakes and fighting on numerous fronts is what doomed them not to mention their awful industry to sustain such a war on the long term.

I think China has learnt from their centuries of humiliation hence why they are trying to rise up and show that they mean business that the old China is history now a New China rises up.
 
Some internal wrangling amongst the leadership seems underway in China concerning their trade war with the US.

snippet:
A growing trade war with the United States is causing rifts within China's Communist Party, with some critics saying that an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the U.S. position, according to four sources close to the government.

President Xi Jinping still has a firm grip on power, but an unusual surge of criticism about economic policy and how the government has handled the trade war has revealed rare cracks in the ruling Communist Party.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/09/han...causes-rift-in-chinese-leadership-source.html
 
China denies claims a million Muslim Uighurs held in internment camps
The country is responding to concerns raised by a UN committee about a crackdown and strict controls in Xinjiang region.

skynews-uighur-muslims-uighur_4389028.jpg

Image:Muslims face regulations banning beards and veils. File pic

By Greg Heffer, news reporter

China has rejected claims one million of its mostly Muslim Uighur minority are being held in internment camps, while it has also insisted "there are no such things" as re-education centres.

The country responded to concerns, raised by a member of a UN human rights committee, that its Xinjiang region has been turned into "something resembling a massive internment camp, shrouded in secrecy, a sort of no-rights zone".
https://news.sky.com/story/china-de...lim-uighurs-held-in-internment-camps-11471917
 
China is a problem just as much as North Korea and Iran. But what are you going to do, start a war with them? Good luck winning that one.
 
In Australia we also believe China is now growing on our doorstep. With the numerous Pacific Islands like Fiji and Vanuatu used to be Australia's sphere of influence.

Australia is at a dilemma its either the USA or China.
 
Fleets of autonomous drones equipped with machine guns, missiles and bombs are currently reported being shipped by China to countries around the world.

Of course the US cannot allow a mineshaft gap.


upload_2019-2-10_2-28-21.jpeg


AK-47 installed on drone
 
China's economy is going to suffer a collapse within the next 20 years. I'll bet $3 on it. And not like, oh no the US economy has slowed a bit oh no, I mean like a straight up economic disaster.
 
China's economy is going to suffer a collapse within the next 20 years. I'll bet $3 on it. And not like, oh no the US economy has slowed a bit oh no, I mean like a straight up economic disaster.

Like Soviet Union economic collapse?
 
China's economy is going to suffer a collapse within the next 20 years. I'll bet $3 on it. And not like, oh no the US economy has slowed a bit oh no, I mean like a straight up economic disaster.

An interesting take you don't often hear, see or read.

China simply does what it wants to, irrespective of the rights and welfare of its workforce. That's how they get things done and done cheaply. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it collapsed not just because of an economic failure but also because of political change both within and from outside the country. Would it be a fair assumption to assume the same of China? That its economy will collapse and usher in a political upheaval? Perhaps political upheaval is what leads to the economic collapse, given that the current economy model only works through the brute force and stubborn will of the current system of government.
 
An interesting take you don't often hear, see or read.

China simply does what it wants to, irrespective of the rights and welfare of its workforce. That's how they get things done and done cheaply. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it collapsed not just because of an economic failure but also because of political change both within and from outside the country. Would it be a fair assumption to assume the same of China? That its economy will collapse and usher in a political upheaval? Perhaps political upheaval is what leads to the economic collapse, given that the current economy model only works through the brute force and stubborn will of the current system of government.
IMHO, the leaders of China are scared spitless of social unrest and rebellion against their leadership. Leadership is hoping that economic growth and prosperity will protect them from their worst nightmare. However, if I am right, malinvestment and burden of debt will do them in. Laughable "President-for-Life" Xi Jinping will join the ranks of all the other failed dictators. And in a lot less than 20 years.
 
An interesting take you don't often hear, see or read.

China simply does what it wants to, irrespective of the rights and welfare of its workforce. That's how they get things done and done cheaply. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it collapsed not just because of an economic failure but also because of political change both within and from outside the country. Would it be a fair assumption to assume the same of China? That its economy will collapse and usher in a political upheaval? Perhaps political upheaval is what leads to the economic collapse, given that the current economy model only works through the brute force and stubborn will of the current system of government.

