Back in Chapter 6 (or maybe 7? I'm not sure), when everyone in New Ponyville was trying to figure out what was going on, I saw the signs. The entire town was out for blood over what was sorta an accident, and they didn't even care that it might have been an accident. I knew when Soaren came out publicly in favor of the execution that it was going to happen. Rarity was basically a doormat, and Applejack (who is basically second in command to Rarity) was hugely in favor of it; so I knew nothing Twilight or Dash would say would make any difference.
At this point, I already basically knew that the Captain was Dark Dash, so I wasn't really worried about her (boy, I might as well put "Tempting Fate" in Size-7 italics). I was still working out who the Lieutenant was (I had a suspicion that it was Spitfire, but I didn't have any proof). Because I didn't yet know who she was, I was fairly sure that she was going to be a goner.
As I came to this conclusion, the wheels started turning in my mind about who the Lieutenant could be. And when Soaren was confronted by Dash about his decision, and I heard his back story, it clicked. He said Spitfire died in the riots and that is why he went on to fight for New Ponyville, and I knew. The tragic irony of the whole situation was simply too much to let it go to waste by making it be anyone else.
And then Chapter 8 came around. Spitfire and Captain Dash started talking to each other about Spitfire's role in the Shadowbolts. And I got this stupid, dumbass idea in my mind that it was going to be alright in the end. Something was going to happen that would reveal her identity to Soaren. Maybe her calling out to him to apologize, or him getting pissed and trying to find out who she was out of contempt. And the problem is, I convinced myself that it would be what would happen. I saw the warning signs. I knew it would be a cop out for it to be all happy. I knew I wouldn't write it that way if I was the author. And yet I still believed. Up until the last paragraph, I fully believed that something, anything, would intervene in the situation.
And then it didn't.