I've been reading a lot of complaining on different articles, and I wanted to share/get your take. Here are the foremost articles I speak of:
http://www.motorsport.com/nascar-cup/news/nascar-be-careful-what-you-wish-for
http://www.motorsport.com/nascar-cu...kenseth-advance-again-in-win-emphasized-chase
The new chase format is excellent. Why? Look at the 4 people that have won in the chase so far: Logano, Keselowski, Gordon, and Harvick. Of those 4, the Penske gents won in each round. They also won 3, 4, 3, and 2 races in the regular season respectfully (nearly 50% of ALL the races). Those 4 are the class of the field in the second half.
People complain that Johnson and Jr. were knocked out, but they weren't racing very well (Johnson averaged 19.4 place finish in the last 15 races, 15.9 for Jr.). Jr. fans: Dale may be a great driver, but he's scored less points in the last 6 races than AJ Allmendinger- does that end that discussion about vying for the cup? Does for me.
More people complain that Newman and Kenseth haven't won. Well, they know the rules. Don't worry about Newman, even if he makes the final 4, he just about cannot win--- and this is barring whether he actually makes the next round with his penalty looming (as per above). 3 top 5's in 30+ races? That's not going to win him the cup. Kenseth is ranked 3rd with top 5's and top 10's (to Keselowski and Logano: Surprise?!). No one said that the Championship winner has to win Homestead, but it makes it reasonable.
Does someone want to complain about Carl? or Hamlin? Go ahead, but they've hung on... better than those that "should have made it". That's racing. They could get hot, but I won't count on it.
My prediction: I have 3 folks in mind based on their racing this year, last 10 races, and in the chase. Gordon, Logano, and Keselowski. Surprise... they have the most wins (the point of this new system). I will be surprised if at least 2 of them do not make it to the final. The winner: Brad Keselowski. Why? He's won the most and he's good at all of the remaining tracks. 4 top 10's at Martinsville since 2012, 8th place average finish with 2 top 6's in the last 4 Texas races, and 3 top 5's with a lowest finish of 11th at Phoenix since 2012. He could win at any or all of these locations. Finally, Homestead: 6th last year and I think he could have contended for the win if Johnson didn't crash in 2012. Also, he's won 3 times on 1.5 miles tracks already (Las Vegas, Kentucky, and Chicago).
If Brad doesn't win, I think Gordon will pick it up at Homestead.
My darkhorse? Carl Edwards. If he makes it into the final, he's dangerous. He knows how to drive hard at Homestead, he's done this before (losing to Stewart in 2011), and I don't think he'll let it happen again.