IMHO, the leaders of China are scared spitless of social unrest and rebellion against their leadership. Leadership is hoping that economic growth and prosperity will protect them from their worst nightmare. However, if I am right, malinvestment and burden of debt will do them in. Laughable "President-for-Life" Xi Jinping will join the ranks of all the other failed dictators. And in a lot less than 20 years.
Yeah, they're currently dealing with a populace that has enough access to information that the jig is up. Propaganda doesn't work when the people can access worldwide information, and that's the main reason behind China's ever-increasing internet censorship. A problem is though that their people are so industrious that they simply figure ways around it. It's not like North Korea where the populace is so thoroughly brainwashed they rarely consider other opportunities, or Cuba where the people with tourist interactions understand the situation but maintain the status quo because it's easy. Chinese people are seeking as much success as they can possibly find and it's clashing with the government's effort to limit that advancement.

The Youtube channel I posted, ADVChina, shows some pretty glaring stuff. They've discussed the Silk Road thing lately. China was clever with their attempts at international influence - unlike the brute-force influence of imperialism, or the power and security projection of the US, they've decided to focus on economic influence. They've already managed to "colonize" half of Africa through unpayable debt and they're attempting the same thing when it comes to the Silk Road idea. Problem is, their own domestic economy is not sorted. While the US and other Western nations suffer from poverty in places and predictable side effects of capitalism, virtually all of China outside of cities is literally a third world country. And Chinese people can't even trust their own domestic industries because their get-rich-quick philosophy produces terrible quality products.

You can't project your influence if you can't even solve your own problems, and you don't allow your people to solve the problems themselves. They're going to fall hard and unfortunately drag several impoverished countries with them. Hopefully those countries will be able to escape when China's own debts implode but I have a feeling that process won't be peaceful.
 
Yeah, they're currently dealing with a populace that has enough access to information that the jig is up. Propaganda doesn't work when the people can access worldwide information, and that's the main reason behind China's ever-increasing internet censorship. A problem is though that their people are so industrious that they simply figure ways around it. It's not like North Korea where the populace is so thoroughly brainwashed they rarely consider other opportunities, or Cuba where the people with tourist interactions understand the situation but maintain the status quo because it's easy. Chinese people are seeking as much success as they can possibly find and it's clashing with the government's effort to limit that advancement.

The Youtube channel I posted, ADVChina, shows some pretty glaring stuff. They've discussed the Silk Road thing lately. China was clever with their attempts at international influence - unlike the brute-force influence of imperialism, or the power and security projection of the US, they've decided to focus on economic influence. They've already managed to "colonize" half of Africa through unpayable debt and they're attempting the same thing when it comes to the Silk Road idea. Problem is, their own domestic economy is not sorted. While the US and other Western nations suffer from poverty in places and predictable side effects of capitalism, virtually all of China outside of cities is literally a third world country. And Chinese people can't even trust their own domestic industries because their get-rich-quick philosophy produces terrible quality products.

You can't project your influence if you can't even solve your own problems, and you don't allow your people to solve the problems themselves. They're going to fall hard and unfortunately drag several impoverished countries with them. Hopefully those countries will be able to escape when China's own debts implode but I have a feeling that process won't be peaceful.
Having been watching ADVChina and Serpenza for years, the Chinese people just don't seem to care, so long as economic conditions are good they feel indifferent, a massive economic shock would probably change things very quickly though.

A stable economy makes the populace politically lazy, I would know being in Australia we Currently hold the record for the longest period without a recession and we as a society are exceptionally lazy in politics in Australia, your not going to see the country go up in arms because they make fuel prices rise for example, I doubt you would have anyone protest, we will just accept it.
 
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Having been watching ADVChina and Serpenza for years, the Chinese people just don't seem to care, so long as economic conditions are good they feel indifferent, a massive economic shock would probably change things very quickly though.

A stable economy makes the populace politically lazy, I would know being in Australia we Currently hold the record for the longest period without a recession and we as a society are exceptionally lazy in politics in Australia, your not going to see the country go up in arms because they make fuel prices rise for example, I doubt you would have anyone protest, we will just accept it.
The US is similar. Most people live comfortably so the most effort they'll put into politics is getting mad.
 
I am still surprised people accepted Xi Jingping appointing himself leader for life. The Communist Party hasn't actually worked in the long run anywhere it has ruled. Like people say, it always ends up in economic collapse or people get sick of it. Maybe people really are pissed about it and just don't say anything for fear of retribution, kind of like the USSR under Stalin. Hopefully if Chinese communism fails, it will fail everywhere in Asia as well.
 
