This news is now a month old, but since I haven't had the time to post here in a while and I've not seen any mention of this rather important change yet, I'm going to share my thoughts. Biden has urged to make South Carolina the first state to vote in the Democratic primary in 2024, replacing Iowa.
After it botched the 2020 caucuses, Iowa is set to lose its coveted first-in-the-nation status. But Biden's recommendation that South Carolina go first quickly led to internal divisions.
www.nbcnews.com
In short, this is a very bad decision. At best, it is an earnest but misguided attempt to increase turnout amongst voters of color in the Democratic primary, and at worst, it is a deliberate attempt by Biden to secure himself as the 2024 nominee if he has a primary challenger, and inhibit more progressive democratic candidate's chances of securing the nomination for the future. Going back to the 2020 democratic primaries, South Carolina was the fourth state to vote after Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. South Carolina was also the first state Biden was able to win, after Sanders winning the aforementioned three, and Biden's own campaign admitting that he would drop out of the race if he could not win South Carolina. Why did Biden do well in South Carolina? Aside from getting a much needed help from South Carolina's own Jim Clyburn, Biden, a moderate Democrat, was the clear favorite amongst South Carolina democrats. South Carolina democrats, who are vastly outnumbered by Republicans as the state has been solidly Republican post-Southern Strategy, tend to be more moderate on both social and economic issues and are majority African-American, as is the case for Democrats in most other southern states. Biden, despite his past history of racist remarks and the 1994 crime bill, is popular amongst African Americans, and was the most moderate major candidate in the race, so it's not any surprise that he won South Carolina. While Sanders' campaign did well with Hispanic/Latino voters and more urban constituencies of African Americans, progressive/populist campaigns like this simply don't do well among Black constituencies in the south. And that's not the fault of Biden or the Democratic party; I will concede that progressive candidates need to improve their messaging among this fairly sizable portion of the party. Biden's said goal was to increase minority participation in the primary, something I agree with as Iowa is significantly more white than the US average, but South Carolina is simply not representative of the Democratic party. The fact that Biden is insisting on South Carolina when Georgia next door is even more racially diverse and is a place where Democrats now actually have a chance, suggests that there are motives beyond just promoting minority turnout.
If we're going to insist on certain states voting much before others, something I believe to be a flaw in the electoral system to begin with, I think Michigan is the best bet. Why? First, it is, and likely will remain a swing state. Why would it make sense for a state that leans in a direction significantly to the opposite of the Democratic party like South Carolina and now Iowa as it has moved further red, to lead the Democratic primary? That being said, it also wouldn't be fair for a Democratic stronghold like California or New Jersey to lead the primary either; ideally, it should be a state that's at least somewhat contentious and is diverse, which Michigan is, with a sizable African American, Arab American, and growing Hispanic population. Michigan also contains three of the Democratic Party's core constituencies: voters of color as aforementioned, college-educated suburbanites, and blue-collar workers. The types of Democrat in Michigan tend to be diverse both in terms of race/ethnicity and ideology. In addition to Michigan- Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona would make good, representative contenders for being the first state to vote in the Democratic primary.