One more round of Manufacturer's to go. A look at the standings...
A quick rundown of where things will go in terms of which regions will be represented. Since there is a Top 16 race, all the top Manu point will be earned there:
Lexus - CSA is locked. According to my math, NA is also locked. They can be overtaken by Asia but EMEA can only tie and would lose the tiebreaker. 40 by Asia would guarantee them in.
Mercedes - CSA's only route to the last spot is getting a 40 without NA getting one. A tie would occur and CSA has the tiebreaker.
Toyota - All spots decided
BMW - EMEA locked in. All other regions still have a shot at the other two spots. Oceania must get a 40, however. NA in the strongest position since they have both the 2nd highest total score and lowest 5th best score to improve upon.
Porsche - All spots decided
Jaguar - All spots decided
Aston Martin - All spots decided
Ford - All spots decided
Alfa Romeo - NA and CSA locked in. EMEA can only get in with a 40 and Asia does not improve their current score by more than 1.
Hyundai - NA and EMEA locked in. If CSA does not improve, Asia needs a 36
(33 ties but they lose tiebreaker). Oceania can take spot with a 30
(it will tie but likely would win tiebreaker).
Audi - EMEA and Oceania locked in. NA needs at least a 33 if Asia cannot improve.
Chevrolet - Asia locked in. If NA cannot score a 40, CSA will be in. NA can score a 36 and take Asia's spot if they do not improve. My math shows EMEA is eliminated.
In terms of whether another Manu can take another Manu's spot, I tried to tinker with a few scenarios. All I have is:
Slowbaru - They have three strong drivers. If they all win their respective T16 race, they would be up to 681. They would still need one of the other regions to improve slightly on their rather low 5th score
and hope Chevrolet doesn't improve their score at all. Not impossible but the path is super narrow.
Madza - Asia has the possibility of getting a big score but all the other regions are huge question marks. If Barcelona is a really good Madza combo, then they can outperform and gather the necessary points.
Everyone else - Eliminated. The gap is too much at this point.