I am still surprised people accepted Xi Jingping appointing himself leader for life. The Communist Party hasn't actually worked in the long run anywhere it has ruled. Like people say, it always ends up in economic collapse or people get sick of it. Maybe people really are pissed about it and just don't say anything for fear of retribution, kind of like the USSR under Stalin. Hopefully if Chinese communism fails, it will fail everywhere in Asia as well.
It's clearly not communism anymore though.
 
AK-47 installed on drone
Do these journalists call anything that fires full-auto and not made on the West an "AK-47"?

Do not underestimate your opponents. China might have spent most of its time fighting itself but they did engage wars of conquest and other empires or kingdoms. China faced Mongols, Manchus, Japanese, Koreans, Russians, Indians, Central Asian Turks, Arabs, Tibetans, Vietnamese, Portuguese and the Dutch.

Second Sino-Japanese war confirmed nothing. Despite Japan having the upper hand the war led to a stalemate all the time. Japan failed to decisively win that war you gotta remember China was in a civil war between the Nationalists and Communists alongside various warlords all vying for power.

Japan was throwing its men on various fronts for the Chinese it was no problem because they have endless manpower to keep the Japanese busy. Hence why the Pacific War would be Japan's downfall and them attacking the USA was their biggest most stupidest mistake. The battle of Khalkhin Gol proved to the Japanese its not worth fighting the Soviets they should have also known it was not worth fighting the Americans. Japan's stupid mistakes and fighting on numerous fronts is what doomed them not to mention their awful industry to sustain such a war on the long term.

I think China has learnt from their centuries of humiliation hence why they are trying to rise up and show that they mean business that the old China is history now a New China rises up.
I wrote the post you've replied to almost 5 years ago. And what I think now, is...

China is able to protect itself from a foreign invasion, with the world's most numerous armed forces and up to 3600 nuclear warheads. But it's not in the position to invade other states, especially those that are overseas. And it doesn't really need to. China can simply buy any resources it needs. The PRC gets oil and gas from Russia at bargain price. Some people fear that "China is overpopulated so it's greedy for terrtories". But India, that is 2.5 times smaller and has almost equal population, doesn't seem to behave like that.

But in what you said about the history you are quite right.

China's economy is going to suffer a collapse within the next 20 years. I'll bet $3 on it. And not like, oh no the US economy has slowed a bit oh no, I mean like a straight up economic disaster.
Why would you like to lose your three bucks like that? ;)

The growth of the Chinese economy has slowed down a bit just recently, but it's been growing like crazy for the last decade. TBH I'm not an economist but I have no idea what would cause China to break down soon...

Also... What is the most known category of America's goods? I think it's the electronics. Computers, iPhones and more. But what do I see written on them? "Made in China". So, IMO, if the US goes for a trade war with China, it's like...
7789782aa14614ebd936fe06de4741e5_i-28676.jpg
 
Do these journalists call anything that fires full-auto and not made on the West an "AK-47"?


I wrote the post you've replied to almost 5 years ago. And what I think now, is...

China is able to protect itself from a foreign invasion, with the world's most numerous armed forces and up to 3600 nuclear warheads. But it's not in the position to invade other states, especially those that are overseas. And it doesn't really need to. China can simply buy any resources it needs. The PRC gets oil and gas from Russia at bargain price. Some people fear that "China is overpopulated so it's greedy for terrtories". But India, that is 2.5 times smaller and has almost equal population, doesn't seem to behave like that.

But in what you said about the history you are quite right.


Why would you like to lose your three bucks like that? ;)

The growth of the Chinese economy has slowed down a bit just recently, but it's been growing like crazy for the last decade. TBH I'm not an economist but I have no idea what would cause China to break down soon...

Also... What is the most known category of America's goods? I think it's the electronics. Computers, iPhones and more. But what do I see written on them? "Made in China". So, IMO, if the US goes for a trade war with China, it's like...
7789782aa14614ebd936fe06de4741e5_i-28676.jpg
Although let's be real here a trade war between US and China hurts China significantly more, US consumers can get things made elsewhere in the world, China can't exactly replace it's main buyer of goods with another country that buys the same.
 
Do these journalists call anything that fires full-auto and not made on the West an "AK-47"?
The AK-47 set the standard by which all others ("assault rifles") are measured, as I'm sure you know. And I know the bar has been pushed slightly since this original was in production. But simply stated, it is an unavoidable icon.
 
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