Alright. Did some more strategy testing in custom races, mimicking the race settings that have been given to us. Run #1 was to fuel save with mediums and see if I could get 5 laps out of a tank while maintaining a decent pace. In typical "Green Hell" fashion, I had some moments of triumph as well as some close calls, but nonetheless, it was a solid stint. My lap times ranged from 8:21-8:19, and I finished with .1 laps of fuel in the tank. Total race time was 41:50.
Run #2 was to go like hell on Softs, and pit at the end of lap 3 for fresh tires and a splash of fuel. Lap times ranged from 8:12-8:15. Total pit stop time was 35 seconds from pit entry to first braking zone. Total time was 41:37.
I haven't done an official run on tire saving with softs to make it 4 laps, but from what I recall earlier, my fastest lap was a high 8:13, with my other laps being around 8:15-16, and my 4th lap was much slower. I originally said 10 seconds, but that might have been a tad generous. Not to mention that it was pretty damn sketchy. I think it would be fair to say, that in order to make 4 laps on softs, I would have to have my first 3 laps be in the 8:16 range, with the hopes of being able to pull an ~ 8:26 on the 4th lap. I'm sure I could stiffen up my suspension in hopes to get better tire wear, but as far as lap times would be concerned, I'm pretty sure it'll be a wash.
The advantage of going like hell on the softs for 3 laps, is you don't have to compromise your driving style and pace one iota. The disadvantage is it will take 3 pit stops, that will cost you an additional 1:10 from the one-stop on mediums. For arguments sake, lets just say my average medium tire lap times are 8:20 and my push soft laps are 8:14. Theoretically, you're going to come real close to making up the time of needing to do that 3rd pit stop at the end of 9.
One potential strategy I see working is going 3S, 3S, 4M. The extra pit stop compared to the 1-stop will cost you 35 seconds, and that last stint on mediums will cost you an additional 6 seconds a lap, for a total of 20 seconds.
Sooooooooooo........
Doing some very rough math, this is what I've figured out. Pit stop times are ~ 35 seconds to account for tires and splash of fuel
3S-3S-4M = 1:23.54 total race time. (You could probably subtract a few seconds from this time if you substitute in a 4-Softs variation and/or to compensate for being able to not have to worry about fuel saving for the entire 4M stint…as I used 8:20 for my average (medium tires) lap time.
5M-5M = 1:23.45 total race time
3S-3S-3S-1S = 1:24.05 total race time (you can probably subtract a couple seconds from this time as you won't need fuel on your last stop)
4S-4S-2S. = 1:24.06 total race time
Pretty incredible how close all these times are. Besides traffic, accidents, potential weather, etc. I think the biggest kicker is how good the person is at NBG. Someone that's REALLY GOOD here, will be able to make up even more time on softs. Granted, that same person will also be faster on mediums as well..... but there is a very finite line on how fast you can push the medium tires.